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According to Jinshi, Federal Reserve official Logan stated that he is more concerned about inflation stubbornly remaining high.

According to Ember Monitoring, a certain whale went long on 40,000 ETH (approximately 80.54 million USD) at an average price of 2039 USD, while another whale went long on 60,000 ETH (approximately 120 million USD) at an average price of 2060 USD. The USDT for both addresses was transferred from Tron to Arbitrum, and then deposited into Hyperliquid to go long on ETH. The operational paths are highly consistent, suggesting they may be the same whale/institution making a move.

CryptoQuant data shows that the Bitcoin price has fallen below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with a significant moving average divergence reflecting a correction or "repricing" phase following the previous uptrend. Additionally, CryptoQuant's Price Z-Score is currently -1.6, indicating that the Bitcoin price is below the statistical mean, which typically suggests increased selling pressure and weakened trend momentum. Historically, similar ranges have often corresponded to longer bottoming periods rather than quick rebounds.In the derivatives market, crypto analyst Darkfost pointed out that the seller-dominated pattern is strengthening. Data shows that last Sunday, the monthly net active trading volume (Net Taker Volume) turned significantly negative to -$272 million, while the active buy-sell ratio on Binance dropped below 1, indicating a significant increase in market selling pressure. Currently, futures trading volume is still significantly higher than spot inflows, and the market needs stronger spot buying to trigger a rebound.

Wintermute stated that Bitcoin briefly fell to $60,000 last Monday, erasing all gains since Trump's election. Spot fund flows show significant structural pressure. The Coinbase premium has consistently been in a discount state throughout the market process, persisting since last December, indicating ongoing selling pressure from the U.S.Internal OTC fund flow data also confirms that U.S. counterparties were the main sellers throughout the week, and this trend has been further amplified by continuous ETF fund redemptions. Over the past few months, AI-related assets have been continuously absorbing available market funds, crowding out the allocation space for other asset classes. The phenomenon where crypto assets underperform when AI-related companies rise and experience amplified declines when they fall can almost entirely be explained by the rotation of funds towards the AI sector.For crypto assets to outperform again, AI trading needs to cool down first. Microsoft's weak earnings report has initiated this process, but it is still far from enough. Last week's market was like a "surrender-style" clearing, with volatility soaring and buying support emerging at $60,000. In an environment where spot trading remains relatively low, leverage has become the dominant factor in price fluctuations.If open interest cannot significantly rebound, it will be difficult for the market to form sustained follow-through on either the long or short side. A true structural recovery requires a return of spot demand, but there is currently almost no evidence of this. We are likely entering a phase of high volatility and choppy price discovery. It will be hard to see sustained upward potential until the Coinbase premium turns positive, ETF fund flows reverse, and basis rates stabilize. Meanwhile, retail attention is being diverted to other asset classes, and market direction seems increasingly dominated by institutional fund flows from ETFs and derivatives channels.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset recently publicly criticized Coinbase on Fox News as a "stubborn participant" for opposing the CLARITY Act. Basset emphasized the necessity of passing the CLARITY Act multiple times during last week's Senate Banking Committee hearing, using strong language against the opponents.It is reported that the CLARITY Act aims to clarify the regulatory division of cryptocurrency assets, with the SEC and CFTC overseeing different areas. However, Coinbase is concerned that it may restrict business models such as stablecoin rewards, leading to divisions within the industry.

According to Cointelegraph, the Bitcoin market sentiment index has fallen to an all-time low, with some contrarian investors believing that $60,000 may have become the bottom of this cycle.Data shows that the cryptocurrency fear and greed index dropped to a historical low of 7 over the weekend, indicating that the market is in a state of "extreme fear." Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, pointed out that this indicator, along with the relative strength index, shows that the market is deeply oversold, a similar situation occurred during the 2018 bear market and the pandemic crash in March 2020, which may create conditions for a rebound.CoinGlass's liquidation heatmap shows that if the Bitcoin price rises by about $10,000, it could trigger the liquidation of over $5.45 billion in short positions, while a drop to $60,000 would only trigger $2.4 billion in liquidations. This imbalance may drive a short covering rally. However, structural risks in the market still exist.CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin is still far below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with a price Z-score of -1.6, indicating that it remains in a phase dominated by selling pressure. The net buying volume in the derivatives market has turned negative, and the Binance buy-sell ratio has also fallen below 1, showing strong selling pressure in the futures market.Analysts point out that stronger spot demand is needed to trigger a sustained rebound. From a longer-term perspective, historical data shows that Bitcoin bear market bottoms typically form below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which is currently around $57,000. If history repeats itself, the downside scenario could extend to $42,000.

