Author & Editor: Monkey

1. Bitcoin Market

Bitcoin Price Trend (2025/10/25-2025/10/31)

Consolidation Phase (October 25 to October 26)

On October 25, Bitcoin's price gradually rose from $110,000 to around $112,000. On October 26, Bitcoin's price consolidated around the $111,600 level.

Reasons for the Trend:

1. Improvement in Macroeconomic Expectations

The market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in the near future, reducing the opportunity cost of holding risk assets. At the same time, the easing of US-China trade tensions and the decrease in tariff risks provide positive sentiment support for risk assets (including Bitcoin).

2. Structural Technical Breakthrough

Bitcoin broke through the 50-day moving average (SMA50), which the market viewed as a signal of "short-term trend shifting from consolidation to upward." After breaking through the key resistance zone (around $112,000--$114,000), it triggered leveraged short liquidations, and this type of "short squeeze" usually accelerates the breakout trend.

Rally Phase (October 26 to October 27)

On the evening of October 26, Bitcoin broke through the $112,000 resistance level, rising close to $114,000; on October 27, it continued to break through the $114,000 resistance level, rising to around $116,000.

Reasons for the Trend:

1. Short Liquidations Triggering the Rally

CoinGlass data shows that approximately $319 million in short positions were forcibly liquidated on the evening of October 26, the highest level in nearly three weeks.

After breaking through the key resistance level, stop-loss and forced liquidations were triggered, forming a "short squeeze," which passively pushed the price up.

After breaking through $114,000 on October 27, a second round of short liquidations triggered a chain reaction, accelerating the price increase.

2. Positive Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors

Increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts: The market expects that the meeting on October 29 will release dovish signals or initiate rate cuts, increasing liquidity.

Improvement in US-China trade relations: On October 26, US and Chinese representatives held constructive economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, alleviating trade tension concerns.

These two factors enhanced the global risk appetite for assets, making Bitcoin a focal point for capital allocation.

3. Technical Breakthrough and Market Sentiment Shift

The price stood above the SMA50, triggering trend-following funds and retail buy orders to enter the market simultaneously.

The Fear & Greed Index rose from "neutral" to "greed," indicating increased investor confidence and forming a bullish atmosphere.

Continued Downward Phase (October 28 to October 31)

On October 28, Bitcoin slightly retraced to around $114,000 for support, then briefly rose to $116,000 before starting a continuous downward trend. On October 29, it fluctuated around $113,000; on October 30, it continued to decline with increased volatility, closing near $108,000; on October 31, it broke below the $108,000 support level, hitting a weekly low of $106,398.

Reasons for the Trend:

1. Weak Expectations for Policy/Monetary Easing

On October 30, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut but indicated uncertainty about further cuts in the future. This "dovish yet hawkish" statement quickly cooled market sentiment, putting pressure on risk assets. The market believed that "the good news has been priced in" or that "the next rate cut is still far off," leading to pressure on risk assets.

2. Profit-Taking and Realization of Gains

After the breakout on October 26-27, the market saw some profit-taking, especially when the price approached $116,000, leading bulls to lock in profits and some leveraged positions to be liquidated.

The "sell-the-news" phenomenon was evident, where selling pressure was triggered after the good news was announced.

3. Cautious Capital Structure and Liquidity

Although institutional funds flowed in, there was a lack of consensus on large-scale buying, leading to a strong wait-and-see sentiment.

Data shows that approximately $1.1 billion in long positions were liquidated on October 30, further exacerbating downward pressure.

Wide Fluctuation Phase (October 31)

On October 31, Bitcoin fell to the weekly low of $106,398 before rebounding to $109,931, facing resistance near the $110,000 level and then retreating to $108,677. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin's price was reported at $108,923.

Reasons for the Trend:

1. Technical Factors

When it dipped to $106,398, it touched recent short-term support, attracting low-level buying.

The $110,000 level serves as a significant psychological and technical resistance, with multiple failed attempts to break through, creating pressure.

Short-term moving averages are intertwined (near the 50-day and 200-day moving averages), leading to mixed short-term signals and a stalemate between bulls and bears.

