Morning Report | Cryptocurrency market declines for three consecutive days; Blockchain.com plans IPO in 2026; Circle launches xReserve interoperability infrastructure
Overview of Important Market Events on November 18整理：ChainCatcher
Important News:
- Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin may first drop to $80,000-$85,000, then surge to $200,000-$250,000 by year-end
- Data: Crypto market has fallen for three consecutive days, with Layer2 sector leading the decline by over 7%, ETH briefly dropped below $3,000
- Economist Hong Hao posts on Xiaohongshu: BTC will only have "effective support" if it drops to the $7,000 range
- Platforms like X and Cloudflare experience outages, suspected to be due to a Cloudflare attack
- Blockchain.com plans IPO in 2026
- US Senators call for investigation into Trump family-linked crypto company World Liberty Financial
- Wintermute founder: The real problem in the industry is that exchanges concentrate powers like brokerage, order placement, and custody
What important events have occurred in the past 24 hours?
Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin may first drop to $80,000-$85,000, then surge to $200,000-$250,000 by year-end
According to ChainCatcher, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in his latest blog post "Snow Forecast" that Bitcoin's drop from $125,000 to the $90,000 range, while US stocks remain at historical highs, indicates "a credit event is brewing."
Hayes pointed out that his US dollar liquidity index has significantly weakened since July, and if the market deteriorates further, the Federal Reserve, Treasury, or other institutions will be forced to accelerate "money printing" to stabilize the situation. During this period, Bitcoin may fall back to $80,000-$85,000. He believes that once US liquidity expands again and stimulus policies are intensified, Bitcoin will quickly reverse and is expected to surge to the $200,000-$250,000 range by year-end.
According to ChainCatcher, data from SoSoValue shows that the crypto market has fallen for three consecutive days, with a general decline of about 2% to 7% in the past 24 hours. The Layer2 sector dropped by 7.13%, with Starknet (STRK) down 21.17% and SOON (SOON) down 30.60%, while Movement (MOVE) remained relatively strong, rising 2.70%.
Notably, Bitcoin (BTC) fell 3.08%, dropping below $92,000, erasing its gains for the year. Ethereum (ETH) dropped 2.93%, briefly falling below $3,000.
In other sectors, the DeFi sector fell 2.07% in 24 hours, but Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Uniswap (UNI) remained relatively strong, rising 1.37% and 2.32%, respectively; the CeFi sector fell 2.10%, with Binance Coin (BNB) down 2.21%; the AI sector fell 2.34%, with KAITO (KAITO) rising 15.03%; the Layer1 sector fell 2.80%, with Internet Computer (ICP) surging 20.17% during the day; the PayFi sector fell 3.29%, but Velo (VELO) rose 15.47%; the Meme sector fell 4.15%, with Giggle Fund (GIGGLE) rising 3.93%.
The crypto sector indices reflecting historical performance show that the ssiLayer2, ssiDeFi, and ssiMeme indices fell by 7.73%, 5.82%, and 3.95%, respectively.
According to ChainCatcher, Bloomberg Businessweek's annual person of the year and two-time most influential economist in China, Hong Hao, posted on Xiaohongshu: BTC will only have "effective support" if it drops to the $7,000 range.
Platforms like X and Cloudflare experience outages, suspected to be due to a Cloudflare attack
According to ChainCatcher, data from the network status monitoring site DownDetector shows that users reported issues with social media platform X and cloud acceleration service provider Cloudflare.
Cloudflare responded that it is aware of and investigating a potential issue affecting multiple customers.
Blockchain.com plans IPO in 2026
According to ChainCatcher, as reported by The Cryptonomist, the newly appointed co-CEO of cryptocurrency brokerage and wallet provider Blockchain.com revealed that the company is preparing for an IPO in 2026.
Previously, ChainCatcher reported that Blockchain.com had been in talks to go public in the US through a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) in October. The company's valuation has fluctuated significantly in recent years due to market volatility. It raised $300 million in March 2021 at a post-money valuation of $5.2 billion, with its valuation rising to $14 billion the following year. However, by November 2023, its valuation had dropped to $7 billion in a $110 million financing round.
