Bitget UEX Daily Report | Nasdaq fell 1.88%; U.S. September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year; BTC is close to the ETF cost reference line (October 15, 2026)

# 1. Selected Hot News

Federal Reserve and Inflation

September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, with rising energy prices increasing policy pressure

In the U.S., the September CPI increased by 0.6% month-on-month, higher than August's 0.4%; it rose 3.7% year-on-year, up from 3.4%. The core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year. Gasoline prices increased by 9.1% month-on-month, contributing to more than half of the overall monthly increase.

Market Impact: The coexistence of energy shocks and core price stickiness means that the rise in inflation should not be viewed solely as a short-term oil price disturbance. Tonight's PPI will provide additional evidence from the production side, and companies with high valuations and significant financing needs will still face changes in interest rate expectations.

International Commodities

Middle East supply risks continue, WTI settles up 1.01%

According to Reuters, attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz have sustained supply concerns. On October 14, Brent's December contract settled at $106.06 per barrel, up 0.35%; WTI's November contract settled at $95.09 per barrel, up 1.01%.

Market Impact: High oil prices benefit upstream revenues but increase pressure on transportation, manufacturing, and household spending. Key observations include actual supply, inventory, and freight rates; geopolitical risks should not be directly equated with equivalent production losses.

Macroeconomics

Real hourly wages fell 0.5% month-on-month, retail data will test consumer resilience

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the real average hourly wage for all employees fell 0.5% month-on-month in September, and the real average weekly wage also fell 0.5%. This reflects the erosion of purchasing power due to rising prices and does not equate to a decline in nominal wages.

Market Impact: Tonight's retail sales need to be interpreted in conjunction with commodity prices and category structures. An increase in sales does not necessarily represent an increase in actual purchase volume; if spending on necessities crowds out discretionary consumption, companies' revenues and profit margins may diverge.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity and Forex Performance

Spot Gold | $4,083.94 per ounce | Quoted at 02:05 Beijing time on October 15

Spot Silver | $55.53 per ounce | Quoted during U.S. trading hours on October 14

Brent Crude Oil Futures | $106.06 per barrel, +0.35% | December contract, settled on October 14

WTI Crude Oil Futures | $95.09 per barrel, +1.01% | November contract, settled on October 14

U.S. Dollar Index DXY | Approximately 102.20 | Quoted at 08:42 Beijing time on October 15

Precious metals reference Reuters quotes, crude oil figures as above; DXY uses Yahoo Finance data, not the U.S. session closing price.

Driving Analysis: The rebound in inflation may simultaneously increase energy costs and interest rate pressures, so gold may not necessarily rise in sync with inflation data. For risk assets, the key is whether corporate earnings can cover changes in financing and input costs.

Cryptocurrency Performance

BTC: Approximately 81,610.50 USDT, down 2.11% in 24 hours.

ETH: Approximately 2,413.85 USDT, down 3.67% in 24 hours.

Total cryptocurrency market cap: Approximately $2.76 trillion, down 4.97% in 24 hours; this update time is 09:18 Beijing time.

BTC | Liquidation Zone Observation

The upper potential liquidation zone for shorts is around $82,400---$82,800, approximately 1.05%---1.54% away from the current price; the lower potential liquidation zone for longs is around $80,600---$81,200, approximately 0.42%---1.15% away. Currently closer to the lower zone, if it continues to fall, attention should be paid to whether long liquidation amplifies volatility.

ETH | Liquidation Zone Observation

The upper potential liquidation zone for shorts is around $2,450---$2,470, approximately 1.58%---2.41% away from the current price; the lower potential liquidation zone for longs is around $2,390---$2,405, approximately 0.28%---0.90% away. The lower zone is closer, with a short-term focus on around $2,405; when rebounding into the upper zone, attention should be paid to the risk of short covering.

