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LINK $9.09 -1.85%
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AAVE $100.56 -0.53%
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XLM $0.1571 +0.93%
ZEC $357.23 -1.68%

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Analysis: The prospects for US-Iran talks are bleak, but a narrow path to reaching an agreement still exists

According to Jinshi Data, the prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran war remain bleak, but analysts believe that there is still a channel for reaching an agreement.Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan, as mediators, are pushing for US and Iranian officials to meet as soon as this week. US President Trump and his political allies have expressed a positive attitude towards negotiations. It is reported that the US and Israel have temporarily removed Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf from the assassination list for 4 to 5 days to create conditions for the negotiations to start.The demands of both sides after the war have significantly exceeded their pre-war positions. Iran demands that the US compensate for war damages, close military bases in the Middle East, and charge shipping companies passing through the Strait of Hormuz; the US demands that Iran stop uranium enrichment, restore freedom of navigation in the Strait, and limit its missile program and support for regional militias.Analysts believe that if both sides determine that the cost of war is unbearable, they may first reach a ceasefire agreement and postpone core issues such as uranium stock disposal, verification mechanisms, and sanctions relief to subsequent negotiations. Michael Singh from the Washington Institute stated that a path for a minimum ceasefire agreement to proceed alongside a complete agenda is still feasible.

Gate CBO Kevin Lee: Oil prices move first, inflation follows, and the central bank's path is the ultimate variable

Gate CBO Kevin Lee recently published an article titled "War, War Never Changes... How Will the Macro Market Move?" regarding the recent situation in the Middle East. He pointed out that geopolitical conflicts themselves do not alter the fundamental operating logic of the market; what truly determines the medium-term direction of assets is the impact of the prolonged conflict on the inflation path and changes in central bank policy orientation.Kevin stated that within hours to days after the outbreak of conflict, crude oil typically experiences significant volatility first, as the market prices in the tail risk of supply disruptions; gold then activates, serving both as a safe haven and an inflation hedge; the stock market faces short-term pressure, with VIX rising rapidly and significant sector divergence.As the situation progresses from several days to two weeks, if energy supply is not continuously damaged, oil prices and risk premiums often retrace, and stocks and crypto assets rebound with the recovery of risk sentiment; however, if high oil prices persist for an extended period, inflation expectations will be systematically elevated, shifting the asset pricing logic from a trading perspective to a macro perspective.The article further emphasizes that what truly changes the trend is not the market reaction on the day of the conflict but the inflation data and policy expectations that gradually emerge weeks later. Over a longer cycle, the market will reprice around the evolution path of inflation, the credibility of monetary policy, and the economic growth outlook. Historical experience repeatedly proves that in high-uncertainty environments, emotional decision-making often comes at a high cost; understanding the transmission sequence and respecting cyclical patterns are key to navigating volatility.
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