US Senators call for investigation into Trump family-linked crypto company World Liberty Financial
According to ChainCatcher, CNBC reports that US Senators Elizabeth Warren and Jack Reed sent a letter to the Department of Justice and the Treasury, requesting an investigation into the crypto company World Liberty Financial, closely linked to President Trump’s family, due to allegations that the company sold its $WLFI tokens to entities associated with illegal actors such as North Korea and Russia, raising national security concerns.
The senators cited a report from the nonprofit organization Accountable.US, which stated that WLF sold $WLFI tokens to "highly suspicious entities." These entities were found to have transactional links on the blockchain with the sanctioned North Korean hacking group Lazarus Group, Russian "ruble-backed sanctions evasion tools," Iranian crypto exchanges, and Tornado Cash.
WLF's website shows that Eric Trump, Donald Trump Jr., and Barron Trump are co-founders, and the entity DT Marks DEFI LLC (associated with the president and his family members) holds a majority stake in WLF and is entitled to 75% of the proceeds from $WLFI token sales.
The senators believe that selling governance tokens to these entities not only directly profits the Trump family but may also give illegal actors influence over WLF governance, indicating that WLF "lacks strong sanctions and anti-money laundering controls," and warned that this "poses a significant risk of facilitating illegal financial activities."
According to ChainCatcher, DeFiance Capital CEO Arthur Cheong posted on X this morning, stating that the product design and market structure of crypto derivatives (especially perpetual contracts) remain the biggest structural issues facing the industry, and without improvement, it will be difficult to support sustainable growth.
Wintermute founder Evgeny Gaevoy responded that traditional finance has long addressed these flaws, so the real issue is not the design of perpetual contracts, but the centralization and pseudo-decentralization of exchanges that concentrate execution brokers, central limit order books (CLOB), and custodial services.
Uncertain prospects for Fed rate cuts, international gold prices continue to decline
According to ChainCatcher, as reported by Jin10, gold prices continued to decline over the past three days, supported by diminishing expectations for a Fed rate cut next month. On Tuesday morning, spot gold traded around $4,040 per ounce. Traders and policymakers are awaiting a large amount of data, with several Fed officials warning that borrowing costs will not be lowered again. The interest rate swap market currently indicates less than a 40% chance of a Fed rate cut in December.
Data: El Salvador increases its Bitcoin holdings by 1,090 BTC, total holdings reach 7,474.37 BTC
According to ChainCatcher, data from the El Salvador Ministry of Finance shows that El Salvador has increased its Bitcoin holdings by 1,090 BTC (worth $100 million), bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to 7,474.37 BTC, valued at over $686 million.
According to ChainCatcher, OKX CEO Star posted on X, stating that since the market crash on October 11, some institutions have been under pressure, people have exited, and even some competitors have stopped promoting "Meme Life" tokens, but this does not necessarily mean a bear market is coming. He pointed out that the more important question is "do you still believe in the future of Bitcoin and the crypto industry?"
Star Xu stated that if the answer is negative, it may be time to exit; if still firm, then even as a bear market approaches, now is actually the best time to build, create value for users, and prepare for the next growth cycle. He emphasized that bear markets test faith, and builders will use it to welcome the next bull market.
According to ChainCatcher, Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital) founder Yi Lihua posted on social media:
"I started bottom fishing at $1,800 in the first half of the year, and it eventually dropped to $1,350, and I called for bottom fishing at $1,450, clearing out at around $4,500, and later it rose to $4,700. No one can catch the absolute bottom or escape the absolute top.
This time I suggest bottom fishing for spot at $3,000-$3,300, do not do contracts, the situation is still unclear. In the past few days, Japan's interest rate hike and changes in US rate cuts, as well as the AI bubble, have caused US stocks to decline, leading to ETH briefly dropping below $3,000. However, we maintain our spot positions and remind again that the volatility in the crypto market is significant enough; non-top professionals should not trade contracts.
