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Crypto analyst Ali Charts posted that, based on Bitcoin's four-year cycle, he expects BTC to reach the market bottom between October 6 and 16.He believes that before the final capitulation phase arrives, investors should develop a dollar-cost averaging strategy in the range of $62,000 to $48,000, gradually accumulating Bitcoin. He assesses that the current bear market is nearing its end and states that now is the time to start turning bullish.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $65,000 in the event "UFC 330: Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson" for the match "Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this bet is 65%.

Hawaii will implement a cryptocurrency ATM ban effective October 1, becoming the fourth state in the United States to enact such a ban, aimed at addressing the significant losses caused by digital asset fraud.

AI company Anthropic is holding pre-IPO meetings with potential investors to boost market confidence in its listing plans. Reports indicate that Anthropic is currently valued at approximately $965 billion, and if successful, it could become one of the largest IPOs in history.The company has recently faced several challenges, including intensified competition from low-cost AI systems, strained relations with the Trump administration, and opposition to data center construction in various parts of the United States. Sources reveal that investors have asked Anthropic executives during discussions about how these factors might impact the company's growth. Anthropic's management downplayed the impact of competition from low-cost AI systems, stating that the company will continue to focus on developing cutting-edge AI models.It is reported that Anthropic plans to go public in September or early October, although specific pricing and scheduling details have not yet been announced. Additionally, during the pre-IPO meetings, the company disclosed to some investors that it will further expand into the fields of healthcare and biological AI applications in the future.

ECX developer Paul Sztorc announced that the ECX hard fork will be launched in three phases, rather than the originally scheduled single release on August 23. ECX is a new blockchain that replicates the complete transaction history of Bitcoin at a specified block height. Almost all Bitcoin holders, except for Satoshi Nakamoto's portion of Bitcoin, will receive an equivalent amount of ECX, and the Bitcoin network itself will not change.The first Alpha version will be activated on August 23 at block height 963648, the Beta version will go live on September 20 at block height 967680, and the permanent complete version is scheduled for release on October 31 at block height 973728. Tokens collected during the Alpha and Beta phases can be destroyed and exchanged for official ECX once the permanent chain is launched. The replay protection for ECX remains an optional mechanism; the official wallet will enable this protection and remind users before executing transactions. Paul Sztorc stated that if users ignore the reminder, ECX will replay their Bitcoin transactions, causing the related Bitcoins to follow the user out and transfer to new holders; October 31 also marks the 18th anniversary of Satoshi Nakamoto's publication of the Bitcoin white paper.

The founder of the Liebit Mining Pool (B.TOP), Jiang Zhuoer, made a prediction about the bottom of this bear market based on the previous three rounds of Bitcoin bull and bear cycles: "According to historical data fitting, the decline ratios for the four cycles are: 86.9%, 84.1%, 77.6%, 65.1% (this round prediction), corresponding to a BTC price of $44,016, expected to occur on October 31."

The renowned crypto event TOKEN2049 will be held from October 7 to 8 at Marina Bay Sands in Singapore, expected to attract 25,000 attendees from over 7,000 companies across 160 countries, featuring 500 booths, 300 speakers, and over 1,000 side events.TOKEN2049 co-founder Alex Fiskum stated that this year's Dubai event has been postponed to 2027, and the team will fully focus on the Singapore event. In addition, a 36-hour hackathon TOKEN2049 Origins and the NEXUS startup competition will be held during the event week, with well-known venture capital firms such as Dragonfly, Multicoin, and Maelstrom serving as judges.

According to Jinshi, the U.S. Treasury stated that the cash balance may peak at around $1.05 trillion in October.

According to Yahoo Finance, the "Financial Supervisory Commission" of Taiwan has announced that starting from October 2026, virtual asset service providers (VASP) in Taiwan must implement the Travel Rule when transferring virtual assets. For transfers exceeding 30,000 New Taiwan Dollars, the transferring party must not only provide basic transaction information but also additional details such as the customer's date of birth and residence for the receiving party to verify identity.This measure will be implemented in phases—starting in October this year, transfers between VASPs within the region will be prioritized, while transfers between VASPs at other addresses are expected to be implemented by the end of 2027. If operators fail to incorporate the relevant processes into their internal control systems or do not implement data transmission, they may face fines ranging from 500,000 to 10 million New Taiwan Dollars under the Anti-Money Laundering Act.

According to Jinshi reports, Premier Li Qiang recently signed a State Council order, announcing the revised "Regulations on the Protection of Integrated Circuit Layout Designs," which will officially take effect on October 15, 2026.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, the "2026 Ballon d'Or Winner" event is currently among the hottest trading topics on the prediction market Polymarket, with a total pool size reaching $134 million. The option with the highest market consensus is "Lamine Yamal," corresponding to a winning probability of approximately 36.15%.

