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CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the current Bitcoin market is entering an early stabilization phase, with long-term holding behavior gradually strengthening, indicating that the market structure may be undergoing a change.Data shows that since October, the number of BTC held for over one year has increased from about 12 million to approximately 12.4 million. Although the increase is still moderate, it reflects a shift in market behavior towards long-term holding. Since mid-December, the 30-day change has consistently remained positive, indicating that investors are more inclined to continue holding rather than distributing their assets. Darkfost pointed out that this change typically signifies a transition from a speculation-dominated phase to a stronger long-term conviction phase. Historically, the proportion of long-term holdings usually declines significantly at market peaks and gradually rises during bear markets, so the current trend can be seen as an early stabilization signal for the market. However, he also emphasized that this indicator belongs to a long-term dimension and typically requires a longer time to form a clear trend, and we are still in the early stages.

Macro analyst Jordi Visser stated that although the market generally expects the cryptocurrency industry to enter a bear market, Bitcoin and Ethereum are less than 10% away from triggering key levels for a trend reversal.He pointed out that if Bitcoin breaks above $76,000 and Ethereum rises above $2,400, it could mark the beginning of a sustained upward trend for the year. Visser believes that the probability of a recession in the U.S. in the short term is low, a judgment that aligns with the pricing of the prediction market Kalshi, which currently estimates the probability of a recession in 2026 to be around 24%.He also noted that in the context of high inflation and a lack of clear growth momentum in traditional markets (such as the S&P 500), funds may continue to flow into asset classes with income potential. However, there are still divergences in the market; veteran trader Peter Brandt recently stated that the low point for Bitcoin this year may not have occurred yet, and prices could retest or even fall below the $60,000 range. Visser emphasized that the market should not be simply divided into bull and bear cycles, but should be judged from a longer-term structural and liquidity change perspective.

After 21 hours of negotiations, U.S. Vice President Vance stated that no agreement was reached, as Iran refused to commit to abandoning its nuclear weapons program. Trump had previously warned that if negotiations failed, he would implement "total destruction" against Iran. The Iranian conflict has shaken the cryptocurrency market for several weeks, compounded by tariff issues, causing Bitcoin to briefly drop below $70,000 earlier this month.Before the negotiations began, crypto analysts indicated that if an agreement were reached, Bitcoin could rise to $80,000; if negotiations broke down, it might fall back to $65,000. Bulls noted that on-chain wallet data showed that the largest Bitcoin whales continued to buy during periods of intense geopolitical turmoil rather than selling. Their logic is that if the conflict escalates further and disrupts oil supply in the Persian Gulf, leading to rising oil prices, inflation, and the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts, scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold tend to perform well in such contexts.On the bearish side, gold trader and long-term Bitcoin skeptic Peter Schiff stated that as the conflict escalates, investors will flee from Bitcoin to gold. Peter Schiff predicted that Bitcoin would "collapse," claiming that gold is the only true safe-haven asset in wartime, and further suggested that insiders within the administration might be profiting from the volatility surrounding the conflict. If Trump follows through on his threat of "total destruction," both the stock market and the crypto market will almost certainly face simultaneous sell-offs.Regarding further developments, Vance maintained a firm stance at the press conference but did not rule out the possibility of continued negotiations. The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament demanded a ceasefire in Lebanon and the unfreezing of assets before participating in formal negotiations. For Bitcoin traders, the next 72 hours hinge on two questions: Can the ceasefire agreement hold, and will Trump escalate the conflict? Currently, there are still whales buying at the current price level, indicating that at least some large investors are betting on a stabilization of the situation.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated on the X platform that as the market focuses on the launch of the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF MSBT, the Bitcoin After Dark ETF (NGHT) was also launched this Wednesday. The product had a mediocre performance on its first day of trading, but trading volume significantly increased on the second day, and its future performance remains to be seen.Historical research shows that "night returns" often outperform daytime returns, but for long-term ETF investors, holding products like MSBT can cover both day and night returns, so the impact of the difference is limited. However, if NGHT sees strong inflows in the future, it may gain market recognition; conversely, it could quickly become marginalized. The Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF, with its channel distribution advantage, is expected to achieve great success.

According to CoinDesk, the cryptocurrency market is generally stabilizing, with Bitcoin slightly fluctuating around $71,700 and Ethereum at $2,180, continuing the low volatility trend of the past few months.In terms of technical indicators, Bitcoin's daily Bollinger Bands have narrowed to their tightest level since early 2024. Crypto analyst Eric Crown noted that since early February, Bitcoin's price has remained within the range of $63,000 to $75,000, and historically, whenever such a narrow range occurs, the price eventually experiences about a 40% fluctuation.According to CoinGlass's liquidation heat map, if Bitcoin breaks above $75,000, it will trigger upward momentum, forcing short sellers to cover their positions; if it falls below $70,000 in the short term, approximately $200 million in long positions betting on a breakout will be liquidated.One of the key catalysts on Friday is the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The inflation rate for March is expected to be 3.3% year-on-year, driven by soaring energy prices. Higher inflation data often strengthens the dollar, which in turn puts pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.