After observing these past few days, as US stocks continue to decline, crypto will also continue to fall. It is normal for BTC and ETH to drop another 10%. However, we choose to rest and remain still; sincerely sharing is also a joy, and no one can be 100% correct."
According to ChainCatcher, official news states that Circle has announced the launch of a new interoperability infrastructure called xReserve, aimed at helping blockchain teams deploy USDC-backed stablecoins that are fully interoperable with native USDC.
xReserve is built on Circle's CCTP (Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol) and Gateway, enabling value transfer through the xReserve attestation service without relying on third-party bridging services. Circle announced partnerships with leading blockchain projects Canton and Stacks, which will integrate xReserve in the coming weeks and launch their own USDC-backed stablecoins to support specific use cases within their ecosystems. This technology aims to pave the way for a multi-chain future by eliminating liquidity fragmentation and minimizing trust assumptions, and it is designed to support other digital assets like EURC in the future.
Meme Popularity Rankings
According to the meme token tracking and analysis platform GMGN, as of November 19, 09:00,
The top five popular tokens on ETH in the past 24 hours are: SHIB, LINK, PEPE, ONDO, ETHFI
The top five popular tokens on Solana in the past 24 hours are: TRUMP, Fartcoin, ME, DOOD, GHILLGUY
The top five popular tokens on Base in the past 24 hours are: ZORA, VIRTUAL, B3, SLAP, TOSHI
What are some interesting articles to read in the past 24 hours?
In 2014, I had just sold my first company. The money wasn't much, but at the time it felt like all the wealth I needed for a long time. After that, I felt pulled in several different directions. I had previously written about one of those paths here, as well as my self-exploration that led me to venture capital. But at that time, there was another pull that made me want to create something else.
I didn't want to start a business just for the sake of it; I wanted it to be more meaningful, to find a problem worth solving. In searching for meaningful problems, I stumbled upon Y Combinator's RFS list, titled "Request for Startups."
After saying goodbye to Twitter noise, I finally stopped "suicidal trading" in the crypto market
Distracted? Then you are destined to "NGMI" (Not Gonna Make It).
Do you really want to get rich, or do you want to watch your portfolio shrink in front of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the dollar while entertaining yourself?
There are many people richer than me, but the "blueprint" you will see next is exactly the same. And what does their wealth have to do with mine? In my personal investment journey, I have surpassed my wildest dreams—self-sufficient, average IQ, and relatively sane. Moreover, my last trade was three years ago. The crypto world in 2025 has become extremely boring; now the only thing to do is "HODL forever," as it has become part of your net worth.
In November, American fintech giant SoFi announced that it would fully open cryptocurrency trading to all retail customers. This comes just three years after it obtained a national banking license in the US, and now it has become the first true "crypto bank" in the US, even preparing to launch a dollar stablecoin in 2026.
On the day the news was announced, SoFi's stock price surged to a historic high, with a market value of $38.9 billion, up 116% year-to-date.
Chen Yizhou, CEO of the campus network (later renamed Renren), was one of SoFi's earliest investors. In 2011, he met SoFi's founder through a Stanford connection and decided to invest $4 million after a conversation of less than five minutes.
Later, he recalled this investment in a speech, saying, "At that time, I didn't even know about P2P lending; I just thought this was a great idea."
Analyzing the value of Uniswap's unification proposal and CCA auction protocol
Recently, the industry's excitement has been diverted by the rise of the X402 payment track and the panic of Black Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, as well as the rotation of the privacy sector in the bull market.
This world is truly fascinating and noisy.
Now, whether it's a bear market or not, one common mistake smart people make is: trying to optimize something that shouldn't exist (from Musk). Now, calm down and review the brilliance of past successful products, see which players in the competition are engaging in ineffective operations, and identify which are the pigs on the wind, as only when the wind stops can we truly see the long-term value of the future.
Risk warning
Risk warning
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