cpi

According to Jinshi reports, after the release of significantly better-than-expected non-farm payroll data on Friday, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes this year surged, causing spot gold to plummet sharply, nearly erasing all gains for the year, marking a fourth consecutive week of declines. Silver's overall trend mirrored that of gold but with slightly stronger volatility, closing down 9.85% for the week. The U.S. dollar index, buoyed by the unexpected non-farm data, rose significantly to just above the 100 mark. Following the non-farm data on Friday, U.S. tech stocks suffered heavy losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1.35%, the S&P 500 index fell 2.65%, marking the largest single-day drop since October 2025; the Nasdaq dropped 4.18%, the largest single-day decline since April 2025.Goldman Sachs believes that the current market sentiment is clearly more greedy than fearful. Deutsche Bank pointed out that the market is highly sensitive to any negative news involving Iran. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times are in Beijing time):Monday 23:00, U.S. May New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations;Tuesday 14:00, Germany April seasonally adjusted industrial production month-on-month, April seasonally adjusted trade balance;Tuesday 18:00, U.S. May NFIB Small Business Confidence Index;Tuesday 20:15, U.S. ADP employment change for the week ending May 23;Wednesday 20:30, U.S. May unadjusted CPI, May seasonally adjusted CPI/core CPI month-on-month;Wednesday 21:45, Bank of Canada announces interest rate decision;Thursday 20:15, European Central Bank announces interest rate decision;Thursday 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 6, May PPI year-on-year/month-on-month;Friday 14:00, Germany May CPI month-on-month final value;Friday 14:45, France May CPI month-on-month final value;Friday 22:00, U.S. June 1-year inflation expectations preliminary value, June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index preliminary value.In the coming week, the market will face a series of important events, but the most anticipated remains the potential initial public offering (IPO) of SpaceX. According to current plans, this transaction may launch on Friday, and if it proceeds, it is expected to have a significant impact on overall market sentiment, although the specific direction is still difficult to determine.In addition to SpaceX, the Apple Worldwide Developers Conference, earnings reports, and TSMC's May sales data may also become important factors influencing market volatility. Next week, U.S. stocks will enter a relatively calm phase of earnings season; although the overall number of reports is not large, heavyweight tech companies Oracle and Adobe will take the stage one after another, becoming the focus of market attention.

According to Jinshi reports, institutional analyst Anstey stated when evaluating the U.S. non-farm data that considering the Federal Reserve's mission to maintain price stability and achieve full employment, the current job market does not seem to need assistance. At the same time, the inflation rate is far above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. It is expected that next week's CPI data will show the core inflation rate rising to 2.9%, with overall inflation soaring 4.2% year-on-year. It would be surprising if Federal Reserve policymakers do not further hint at a possible interest rate hike in 2026.

According to QCP Capital analysis, BTC is currently consolidating around $82,000, close to the 200-day moving average, with $80,000 support holding steady, but the $84,000 resistance above has not yet been broken. The core CPI for April year-on-year is 2.8%, slightly above expectations, mainly driven by housing costs (owner's equivalent rent), while core goods inflation remains sluggish, and the transmission of tariffs has not yet fully spread.Core services (excluding housing) inflation has accelerated for three consecutive months, combined with China's PPI turning positive for the first time in 41 months, the global commodity deflation dividend may be fading, and the threshold for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has been raised further. The market is currently focused on three major catalysts: the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing (involving trade, rare earths, and Middle East issues), the release of PPI data, and the Senate Banking Committee's review process of the CLARITY cryptocurrency regulatory bill. Before these catalysts materialize, spot prices may continue to fluctuate within a range, with volatility remaining low.

In April, the CPI in the United States increased by 3.8% year-on-year, reaching a new high since May 2023, exceeding the market expectation of 3.7%. Previously, on May 8, Bank of America economists stated in a report to clients that due to inflationary pressures remaining above expectations and robust job growth, they have abandoned their earlier predictions of rate cuts in September and October this year, postponing the first rate cut to the second half of 2027.The previous view was based on the expectation that Trump would nominate Kevin Warsh to replace Powell as the chairman of the Federal Reserve, leading to a more accommodative policy. However, with changes in the economic situation, this view has shifted. The report mentioned, "We no longer expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year." They also pointed out that multiple shock factors affecting the economy, including the war in Iran, tariffs, and the rise of artificial intelligence, have made predicting interest rate changes more difficult.

According to Gate market data, at the opening of the US stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.03%, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.32%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 0.71%. Star tech stocks generally declined, with Intel (INTC.O) down more than 4%, Qualcomm (QCOM.O) down nearly 4%, and ASML (ASML.O) and Micron Technology (MU.O) both down by 2.5%.

According to Jinshi, the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States for April was 0.6%, in line with market expectations, and the previous value was 0.9%.

According to Jinshi reports, the seasonally adjusted core CPI for the U.S. in April was 0.4%, higher than the market expectation of 0.3%, and the previous value was 0.2%.

According to Jinshi, the seasonally adjusted core CPI year-on-year rate in the U.S. for April was 2.8%, higher than the market expectation of 2.7% and the previous value of 2.6%.

According to Jinshi reports, the U.S. April seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year recorded 3.8%, the highest since May 2023, exceeding market expectations of 3.7%.

