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Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that since the bullish position at $86,000, the market has repeatedly tempted buyers during the pullback, yet he insists on resting, not trying to earn speculative money, and not seizing every opportunity. Missing out is always better than making a mistake. He still holds the previous view that a pullback is expected here but not to short. If Bitcoin falls below $82,000, it may touch three support levels at $79,000, $75,000, and $71,000.There is also a possibility that Bitcoin ends the pullback with fluctuations instead. Regardless, Liquid Capital does not operate, neither going long nor short.

Famous trader Killa stated that he does not believe Bitcoin will hit new lows again and is currently maintaining a long position. However, after the U.S. midterm elections, the market may still experience some de-risking behavior, so it is not the right time to establish hedge short positions in advance.Historically, Bitcoin's performance has been weak after every U.S. midterm election cycle. However, if Bitcoin continues to rise before the elections, traders can wait until the midterm elections are closer to decide whether to take action based on the price trends at that time.He believes that a more reasonable strategy right now is to continue holding long positions and observe market reactions before and after the midterm elections, and then consider whether to establish hedge short positions, rather than shorting in advance solely based on historical cycles.

Cryptocurrency analyst Darkfost stated that over the past decade, the volatility of Bitcoin prices around the "Power Law" trend line is gradually decreasing, and market cycle fluctuations are converging. The oscillation indicator peak has dropped from +169 in 2018 to +102 in 2025, with its daily standard deviation decreasing from 4.81 to 2.47, a decline of about 49%.Darkfost added that as of the current model's oscillation indicator at +34.5, the Bitcoin price is approximately $84,700. According to the model parameters for that day, an oscillation indicator of +100 corresponds to a Bitcoin price of about $157,800, which is approximately 86% higher than the current price. He also pointed out that $157,800 is not a fixed target price but rather a reference level calculated based on the current regression parameters. If the Power Law trend line continues to rise in the future, this reference price will also increase accordingly.

According to Bitcoin.com, the Brazilian presidential election will be held on October 4, and the results may influence the direction of the country's cryptocurrency policies, which have the highest global adoption rate. Current President Lula will face off against former President's son Flavio Bolsonaro.If current President Lula is re-elected, it is expected that he will strengthen regulatory and compliance requirements, as the central bank has intensified oversight of exchanges and may push for taxation on stablecoin transactions (which had been postponed due to the election). If former President's son Flavio Bolsonaro wins, his stance on cryptocurrency is unclear, with no record indicating that he has ever mentioned cryptocurrencies. However, he has previously defended individuals associated with the "Bitcoin Pharaoh" pyramid scheme.

Analyst Murphy pointed out that BTC has consecutively formed doji candles on the daily chart, with rare upper and lower wicks. Data shows that on August 1, two notable accumulation bars appeared in the range of $62,000 to $63,000, totaling approximately 1.68 million BTC, with a concentration of 12.9%; on October 3, two prominent accumulation bars also appeared in the range of $83,000 to $84,000, totaling approximately 1.52 million BTC, and the concentration has risen to 12%, with the upper warning zone close at hand.After this set of data combinations appeared on August 1, BTC rose from $60,000 to $80,000 in just 17 days. Murphy believes that the accumulation and rising concentration do not indicate a definite direction, but the probability of "amplified volatility" is increasing. It is expected that a significant event may occur in the market within a short period of 1 month or a longer period of 2 months.

Doctor Profit stated that it has shorted BTC at $86,200 and plans to add short positions in the range of $86,500 to $89,500, with the current target price still at $79,000.

U.S. President Donald Trump has once again promised that if the Republican Party wins the House of Representatives and the Senate in the midterm elections, every adult American citizen will receive a $5,000 dividend. This plan was previously proposed by Trump and remains a campaign promise.When asked whether this funding requires Congressional approval, Trump stated that they believe it does not; if it does, Congress will approve it. He also set a prerequisite that the funds must be spent within the United States, expressing a desire that this money does not flow to other countries, and claimed that this initiative will inject momentum into the economy.Based on approximately 240 million adult American citizens, the plan is expected to cost about $1.2 trillion, making it one of the largest economic stimulus plans in the U.S. since the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to the South China Morning Post, former U.S. officials stated that Chinese semiconductor factories have stockpiled hundreds of immersion lithography machines worth billions of dollars in recent years and urged Washington and its allies to stop further exports. The Centre for Technology & Statecraft, established in August 2026, released a report in late September estimating that by early 2026, Chinese wafer fabs had acquired approximately 343 immersion deep ultraviolet lithography systems. The report was co-authored by former U.S. export control official Nicholas Brown and former White House and Department of Commerce technology policy advisor Saif Khan.The report estimates that about 270 of these are ASML Twinscan NXT:1980i. The authors claim that although these devices lag behind extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, they can be modified for the production of 7-nanometer logic chips and advanced memory required for artificial intelligence processors (including Huawei's Ascend series). Chinese wafer fabs spent over $13 billion in 2024 to purchase about 90 NXT:1980i units, and acquired another 89 units in 2025. ASML disclosed that, by destination, China accounted for 41% of its net system sales in 2024, 33% in 2025, dropping to 19% in the first quarter of 2026 and 14% in the second quarter.Since September 2023, the Netherlands has required export licenses for the NXT:2000i and more advanced immersion deep ultraviolet equipment, effectively banning these models from being shipped to China; a year later, the licensing requirements were extended to the NXT:1980i, but this model can still be approved for shipment on a case-by-case basis.