Matrixport's analysis states that after a round of capitulation selling, Bitcoin is attempting to stage a counter-trend rebound. This round of decline has washed out weak positions and triggered passive selling pressure and chain liquidations in the derivatives market. In the short term, there is still room for a technical rebound; however, whether the rebound can extend further depends on whether there is new capital to take over, rather than relying solely on short covering and systematic hedging funds to sustain it.As previously mentioned, Bitcoin is still in a larger bear market reset phase. During this phase, rapid surges are not uncommon, but they often struggle to sustain. On-chain data continues to confirm that the current environment remains relatively weak: demand momentum is weakening, and structural accumulation is limited. Meanwhile, hedging activities in the options market are heating up, further amplifying volatility. If spot demand remains weak, prices are more likely to experience gap-down movements, and the impact of derivatives on Bitcoin prices will also increase.

The founder of crypto market maker Wintermute, Evgeny Gaevoy, analyzed the unusual fluctuations in the 1-minute charts of Bitcoin and ETH spot markets on February 8th. He indicated that it is likely due to a market-making bot experiencing a liquidation, with losses potentially reaching tens of millions of dollars. The unusual fluctuations were caused by the bot's losses rather than any malicious intent from market makers, and Wintermute was clearly not involved.Evgeny Gaevoy further expressed skepticism regarding rumors of "large institutions facing liquidation" in the market, and even if such cases do exist, they would not have a medium to long-term impact. In contrast to the past collapses of Three Arrows Capital and FTX, where liquidation news spread quickly and there were clear signs indicating the validity of the liquidations, such as institutions seeking rescue, the current market rumors mainly come from anonymous accounts and have not been confirmed by reliable sources.The leverage in this cycle primarily comes from perpetual contracts. Trading platforms no longer take risks with user assets to invest in low-liquidity assets or extend special credit as they did in the past. The tightening of credit has resulted in institutional credit sizes being less than $2 billion, which limits the impact and makes it difficult to trigger a chain liquidation like in 2022.Previous reports indicated that on February 8th, there were unusual fluctuations in the 1-minute charts of Bitcoin and ETH spot markets, with single-minute amplitudes exceeding 1% and even 3% from 00:05 to 00:17.

According to Cointelegraph monitoring, over the weekend, an anonymous individual transferred 2.565 bitcoins to Satoshi Nakamoto's genesis address, worth approximately $181,000.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the market is approaching the level of loss supply seen during the last bear market. Currently, over 9.5 million bitcoins are in a state of loss, while about 10.4 million bitcoins remain in profit. Darkfost also pointed out that the market is about to reach a situation where the number of bitcoins in loss is roughly equal to those in profit, a scenario that last occurred at the end of the bear market in 2022. It is noteworthy that this adjustment is quite significant, with the supply of loss-held bitcoins rapidly increasing.

Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish stated that the Bitcoin long-term holder cost basis heatmap shows a dense support level for Bitcoin above $60,000, where long-term holders are highly concentrated.Further up, around $80,000, there is a dense supply, forming a key resistance level. This range defines the current competitive landscape of the supply chain.

Data shows that Bitcoin has fallen below the 200-week moving average (EMA) and may have entered a deep bear market phase.Nick Ruck, Director of VRG Research, stated that the decline in Bitcoin occurred against a backdrop of heightened risk-averse sentiment, driven by weak signals from the U.S. labor market, including an increase in unemployment claims, raising doubts about the economy's continued strength and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on aggressive rate cuts. Jeff Ko, Chief Analyst at CoinEx Research, pointed out that Bitcoin's over 20% pullback within a week coincided with a sell-off in U.S. tech stocks, as investors reassess Bitcoin's failure to act as a safe haven compared to gold. Overall, market sentiment has significantly weakened in the short term, but institutions and long-term investors are still observing how changes in the macroeconomic and liquidity environment affect crypto assets.

The cryptocurrency market has experienced a phase of recovery after a sharp sell-off, rebounding above $65,000 after hitting a low point, while Ethereum has risen from around $1,750 to near $1,900.On a macro level, the overall pressure on risk assets remains the main backdrop. Recently, technology stocks have weakened, and there has been a decline in risk appetite, while precious metals and crypto assets have fluctuated in sync, further exacerbating the market's deleveraging process. However, panic sentiment has not completely dissipated. Previously, the options market saw extreme protective buying, with some traders even positioning for put options with strike prices as low as $20,000, indicating that the market is still hedging against extreme tail risks.Overall, this round of sharp decline reflects more of a phase of recovery after the clearing of leverage and a contraction in risk appetite. A short-term technical rebound may have occurred, but the mid-term trend still depends on macro liquidity, the performance of technology stocks, and the flow of institutional funds.

