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Arthur Hayes: AI "Safety First" is essentially a destruction of computing power demand; the U.S. government's ultimate choice in all scenarios is to print money, which ultimately benefits Bitcoin

Arthur Hayes published a new long article titled "Safety First," with the core argument that the claims of "safety first" by Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX, which lead to a slowdown in AGI development, are not out of concern for human welfare but rather due to economic realities. The market does not want AI; it wants AI at "Chinese prices," meaning it needs intelligence that is 100 times cheaper than what is currently available. Hayes points out that "safety first" essentially destroys the demand for computing power. If the spending on training new models decreases and laboratories shift towards efficiency optimization, customers will spend less on computing power. The three major AI laboratories do not generate any profits, and their demand for computing power supports over $10 trillion in investment-grade debt and hundreds of billions in low-quality debt, which rely on profitable tech companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, Google, and Microsoft for off-balance-sheet endorsements. The real backstop is the holders of insurance policies in the United States.Hayes cites an analysis by Nick Nameth that reveals a "self-insurance scam": private equity giants (such as Apollo, KKR, Brookfield, etc.) acquire insurance companies, stuffing AI data center debt and SaaS private credit impacted by AI into insurance assets, and then provide false endorsements with minimal capital through affiliated self-insurance reinsurance companies. Nameth estimates that the total amount of these false reinsurance assets reaches $1.54 trillion. Once the AI data center debt is downgraded by rating agencies due to insufficient demand for computing power, insurance companies will be forced to add capital, while the affiliated reinsurance companies will be unable to pay, leading to insolvency for the insurance companies. In most states in the U.S., the insurance protection limit is only $250,000 to $300,000, and existing insurance companies only pay into the protection fund afterward, which encourages all parties involved to maximize risk-taking. When AIG was bailed out in 2008, TARP funds ultimately flowed to Goldman Sachs and led to record bonuses, while the general public only received foreclosure notices; Hayes believes this scenario will repeat itself.For cryptocurrency investors, the conclusion is a win-win situation. If the U.S. government chooses to become the "last buyer of computing power," it will print money in the name of national security to fund unproductive economic goods, driving up financial speculation and Bitcoin prices; if the government chooses to bail out insolvent insurance companies, it will also need to print money to cover bad AI debts, increasing the money supply and pushing up Bitcoin. Hayes specifically points out that the Federal Reserve voted unanimously last week to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, and RMP bond purchases have stopped since August 14, but commercial banks have taken over to create over $100 billion in currency, and the interest rate hike allows banks to earn an additional $7.5 billion in excess reserve interest each year. This money will be used to expand loans and market speculation, and the net effect remains stimulative. The fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market, which saw a slight increase at the end of August, are about to end, the supply of dollars will continue to grow, and Bitcoin and some selected altcoins will rise. Hayes also described this situation as "incredibly wonderful," stating that the government will not allow the free market to stop building AI data centers, there will be an oversupply of spot computing power, the usage of AI agents will increase, and the surge in money printing will drive investors to chase cryptocurrency assets.

first_img TSMC N2 mass production, Zhongsha Shengyang Semiconductor and other supply chains benefit

TSMC's 2-nanometer N2 mass production marks the transition of advanced semiconductor processes from FinFET to GAA generation. Industry analysts point out that with the simultaneous increase in process complexity, CMP track counts, wafer monitoring frequency, and material specifications, the demand for equipment, CMP consumables, reclaimed wafers, and advanced materials is rising, providing growth opportunities for suppliers like Zhongsha, Shengyang Semiconductor, Xinying Materials, and Songsheng. TSMC's N2 adopts nanosheet GAA technology, which can improve performance by 10% to 15% at the same power consumption compared to N3E, or reduce power consumption by 25% to 30% at the same speed, with chip density increasing by over 15%.In Zhongsha's largest customer Diamond Disk business, advanced processes account for 63%, with N3 and N2 each accounting for 22%, and 1.4 nanometers already shipped in small quantities; after N3 enters N2, the value of CMP content increases by 10% to 15%. Shengyang Semiconductor's monthly production capacity for reclaimed wafers is adjusted to 1.1 to 1.2 million pieces by the end of 2026, with a capital expenditure budget of 4.82 billion yuan for 2026, and it is estimated that the compound annual growth rate for reclaimed wafer expansion from 2025 to 2029 will reach 25% to 30%. Xinying Materials' core products Rinse, BARC, and EBR are expected to see shipments rise seasonally as N2 capacity ramps up, while Songsheng's semiconductor revenue accounted for 66% in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year increase of about 25%, and TSMC-related revenue increased by about 170% year-on-year.

Bitget launched the 8th anniversary "VIP Summit" program, unlocking direct VIP 7 benefits

Bitget launched the "VIP Summit" program on its 8th anniversary, opening a direct channel to VIP 7 for professional traders. Eligible historical high-level VIPs and newly promoted VIPs can apply for a 30-day VIP 7 experience card without needing to upgrade step by step. During the event, completing trading challenges can also extend the VIP 7 experience period to 4 months, with opportunities to receive limited gifts and exclusive dinner invitations.The VIP Summit program is centered around "Ultimate Rates, Ultimate Trading," targeting different types of professional traders such as newly promoted VIPs, other VIPs, and historical VIPs. It establishes three main channels: VIP upgrades, TradFi challenges, and peak privileges, further expanding trading rights and exclusive benefits. VIP benefits include discounts on trading fees, borrowing rates, advanced APIs, unified trading account (UTA) infrastructure, and exclusive VIP services, addressing the core needs of professional traders regarding cost, efficiency, and service.This program is based on research from over 300 VIP users, with trading costs and execution efficiency identified as the most important factors for professional traders, forming the core basis for the event's design. As a key initiative for the next phase of Bitget UEX, this program further focuses on professional and high-net-worth traders, continuously improving the platform's system in terms of trading rights, capital efficiency, and exclusive services. The participation period for the event ends on October 31, and more details can be found on the Bitget official platform.

