Scan to download
BTC $68,363.02 -0.94%
ETH $1,972.28 -1.88%
BNB $617.85 -0.09%
XRP $1.49 -2.07%
SOL $84.45 -3.39%
TRX $0.2805 +0.08%
DOGE $0.1004 -7.02%
ADA $0.2829 +0.08%
BCH $559.80 +1.06%
LINK $8.80 -0.40%
HYPE $30.27 -1.78%
AAVE $126.19 +0.16%
SUI $0.9693 -0.78%
XLM $0.1690 -1.18%
ZEC $295.01 -0.38%
BTC $68,363.02 -0.94%
ETH $1,972.28 -1.88%
BNB $617.85 -0.09%
XRP $1.49 -2.07%
SOL $84.45 -3.39%
TRX $0.2805 +0.08%
DOGE $0.1004 -7.02%
ADA $0.2829 +0.08%
BCH $559.80 +1.06%
LINK $8.80 -0.40%
HYPE $30.27 -1.78%
AAVE $126.19 +0.16%
SUI $0.9693 -0.78%
XLM $0.1690 -1.18%
ZEC $295.01 -0.38%

react

Trump's support for cryptocurrency triggers a chain reaction, with a large influx of radical crypto companies entering the stock market

According to The New York Times, as U.S. President Trump openly embraces cryptocurrency, his policies and personal statements are profoundly changing the structure of the U.S. capital markets. A large number of new public companies centered around crypto assets are rapidly emerging, while also amplifying market risks.Trump claims to be the "first crypto president." After taking office, he terminated the previous strict regulations on the crypto industry, promoted pro-crypto legislation, and publicly endorsed crypto investments multiple times, even launching a meme coin named TRUMP himself. This series of actions has quickly brought the previously marginal crypto industry into the mainstream financial system.Against this backdrop, more than 250 public companies have already begun to incorporate cryptocurrencies into their balance sheets this year, amassing large amounts of Bitcoin and other digital assets to attract investor attention. Some companies even lack mature core businesses, with their primary "business model" being to hold crypto assets and bet on their price increases.Analysts point out that, unlike previous crypto bull markets that were mainly limited to exchanges and retail investors, under Trump's policy push, crypto risks are spreading to a broader range of investors through the stock market. The tightening of regulations, the strengthening of political endorsements, and the structural "cryptoization" of public companies are prompting investors to take on higher volatility and valuation risks.

4E: Japan's interest rate hike expectations trigger a chain reaction, Bitcoin falls below 84,000, and the end of QT by the Federal Reserve becomes a key variable

According to 4E observations, market sentiment suddenly turned cold on December 1, with Bitcoin briefly dropping to $83,786, a nearly 30% decline from the early October peak. The core trigger came from a sharp rise in expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan: traders priced in a 76% chance of a rate hike in December, and nearly 90% for January next year. After Ueda Kazuo signaled "preemptive tightening," Japan's two-year government bond yield rose to a 16-year high, and funds began to rapidly adjust for a potential policy shift. The rate hike expectations have backfired on global risk assets, with yen carry trades seen as a potential systemic risk point—markets still remember the turmoil caused by the yen's sharp rise in August this year, which triggered a global chain sell-off.Another heavy blow came from MicroStrategy (MSTR). The company announced a cash reserve of $1.44 billion and for the first time acknowledged the possibility of selling Bitcoin under certain conditions, shaking its core narrative of "never selling." The stock plummeted by 12% at one point. Although it still increased its holdings by 130 BTC last week, the pressure from debt combined with market turbulence has made sentiment more sensitive.On the macro front, the probability of a 25bp rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December rose to 87.6%, and QT will officially end today. Over the past two years, QT has withdrawn more than $2 trillion in liquidity, and stopping the balance sheet reduction is seen as a key event for the current liquidity bottom, which may help ease short-term market panic.4E Commentary: The expectations of a rate hike in Japan and MSTR's "selling" hint have triggered a rapid repricing of sentiment, compounded by declining trading volumes and the looming risk of yen carry trades, leaving the short-term market in a fragile range. The end of QT by the Federal Reserve is one of the few positive signals, which will determine whether risk assets can enter a "policy buffer period." A restoration of risk appetite will need to wait for the implementation of Japanese policies and a stabilization signal from BTC to resonate.
app_icon
ChainCatcher Building the Web3 world with innovations.