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According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction on Polymarket for the event "Dota 2: 1win vs Team Nemesis - BLAST Slam Group B," the "1win" option in the sub-market "Game 2 Winner" has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 65.5% an hour ago to the current 96.5% (a fluctuation of 31%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Chief Investment Officer Greg Taylor of PenderFund Capital Management stated that the September non-farm report is favorable for the market and essentially rules out the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October.There may still be expectations for a rate hike in December, but it has already been priced in by the market and will not have a significant impact on the market.

After the non-farm payroll data was released, the yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond fell by 2.8 basis points to 5.575%. The 2-year yield dropped by 7.7 basis points to 4.71%. The 10-year yield ultimately decreased by 5.6 basis points to 5.18%.

The decentralized trading protocol Osmosis in the Cosmos ecosystem stated on X that two proposals aim to destroy approximately 17.4 million OSMO, which is equivalent to 65% of the total OSMO that has been destroyed so far.Osmosis indicated that the two proposals will withdraw liquidity from the community pool that is no longer functioning and destroy the recovered OSMO. The project also released proposal discussion links for the community to read and discuss.

Federal Reserve's Logan stated that the policy stance has been off track, and the Federal Open Market Committee should raise interest rates, targeting at least an increase of 50 basis points. Without higher rates, inflation cannot reach the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

According to Cointelegraph, a U.S. federal judge dismissed most of the claims made by the Celsius litigation administrator against the blockchain analytics company Chainalysis, but allowed one to proceed.U.S. District Judge Margaret Garnett of the Southern District of New York ruled on Tuesday, rejecting Chainalysis's request to dismiss the incitement charge, determining that the complaint sufficiently alleges that Chainalysis was aware that a press release issued by Celsius in 2020 contained false statements and assisted in disseminating that information.The court simultaneously dismissed 12 other claims with prejudice, prohibiting the plaintiffs from amending in this case; another 3 consumer protection claims were dismissed without prejudice, requiring the plaintiffs to amend or notify the court by October 20.The lawsuit was initiated by the Blockchain Recovery Investment Consortium (BRIC), which acts as the litigation administrator and claims manager for Celsius's bankruptcy estate, representing Celsius and some former clients in asserting rights. Chainalysis declined to comment to Cointelegraph.The core of the case revolves around a $3.3 billion "audit." In 2020, Celsius used Chainalysis's Reactor software to calculate its managed asset size and publicly announced the results as an audit.According to the complaint outlined by the court, a Celsius executive initially calculated approximately $1.18 billion in assets using Reactor, which later increased to about $3.3 billion due to adjustments in methodology.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, it predicts significant capital movements in the market Polymarket. A large whale invested $52,934.62 in a single transaction regarding the "Federal Reserve's October decision" event, targeting a "25 basis point increase." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this subject is 34.92%.

Cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler stated that the current trading price of Bitcoin is approximately $83,700, which is 14% higher than the cost basis of short-term holders (STH). Data shows that over the past week, the cost basis of short-term holders increased by 1.2%, rising from $72,800 on September 24 to $73,700. Despite the continuous rise in cost basis, short-term holders still maintain an unrealized profit of about 13.7%, down from 15.4% a week ago.Meanwhile, the cost basis of long-term holders (LTH) of Bitcoin decreased from $48,900 to $48,800 over the past week, a decline of about 0.3%, marking one of the faster weekly declines this year. The current Bitcoin price is approximately 72% higher than the cost basis of long-term holders, who still have significant unrealized profit potential. Axel Adler noted that changes in the cost basis of long-term holders are mainly influenced by the duration of holding, and some high-cost chips may have shifted into the short-term holder group, thereby increasing the cost basis of short-term holders. If the weekly change in the cost basis of long-term holders returns to zero, it may indicate that this metric is stabilizing.

Zcash founder Zooko posted that Zcash has issued over 8 million dollars in retroactive grants this round, with millions of dollars awarded to those who contributed to protecting all users during this year's AI vulnerability crisis.The more significant meaning of this funding is that Zcash once again proves that its self-funding and self-governance system is sustainable, resistant to capture, and capable of continuous evolution. Zcash will conduct multiple rounds of similar funding every year in the future while continuously improving the mechanism.