2. Capital Factors

The deleveraging phase during the downturn has not fully ended, with short-term capital repeatedly entering and exiting at low levels, resulting in wide fluctuations.

During the rebound, some short stop-losses were triggered, quickly pushing the price back up to $109,931, but the short pressure above still exists, limiting further breakthroughs.

Summary

In the past week (from October 18 to October 24, 2025), Bitcoin exhibited a market rhythm of "initial consolidation → strong breakout → short liquidations accelerating the rise → profit-taking pullback → wide fluctuations." The price mainly operated within the range of $106,398 to $116,000, with significant overall volatility, indicating that the market's short-term trend is unstable and shows signs of capital gaming.

2. Market Dynamics and Macroeconomic Background

Capital Flow

1. ETF Capital Dynamics

This week's Bitcoin ETF capital flow:

October 27: +$149.3 million

October 28: +$202.4 million

October 29: -$470.7 million

October 30: -$488.4 million

ETF Inflow/Outflow Data Image

Data shows that the first two days had net inflows, followed by two days of significant net outflows, indicating increased short-term capital volatility. The large net outflows in the latter two days were closely related to macro policies, as Powell stated on October 29 that "a December rate cut is not a certainty," weakening market expectations for rate cuts and causing institutions to cautiously reduce their ETF exposure. Overall, ETF inflows/outflows have shown significant short-term volatility, but combined with on-chain and exchange capital flows, institutions still maintain a certain level of holdings, confirming that the market is still in a "reduced selling pressure + accumulation of holdings" phase.

2. On-Chain Capital Flow

The supply ratio of profitable coins has rebounded: CryptoQuant analyst Axel stated that the supply ratio of Bitcoin in profit (30-day change) has risen from -12% to -6%, indicating that selling pressure is weakening and there are buying opportunities at lower levels. Although the ratio of profitable coins is still lower than a month ago, negative momentum has significantly narrowed.

Exchange on-chain flow: During the period from October 25 to October 31, many exchanges showed that BTC net outflows exceeded inflows (taking Binance as an example, the 30-day SMA is negative), indicating that holders are more inclined to leave exchanges rather than sell, enhancing the willingness to accumulate funds.

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3. Exchange and Market Capital Flow

Spot trading is active: Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin's spot trading volume reached $300 billion in October, with Binance accounting for 58%. After the market correction, traders shifted from risk markets to spot markets, indicating that there is still active buying and selling demand in the market.

Options expiration events: On this Friday (October 29, 16:00 Beijing time), 127,000 BTC will expire, with a nominal value of $14.42 billion and a maximum pain point of $114,000, with a put/call ratio of 0.76. Ethereum options will expire with a nominal value of $2.56 billion and a maximum pain point of $4,100, with a put/call ratio of 0.7. Such large expiration events typically have a certain impact on short-term capital flow and price volatility.

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4. Credit and Institutional Capital Flow

BTC lending market is warming up: Ledn reported that this year, loan issuance has surpassed $1 billion, with $392 million in BTC mortgages issued in the third quarter, generating an annual recurring income of $100 million. As of the end of September, Ledn's loan scale reached $836.2 million, with an average LTV of 42.7%, and has released proof of reserves. Data shows that holders are obtaining liquidity through BTC mortgages, indicating that market liquidity demand remains, and the credit market is gradually warming up.

Technical Indicator Analysis

1. Relative Strength Index (RSI 14)

According to Bitbo data, as of October 31, 2025, Bitcoin's 14-day RSI is 50.59. The RSI index is in the neutral zone (around 50), showing neither significant overbought (>70) nor oversold (<30), indicating that the current bullish and bearish forces in the market are relatively balanced.

From recent trends, the RSI has been fluctuating around 50, showing that Bitcoin's short-term trend lacks a clear direction, and investor sentiment is leaning towards wait-and-see. If the RSI can steadily break above 60, it may indicate an increase in short-term upward momentum; conversely, if it falls below 45, the short-term pressure risk will increase.