Analyst Ali posted on platform X that Bitcoin recently faced resistance at $87,000, during which whales took profits and sold over 30,000 BTC. At the same time, $87,000 is also the upper boundary of the price channel that has been suppressing BTC for more than the past two weeks.Ali stated that in the short term, attention should be focused on the lower boundary of the channel at around $82,500. If BTC falls back to this level and whales begin to accumulate again, it will serve as a confirmation signal for considering buying on dips, with the next rebound target looking towards $87,000.

ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood stated that the cost reductions brought about by innovative platforms such as AI will gradually transmit to broader economic sectors, enhancing productivity and corporate profitability, and driving inflation rates down to levels below most investors' expectations, a phenomenon referred to as "benign deflation."Cathie Wood believes that the current AI inference costs are decreasing by 99.99% annually while maintaining performance levels. Meanwhile, OpenAI's annual revenue run rate has increased from $20 billion to $70 billion, indicating that the decline in costs is driving rapid growth in demand.ARK Invest expects that real GDP growth rates could reach high single digits, although this prediction seems "crazy" to most people; in a stronger real growth environment, interest rates may actually rise.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X platform that Canary has just revised the Pepe ETF application documents again, which may be another sign that the crypto winter has ended. A few months ago, the market wouldn't even consider launching the Pepe ETF, but now the market feels safer for testing.

Darkfost posted on platform X that Bitcoin is approaching the average cost price of two types of holding groups: investors holding for 18 months to 2 years have an average cost price of about $88,350, while investors holding for 6 to 12 months have an average cost price of about $89,200.Darkfost pointed out that the cost price is the average holding cost of the group, not a natural support or resistance level; as the price approaches this range, the behavior of related investors may change, and this area can be seen as a potential risk zone. The group of investors holding for 6 to 12 months has overall been at a loss for nearly a year, with some investors possibly having bought in at market peaks; some investors may sell after breaking even, while others may continue to buy to lower their holding costs.

Aave founder Stani Kulechov expressed disappointment on the X platform regarding the responses from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the European Banking Authority (EBA) to the MiCA consultation. He stated that both institutions not only advocate for banning stablecoin payment yields but also propose restrictions on crypto asset service providers (CASP) offering users access to DeFi, including services involving non-MiCA authorized stablecoin yield protocols.Kulechov indicated that the relevant opinions also involve restricting DeFi services to specific user groups through "suitability tests" and potentially establishing a certification system for DeFi lending protocols. He believes that if regulators decide which protocols are suitable for European users, it could lead to more closed ecosystems, weakening the liquidity and network effects of open DeFi, and limiting opportunities for European users to participate in on-chain finance.

According to Cointelegraph, Arthur Hayes stated that U.S. policymakers may support the AI industry and government debt financing by increasing the money supply, driving up cryptocurrency prices. If China shifts from limited tightening to large-scale monetary stimulus, it may also boost demand for scarce assets. He is also paying attention to financial pressures in France, including credit default swaps related to BNP Paribas and the spread of French government bonds.Catrina Wang, General Partner at Portal Ventures, stated that banks and asset management companies have an advantage in on-chain financial markets due to existing customer relationships. Todd McDonald, co-founder of R3, pointed out that public chains can help institutions reach customers beyond their own networks. Justin Kugel, Executive Vice President of Growth at World Liberty Financial, mentioned that the demand for asset management and investment evaluation still leaves room for intermediaries.Chetan Karkhanis, Senior Vice President of Digital Asset Client Relations at Franklin Templeton, stated that the company has no intention of issuing its own stablecoin and hopes to provide investment returns through tokenized money market funds. Haonan Li, co-founder and CEO of Codex, stated that trade routes connecting Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Asia are driving demand for stablecoin payments, with buyers paying eastward and manufactured goods flowing westward.Ilya Podoynitsyn, co-founder and CEO of FinHarbor, stated that companies need to confirm they have long-term idle funds that do not affect daily operations before allocating cryptocurrency assets. Michael Camarda, Chief Development Officer of SharpLink, an Ethereum treasury company, stated that both stock buybacks and increasing ETH holdings can enhance the per-share ETH ownership, and the company employs both methods to meet the preferences of institutional and retail investors.

According to Cointelegraph, U.S. President Trump stated in an interview with Time magazine that the U.S. government may consider holding shares in OpenAI and Anthropic, taking a similar approach to its previous investment in Intel.When asked whether he would consider nationalizing cutting-edge AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, Trump explicitly denied it, but indicated that the government "might" consider taking a stake.

Bonk Guy posted on the X platform that Super Inu (SI) has surpassed 60,000 holders within a week of its launch, with over 30,000 new holders in a single day. In the past two days, the on-chain trading volume exceeded 110 million USD, and the cumulative on-chain trading volume in the past seven days is approximately 163 million USD. He stated that no other meme coin has reached similar data during this cycle and in the past year.Regarding the decline in SI's price, Bonk Guy added that SI's market capitalization had previously risen from 3 million USD to 70 million USD and is currently undergoing a very healthy correction. He believes that a market cap of 100 million USD could become the next target of attention and is optimistic about its future performance. According to market news, SI's market cap is currently reported at 34.46 million USD, with a drop of over 22% in the last 24 hours.

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that if Kaliningrad is directly attacked, Russia will consider using all weapons owned by the state. Putin said that the recent warning from the Russian Foreign Ministry is a response to the pressure actions by the West. NATO responded by stating that Russia's "irresponsible nuclear rhetoric" is unacceptable and will continue to defend the territory of its allies.