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cow

TD Cowen: Progress on the cryptocurrency bill is hindered, and it's not just the controversy over stablecoin yields

Investment bank TD Cowen stated that the disagreements surrounding the CLARITY Act go beyond the issue of stablecoin yields, and multiple real-world obstacles may slow down the legislative process.First, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is understaffed, with only one commissioner currently in office. In this situation, Congress is unlikely to feel comfortable handing over more cryptocurrency regulatory responsibilities to the agency, and filling the personnel gaps will take months. Second, the issue of prediction markets is heating up. Whether to include it in the bill's regulation, as well as potential insider trading and conflicts of political interest (including controversies related to Trump-related projects), may lead some Democratic lawmakers to oppose the bill.At the same time, the ongoing controversy surrounding the Trump family's cryptocurrency project World Liberty Financial is increasing the political sensitivity of the bill, making bipartisan consensus harder to achieve. Geopolitics has also become a variable. Discussions about Iran potentially using cryptocurrency payments are reinforcing the focus on anti-money laundering provisions and could even introduce amendments detrimental to the industry. Additionally, some lawmakers are attempting to include the Credit Card Competition Act, which, if advanced, could trigger new conflicts of interest and further delay the overall legislation.

TD Cowen: The review window for the US cryptocurrency bill may be extended to the August recess, and if not passed, it may be postponed until 2027

According to The Block, investment bank TD Cowen stated that the time window for the U.S. to pass the crypto market structure bill may extend to the August recess, breaking the previous expectation that legislation needed to be completed before the Easter recess.Jaret Seiberg, managing director of TD Cowen's Washington research team, pointed out that the Easter recess is not a critical milestone, and legislative work can continue before and after the recess. With the conclusion of the primaries, some lawmakers will have greater flexibility for negotiations. Seiberg believes that the August recess is the last meaningful legislative window, after which Congress will only meet for 12 days in September and 2 days in October, which is only enough time to handle spending bills and defense authorization bills.He also reiterated that if control of Congress changes after the 2026 midterm elections, the bill may be delayed until 2027. It is expected that the House may shift to Democratic control, at which point the Democrats may choose to delay until 2027 to gain greater leverage. Currently, the crypto bill is stalled due to opposition from the banking sector regarding stablecoin yields and the Democrats seeking conflict-of-interest provisions for government officials, but both sides are reportedly close to reaching a compromise. Seiberg stated that if the bill does not pass in 2026, the SEC will provide the regulatory actions needed for the crypto industry.
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