Bitcoin 14-day RSI Data Image

2. Moving Average (MA) Analysis

MA5 (5-day moving average): $111,586

MA20 (20-day moving average): $114,366

MA50 (50-day moving average): $115,053

MA100 (100-day moving average): $115,692

Current price: $109,244

MA5, MA20, MA50, MA100, M200 Data Image

The current price is below all short- and medium-term moving averages, indicating that Bitcoin is under short-term downward pressure.

The arrangement of MA5 < MA20 < MA50 < MA100 is a bearish arrangement, with a clear downward trend in short-term moving averages and insufficient bullish momentum in the short term.

If the price can break through the MA20 near $114,366 again, it may open up short-term rebound space and further attack the key MA50 and MA100.

Combining with long-term moving averages, if Bitcoin's price remains above MA100, there is still support in the medium term, but the current price is significantly deviated, and attention should be paid to the risk of a technical rebound or pressure drop.

3. Key Support and Resistance Levels

Support Levels: In the short term, Bitcoin's key support areas are mainly at $106,000 and $108,000.

Resistance Levels: Short-term resistance is mainly concentrated at the $109,000 level, with higher resistance levels at $112,000, $114,000, and $116,000. Breaking through these resistances may bring new upward momentum.

The current price is close to short-term resistance levels, and the market may face short-term fluctuations or slight pullbacks.

Market Sentiment Analysis

As of October 24, the Fear & Greed Index reported 31 points, in the "fear" zone, indicating that overall market sentiment is cautious and bearish.

Looking back at the week (October 25 to October 30), the daily values of the Fear & Greed Index were: 34 (fear), 36 (fear), 42 (neutral lower edge), 42 (neutral lower edge), 39 (fear), 34 (fear). The overall range operated between 34 and 42 points, continuing to fluctuate at low levels, with the market lacking significant optimistic sentiment.

Analysis shows that fear sentiment is dominant. Combining technical indicators and sentiment indices, the market is still in a wait-and-see and fluctuation phase. Short-term operations should focus on support and resistance levels to avoid chasing highs.

Fear and Greed Index Data Image

Macroeconomic Background

1. Federal Reserve Meeting on October 28-29

At the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on October 28-29, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized in the press conference that while this rate cut was expected, the next rate cut (such as in the December meeting) is by no means "set in stone."

Additionally, the meeting minutes and announcements indicated that the Federal Reserve plans to end its balance sheet reduction (Quantitative Tightening, QT) starting December 1, meaning it will stop further reducing its securities holdings.

In the market, after the announcement, the dollar index rebounded, bond yields (especially mid-term) rose, while Bitcoin briefly rebounded before falling back.

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2. Fluctuations in Geopolitical Relations

Around October 25, senior officials from both sides held talks in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, where the US and China reached signs of a "framework agreement" in areas such as tariffs, rare earth export controls, agricultural product procurement, and control over digital platforms (such as TikTok). US Treasury officials stated that China agreed to delay the implementation of a new licensing system for rare earth exports; the US also suspended the threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. This temporarily boosted market risk appetite.

Subsequently, on October 30, Trump and Xi Jinping met in Busan, South Korea, announcing a substantial cooperation framework: the US will reduce average tariffs from about 57% to 47%, China will resume purchases of US soybeans and delay the implementation of rare earth export restrictions, and both sides committed to cooperating in combating the influx of precursor chemicals for fentanyl. Although these results do not constitute a comprehensive trade agreement, they significantly reduce the risk of an "escalation of a full trade war."

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3. Mining Dynamics

Hash Rate Changes

In the past seven days, the Bitcoin network hash rate has shown overall fluctuations, maintaining a range of 1032.58 EH/s to 1281.76 EH/s this week, at relatively high levels.

From a trend perspective, although the overall network computing power remains high, the volatility has increased, reflecting that some large mining farms are flexibly adjusting operations against the backdrop of fluctuating electricity prices and operating costs. Recently, temperatures in some areas of North America have dropped, and electricity supply and demand have stabilized, allowing some mining companies to restore more computing power; at the same time, some small and medium-sized miners have chosen to temporarily shut down high-energy-consuming equipment due to rising energy costs and the phase of Bitcoin's price consolidation, resulting in short-term fluctuations in overall computing power.