first_img Coinbase CEO stated that regardless of the voting outcome of the Clarity Act, the cryptocurrency industry will benefit

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated that regardless of the outcome of the U.S. Senate vote on the Clarity Act on September 15, the cryptocurrency industry will gain regulatory clarity. In an interview with CNBC, he mentioned that if the bill passes, the industry will receive legislative support; even if it does not pass, the SEC and CFTC have indicated their readiness to issue rules, and the industry will still gain regulatory clarity around the time of the vote.The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act aims to establish a federal regulatory framework for cryptocurrency exchanges, brokers, and stablecoins by dividing token regulatory authority between the SEC and CFTC. Armstrong noted that the bill has broad bipartisan and industry support, with law enforcement agencies, banks, and cryptocurrency companies all expressing their backing. Key issues previously raised by Coinbase have been resolved. The only outstanding matter is the ethical provisions concerning elected officials holding digital assets; the White House has proposed a plan that includes strong ethical clauses, while Democrats are pushing for further measures, including mandatory asset divestiture, with both sides nearing a resolution.In response to JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's criticism regarding Coinbase's regulatory arbitrage using the bill's stablecoin provisions, Armstrong remarked that critics with large payment businesses are facing "competitive issues" and are "speaking for themselves." He also stated that Goldman Sachs, Bank of New York Mellon, and Fidelity all support the bill.

first_img The strengthening of the Japanese yen suppresses the US dollar index, benefiting Bitcoin and gold in the short term

The Japanese yen has recently strengthened significantly against the US dollar, with the USDJPY exchange rate falling 1.4% to 156.4, continuing a 0.9% decline from Wednesday. The US Dollar Index (DXY) subsequently dropped 0.4% to 99.22, testing its 200-day moving average around 99.1. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin and gold have risen in tandem, contrasting with the traditional understanding that "a stronger yen usually triggers risk-off selling."Analysis indicates that the strength of the yen is beneficial for Bitcoin primarily because it has lowered the US Dollar Index, and a weaker dollar typically supports dollar-denominated assets and eases global financial conditions. However, if the yen's appreciation accelerates, this dynamic may quickly reverse. Over the past decade, traders have borrowed large amounts of cheap yen to make bullish bets on stocks, bonds, and even cryptocurrencies; a disorderly appreciation of the yen could trigger the unwinding of these positions, leading to risk aversion.The rapid appreciation of the yen has previously put pressure on Bitcoin, most notably during the yen carry trade unwinding in August 2024, when Bitcoin fell about 20% within a few days. Currently, traders are increasing their bets that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates from 1% to 1.25% at the meeting on September 18, and it has been reported that US and Japanese authorities have previously intervened to support the yen, suggesting that there is little resistance to further strengthening of the yen.

first_img Gray Scale: Currency depreciation trades will benefit Bitcoin, as the dollar falls to a three-month low

The asset management company Grayscale's crypto research team stated in a report that the so-called "debasement trade" is favorable for Bitcoin. The head of research at the institution, Zach Pandl, pointed out in the report that uncontrolled government debt growth undermines the credibility of fiat currencies, prompting investors to seek alternative stores of value such as physical gold and certain cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin being the primary beneficiary.The report states that U.S. public debt has surpassed $40 trillion, and the Treasury is conducting bond buybacks to alleviate rising borrowing costs, but the core deficit still exists. Grayscale believes this may drive investors towards debasement trades involving Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Zcash. The report also notes that the buybacks themselves indicate a problem—the heavy growth of government debt is driving up borrowing costs, and the Treasury is merely treating the symptoms (rising bond yields) without addressing the root cause of the structural deficit.As Bitcoin began to surge last week, the dollar experienced its worst week in August and fell to a three-month low. As of Friday afternoon New York time, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $77,493, having reached a high of $81,281 earlier in the week; it has remained relatively flat over the past 24 hours but has risen over 20% in the past 30 days.

first_img The price of semiconductor silicon wafers has increased by about 10% for the first time in over three years, benefiting companies like GlobalWafers and other Taiwanese manufacturers

According to the Economic Daily, semiconductor silicon wafers have seen a significant price increase for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic, covering the full range of specifications including 6-inch, 8-inch, and 12-inch, with an increase starting at 10%. Industry insiders believe this is the first price adjustment in over three years, and major Taiwanese silicon wafer suppliers such as GlobalWafers, TSMC, and Hejian are expected to see improvements in revenue and profitability.GlobalWafers stated that recent demand in some end markets has gradually improved, inventory adjustments in the supply chain are healthier than in the past, and market signals are more positive than last year, but prices still depend on the product, specifications, and customer situations. TSMC mentioned that under cost pressures and demand support, they have begun communicating price adjustments with customers, and operations in the second half of the year are expected to outperform the first half. Hejian indicated that they are actively negotiating price adjustments with customers and continuing to promote advanced packaging and related products.Industry analysis suggests that this round of price increases mainly reflects the rebound in chip demand driven by AI, with increased usage in advanced and mature processes, allowing the upstream silicon wafer industry to gradually feel the recovery. Currently, the negotiation progress varies among factories and customers, with some 12-inch polished wafers already subject to new quotes with double-digit percentage increases, and discussions for 8-inch and 6-inch products are also moving in a similar upward direction.
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