bernstein

Research and brokerage firm Bernstein stated that Bitcoin has likely bottomed out and is expected to continue rising, while maintaining its price target of $150,000 by 2026.Despite the stock price dropping 50% from its peak, Strategy (stock code: MSTR) has shown strong resilience, currently holding about 3.6% of the total Bitcoin supply (approximately $53.5 billion). Bernstein believes that MSTR is a high beta investment vehicle for Bitcoin, and its balance sheet is relatively robust. Strategy has not reduced its exposure; instead, it has continued to increase its Bitcoin holdings at recent lows, raising $7.3 billion through financing in 2026 to expand its position.

According to Cointelegraph, investment research firm Bernstein pointed out in its latest report that the core driving force behind Bitcoin's recent rebound is the continuous strengthening of the long-term holder structure.In the past week, BTC rose about 7%, and ETH rose about 9%, outperforming gold and major stock indices. Bernstein attributes this to the ongoing inflow of funds into the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, as well as the continued accumulation by companies like Strategy. In terms of fund inflows, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen three consecutive weeks of net inflows, totaling over $2.1 billion; the net outflow since the beginning of the year has narrowed to about $460 million, while the total assets under management are approximately $92 billion.Regarding the holding structure, according to Glassnode data, about 60% of the Bitcoin supply has not seen on-chain transfers for over a year. Bitcoin Treasuries data shows that ETFs and exchanges collectively hold about 1.6 million BTC, while publicly traded companies hold about 1.15 million BTC. In terms of corporate accumulation, Strategy has accumulated a total of 66,231 BTC since the beginning of the year, costing about $5.6 billion, with an average price of about $85,000, and the total holdings have exceeded 738,000 BTC.

According to CoinDesk, analysts at brokerage firm Bernstein maintain an "outperform" rating on USDC issuer Circle's stock, with a target price of $190, representing about a 60% upside from the current level of $120.The report notes that the adoption of stablecoins is increasingly decoupling from the cryptocurrency market cycle. Despite the market being in a bear phase, the supply of USDC has rebounded to nearly a record $78 billion, and the total market capitalization of dollar-pegged stablecoins remains stable at around $270 billion. Adjusted stablecoin trading volume has increased by over 90% year-on-year, with trading turnover rising, indicating that stablecoins are being used more frequently in scenarios outside of cryptocurrency trading.Payment adoption is the main driver, as stablecoins are gradually being integrated into traditional card networks. Visa currently supports over 130 stablecoin-linked cards across more than 50 countries, with an annual settlement volume of approximately $4.6 billion. AI-driven "proxy finance" could become a new growth theme, as machine-to-machine micropayments between autonomous software agents will require stablecoins as a natural payment rail.

According to The Block, Robinhood's stock price fell on Tuesday after the company reported a year-over-year decline in cryptocurrency business revenue for the fourth quarter. However, analysts from research and brokerage firm Bernstein stated that this weakness reflects a temporary "crypto market tension" and reiterated their target price of $160.Robinhood's total revenue reached an all-time high, but cryptocurrency trading revenue fell 38% year-over-year to $221 million. Bernstein analysts noted that the revenue weakness due to decreased crypto trading activity was "expected" and stated that "there is no need to turn bearish when the stock price is approaching a cyclical low." Despite the "crypto market tension," several business metrics for the company remained "robust" in the fourth quarter. Additionally, Robinhood Banking, launched at the end of 2025, has attracted over 25,000 funded customers, with total account balances exceeding $400 million.Analysts pointed out that Robinhood's prediction market set a new record, accounting for about 14% of trading revenue and 8% of total revenue. The platform traded 8.5 billion contracts in the fourth quarter, far exceeding previous expectations. The report indicated that trading volume at the beginning of 2026 reached $4 billion, while the previously forecasted trading volume for 2026 was $27 billion.