Weekly Bitcoin Network Hash Rate Data

As of October 31, the total network computing power reached 1.14 ZH/s, with mining difficulty at 155.97 T. The next difficulty adjustment is expected to occur on November 12, with an estimated decrease of about 0.52%, bringing the difficulty to approximately 155.16 T. The current mining difficulty of 155.97 T is at a relatively high level for the past three months. Since early August, except for the first half of October, mining difficulty has shown a continuous upward trend, reflecting the ongoing launch of new generation high-performance mining machines and the expansion of network computing power. The next adjustment is expected to show a slight decrease, reflecting the phased exit of some computing power under high difficulty and energy consumption pressure.

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Data

Miner Revenue

According to YCharts data, this week Bitcoin miners' average daily total revenue (including block rewards and transaction fees) fluctuated between $46.37 million and $59.56 million.

October 25: $58.06 million

October 26: $52.69 million

October 27: $55.38 million

October 28: $59.56 million

October 29: $46.37 million

Overall, miners' revenue this week remained roughly flat compared to the previous period, with the overall profitability of the mining industry remaining stable.

4. Policy and Regulatory News

Bank of Ghana: Plans to Implement Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Regulation by the End of 2025

On October 25, it was reported that the Bank of Ghana announced plans to formulate regulations related to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies by the end of 2025, making Ghana the ninth African country to adopt digital asset laws. (Bitcoin Archive)

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South Korean National Assembly Proposes Bill to Include Stablecoins in Foreign Exchange Trading Law Regulation

On October 28, it was reported by Yonhap News that Park Sung-hoon, a member of the Korean National Power Party, will propose an amendment to the Foreign Exchange Trading Act to include stablecoins within the legal definition of payment methods.

The bill aims to amend the definition section of Article 3, placing stablecoins alongside government-issued currency, banknotes, and coins as payment methods. Member Park stated that while the potential for stablecoins, which are pegged to the value of fiat currency, to serve as new payment methods is recognized, their nature differs from existing fiat currencies, leading to regulatory blind spots that could facilitate illegal foreign exchange trading and tax evasion through stablecoins. The Bank of Korea has also expressed similar concerns, pointing out that dollar-pegged stablecoins could be used for cross-border current account and capital transactions without the declaration procedures stipulated by the Foreign Exchange Trading Act, warning that the spread of stablecoins could make it easier to evade foreign exchange regulations. The Ministry of Planning and Finance of South Korea has expressed support for this bill, stating that it is in discussions with the Financial Services Commission, the central bank, and other relevant institutions regarding specific regulatory plans.

German Alternative for Germany Party Urges Government to Recognize Bitcoin as a Strategic Asset

On October 29, it was reported by Cointelegraph that the main opposition party in Germany, the Alternative for Germany Party (AfD), has submitted a formal motion to the Bundestag opposing excessive regulation of Bitcoin. The motion, submitted on October 23, argues that Bitcoin is fundamentally different from other crypto assets and should not be included in the European unified regulatory framework for crypto assets (MiCA).

The AfD pointed out in the motion that the current tax treatment of Bitcoin is generally positive, but there is still legal uncertainty that hinders long-term private investment. The party also calls on German lawmakers to consider recognizing Bitcoin as a national reserve strategic asset and advocates maintaining the current 12-month holding period for tax-free gains, keeping Bitcoin exempt from value-added tax, and ensuring individuals' self-custody rights.

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5. Bitcoin News

Global Corporate and National Bitcoin Holdings (This Week's Statistics)

1. El Salvador

On October 26, it was reported that El Salvador added 8 Bitcoins in the past 7 days, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to 6,361.18 BTC, valued at approximately $710 million.

2. Prenetics (US-listed Company)

On October 25, it was reported that Prenetics launched a public offering of Class A common stock and warrants to strategically increase its Bitcoin holdings, holding 272 BTC as of October 24.

On October 28, it was reported that Prenetics completed $48 million in oversubscribed financing, planning to purchase 1 BTC daily, aiming to achieve $1 billion in assets within five years.

