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BTC $70,740.69 -2.62%
ETH $2,076.78 -2.43%
BNB $645.12 -1.41%
XRP $1.42 -4.56%
SOL $81.67 -4.53%
TRX $0.2795 -0.47%
DOGE $0.0974 -3.83%
ADA $0.2735 -4.22%
BCH $457.98 -0.19%
LINK $8.64 -2.97%
HYPE $28.98 -1.81%
AAVE $122.61 -3.42%
SUI $0.9138 -6.63%
XLM $0.1605 -4.62%
ZEC $260.31 -8.86%

coup

Analysis: The recent decline of Bitcoin shows signs of "decoupling" from the US stock market

According to Bloomberg, Bitcoin is heading towards its fourth annual decline in history, and this is the first time this downturn has occurred without being accompanied by a major scandal or a systemic collapse in the industry. This decline comes as institutional participation expands, the regulatory environment matures, and the crypto industry receives public support from U.S. President Trump, which has surprised the market.Since hitting an all-time high above $126,000 in early October, Bitcoin has quickly retraced, with current trading volumes low and investors continuously withdrawing from related products. Data shows that since October 10, there has been a net outflow of over $5.2 billion from Bitcoin spot ETFs listed in the U.S., the market depth has decreased by about 30% from this year's peak, and there is a noticeable lack of willingness in the derivatives market to bet on a rebound.Unlike previous bear markets, this round of decline was not triggered by exchange collapses, regulatory crackdowns, or systemic risk events. The previous three annual declines occurred during the Mt. Gox collapse (2014), the ICO bubble burst (2018), and the industry crisis triggered by the FTX incident (2022). Analysts point out that Bitcoin has shown signs of "decoupling" from the U.S. stock market during this decline. This year, the S&P 500 index has repeatedly hit new highs, with an increase of about 16% year-to-date, and tech stocks have performed particularly well, while Bitcoin continues to face pressure.Apollo Crypto stated that despite numerous positive factors, the price lacks sustained follow-through, reflecting a clear weakening of market sentiment. Overall, this round of Bitcoin adjustment appears more like a reallocation of funds and a decline in risk appetite against a high backdrop, rather than a panic sell-off triggered by a single event.

JPMorgan: The decline in Bitcoin prices, coupled with high electricity costs, has led to selling pressure in the market from high-cost miners

JPMorgan analysts believe that for the recent price trends of Bitcoin, the resilience of Strategy (stock code MSTR) is more important than miner activity. Although the world's largest Bitcoin holder has not yet begun to sell, Bitcoin miners seem to be facing increasing selling pressure.JPMorgan Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and his team noted in a report on Wednesday that the recent pressure on Bitcoin prices is mainly due to two factors: first, the recent decline in Bitcoin network hash rate and mining difficulty; second, the latest developments surrounding Strategy. Analysts stated that the decline in hash rate and mining difficulty reflects the influence of two forces: China's reaffirmation of its ban on Bitcoin mining following a surge in private mining activities, and the low Bitcoin prices combined with high energy costs squeezing profits, leading to the exit of high-cost miners outside of China.Analysts pointed out that while a decline in hash rate typically increases miner revenue, "Bitcoin prices are currently still hovering below their production costs," which brings selling pressure to the Bitcoin market. JPMorgan analysts have currently revised their estimate of Bitcoin's production cost down to $90,000, from $94,000 last month. According to analysts, this update is based on an electricity price assumption of $0.05 per kilowatt-hour, and for high-cost producers, every increase of $0.01 per kilowatt-hour will raise their production costs by $18,000.JPMorgan's report stated: "Against the backdrop of high electricity prices and low Bitcoin prices squeezing profits, some high-cost miners have been forced to sell Bitcoin in recent weeks."

Binance released an announcement on "The Handling of the USDE, BNSOL, and WBETH Decoupling Events and Optimization of Risk Control."

ChainCatcher news, Binance has released an announcement regarding the handling of the decoupling events of USDE, BNSOL, and WBETH, as well as risk control optimizations.The announcement states that Binance has completed a comprehensive review of this incident and will compensate all affected contract, leverage, and borrowing users within 72 hours. The compensation will be automatically credited to the relevant user accounts.Specific compensation plan:All affected contract, leverage, and borrowing users who held USDE, BNSOL, and WBETH as collateral and were impacted by the decoupling between 05:36 and 06:16 (UTC+8) on October 11, 2025, will receive a differential compensation. The specific amount will be calculated based on the difference between the market price at 08:00 (UTC+8) on October 11, 2025, and the liquidation price.If a user's situation does not fall within the above scope, they can directly contact Binance customer service for manual assistance, obtain the form link to submit an application, and we will handle it on a case-by-case basis.In addition, to prevent similar situations from occurring again, Binance will further strengthen risk control and adjust relevant parameters, specifically as follows:Add the redemption price to the price index weights of BNSOL, WBETH, and USDE;Introduce a minimum price limit for the USDE index to enhance price stability;Increase the frequency of risk control parameter reviews to ensure dynamic adjustments based on market conditions.
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