According to The Block, Bernstein's analysts stated that the current decline of Bitcoin reflects a crisis of confidence rather than structural damage, calling it the "weakest bear market" in Bitcoin's history. Additionally, the analysts reiterated their target price of $150,000 for Bitcoin by 2026, citing increased acceptance by institutional investors, improved ETF infrastructure, and better liquidity conditions.

According to The Block, research firm Bernstein analyzed that the stock price of IREN, a Bitcoin mining company transitioning to AI computing services, fell sharply after releasing its financial report. The main reason was market disappointment over the lack of new large AI partnership announcements, rather than a deterioration in fundamentals.The company's stock price dropped about 18% after the earnings report, to approximately $39.79. Bernstein analysts believe that the volatility of Bitcoin-related earnings is no longer the core investment logic for IREN, and investors are more focused on its progress in transitioning to AI cloud infrastructure. Although IREN's Bitcoin mining revenue decreased quarter-over-quarter this quarter, its AI cloud revenue more than doubled compared to the previous quarter. The company has secured approximately $2.3 billion in annual recurring revenue contracts for AI cloud services and expects this to grow to $3.4 billion by the fourth quarter of 2026, equivalent to deploying about 140,000 GPUs.Bernstein maintains an "outperform" rating on IREN with a target price of $125, viewing this decline as a reset of expectations rather than a signal of deteriorating execution capability.

According to TheBlock, Bernstein's analyst team stated in a report to clients that Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD) stock price has fallen over 20% year-to-date, down about 40% from its peak of $89.91. This decline is partly attributed to the overall slump in the cryptocurrency market, which currently accounts for about 21% of the company's total revenue.The analysts outlined three bearish scenarios:Assuming Bitcoin price drops to around $60,000 and remains sluggish for the next couple of years, the expected earnings per share in 2027 would be about $3.10, with a potential stock price range of $46 to $61.Assuming Bitcoin price drops to $60,000 but rebounds in the second half of 2026. The expected earnings per share in 2027 would be about $3.50, with a potential stock price range of $70 to $88.In the most pessimistic scenario, trading volumes for cryptocurrencies and stock options would decline by 50% within two years, with the expected earnings per share for the company in 2027 being $2.40, and a potential stock price range of $24 to $36.However, the analysts noted that currently, Robinhood's non-trading revenue accounts for about 43% of total revenue, with a compound annual growth rate of about 29% over the past two years, and its broader business portfolio helps offset the weakness in cryptocurrency trading activity.

According to The Block, investment research firm Bernstein pointed out in its latest report that the crypto market may still be in a short-term bear cycle, but this trend is expected to reverse within 2026. Bitcoin prices may bottom out around the previous cycle's peak (approximately in the $60,000 range) before establishing a higher price base.The institutional cycle has made this round of market structure different from the previous retail-driven boom and bust. The report noted that U.S. policy dynamics could serve as a catalyst, such as the government using seized Bitcoin to establish strategic reserves and changes in Federal Reserve leadership. Additionally, institutional participation remains resilient, with ETF outflows being relatively limited, and there have been no large-scale leveraged liquidations of miners like in previous cycles.Corporate holders (such as Strategy) continue to accumulate during the downturn, and miners are also diversifying their income sources into AI-related data center businesses. Bernstein concluded that the current weakness may be a late-stage correction rather than the beginning of a prolonged winter, and the market reversal in 2026 could open up a "most impactful cycle" for Bitcoin.

Piper Sandler has lowered the target price for Coinbase from $350 to $270, maintaining a "Neutral" rating. Previously, Bernstein also reduced the target price for Coinbase from $510 to $440.Meanwhile, Bank of America Securities has upgraded Coinbase's investment rating from "Neutral" to "Buy," keeping the target price unchanged at $340. The firm noted that although its stock price has fallen about 40% from last July's high, the pace of product development has accelerated beneath the surface of last year's fourth-quarter cryptocurrency adjustments, and the total addressable market has also expanded. They are optimistic about Coinbase's ambition to develop into a "full-service exchange" and its goal of cross-selling more products to existing users.U.S. stock market data shows that Coinbase's stock price is currently around $240, with a total market capitalization of approximately $64.5 billion.

