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BTC $74,992.28 -0.94%
ETH $2,299.09 -2.22%
BNB $622.78 -1.16%
XRP $1.42 -0.65%
SOL $85.44 -0.90%
TRX $0.3325 +1.00%
DOGE $0.0944 -0.33%
ADA $0.2467 -0.71%
BCH $440.26 -0.97%
LINK $9.18 -1.18%
HYPE $41.64 -5.69%
AAVE $91.49 -13.51%
SUI $0.9451 -1.16%
XLM $0.1713 +1.55%
ZEC $305.05 -4.86%

ark

Spark's strategic director: The ETH market faces liquidity risks due to a potential 10% to 15% reduction in rsETH loans

The strategic director of Spark, monetsupply.eth, posted on platform X that as the stablecoin market begins to lack liquidity, the situation is entering a more dangerous phase. I believe that the ETH market is about 16.5% supported by rsETH, and if the loans supported by rsETH experience losses shared between the mainnet and external chains, there may be a 10% to 15% reduction in emode, leaving a remaining 2% to 3% reduction for ETH suppliers to smooth out the umbrella structure.ETH suppliers naturally tend to exit as soon as possible to avoid this risk, so the utilization rate is locked at 100%, and the borrowing rates are insufficient to incentivize the repayment of unrelated LST cycles (wstETH, weETH) to release liquidity. Since users cannot withdraw ETH, those who borrow stablecoins like USDT and use ETH as collateral cannot close their positions even when stablecoin borrowing rates rise, cutting off the typical incentive mechanism to maintain market health.Currently, two unhealthy incentives are causing the market utilization rate to be locked at 100%: 1) ETH holders cannot close their positions to maintain a healthy LTV, and liquidators cannot atomically withdraw or sell collateral, which may lead to bad debts if the ETHUSD price falls. 2) Users supplying USDT, in order to exit their holdings, tend to maximize borrowing of other stablecoins, which is currently generating positive returns (temporarily), thus the exit cost is low; if conditions worsen, they can at least recover 75% of the position value.The bottom line is that these pooled/re-staked lending markets must maintain liquidity at all costs to operate normally. The recent weakening of slope2 against Aave's maximum borrowing rate is having a negative impact and significantly increasing the risk of failure in the yield market.

Spark: The delisting of rsETH assets in January had caused strong dissatisfaction among ETH leveraged users, but it has now been proven to be a prudent strategy

The head of the Spark Protocol strategy, monetsupply.eth, posted on platform X stating that in January of this year, low-usage assets like rsETH were removed and collateral and functionality were continuously tightened. This move sparked strong dissatisfaction among "ETH leveraged" users at the time.Additionally, Spark has long set a high upper limit on interest rates in the ETH lending market, transferring some business and revenue to Aave over the past year (where its ETH borrowing rate once dropped to 10% or below). However, in the current market crisis environment, this strategy has proven to be more prudent. Currently, SparkLend still maintains sufficient ETH withdrawal liquidity, while Aave has experienced liquidity tightness and even "lock-up" situations in the Ethereum mainnet and multi-chain markets like Arbitrum and Base.monetsupply.eth further warned that since ETH is the core collateral asset, when market utilization reaches 100%, collateral liquidation will not be able to execute normally. The depletion of liquidity not only affects the depositor experience but may also pose systemic risks. In the current situation of insufficient liquidity in Aave, a 15%-20% drop in ETH prices could lead to significant bad debt accumulation (in addition to the potential impact of the rsETH incident).

Next week's macro outlook: Focus on US-Iran negotiations and changes in the Federal Reserve personnel, with the Middle East situation repeatedly disturbing the market

According to Jinshi reports, global markets significantly rebounded over the past week driven by expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, but core uncertainties remain unresolved. Iran once announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rapid decline in oil prices, a broad strengthening of risk assets, U.S. stocks reaching new highs, a weakening dollar, and gold approaching the $4900 mark. However, Iran subsequently signaled that it "is still under military control," combined with the U.S. maintaining sanctions against Iran, which has heightened market concerns about the volatility of the situation.On the macro level, the biggest variable next week will still be the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations. U.S. President Trump stated that negotiations may advance over the weekend and warned that if an agreement is not reached by next Wednesday, the ceasefire could end, and there is a risk of renewed conflict; meanwhile, Iran's attitude towards negotiations remains cautious, especially with significant differences on key issues such as uranium enrichment. The market has currently shifted from "pricing in conflict escalation" to "pricing in a path to easing," but any sudden changes could still trigger sharp asset fluctuations.In terms of interest rate expectations, the decline in energy prices has alleviated inflationary pressures, and the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year have risen to about 60%. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh will attend a Senate hearing next week, and his policy stance (especially whether it leans dovish) will become an important variable affecting gold and risk assets.On Tuesday at 20:30, U.S. March retail sales month-on-month;On Thursday at 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18;On Thursday at 21:45, U.S. April S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMI preliminary;On Friday at 22:00, U.S. April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value, one-year inflation expectations final value;In the short term, the market's main focus will revolve around three major variables: progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, oil price trends, and signals from the Federal Reserve.

"Polymarket launches 'Claude Developer Anthropic Next Round Financing Deadline'"

Polymarket has launched "Claude developer Anthropic's next round of financing deadline," with the current probability reported at 22% before the end of June; and 81% before the end of December. The event contract rules are as follows: if the specified company publicly and officially announces that it has completed the next round of financing before the specified date (Eastern Time), the market will ultimately be determined as "yes." Otherwise, this market will ultimately conclude as "no." A qualified announcement must clearly confirm that the new round of financing has been completed, which can be through the specified company (such as a press release) or official announcements from its investors, regulatory documents, or consensus reported by credible media.Informal announcements, statements from anonymous sources, or leaks do not meet the criteria. If the specified company is unable to complete the new round of financing due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by other entities, the market will be settled as "no." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official announcements from the specified company, as well as official documents from the company, such as SEC filings; however, credible consensus reporting can also be used. According to ChainCatcher, the Odaily Seer prophet channel continues to monitor the prediction market and has seen changes before pricing.
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