3. B HODL (UK-listed Company)

On October 26, it was reported that B HODL announced the addition of 6 Bitcoins, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to 148 BTC.

4. Bitplanet (Korea-listed Company)

On October 27, it was reported that Bitplanet launched a daily Bitcoin accumulation plan, purchasing 93 BTC last week, with a future goal of establishing a Bitcoin treasury of 10,000 BTC.

On October 29, it was reported that the company spent $1.09 million to acquire 9 BTC, raising its total holdings to 110.67 BTC.

On October 30, it was reported that it added another 9 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 119.67 BTC.

5. American Bitcoin Corp. (NASDAQ: ABTC)

On October 27, it was reported that American Bitcoin increased its holdings by 1,414 BTC, bringing its total holdings to approximately 3,865 BTC, sourced from mining and strategic purchases.

6. OranjeBTC (Brazil-listed Company)

On October 27, it was reported that OranjeBTC spent approximately $774,000 to acquire 7 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 3,708 BTC.

7. Prenetics (US-listed Company)

On October 27, it was reported that it completed $46.8 million in oversubscribed equity financing to expand its global health brand IM8 and accelerate its Bitcoin treasury strategy, planning to purchase 1 BTC daily, aiming for $1 billion in revenue and Bitcoin holdings within five years.

8. Strategy (MicroStrategy)

On October 27, it was reported that Strategy spent approximately $43.4 million to acquire 390 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 640,808 BTC.

9. French Parliament (UDR Party Proposal)

On October 28, it was reported that the French Parliament proposed establishing a national strategic Bitcoin reserve plan, aiming to hold approximately 420,000 BTC (2% of total Bitcoin supply) within 7-8 years.

10. Hyperscale Data (NYSE-listed)

On October 28, it was reported that Hyperscale Data announced an expansion of its Bitcoin treasury to $68.8 million, with its subsidiaries holding approximately 194.5 BTC and planning to continue increasing holdings.

11. Strive (BTC Treasury Company)

On October 28, it was reported that Strive increased its holdings by 72 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 5,958 BTC.

12. ZOOZ (NASDAQ-listed Company)

On October 28, it was reported that ZOOZ spent $10 million to acquire 94 BTC, raising its total Bitcoin holdings to 1,036 BTC.

13. Universal Digital (Canada-listed Company)

On October 28, it was reported that Universal Digital announced plans to raise $50 million through the issuance of convertible bonds to further increase its Bitcoin holdings, with the accumulation plan currently underway.

14. Vanadi Coffee (Spain-listed Company)

On October 29, it was reported that Vanadi Coffee increased its holdings by 2 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 119 BTC.

15. Coinbase (US Exchange)

On October 31, it was reported that the third quarter net income was $433 million, with total revenue of $1.9 billion. The company added approximately $299 million in Bitcoin during the quarter, currently holding 14,548 BTC (valued at approximately $1.6 billion).

Tom Lee: Believes there will still be a wave of upward movement before the end of the year, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both turning positive technically

On October 25, Tom Lee stated in an interview with CNBC: "The crypto market has gone through a massive deleveraging event, caused in part by tariffs and trade friction, which is the most severe liquidation event in the crypto industry in the past five years. The chain reaction after this event is still ongoing, and two weeks later, pessimistic sentiment still lingers, but I believe these phenomena are about to end, as the contract positions for both Bitcoin and Ethereum are at historical lows, and both are technically turning positive. Therefore, I also believe that cryptocurrencies will experience a wave of upward movement before the end of the year. Recently, JPMorgan also stated that it may accept cryptocurrencies as collateral in the future, which is very helpful for market confidence."

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ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Indicates Bitcoin Cycle May Extend Beyond Historical Levels

On October 26, it was reported that the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI has historically been highly correlated with major peaks in the Bitcoin market cycle—if this pattern reoccurs, it may indicate that the current Bitcoin cycle will last longer than previous ones.

The correlation between ISM PMI and Bitcoin (BTC) price ($111,582) was initially promoted by Raoul Pal of Real Vision and later recognized among crypto analysts focusing on macro trends.