According to CoinDesk, after the U.S. August PCE inflation data came in lower than expected, Bitcoin briefly rose above $85,500, but the rally subsequently retreated as U.S. Treasury yields remained high.Dan Khus, Chief Analyst at LVRG Research, stated that the weaker PCE data reduced the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again in October, leading the market to focus more on policy changes in December, which boosted risk appetite in the crypto market.However, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains close to 5.3%, and the 30-year yield briefly reached its highest level since 2002, limiting Bitcoin's further upside potential.In other crypto assets, HYPE rose about 3% to around $89, DOGE increased nearly 2% to around $0.1; ETH, BNB, TRX, and ZEC saw gains of less than 1%, XRP remained flat at $1.5, and SOL fell nearly 1% to around $119.

Renzo Finance responded to the MetaMask infrastructure security incident, stating that the risks and liquidity of its latest product, Renzo Basis, will not be concentrated in stablecoins or vaults and can be fully verified through on-chain data. Therefore, users do not need to rely on trust in Renzo to confirm that they are not affected by the incident.Renzo stated that ezETH will only be supported by native ETH starting from April 2026. Currently, there are only 214.75 stETH in the withdrawal queue (accounting for 0.5%) with valid claims.Previously, MetaMask indicated that it is handling a security incident affecting some infrastructure, and no immediate threat to MetaMask wallets has been identified. As a precaution, MetaMask is coordinating with customers, partners, and security consultants to proactively withdraw affected validators from its non-custodial staking business and will provide further updates in due course.

The decentralized trading protocol Osmosis in the Cosmos ecosystem announced that the maintenance mode of the past few months is coming to an end, and active development will resume. The team stated that the first step is to streamline the core product, including simplifying the tokenomics, focusing on the treasury, and enabling the network to act faster when needed.Osmosis proposed three adjustments to OSMO, all of which will be submitted for on-chain governance. First, further reduce inflation, decrease the circulation of new OSMO, and stop injecting newly minted OSMO into the community pool, making the network rely more on actual revenue. Second, destroy most of the OSMO held by the community pool, as well as the OSMO previously allocated from the community pool. Third, the treasury will only provide liquidity for the core liquidity pool, with a complete list to be published before the changes take effect.The team also plans to reduce the active validator set to 30, stating that a smaller set helps with security incident response and chain upgrade coordination, and aligns with a low-inflation model. Osmosis stated that streamlining the protocol is to prepare for future expansion, as it remains the central venue for IBC asset trading, and seeks community input on the direction of the next steps.

The spread between the riskiest corporate bonds in the U.S. and U.S. Treasuries has risen by more than 1,000 basis points, higher than the 860 basis points at the beginning of September, marking the first time since the regional banking crisis in 2023.Collin Martin, the Director of Fixed Income Research and Strategy at Charles Schwab, stated that the main driving factor is that the economy is performing well, but not particularly strong, and CCC-rated issuers are the most sensitive to interest rate changes.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the market prediction event on Polymarket "Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Natus Vincere - BLAST Slam Group B", the "Team Nemesis" option in the sub-market "Match Winner" has experienced a sharp fluctuation in win rate, dropping from 54.5% an hour ago to the current 36.5% (a fluctuation of 18%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Cointelegraph, data from Chainalysis shows that in the year leading up to June 2026, Singapore's cryptocurrency economic activity grew by 55.4% year-on-year, reaching a scale of $284 billion, reclaiming its position as the largest crypto economy in Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania amid an overall contraction in the region.The increase was mainly contributed by institutional platforms, with such activities surging by 94% to $60 billion, concentrated among a few market makers, over-the-counter trading firms, and institutional brokers. During the same period, the total crypto economy in the aforementioned region declined by 6.8%.Chainalysis pointed out that the growth of Singapore's institutional ecosystem is highly concentrated, primarily reflected in large transactions on existing platforms rather than the entry of numerous new services. At the same time, Singapore is tightening cryptocurrency regulations while promoting tokenization, stablecoins, and digital asset settlements.In 2025, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) required local crypto companies providing services to overseas clients to obtain licenses or exit the market. StraitsX CEO Tianwei Liu believes this measure curbed speculative activities and increased the proportion of banks and large enterprises applying blockchain in production. MAS is also conducting compliance stablecoin and tokenized bank deposit pilots through the BLOOM program, with Ripple joining on March 25 to test cross-border trade settlements using RLUSD.The Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam excel in small P2P transfers. Chainalysis statistics show that the three countries collectively recorded 5.4 million domestic and international peer-to-peer transfers under $10,000, accounting for 14.4% of global similar transactions, but only representing 2.5% of the global crypto economy.

