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Peter Brandt says Bitcoin may not have bottomed yet, and a "real bottom" is hard to see before October, predicting increased market divergence

Renowned trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt, who successfully predicted the Bitcoin crash in 2018, stated that the Bitcoin market may not have reached its true bottom yet, and "the real bottom may not appear until October 2026." He previously predicted that Bitcoin could drop to the $60,000 range in the third quarter of 2026.Brandt believes that prices may oscillate upward in the short term, but could still fall back to the $50,000 high range within the year. Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes pointed out that Ethereum prices may continue to consolidate in the current range until dollar liquidity improves. As of the time of writing, Ethereum is priced at about $1,941, with a decline of over 40% in the past 30 days. However, Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, believes that Ethereum is currently in an attractive accumulation zone and emphasized that stablecoin trading volume has increased by about 200% over the past 18 months.In terms of market predictions, Polymarket data shows that there is a 41% probability that Bitcoin will fall below $60,000 by the end of February, while the probability of returning to $75,000 is 29%. Within 2026, the probability of Bitcoin returning to $120,000 is 23%, and the probability of breaking $150,000 is only 10%. For Ethereum, the market expects a 76% probability of it reaching $1,500 in 2026, and a 23% probability of dropping to $1,600.

Viewpoint: Bitcoin's decline raises concerns about a four-year cycle, but a deep bear market may be hard to replicate

According to The Block, research institution K33 analysis points out that despite Bitcoin's decline of about 40% from last year's peak, raising concerns about a repeat of the past four-year cycle downturn, several structural factors make it unlikely for the market to experience a deep bear market similar to the 80% declines seen in 2018 or 2022.The report believes that the key difference in the current environment compared to previous cycles is the increased institutional adoption, continuous inflows into regulated products (such as spot ETFs), and a loose interest rate environment. More importantly, there has not been a forced deleveraging event that triggered a systemic market collapse like GBTC, Luna, or FTX.On the technical side, analysts view approximately $74,000 as the current key support level. If this level is breached, the downside risk may intensify, with targets potentially pointing to $69,000 or even $58,000 (near the 200-week moving average). Meanwhile, some common bottoming signals are beginning to emerge: Bitcoin recorded a high spot trading volume of over $8 billion on February 2, while the derivatives market's open interest and funding rates have also entered extreme negative territory. These signals, combined with prices still above support levels, may indicate that the market is attempting to form a bottom.

Next week's macro outlook: CPI hard-hitting the Federal Reserve's firepower, geopolitical tensions facing the index sell-off wave

According to Jinshi reports, in the first full trading week of 2026, cross-asset prices rose in sync, and Wall Street's risk sentiment is thriving again. The appetite for risk among investors is evident. The S&P 500 index rose 1.6% this week, while the Russell 2000 index increased by 4.6%. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) attracted $10 billion in just a few days—an astonishing pace for a passive fund. These mark a good start for the year.On Tuesday at 21:30, the U.S. December unadjusted CPI year-on-year, seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month, seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month, and unadjusted core CPI year-on-year;On Wednesday at 21:30, the U.S. November retail sales month-on-month, U.S. November PPI year-on-year/month-on-month, and U.S. third-quarter current account;On Thursday at 21:30, the U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10, the U.S. January New York Fed/Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and the U.S. November import price index month-on-month.In addition, Federal Reserve officials will be speaking intensively next week, and it is unlikely that rates will be cut before Powell's successor takes office, as detailed in the attached image. Strategists at Bank of America Global Research stated that Friday's data reinforced their belief that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates again before the successor to Chairman Powell takes office.Next week, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio plans to meet with officials from Denmark and Greenland. The nationwide unrest in Iran (including the capital Tehran) triggered by anti-government protests may also impact market risk sentiment in the short term.
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