Institutional Holding Cost | BTC

Glassnode's weekly report released on October 14 (daily on-chain metrics as of October 13) lists the comprehensive cost reference for the U.S. spot BTC ETF at approximately $81,500, with the BTC conversion price about 0.05% higher, essentially close to the estimated breakeven line. Strategy disclosed on October 12 that as of October 11, it held 848,250 BTC, with an overall average cost of approximately $75,444, including fees; the current coin price is about 8.08% higher than that cost. The above comparison is the price difference relative to the holding cost.

Market Snapshot in One Sentence

The ETF cost reference of approximately $81,500 for BTC is close to the lower liquidation zone of $80,600---$81,200, forming a key observation zone for the short term; if the cost line is breached and the price continues into the lower zone, attention should be paid to the pressure of deleveraging. ETH is also closer to the lower liquidation zone, currently focusing on the support during the pullback, and cannot solely rely on the map to determine inevitable rises or falls.

Major U.S. Stock Index Performance

Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,621.48 | -0.09%

S&P 500 Index | 7,718.94 | -1.11%

NASDAQ Composite Index | 26,692.87 | -1.88%

All three major indices closed lower, with the NASDAQ significantly weaker than the Dow. The index and the following individual stock data use Yahoo Finance's regular session closing records, with percentage changes calculated based on the previous trading day's closing price.

Performance of the Seven Tech Giants

NVIDIA NVDA | 221.30 | -3.16%

Apple AAPL | 342.96 | +0.50%

Microsoft MSFT | 533.69 | -1.80%

Alphabet GOOGL | 347.64 | -1.74%

Amazon AMZN | 254.08 | -1.74%

Meta META | 737.54 | -3.27%

Tesla TSLA | 367.16 | -2.15%

Performance Summary: Among the seven major tech stocks, one rose while six fell, with Apple being the only gainer and Meta experiencing the largest decline. The broad decline in large tech stocks indicates that the strong narrative of AI demand still needs to withstand scrutiny regarding valuation and financing costs.

Sector Movement Observation

AI and Cloud Infrastructure: Oracle closed at $130.55, down 8.83%; CoreWeave closed at $65.78, down 15.46%. The focus for capital-intensive businesses remains on expansion speed, financing conditions, and cash recovery, and equity value cannot be assessed solely based on demand scale.

Semiconductor Equipment and Banks: ASML fell 3.94%, Morgan Stanley fell 2.75%, and Bank of America fell 4.76%. Improved earnings reports and rising stock prices do not necessarily correspond one-to-one; the credibility of guidance, market expectations, and one-time expenses need to be evaluated separately.

# 3. In-Depth Analysis of Key U.S. Stocks

1. ASML------Raised full-year sales guidance, stock price still under pressure

Event Overview: ASML's U.S. stock closed at $1,650.00 on October 14, down 3.94%. The company's third-quarter sales were approximately €11.7 billion, with a gross margin of 57.5%; the full-year sales guidance was narrowed to €44 billion---€45 billion, with fourth-quarter guidance of €14.2 billion---€15.2 billion.

Market Interpretation: The increase in the lower limit of the full-year guidance supports demand assessments but does not eliminate valuation pressure across the entire tech sector. Equipment demand, delivery capability, and final revenue recognition remain three distinct stages.

Investment Insight: Observe customer capital expenditures, execution of capacity expansion, and realization of gross margins, distinguishing between customers' long-term demand expressions and confirmed orders.

2. Morgan Stanley (MS)------Wealth management growth, quality of new assets worth noting

Event Overview: Morgan Stanley closed at $181.51, down 2.75%. Third-quarter net revenue was $20.3 billion, with diluted earnings per share of $3.03. The net new assets in wealth management were approximately $232 billion, with slightly more than half related to IPO-related fund flows.

Market Interpretation: New assets enhance the future fee base, but IPO-related fund flows may be concentrated, and one cannot directly extrapolate the scale of a single quarter. Market changes will also affect asset valuations and subsequent management fee income.