Analyst Colin Talks Crypto pointed out: "The peaks of the last three Bitcoin cycles have generally aligned with this monthly oscillating index." He noted that there is a recurring overlap between Bitcoin market peaks and PMI cyclical peaks.

If this relationship holds, Colin added, "it would mean that the duration of the Bitcoin cycle could be significantly longer than the historical average."

Standard Chartered: If progress is smooth this week, Bitcoin may never drop below $100,000 again

On October 27, it was reported by The Block that Standard Chartered stated, "If progress is smooth this week," Bitcoin may never drop below $100,000 again. Analyst Geoffrey Kendrick pointed out that the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has risen slightly above previous levels, which compares Bitcoin's market value to that of gold and rises as Bitcoin's market value increases.

Another key signal of renewed market strength is that spot Bitcoin ETFs will see new capital inflows. If even half of the funds flow back into Bitcoin ETFs from Monday to Wednesday this week, it would be a strong signal of market sentiment recovery. In recent weeks, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have lagged behind those of gold ETFs, "and need to catch up."

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Kyrgyzstan Announces Allowing Banks and Financial Institutions to Custody Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies

On October 27, it was reported that Kyrgyzstan announced that it would allow banks and financial institutions to custody Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

Author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad": Currently Holds Millions of Dollars in BTC, Predicts Its Price Will Double to $200,000 This Year

On October 29, Robert Kiyosaki, the author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," shared his views on Bitcoin on his social media platform. Kiyosaki stated that he currently holds millions of dollars in BTC and predicts that the price of BTC will double this year, possibly reaching a high of $200,000.

Kiyosaki stated, "When his friends look at the account, they only focus on the hundreds of thousands of dollars in losses, ignoring the millions of dollars in gains. He believes this psychological difference is the key distinction between the rich and the poor and middle class, which he calls emotional intelligence (EQ). The poor and middle class are poor because their fear of failure outweighs their desire for success; emotional intelligence is more important than IQ in the world of money. Successful wealthy individuals understand how to respect both 'fear' and 'greed' and can rationally control them."

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Michael Saylor: Bitcoin has Clearly Positioned Itself as Digital Gold, and Its Price Will Continue to Rise

On October 29, Michael Saylor, co-founder of MicroStrategy, revealed in a recent interview that Bitcoin has clearly positioned itself as digital gold, serving as a means of value storage. He mentioned that since the US government approved Bitcoin ETFs last year, a consensus on Bitcoin as digital gold has gradually formed, and the crypto summit in March further solidified this view.

He also pointed out that credit backed by gold used to dominate the Western monetary system, and as digital capital, Bitcoin's upper-level digital credit tools are also rapidly developing. Additionally, he mentioned the rapid growth in the digital finance sector over the past year, including the tokenization of currencies, stocks, bonds, and other real-world assets, which has provided significant momentum for proof-of-stake networks like Ethereum.

He emphasized that the degree of institutional acceptance of Bitcoin is a key factor in the future development of the industry. Recently, several major banks, including JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, have adjusted their crypto policies to begin accepting Bitcoin and Ethereum as collateral, marking a significant shift in traditional financial institutions' attitudes towards crypto assets.

Michael Saylor: Predicts BTC Will Reach $150,000 by Year-End, with a Future Target of $1 Million in 4-8 Years

On October 29, it was reported by Bitcoin Magazine that Strategy founder Michael Saylor made a recent Bitcoin price prediction in an interview with CNBC, stating it will reach $150,000 by year-end, with a future target of $1 million in 4 to 8 years.

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Arthur Hayes Comments on Japan's Economic Policy, Predicting Bitcoin Will Reach 200 Million Yen, About $1.3 Million

On October 30, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated: "The Bank of Japan issued a statement, 'Given the increasing uncertainty of domestic political conditions and the global economic weakness indicated by the Federal Reserve's continued rate cuts, we believe it is best to maintain existing policies to further drive inflation (without specifying its measurement indicators) to reach our 2% target.' Translated, this means that Bitcoin's price will reach 200 million yen (approximately $1.3 million).