Analyst Noname tweeted that Bitcoin will not hit bottom this quarter. Sideways fluctuations indicate indecision; at this price level, indecision often leads to a downward breakout first, followed by an upward breakout. At least one more quarter is needed for the market to clarify.His predictions for the trend in 2026 are as follows: July: False stability. Bear market trap rebound. The market reshuffles and eliminates the indecisive. August: The real crash begins. First test of the $50,000 area. September: Continued pressure. W-shaped bottom structure begins to form. October: The real bottom. Accumulation area. Personally, I will adopt an aggressive strategy at this stage. November: Signs of recovery appear, and the bottom rebound begins. December: The first breakthrough of the $100,000 mark since the bear market began.

According to Jinshi reports, traders have postponed their bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate hike until October.

According to Caixin, the case involving Qian Zhimin and 60,000 bitcoins held a three-day hearing from July 7 to 9, 2026. In the next phase, the focus of the case will gradually shift to evidence and tracing of assets, with substantive hearings expected to begin gradually after October this year.The court will focus on: 1. How the RMB investment funds entered Lantian Ge Rui and related accounts; 2. How the funds were gathered, transferred, and exchanged; 3. Which funds have a provable connection to the bitcoins seized in the UK; 4. The losses, repayments, and existing compensation situations of each applicant; 5. What specific property relationship exists between individual investors, Lantian Ge Rui, and the bitcoins involved in the case. Analysts believe that after the legal dispute was applied in July this year and the judge made a ruling, the case will gradually shift from "what law to judge by" to "whether the evidence can prove the rights."

Citigroup Research stated in the U.S. Economic Weekly published on July 2 that the U.S. non-farm payroll data for June showed a significant weakening, strongly refuting the necessity for interest rate hikes. Citigroup believes that several factors that previously supported a hawkish stance, including rising oil prices, accelerated wage growth, and core PCE above target, have gradually faded, stating that "the reasons for rate hikes have disappeared."Data shows that in June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 57,000 jobs, far below expectations, and the data for the previous two months was revised down by a total of 74,000 jobs. After revision, the average monthly growth of non-farm payrolls over the past three months has dropped to about 111,000, a significant decline from over 180,000 before the revision. The unemployment rate in June fell from 4.296% to 4.189%, but Citigroup believes this is mainly due to the labor participation rate dropping from 61.8% to 61.5%. If the participation rate remains unchanged, the unemployment rate would actually rise to above 4.5%.Regarding inflation, Citigroup stated that multiple factors are collectively suppressing price pressures. Oil prices have fallen back to pre-conflict levels, and July CPI and PCE data are expected to show a month-on-month decline; further slowing of housing rents will also drag down core CPI and core PCE. In addition, the revision of the core PCE methodology will adopt a more reasonable price adjustment approach for AI-related goods. Citigroup estimates that the year-on-year growth rate of the revised core PCE may be adjusted down by 20 to 30 basis points, which will be officially reflected in September.Citigroup maintains its baseline forecast, expecting the Federal Reserve to remain on hold at the FOMC meetings in July and September, with the first rate cut of 25 basis points occurring at the meeting on October 28, followed by another 25 basis points cut in December, bringing the federal funds rate range down to 3.0% to 3.25% by the end of the year. Citigroup also expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates three more times in 2027, with a terminal rate range of 2.75% to 3.0%.

According to The Block, the UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) finalized a comprehensive crypto regulatory framework on Tuesday, with a mandatory licensing regime set to take effect on October 25, 2027. The framework covers prudential requirements, market abuse regulation, and stablecoin standards, applicable to crypto trading platforms, custodians, stablecoin issuers, lending and staking service providers, as well as some DeFi companies with identifiable controlling entities.Businesses can apply for authorization between September 30, 2026, and February 28, 2027, and existing anti-money laundering registrations will not automatically convert. Regarding trading platform rules, the FCA requires UK-qualified crypto asset trading platforms to conduct due diligence, meet entry standards, and publish disclosure documents, while removing the previous exemption that allowed fungible crypto assets to be listed without disclosure documents. Market abuse rules cover insider trading and market manipulation.For stablecoins, the FCA has removed the obligation to forecast the redemption of reserve assets, allowed limited group internal custody arrangements, and reduced the K-SII capital ratio for stablecoin issuance from 2% to 1%. Crypto assets on qualified platforms will be subject to a unified 40% net risk exposure requirement and a 40% counterparty default volatility adjustment. FCA's Director of Payments and Digital Finance, David Geale, stated that the framework is an important milestone for crypto regulation in the UK, providing regulatory certainty while allowing businesses to maintain innovation space.

Data shows that on October 11, insider whale Garrett Jin still holds a 5x leveraged long position of 1,270 BTC. This position was opened in May this year at a price of $76,117 and has been held for nearly 2 months. Currently, this trade has an unrealized loss of over $18.55 million, with a margin size of $15.6 million, and the liquidation price is temporarily reported at $16,964.