Bernstein, a Wall Street firm, pointed out in its latest analysis report: "Given the recent market adjustments, we believe the Bitcoin cycle has broken the four-year pattern (i.e., peaks occurring every four years) and is currently entering an extended bull market cycle, with more resilient institutional buying funds offsetting any retail panic selling. Although Bitcoin has retraced about 30%, we have observed that the outflow of funds through ETFs is less than 5%.Accordingly, we have adjusted our Bitcoin target price for the end of 2026 to $150,000, and we expect this cycle's peak to potentially reach $200,000 in 2027. Our long-term (up to 2033) target price expectation for Bitcoin remains at approximately $1,000,000."

According to The Block, analysts from research brokerage Bernstein pointed out that the industry "is still waiting for a clear signal that Bitcoin has bottomed," but emphasized that this round of decline is fundamentally different from previous corrections—core crypto operating companies are actively transitioning to new revenue models, and the business fundamentals are "performing strongly."In a report to clients on Monday, analyst Gautam Chhugani's team acknowledged that the weak sentiment has affected crypto-related stocks: Coinbase is down 21% over the past 30 days, Circle is down 37%, and Robinhood is down 12%. However, they noted that most speculative bubbles only exist in the tail-end projects of trend-following strategies and reiterated that "no realistic scenario threatens the long-term viability of the strategy."Bernstein emphasized that the operational performance of the industry stands in stark contrast to market prices, with innovations in business models and favorable regulations reflecting deep resilience. Analysts believe the industry is entering a new phase, with companies beginning to implement strategies previously constrained by regulatory uncertainty, expanding into areas beyond cyclical trading revenue.

According to The Block, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen about 25% since reaching an all-time high of approximately $126,000. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani stated in a report to clients on Monday that this decline reflects investors' anxiety over the historical four-year cycle pattern—this pattern has seen peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021—many investors sold early during the market weakness, believing that 2025 would repeat, thus creating a self-fulfilling prophecy to some extent.However, they believe that the current fundamentals are stronger, with data suggesting that this is more likely a "relatively shallow correction," forming a new local bottom rather than the 60% to 70% declines seen in historical cycles—thanks to the significant absorption of supply by long-term holders. Analysis indicates that over the past six months, investors holding Bitcoin for at least a year have sold about 340,000 BTC (approximately $38 billion), while around $34 billion in funds has flowed into spot ETFs and corporate treasuries, largely absorbing these sell-offs.Looking ahead, analysts believe that the market "does not seem to be at a cyclical peak," but rather is part of a multi-year trend defined by institutional participation and moderate cyclical corrections. They are focused on whether Bitcoin can establish a bottom around $80,000—this level emerged after last year's U.S. presidential election—and believe that the current correction may provide an attractive entry opportunity for digital assets and related stocks.

According to a recent report by Wall Street broker Bernstein, as the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory framework gradually takes shape, the country is entering a critical phase in becoming a global crypto capital center.The report points out that the enactment of the GENIUS Act has driven the expansion of the stablecoin market, pushing the total supply of U.S. dollar stablecoins to over $260 billion. The CLARITY Act, expected to be launched by the end of 2025, will clarify the market structure for digital assets in the U.S., delineating the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, thus ending years of regulatory uncertainty.The Bernstein analyst team states that the "Project Crypto," led by SEC Chair Atkins, is at the core of this transformation, aiming to deeply integrate the securities market with blockchain infrastructure and exclude most crypto assets from securities laws, thereby allowing tokenized stocks and bonds to circulate under a unified regulatory framework.The report also notes that U.S. crypto ETF assets have reached $160 billion, with institutional investors accounting for about a quarter; since the beginning of 2024, the total financing from crypto company IPOs has exceeded $4 billion, and the total market capitalization of listed crypto companies has increased from $80 billion to $380 billion, with Coinbase and Robinhood being included in the S&P 500 index.Bernstein believes that a clear regulatory path, the return of institutional capital, and the maturity of on-chain financial infrastructure are driving the formation of a more sustainable new crypto cycle.

