demand

VanEck's research director Matthew Sigel analyzed in a post on the X platform that the current protective demand in the Bitcoin derivatives market has risen to the historical 99th percentile, which is typically seen as a "contrarian buy signal" under extreme risk-averse market sentiment, and he judges that the market is currently suitable for establishing long positions.The VanEck Digital Transformation ETF (NODE), which Matthew Sigel also manages, has risen 27% since its inception, while Bitcoin has fallen 33% during the same period, achieving lower volatility performance through diversified allocation and focusing on profitable sectors. However, he also warns that if the massive capital expenditures in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector do not generate corresponding returns, it could pose substantial pressure on the market, especially in the context of a concentration in S&P 500 constituents.Note: Percentile is a statistical position concept, with the 99th percentile representing a relatively extreme level, and the 50th percentile representing the median level.

Tether is pushing investors to participate in a new round of financing at an estimated valuation of about $500 billion. If market demand does not meet expectations, the fundraising process may be delayed.Reports indicate that the company has been exploring financing plans since last year, but some investors are cautious about the valuation. If this valuation is achieved, Tether's size will surpass most U.S. banks, second only to JPMorgan Chase. Previously, the company discussed raising about $15 billion to $20 billion through private placements, but the related plans still carry uncertainty.

According to Jinshi reports, CICC's research report believes that the conflict between the U.S. and Iran has led to a surge in oil prices, with the risk of "inflation" taking precedence. The market expects changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, bringing selling pressure to gold ETFs that were heavily increased last year, while liquidity shocks are also contributing to short-term corrections through the futures and options markets.Currently, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East may be entering a critical window period, with oil prices facing a choice between rising and falling. The pricing focus in the gold market may shift to assessing the impact of supply shocks on "stagflation," and the already priced-in expectations for interest rate hikes may need to be revised.Looking ahead, CICC believes that whether it is a pullback in oil prices after a geopolitical downgrade, a return to a loose monetary policy direction, or intensified supply shocks increasing recession pressures and triggering the safe-haven value of gold, there may be upward correction space for both gold investment demand and prices.

According to Theblock citing CryptoQuant data, although some institutional buyers are still continuing to purchase, the spot demand for Bitcoin remains in a "deep contraction" state. As of late March, the 30-day apparent demand has decreased by approximately -63,000 BTC, indicating that the selling pressure in the market is still stronger than the buying pressure.CryptoQuant stated that if the conflict between the U.S. and Iran eases, the price of Bitcoin could rise to the range of $71,500 to $81,200, which are key resistance levels in a bear market.

On Sunday local time, Trump stated to reporters aboard Air Force One that Iran has "satisfied" most of the 15 ceasefire demands previously made by the U.S. to Tehran, although it is still unclear whether substantial negotiations are actually taking place between the two sides.He said, "They have met most of our points. Why wouldn't they do that? We will put forward a few other demands." However, he refused to disclose what specific concessions Iran had made. Publicly, Iran has clearly rejected the list of 15 ceasefire conditions and has proposed its own five preconditions—one of which includes complete control over the sovereignty of the Strait of Hormuz.Last weekend, officials from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey held meetings in an attempt to find a way out of the conflict, but there are currently no signs that the talks have made substantial progress. The Pakistani Foreign Minister stated after meeting with his counterparts from various countries, "Both Iran and the U.S. have expressed trust in Pakistan and are willing for Pakistan to host subsequent negotiations." However, neither side has indicated that they are ready for direct dialogue.

According to a report by Jinshi, Mitsubishi UFJ analyst Derek Halpenny stated that if the conflict in Iran leads to an increase in capital inflows into safe-haven assets, the dollar may strengthen further. He anticipates that if the stock market experiences a larger decline, the dollar will strengthen further. In a more severe scenario, if Brent crude oil prices rise from $110 per barrel to the range of $120 to $160, the dollar index could rise to around 105.