Bitcoin News posted on platform X that the Box 3 tax bill currently under consideration in the Dutch parliament proposes to tax the actual annual returns on investments, including the appreciation of unsold assets. The Dutch Tax Authority explicitly includes cryptocurrency assets held in personal wallets, exchanges, or third parties when calculating actual returns.The Dutch government is studying a shift to a capital gains tax system, which would tax the appreciation of assets when gains are realized, but stated that the existing proposal for 2028 remains the basis during the review of relevant adjustments.The bill has been passed by the House of Representatives and is still awaiting review by the Senate, with the final system potentially subject to adjustments before 2028.

After the release of U.S. data, the yield curve between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds steepened, with the latest reported at +37.2 basis points.

According to "Du Jia" reported on September 30, ByteDance's Doubao has named its AI personal assistant product "Xiao Dou" and plans to launch an independent app version. This name was confirmed during this summer and is currently still in the internal testing phase, with the final external version possibly subject to adjustments. Sina Technology reported on September 29 that Doubao is accelerating the implementation of personal assistant direction products, planning to deeply integrate the exploration project codenamed "Spell" with Doubao's existing products, with the new product expected to be launched externally relatively quickly. As of the time of publication, Doubao has not responded.From the perspective of the domestic Personal Agent track, Xiao Dou is a part of ByteDance completing the track. The main Doubao app is responsible for general conversations, Doubao Work is aimed at enterprise office use, and Xiao Dou targets consumer-level personal assistants. Previously, it was reported that Tencent was secretly developing Handy Bot, and Alibaba's Qianwen team also proposed creating users' own Personal Agents. Currently, there are no mature mass-produced resident personal agent products in the domestic market, with most still in internal testing or gray preparation stages.

CryptoQuant analyst Zizcrypto stated that the adjusted long-term holder (LTH) MVRV metric has recovered from a shallow pressure zone and is currently back in a profitable state. Data shows that the adjusted MVRV for the long-term holder group with a holding period of 6 months to 10 years continued to compress and remained above 1 in April this year. An MVRV of 1 represents the overall breakeven line for this group, with values above 1 indicating unrealized profits and below 1 indicating unrealized losses.Between June and August, this metric fell below 1 five times, reaching a low of approximately 0.94 on June 30, when the BTC price was around $58,500, while the group's realized price benchmark was about $62,000, which is about 6% below the breakeven line. However, Zizcrypto noted that the duration and magnitude of this pressure were limited, with the metric remaining close to 1 and not entering the deep loss phase for long-term holders seen in 2019 and during 2022-2023. As of September 27, the adjusted LTH MVRV has recovered to about 1.35, with the BTC price around $84,500, while the long-term holders' realized price is about $62,700, indicating that the spot price is approximately 35% higher than this cost basis. The long-term holder group with a holding period of 6 months to 10 years has emerged from a shallow pressure phase below 1 and re-entered an overall profitable state, resembling a recovery after a healthy adjustment rather than a deep or prolonged loss cycle.

Former Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Deputy Eric Saavedra was sentenced to 21 months in prison. The court found that he used law enforcement databases to assist a cryptocurrency trader in carrying out a extortion scheme.In addition to the prison sentence, Saavedra was also ordered to pay $90,984 in restitution, related to his concealment of $373,146 in income from the Internal Revenue Service.