The latest U.S. PCE inflation data largely met expectations, easing market uncertainty, and Bitcoin's price stabilized after previously reaching around $73,000. Data shows that the core PCE year-on-year is 3%, and month-on-month is 0.4%. The market is also influenced by the easing situation between the U.S. and Iran, but analysts point out that the current PCE data has not yet reflected potential energy price shocks.Although the inflation data did not trigger significant market fluctuations, investors remain cautious about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for this year. Economist Mohamed El-Erian stated that compared to PCE, the upcoming CPI data to be released this week will have a more critical impact on the market, especially against the backdrop of oil price fluctuations. On the trading front, the market remains in a volatile range, with liquidity mainly concentrated in the $69,000 to $76,000 range. Trader Michaël van de Poppe believes that as long as the key support range holds, Bitcoin is expected to start a new round of upward momentum, targeting $80,000.

Crypto analyst Ali published a lengthy analysis on the X platform, pointing out that rather than debating whether Bitcoin has bottomed out, it is better to focus on whether the current volatility constitutes a "generational entry opportunity." Based on indicators such as long-term trend lines, on-chain liquidity, and cost distribution, the core "value range" of this cycle is defined.In terms of support, the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows that there is a significant concentration of chips in the range of approximately $63,111 to $70,685, forming the current main support zone; if it falls below $63,111, the market may enter a liquidity vacuum. From a long-term trend perspective, Bitcoin is approaching the key upward trend line of the past decade (approximately $56,000 to $60,000), which historically has often corresponded to accumulation phases before major upward movements.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is currently priced at about $71,200, and Ethereum is at $2,185, with the overall market maintaining a range-bound fluctuation. Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone warned that if Bitcoin cannot recover to $75,000, there is a risk of dropping to $10,000; Fundstrat founder Tom Lee believes that the market bottom has been established.In terms of derivatives, Bitcoin futures open interest has risen to 726,000 contracts, with the 24-hour CVD being positive for two consecutive days, and the funding rate slightly above zero, indicating an overall bullish tendency; the CVD and funding rates for ETH, XRP, and Solana are slightly negative. The volatility index continues to decline, with the market expecting price fluctuations of only about 2.5% around Friday's inflation data.Regarding altcoins, MANA and AERO each rose by about 6%, but MANA's increase was accompanied by a 25% surge in open interest, indicating it is mainly driven by leverage. The market is focused on whether Bitcoin can effectively break through $75,000 and establish support; if achieved, it may trigger a rotation of funds into oversold altcoin sectors.

According to Jinshi reports, analysts at First Citizens Bank stated in a report that the U.S. CPI data released on Friday is expected to reflect the transmission of the Iranian energy shock for the first time significantly. Driven by soaring energy costs, overall inflation will accelerate. The head of market and economic research at the bank pointed out that although core inflation is affected more mildly, the Federal Reserve will "ignore" the surge in energy-driven inflation, which will reinforce the Fed's long-standing stance of inaction and closely link potential rate cuts to the normalization of energy prices.

According to analyst Darkfost's data, after the news of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, Bitcoin saw an active buying volume of $2.7 billion (taker orders) in the Binance derivatives market within two hours.Analysts pointed out that the easing of geopolitical events pushed the price of Bitcoin up to around $71,700, indicating that investors are optimistic about risk assets in the short term, but are still influenced by subsequent geopolitical developments.

According to Cointelegraph, on-chain data and derivatives market indicators show that Ethereum buying power is returning, but analysts warn that bulls must defend the $2000 support level.CryptoQuant data shows that the net buying volume of Ethereum has remained positive since March 6, peaking at $140 million on March 16 and currently maintaining at $104 million. Net buying volume is an indicator of the imbalance between aggressive buyers and sellers in the derivatives market. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated, "This is the first time we have observed such a mechanism shift in the Ethereum derivatives market since the last bear market." He added that if this trend continues and the spot market and ETFs begin to follow suit, Ethereum is expected to restart its upward trend.In terms of futures open interest, the current position is 6.4 million ETH, close to the historical high of 7.8 million ETH set in July 2025, having gradually recovered from a low of 5 million ETH last October. The flow of funds into spot Ethereum ETFs also turned positive on Monday, with a net inflow of $120 million, the highest single-day net inflow since mid-March.On the price front, analyst Ted Pillows stated, "As long as the $2000 support level holds, Ethereum is likely to attack again; if it falls below this level, a new low for the year may follow." Glassnode's cost basis distribution data shows that over 3.5 million ETH have a holding cost concentrated around $2000; if this area is breached, the secondary support lies between $1750 and $1800, where approximately 1.36 million ETH were accumulated. If the price further breaks below the aforementioned support, the measured target of the symmetrical triangle points to $1460, about 30% lower than the current price.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that Musk is likely to use SPCX as the stock code for the SpaceX IPO, which was previously held by Matt Tuttle, but the related ETF has undergone a code change.Eric Balchunas pointed out that the Bloomberg ETF team had predicted this situation as early as a report last December, and the discovery of the stock code "SPCX" for the SpaceX IPO was proposed by Roundhill Investments co-founder Will Hershey, who had previously "given" the META code to Mark Zuckerberg, referring to it as a "mutual understanding among peers."