According to Cointelegraph, Maxine Waters, a senior Democrat on the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, has written to Jeff Schmid, president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, requesting an explanation regarding the approval of a limited-purpose master account for Kraken Financial.Waters has asked the Kansas City Fed to clarify the specific permissions of the Kraken account, the federal services accessible, any additional conditions or restrictions, and the anti-money laundering and consumer protection measures being considered by April 10. Kraken's banking division received the account earlier this month, allowing direct access to the Federal Reserve's core payment system, Fedwire.Waters pointed out that innovations in payments, digital assets, tokenization, and artificial intelligence are rapidly outpacing the existing legal framework, necessitating transparency in access to critical financial infrastructure. According to the crypto advocacy organization Stand With Crypto, Waters is rated as a "strong opponent of cryptocurrency."

RootData will launch a market maker project roadshow next Monday (March 30), showcasing the transparency rankings of market makers in the cryptocurrency industry as well as representative market making projects. To ensure the reliability and fairness of this content, RootData calls on market maker projects to claim their project homepage on the website and provide sufficient information to enhance their transparency.It is reported that there have been frequent malicious activities by cryptocurrency market makers recently, and Binance has specifically released a market maker guide to warn project parties and users to guard against market manipulation risks. RootData's initiative aims to help users better understand the market structure of market makers and provide references for their investment decisions through transparency indicators.

CryptoQuant analyzed on platform X that the demand for Bitcoin reserves is currently entirely driven by Strategy.In the past 30 days, Strategy purchased 45,000 Bitcoins, while other companies collectively bought only about 1,000, a decrease of 99% compared to before. Currently, Strategy holds about 76% of the Bitcoin reserve share, indicating a high concentration in the industry and a lack of broad corporate demand.

The price of Bitcoin continues to be pressured below $72,000, and four on-chain data points indicate weakening market demand, putting short-term upward potential under pressure: 1. Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score (ATS) is close to zero, indicating that large holders are reducing or stopping their accumulation of BTC. This trend is similar to early 2025 when the price of Bitcoin fell to $74,500. Small to medium-sized holding entities (less than 1,000 BTC) are also showing a "distribution or inactive" state.Santiment points out that Bitcoin whale activity is "historically low," with only 6,417 transactions exceeding $100,000 last week, and transactions over $1 million dropping to 1,485, the lowest level since October 2024. Analysts say that smart money is taking a cautious wait-and-see approach due to the uncertainty surrounding the CLARITY Act and the war outlook.CryptoQuant's network activity index has been declining since August 2025, reflecting a decrease in overall on-chain demand. The fundamental indicators from Bitcoin Vector also show weak network liquidity and growth, with market conditions described as "stably lacking support." Short-term increases rely more on capital flow, short covering, or external catalysts rather than natural growth.Bitcoin's hash rate has significantly decreased to 813 EH/s over the past few weeks, down 22% from 1.2 ZH/s on March 5. Rising energy costs and geopolitical conflicts have led to hash rate earnings of less than $34 per PH/s/day, with most miners facing losses. Token Metrics analysts warn that if the difficulty drops more than 5% within a week, the exit of miners may accelerate, potentially increasing spot selling pressure further.

According to Jinshi Data, Christopher Wong, a strategist at OCBC Bank in Singapore, stated that as people expect the Middle East conflict to ease and the strength of the dollar has weakened, the safe-haven demand for gold has begun to re-emerge. This further proves that gold has not lost its appeal as a safe-haven asset. It was once pushed out of the market by the dollar, and now that pressure is easing.In the short term, gold prices may continue to be influenced by expectations of the Federal Reserve's policy path, the movement of the dollar, and changes in the geopolitical situation. However, this rebound indicates that price declines may still find support unless real yields rise significantly.

According to a report by Reuters, Israeli officials stated that Iran is unlikely to agree to the U.S. demands, but Trump seems determined to reach an agreement with Iran.

Mohsen Rezaei, the new military advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, emphasized in an interview released by Iranian state television on March 23 that Iran will not stop the war until it receives all compensations, all economic sanctions are lifted, and it obtains international legal guarantees against U.S. interference in Iranian affairs.Rezaei also stressed that the dispute between Iran and the U.S. is not only about the current conflict or last year's attacks by the U.S. and Israel on Iran, but has been ongoing for 47 years since the victory of the Iranian Islamic Revolution in 1979, and it must be "brought to an end."