According to CoinDesk, the cryptocurrency market has temporarily stalled before the release of the U.S. April CPI data. Bitcoin has recently been oscillating in the range of $80,000 to $82,000, failing to effectively break through since last Wednesday.The market believes that although capital flows still indicate a potential for a subsequent breakthrough, inflation and macro risks are suppressing risk appetite. The U.S. will release the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 PM Beijing time tonight. FactSet data shows that the market expects the April CPI to rise year-on-year to 3.7%, up from 3.3% in March. If the forecast is realized, it will mark the largest increase since January 2024 and is significantly higher than the average of 2.7% over the past 12 months. The core CPI is expected to rise year-on-year to 2.7%, up from the previous value of 2.6%.Analysts are concerned that if the inflation data exceeds expectations against the backdrop of high oil prices and Trump's statement that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is "extremely fragile," it may further trigger market risk aversion, dragging down the performance of risk assets.Lukman Otunuga, head of market research at FXTM, stated that the current market is entering a sensitive phase where geopolitical issues, inflation risks, and central bank expectations are intertwined. High oil prices, uncertainty regarding the situation in Iran, and key U.S. economic data may lead to increased volatility in commodities, exchange rates, and global stock markets.In addition to macro factors, XRP and SOL are also approaching key supply zones again. XRP tested $1.50 today but has failed to break through this level multiple times since February of this year; SOL is once again nearing the resistance level around $97.Meanwhile, institutional interest in related assets is heating up. The U.S. spot XRP ETF recorded a net inflow of $25.8 million on Monday, reaching a new high since January 5; Bitcoin and Solana ETFs also maintained net inflows, while the Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of $16.9 million.

According to Jinshi reports, Danske Bank analyst August Hyldgaard stated in a report that Tuesday's U.S. consumer inflation data may reinforce the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance. "If the data exceeds expectations on the upside, along with strong labor market data, it will keep the Federal Reserve in its current wait-and-see mode."

According to Jinshi News, Matt Hornbach, the global macro strategy chief at Morgan Stanley, stated that the U.S. inflation data for April is expected to be quite "hot," which will be the first in a series of data this week and will ultimately constitute the core PCE price index that the Federal Reserve is most concerned about.Hornbach pointed out that companies may not necessarily pass on inflationary pressures to consumers, and currently, companies are facing pressures such as rising energy costs and the costs of building AI infrastructure. Therefore, the bank still predicts that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged this year.

According to Jinshi reports, the year-on-year increase of the U.S. April CPI is expected to be 3.7%, the largest increase since September 2023, compared to a year-on-year increase of 3.3% in March. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, is expected to rise by 0.3%, which may be rounded to 0.4%. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to make a one-time adjustment to rents. Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP, stated that this will lead to a significant catch-up effect, with the core CPI increase expected to rise by about 0.1 percentage points.

According to Jinshi, the U.S. April CPI report will be released tonight at 8:30. Influenced by soaring gasoline prices and housing inflation, the overall CPI year-on-year growth rate may reach a three-year high. The market is focused on the policy direction of the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, as well as potential fluctuations in the gold and silver exchange markets.

According to market news, market analysis indicates that as the U.S. CPI data is about to be released, Bitcoin may face greater downside pressure.The latest forecast from the Cleveland Fed shows that the overall U.S. CPI year-on-year may rise to 3.56%, up from 3.3% in March, which could further strengthen market expectations that the Federal Reserve will find it difficult to cut interest rates in the short term, thereby putting pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. Although Bitcoin has remained strong after several previous inflation data releases that exceeded expectations, the current market support has weakened compared to before, and the market's sensitivity to the CPI data may rise again. Currently, Bitcoin's daily chart is forming a classic "rising wedge" pattern; if the price breaks below the key support level of around $84,000, it may further test the $70,000 area; if it successfully breaks through the 200-day moving average resistance, it is expected to open up upward space to $90,000 to $95,000.

According to Jinshi reports, this week, significant signs of peace have emerged in the US-Iran conflict and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, greatly easing geopolitical risks. Next week, it is worth paying close attention to whether these two geopolitical conflicts can further cool down. In addition, next week's macro events will focus on the US April CPI data, as detailed below:Tuesday 15:15, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will participate in a panel discussion on monetary policy;Tuesday 20:15, US ADP employment change for the week ending April 25;Tuesday 20:30, US April CPI data;Wednesday 04:30, US API crude oil inventories for the week ending May 8;Wednesday 20:30, US April PPI year-on-year and month-on-month;Friday 05:30, Fed Governor Barr will deliver a speech;Friday 21:15, US April industrial production month-on-month.Finally, next week the Federal Reserve will undergo significant personnel changes. Nominee Chairman Kevin Warsh is expected to be confirmed by the Senate on Monday and will officially take over from Powell on May 15.In terms of US stocks, as of this Friday, a new round of surges has pushed the S&P 500 index up 8% cumulatively in 2026, continuing to rise on the basis of achieving double-digit returns for three consecutive years. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index has risen nearly 13% year-to-date, with both major indices reaching all-time highs. Although the first quarter earnings season is nearing its end, corporate reports will still be a key driver of stock prices in the coming days.AI