ChainCatcher news, Wall Street broker Bernstein stated that if U.S. interest rates decline significantly, Circle (CRCL) may see its revenue impacted, but strong demand for stablecoins and operational leverage could help mitigate the blow. The current rating for Circle stock is outperform, with a target price of $230. The stock fell 2.3% in early trading, dropping to around $134.4.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, IREN has recently performed strongly, with its stock price rising over 500% in the past six months, surpassing MARA to become the largest publicly traded Bitcoin miner.However, this did not stop analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein from raising their price target more than three times on Wednesday, setting a new target of $75 per share, while maintaining an "outperform" rating—based on the expectation that its AI cloud business will achieve "exponential" growth.

ChainCatcher news, Bernstein analysts indicate that Tether will face significant challenges in launching its new stablecoin USAT in the U.S. market. Although the product is designed to meet U.S. compliance requirements, including reserve proof and bankruptcy protection, compliance alone is not enough to ensure success. Circle has already established a leading position in the U.S. market, with its stablecoin USDC deeply integrated into institutions such as Coinbase, Bullish, and Anchorage Digital, and widely circulated on chains like Ethereum, Solana, and Hyperliquid.Analysis points out that liquidity is the most difficult barrier for Tether to overcome in the U.S. Compared to Circle, Tether needs to build a liquidity network for USAT from scratch and persuade partners to accept an issuer that primarily operates offshore. Furthermore, if USAT lacks cross-chain interoperability on mainstream public chains, its adoption rate will be limited. Currently, USDC has issued over $9 billion in a single month on Ethereum, increasing its share of the DeFi stablecoin market to 58%. Meanwhile, Hyperliquid's native stablecoin USDH and payment giant Stripe are also positioning themselves for new competition. Analysts believe that as the U.S. "Genius Act" establishes a regulatory framework for stablecoins, stablecoins will continue to be one of the most promising growth areas in the crypto market.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, Bernstein analysts' latest report indicates that despite a recent cooling in prices, the current cryptocurrency bull market may continue until 2027, driven by U.S. policy support and increasing institutional adoption. Analysts expect Bitcoin to rise to $150,000 to $200,000 within the next year, while also raising the target prices for Coinbase, Robinhood, and Circle.Additionally, the company anticipates that the crypto asset cycle will surpass Bitcoin, with Ethereum, Solana, and DeFi tokens driving the next wave of increases.

ChainCatcher news, led by Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani, indicates that despite investors' concerns about competitor Tether potentially entering the U.S. market, as well as new stablecoin competition and interest rate pressures, more liquid and strictly regulated stablecoins will dominate the stablecoin network, with Circle's USDC ultimately prevailing. Therefore, the target price for the company's stock is reiterated at $230, representing a 40% increase from current levels.

ChainCatcher news, led by Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani, indicates that as ETH reaches its highest point in years and the altcoin rebound begins, Coinbase will benefit the most. They believe that the long-tail effect of tokens supported by Coinbase, a large amount of staked assets, and revenue from the Base chain can drive a surge in trading volume. Additionally, Coinbase holds a reserve of 136,782 ETH, valued at $570 million.In a memo to clients on Monday, analysts noted that since the sensational IPO of stablecoin issuer Circle on June 5, ETH has risen by 80%. As investors realize that most stablecoins are issued on the Ethereum network, interest in the Ethereum ecosystem has grown, and Coinbase will be the biggest beneficiary, as it has listed over 250 tokens and integrated long-tail tokens on the Base chain within the Coinbase App.