BIT (formerly Matrixport) released a chart today stating that the spot price of Bitcoin has not yet fully reflected this change, but the options market has responded, with implied volatility significantly rising and demand for downside protection continuing to heat up. In the past week, the proportion of bearish buying in Bitcoin options trading reached 29%, while Ethereum was even higher at 37%, indicating a clear shift towards defensive positions.Behind this round of position adjustment is a deep concern among traders regarding geopolitical tensions: inflationary pressures may persist longer as a result, affecting not only oil prices but also spreading to a broader range of growth-sensitive assets. Therefore, continuously tracking changes in market positions remains crucial, especially in the options market.Compared to spot trading, options often reflect changes in the risk appetite of fast-money accounts and tactical funds earlier. Although overall trading volume remains relatively low, market participants have not relaxed their vigilance but are actively managing tail risks. However, it is worth noting that Bitcoin's performance is still outpacing other risk assets.

Katie Haun, founder and CEO of the crypto venture capital firm Haun Ventures, stated in an interview with CNBC, "What is happening in the global payments space is essentially an arms race. Mastercard this week acquired the stablecoin infrastructure company BVNK for up to $1.8 billion, officially entering the stablecoin space. This is one of Mastercard's largest acquisitions ever. Stablecoins can transfer digital dollars instantly and frictionlessly on a global scale, which is a truly significant innovation. The transaction volume in this space has reached $12.5 trillion, and we believe this scale will only continue to grow in the AI era."On the regulatory front, Katie Haun mentioned, "This week, the CFTC and SEC jointly released guidance on what constitutes a security and what constitutes a commodity, which is a core issue in the crypto industry. I have heard that the Senate Banking Committee is advancing a compromise proposal that could be announced as early as today, and I am cautiously optimistic about it. But the key issue is that Congress effectively has only three working months left before the midterm elections, and they need to quickly push the CLARITY Act to a vote after the Easter recess." Speaking about the combination of AI and blockchain, Katie Haun stated, "AI agents will increasingly replace humans in executing transactions and payments. If you think AI agents will use the same payment systems as humans, I believe that is a mistake. Agents require 24/7, instant settlement on a global scale, and stablecoins are the infrastructure built for this new era."

United Stables' stablecoin $U is about to continue the second phase of Binance Wealth Management, with a maximum annualized return of 10% for flexible wealth management. The event will take place from 8:00 AM on March 20, 2026, to 7:59 PM on April 4, 2026 (UTC+8).Binance users who subscribe to the U principal-protected earning flexible product can enjoy dual rewards of tiered annualized returns and real-time annualized earnings. Each user can receive a maximum annualized return of 10% on the first 20,000 U subscribed, with no lock-up restrictions and the ability to redeem at any time.

According to The Block, Amy Oldenburg, the head of digital asset strategy at Morgan Stanley, stated at the Washington Blockchain Summit that the adoption of crypto ETFs is still in a very early stage, with about 80% of the demand for crypto ETFs on the platform coming from self-directed investors rather than advisor-managed accounts.Oldenburg described Morgan Stanley's advancement of crypto products as "an orderly step-by-step journey," emphasizing that the wealth management team still has a lot of work to do in terms of education and portfolio construction to help financial advisors incorporate digital assets into asset allocation models. Morgan Stanley has opened brokerage account purchase permissions for Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 and applied to list Bitcoin and Solana spot ETFs in January of this year.At the institutional allocation level, Morgan Stanley's Global Investment Committee recommends that the allocation of crypto assets in model portfolios should not exceed 4%, while Bank of America also supports an allocation range of 1% to 4%, and BlackRock and Fidelity have provided similar guidance. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan pointed out that some professional investors are currently considering increasing their allocation to about 5%.

According to Nikkei Asia, Japanese fiber optic cable manufacturer Fujikura announced that it will invest up to 300 billion yen (approximately 1.9 billion USD) in Japan and the United States, planning to triple its fiber optic cable production capacity to meet the strong demand brought about by the construction of artificial intelligence data centers.This investment is part of a series of actions by Japanese material companies in response to the Japan-U.S. Economic Cooperation Agreement and to accelerate their layout in the U.S. Meanwhile, several Japanese companies are also actively following up on investments related to AI infrastructure, including JX Advanced Materials expanding AI material production capacity and Japan promoting the construction of a domestic AI chip ecosystem.