According to market news, the number of planned layoffs in the U.S. surged to 108,435 in January, the highest level since January 2009, representing a month-on-month increase of 205% and a year-on-year increase of 118%. This data contrasts with the still-resilient official non-farm payroll report and is seen as an early signal of a rapid cooling in the labor market.Human resources firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas noted that layoff plans are largely set for the end of 2025, reflecting employers' increasingly pessimistic outlook for 2026. At the same time, the blockchain-based real-time inflation indicator Truflation shows that the U.S. inflation rate has plummeted to below 1%, far lower than the official CPI data. These unofficial indicators collectively suggest that economic growth is slowing, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to shift towards interest rate cuts to support the economy.Analysts have differing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's subsequent policies. JPMorgan expects interest rates to remain unchanged until 2027, while other banks predict at least two rate cuts this year. Some economists anticipate that Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve chair nominee by Trump, may cut rates by 100 basis points before the midterm elections in November.The market believes that a potential shift in monetary policy could provide support for risk assets like Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin has currently fallen nearly 50% from its historical high of over $126,000 last October.

The founder of the Bitcoin and digital asset quantitative fund Capriole, Charles Edwards, stated that bullish signals for Bitcoin are emerging. The Bitcoin Mayer Multiple has rarely dropped to around 0.6. Although there is still a possibility for Bitcoin's price to decline further, historically, this range often corresponds to one of the most attractive buying points in Bitcoin's history.Note: The Bitcoin Mayer Multiple is a technical indicator used to analyze the state of the Bitcoin market, proposed by Trace Mayer. It assesses the relative valuation level of the market by comparing Bitcoin's current price to its 200-day moving average (200DMA). Historically, when the Mayer Multiple exceeds 2.4, it usually indicates that the market is overheated, and a correction or bear market may occur. When the Mayer Multiple is below 0.8, the market may be undervalued, potentially signaling a good buying opportunity.

DeFi Dev Corp Chief Investment Officer and Chief Operating Officer Parker White stated on social media, "Yesterday, BlackRock's IBIT trading volume reached $10.7 billion, nearly double the previous highest daily volume, with an options premium of about $900 million, both setting historical records. BTC and SOL fell in tandem, and with lower CeFi liquidations, there are suspicions that this volatility stems from large IBIT holders, possibly one or more non-crypto hedge funds based in Hong Kong.Data shows that some funds have extremely high positions in IBIT, even as single-asset funds, aimed at isolating margin risk. Silver plummeted today, and yen arbitrage trades accelerated liquidation, intensifying market pressure and further affecting fund leverage positions. These funds may be attempting to turn the tide through high-leverage options trading, but losses continue to expand, and ultimately, the decline in Bitcoin may completely crush their positions. Due to the lag in 13F report disclosures, relevant position information is expected to be available by mid-May, but the scale of the event is enormous and difficult to hide in the long term."

According to Cointelegraph, data shows that Bitcoin has fallen below the 200-week moving average (EMA) and may have entered a deep bear market phase.Nick Ruck, director of VRG Research, stated that the decline in Bitcoin occurred against a backdrop of heightened risk-averse sentiment, driven by weak signals from the U.S. labor market, including an increase in unemployment claims, raising doubts about the economy's continued strength and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on aggressive rate cuts.Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx Research, pointed out that Bitcoin's over 20% pullback within a week coincided with a sell-off in U.S. tech stocks, as investors reassess Bitcoin's failure to serve as a safe haven compared to gold.Overall, market sentiment has significantly weakened in the short term, but institutions and long-term investors are still observing the impact of macro and liquidity environment changes on crypto assets.

Santiment's post analysis indicates that Bitcoin has recently experienced a sharp decline, with prices dipping to $60,001 for the first time since 2024. The driving factors behind this may be related to the retreat of major players and the absorption by retail investors.Current market data shows that the holdings of "whales" and "sharks" (medium to large holders) who own between 10 and 100,000 BTC have dropped to 68.04%, marking a new low in nine months. In just the past eight days, this group has sold off as much as 81,068 BTC. Meanwhile, the share of retail wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC has risen to 0.249%, reaching a new high in 20 months. This continued buying by small wallets reflects retail investors' refusal to give up and their eagerness to "buy the dip."This combination of "large holders selling and retail investors buying" has historically been a typical characteristic of bear market cycles. As long as retail investors do not show clear signs of "complete capitulation," institutions and large holders will continue to be willing to sell their positions and will not be in a hurry to buy back until the public has completely lost confidence in cryptocurrencies and exits the market.

According to the official announcement, Bitcoin treasury company Strategy Inc. has released its financial data for the fourth quarter and the full year of 2025. As of February 1, 2026, it holds a total of 713,502 BTC, with a total cost of $54.26 billion, averaging about $76,052 per Bitcoin. The financing for the fiscal year 2025 amounts to $25.3 billion.The fourth quarter financial data shows that the company incurred a loss of $17.4 billion, with a net loss of $12.4 billion, primarily impacted by the decline in digital assets. As of December 31, 2025, the company holds $2.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents. Strategy has established a $2.25 billion dollar reserve, which can cover approximately 2.5 years of dividend and interest expenses.