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that, according to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) listing announcement, the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin exchange-traded fund will trade under the ticker "MBST".

Bloomberg ETF senior analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that American "Baby Boomer" investors have quietly invested about $500 million into Bitcoin spot ETFs amid a challenging market environment and frequent macroeconomic headwinds, which has somewhat filled the funding gap since the beginning of the year.However, data shows that the overall net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs is still slightly negative year-to-date, indicating that the market as a whole remains in a wait-and-see stance. The recent round of capital inflow demonstrates some traditional capital's long-term allocation interest in Bitcoin ETFs.

Cryptocurrency market analyst Axel posted a report on social media stating that the current pullback of Bitcoin is significantly smaller than during the periods of 2017-18 (-64.3%) and 2021-22, and is closer to the moderate scenario of 2013-15. However, this does not confirm that a bottom has been formed. The current Bitcoin price is slightly above 1.25 times the realized price ($67,675), and the market is in a critical valuation range.As long as this range can be maintained, or if the price can quickly recover after a brief drop below it, then the market structure remains neutral. If it continues to break below this support level, it is likely to drop to the range of $54,140 near the realized price, around $54,000 to $58,000.

Analysts at First Abu Dhabi Bank stated in a report that the strength of oil prices has already become, and will continue to be (at least in the short term), a more structural driver of inflationary pressures. The analysts pointed out that inflationary pressures have led to a sell-off in interest rates as expectations for central bank rate cuts have faded. Previously, the market expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates two to three times this year, but those expectations have been ruled out.LSEG data shows that the money market currently expects the U.S. policy rate to remain largely unchanged in 2026, with a very slight tightening bias. The market has even factored in a more hawkish rate hike scenario for the European Central Bank and the Bank of England by the end of this year, with increases of 74 basis points and 56 basis points, respectively, "which is largely a result of imported energy inflation from Europe."

This morning, 60,000 ETH were redeemed from Ethereum staking and transferred to Coinbase. According to analysis by Yu Jin, the owner of this ETH is Andrew Keys, co-founder of DARMA Capital, and this ETH has been staked for nearly 5 years.In recent days, these ETH have been largely redeemed and aggregated, then transferred to Coinbase. During the nearly 5 years of staking, these ETH earned approximately 18% in coin-based returns (16,000 ETH, worth 34.2 million USD).

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, about 1 hour ago, Resolv Labs destroyed 36.73 million USR held by the hacker through a contract upgrade.The hacker minted 80 million USR through a minting vulnerability without collateral, of which approximately 34 million USR were sold off by the hacker for 11,409 ETH (24.48 million USD) stored at the address 0x8ED...81C. Additionally, about 46 million USR were destroyed from the hacker's address by the Resolv project team through a contract upgrade. The actual loss from this vulnerability exploitation incident for Resolv is 34 million USD.

Analyst Alicharts updates multiple long-term bottom indicator signals for Bitcoin to reference Bitcoin's bottom points.Key support levels include around $63,111 shown by URPD, the trend line guarding for nearly 10 years at $56,000-$60,000, the structural bottom of CVDD at $47,960, and the extreme pain zone of MVRV at $43,647. Alicharts suggests that investors diversify funds into areas between $63,000 and $36,000, rather than precisely predicting a single bottom. Currently, the market is mostly in a wait-and-see or distribution phase, suitable for macro rebound layouts.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart stated that as market demand continues to expand, the future assets under management (AUM) of Bitcoin spot ETFs are expected to surpass those of gold ETFs.Seyffart pointed out that Bitcoin has a more diverse role in investment portfolios, being viewed as "digital gold," a store of value, and possessing attributes such as asset allocation diversification, liquidity trading, and growth-oriented risk assets, while the investment logic for gold is relatively singular. In terms of capital flows, there has been a noticeable outflow from U.S. gold ETFs recently, with a net outflow of approximately $2.92 billion in March; during the same period, Bitcoin spot ETFs achieved a net inflow of about $1.32 billion, indicating a shift in capital preferences. Despite the divergence in capital flows, Bitcoin and gold prices have shown similar trends recently. Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin prices have dropped by about 8.07%, while gold prices have decreased by about 8.25%. Market views suggest that as investors' demand for digital asset allocation increases, Bitcoin ETFs are gradually shifting from "alternative assets" to mainstream asset allocation tools, and their long-term growth potential is being reassessed.