non-farm

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a themed live broadcast today at 20:00 titled "Non-Farm Payrolls Surprise Ignites Rate Cut Trading: Which Will Break Through First Among U.S. Stocks, Gold, and BTC?" At that time, crypto KOLs such as Pump Pump Superman, Xiao Zhi, 77, and Grace will be invited to attend, discussing the unexpected changes in non-farm data, the rising expectations for rate cuts in the market, and the interlinked trends of the three major assets: U.S. stocks, gold, and BTC. They will analyze market trading opportunities and potential risks under changes in macro liquidity.

Wintermute released a market update indicating that the U.S. non-farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000 in July, significantly weaker than market expectations, leading to a drop in September rate hike expectations from 55% to 40%, and driving a broad rebound in risk assets.Gold led the gains, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, Bitcoin, and altcoins generally rising, while Brent crude oil fell by 6.85%.

The non-farm data is a significant positive, gold prices challenge the 4,380 mark, and the last hope for bears has not yet been shattered.

Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos stated that for the Federal Reserve, the July employment report will be a difficult data set to interpret. New evidence that the labor market has not re-accelerated may weaken the urgency for a rate hike next month, but this still depends on better inflation data.The decline in the unemployment rate will continue to keep the market focused on inflation data. Whether price pressures are rising or falling will determine if more officials conclude that they cannot maintain their inflation target forecasts with interest rates unchanged. A moderate inflation report will strengthen the rationale for keeping rates unchanged (as two consecutive months of moderate data begin to show a trend rather than noise). Conversely, strong data would call the forecasts into question again and give officials opposing a rate hike the opportunity to seek a fourth vote in favor.

U.S. July seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls decreased by 23,000, expected 80,000, previous value revised from 57,000 to 20,000.

The U.S. unemployment rate and non-farm data for July will be released at 20:30 Beijing time tonight. Institutions forecast the U.S. July non-farm employment population as follows:Vanguard: +10,000; Berenberg Bank: +40,000; Scotiabank: +50,000; Moody's Analytics: +50,000;CIBC: +63,000; Deutsche Bank: +65,000; Nordea Bank: +65,000; UBS Group: +70,000;TD Securities: +70,000; Danske Bank: +70,000; Morgan Stanley: +70,000; HSBC Holdings: +70,000;Société Générale: +75,000; ING: +75,000; Bank of Montreal: +75,000; Goldman Sachs Group: +75,000;JPMorgan Chase: +75,000; Daiwa Capital: +75,000; Westpac Banking: +75,000; Standard Chartered Bank: +75,000;Panasonic Macro: +75,000; U.S. Bank: +75,000; Imperial Commercial Bank: +75,000; High-Frequency Economics: +78,000;Sumitomo Mitsui: +78,000; Oxford Economics: +80,000; Commonwealth Bank of Australia: +80,000; Bank of America Merrill Lynch: +80,000;ANZ Bank: +80,000; Lloyds Bank: +80,000; National Westminster: +85,000; Capital Economics: +90,000;Wells Fargo: +95,000; Barclays Bank: +100,000; Deutsche Bank: +100,000; Société Générale: +105,000;Citigroup: +115,000; Mizuho Securities: +115,000; Nomura Securities: +130,000; Reuters expectation: +80,000.

Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang pointed out in a live broadcast that this week's market focus has shifted from tech stock earnings reports back to U.S. employment data and Fed policy expectations.The key to this non-farm report is not just the number of new jobs added, but whether the unemployment rate, average hourly wage, and previous values' revisions collectively indicate a "orderly cooling" or "significant slowdown" in the labor market.Lewis Huang stated that if non-farm employment and wage data are both stronger than expected, the market will lower short-term rate cut bets, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar are expected to strengthen, while gold and high-valuation tech stocks will face pressure; conversely, if employment, wages, and previous values' revisions all weaken, the market will raise expectations for Fed easing, and gold and non-U.S. currencies may receive support.He advised CFD traders to avoid chasing orders in the first minute after data is released, and to focus on observing whether the U.S. two-year Treasury yield, the dollar index, and gold form a synchronized confirmation, and to wait for a pullback opportunity after a key price level breakout. The current trading focus is not simply betting on the data's highs and lows, but rather judging how the non-farm report will change the market's pricing of the Fed's policy path.

According to Jinshi reports, multiple important economic data and events will be released this week. On Monday, China's July Manufacturing PMI and the U.S. June Construction Spending Month-on-Month will be announced; on Tuesday, attention will be on the U.S. June Trade Balance and JOLTs Job Openings; on Wednesday, the U.S. ADP Employment Change and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be released; on Thursday, Switzerland's unemployment rate and the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims will attract attention; on Friday, key data including the U.S. July Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Payrolls will be announced. In addition, SpaceX's financial report will be released after the U.S. stock market closes on Tuesday.

According to Jinshi, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 57,000 in June, lower than the market expectation of 110,000, and the previous value was revised from 172,000 to 129,000.

According to Jinshi, Capital.com analyst Daniela Hathorn stated in a report that the upcoming U.S. PCE data and non-farm payroll report will determine whether the current rise of the dollar has further room to grow.She pointed out that if inflation and labor market data continue to support the narrative that interest rates will remain high for a longer period, the dollar should continue to receive support. Conversely, if price pressures begin to ease more quickly, the market may question whether the current interest rate expectations are too aggressive.

According to Jinshi reports, Huatai Securities' research report states that in May 2026, the United States added 172,000 non-farm jobs, higher than Bloomberg's consensus expectation of 85,000, with the cumulative revision for the previous two months being 93,000. The unemployment rate and labor participation rate in May remained at 4.3% and 61.8%, respectively, both in line with expectations; hourly wage growth month-on-month increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.3%, while year-on-year decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.4%, also in line with expectations. The market's pricing for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes this year has significantly intensified. Huatai Securities maintains the view that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the second half of the year, with possible rate hikes next year.

According to Gate market data, the United States achieved strong job growth again in May, raising concerns about a possible interest rate hike later this year, with spot gold falling more than 3% during the day. Stephen Brown, an economist at Capital Economics, stated that as long as there is no large-scale unemployment panic in the labor market this summer, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing several interest rate hikes later in the year seems to be increasing. Meanwhile, the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have stalled, and renewed conflicts in the Middle East continue to push up oil prices and exacerbate inflation concerns, further strengthening market expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a longer period.

According to Jinshi reports, U.S. President Trump stated that the recently released employment report is very strong, and the stock market should rise, not fall. This has been the case for the past 200 years. Economic growth does not mean inflation.