Investment Insight: Focus on inflows of fee-generating assets, wealth management profit margins, and client fund retention to assess whether growth can translate into sustainable income.

3. Bank of America (BAC)------Regulatory fees depress profits, operational changes need separate scrutiny

Event Overview: Bank of America closed at $51.39, down 4.76%. Third-quarter net profit was $6.9 billion, with earnings per share of $0.91, including $1.2 billion in regulatory settlement fees, impacting earnings per share by $0.17; excluding this, the non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share was $1.08. Net interest income was $16.4 billion, up 8% year-on-year.

Market Interpretation: Settlement fees impact reported profits, but excluding these fees does not mean operational pressures have disappeared. The growth in net interest income should be analyzed in conjunction with deposit costs, trading business, and credit quality.

Investment Insight: Pay attention to net interest margins, cost control, and credit losses, avoiding the use of adjusted profits alone to judge profit quality.

# 4. Market and Project Dynamics

Payward plans to acquire Saldo Bank: Kraken's parent company announced on October 14 that it has signed an agreement to acquire Saldo Finance Oy and its banking subsidiary. The deal is expected to close in 2027, still subject to regulatory approval; it should not be viewed as the bank services being fully launched.

Qivalis obtains authorization from Dutch electronic money institution: This company, supported by 37 European banks, announced on October 14 that it has received authorization from DNB and plans to issue a euro stablecoin in the coming months, still needing to meet MiCA and white paper requirements, and does not mean tokens have been issued.

DriveWealth collaborates with Ripple to advance settlement: On October 14, it was announced that both parties are integrating RLUSD settlement based on the XRP Ledger, initially targeting Europe and planning to expand to the U.S.; the collaboration also covers payments and custody, and the planned scope should not be written as already globally implemented.

Chainalysis releases North America adoption report: On October 14, the report stated that the scale of cryptocurrency economic activity in North America was approximately $3.02 trillion for the 12-month period ending July 1, 2026. This value is not the current total market cap nor today's capital inflow; the report also focuses on AI agent payments and stablecoin applications.

Berkshire plans additional investment in Bending Spoons: The company announced on October 14 that it plans to issue 10 million shares at $33 per share, raising $330 million, and after the transaction is completed, Berkshire's shareholding ratio will reach 4%; the closing is still subject to customary conditions.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Important Data and Events

All times are in Beijing time (UTC+8), with attention levels assessed by the editor.

October 15, 14:00 | Taiwan, China | TSMC Third Quarter Earnings Presentation | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

October 15, 20:30 | United States | September PPI | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

October 15, 20:30 | United States | September Retail Sales | ⭐⭐⭐⭐

October 15, 20:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Claims | ⭐⭐⭐

October 16, 00:00 | United States | EIA Weekly Petroleum Inventories, week ending October 9 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The timing is based on TSMC, BLS, U.S. Census Bureau, FRED calendar (Central Time) and EIA holiday schedule. This week's EIA report is postponed to Thursday at 12:00 PM Eastern Time, and the usual Wednesday release time cannot be applied.

Key Event Outlook

TSMC: Monitor advanced process demand, gross margin, and capital expenditure to verify whether chip demand strength aligns with equipment company guidance. The briefing has not yet started, and financial results will not be pre-filled.

PPI and Retail: The former observes cost pressures, while the latter observes nominal consumption. If both are strong simultaneously, further distinction between actual demand and price contribution is needed; if retail weakens, attention should be paid to whether purchasing power pressure is transmitted to corporate orders.

Institutional Views

According to a Reuters report on October 14, Adam Sarhan, CEO of 50 Park Investments, believes that the inflation report increases pressure on the Federal Reserve to combat inflation. This view suggests that improvements in financial reports and risks of policy tightening need to be assessed simultaneously, rather than focusing solely on the revenue growth of individual companies.

Disclaimer: This content is for market information reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Prices may vary with market changes; please refer to real-time market conditions at the time of actual trading.