crash

Binance founder Zhao Changpeng (CZ) detailed the Terra/UST/LUNA collapse in his new book "Binance Life." In 2018, Binance's venture capital department invested $3 million in Terra in exchange for LUNA tokens. Starting on May 7, 2022, UST began to de-peg and rapidly collapsed, with approximately $60 billion in value evaporating.At the same time, the team informed that the early investment in LUNA was worth $1.6 billion, and CZ decided not to sell to cash out, reasoning that he did not want to trigger market panic, harm the project, or be seen as running ahead of retail investors. Nevertheless, the LUNA he held plummeted from a market value of $1.6 billion to a few thousand dollars within days, resulting in significant losses for Binance.CZ pointed out in the book that Terra claimed to have billions of dollars in reserves but did not use them to stabilize UST, and founder Do Kwon lacked transparent responses. The design of UST relied on LUNA as a reserve, and after the de-pegging, the system crazily minted LUNA, increasing the total supply by 1,000 times, accelerating the collapse. Terra ultimately used $3 billion in Bitcoin reserves to try to save the situation, but it was too late, and he expressed shock that Do Kwon might have privately kept $200 million for legal fees.

According to Cointelegraph, Ark Invest founder Cathie Wood stated in a recent interview that Bitcoin has entered a mature stage, and the historically common 85%-95% deep crashes may be a thing of the past.She pointed out that even if future pullbacks reach 50%, it will be seen as a "significant progress" within the Bitcoin community. She believes that Bitcoin has grown from an emerging technology into a "mature monetary system and asset class."In the previous cycle, Bitcoin fell nearly 80% from its high of about $69,000 in 2021, reaching a low of $15,600. According to on-chain data platform Glassnode, the maximum drawdown in this bear market is about 52% (based on the October 2025 high of $126,200), which has not yet reached the historical average level.

According to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart's post on platform X, data shows that Bitcoin ETFs recorded a large outflow of approximately $9 billion, but have currently recovered about $3 billion of the outflow.Although the overall net outflow still exceeds $6 billion, looking at the performance this year, the inflows and outflows of Bitcoin ETFs have nearly balanced out, indicating a certain recovery in market sentiment.

According to market news, the smart money that shorted BTC and made a profit of 5.16 million dollars during the LUNA/UST collapse has today liquidated XAUT, with an entry point of 4150.89 dollars and a liquidation point of 5131 dollars, making a profit of 4.845 million dollars. The current price of XAUT is 4547.55 dollars, which has dropped 11.4% from its liquidation point. This address previously also made a profit of 13.293 million dollars by bottom-fishing with BTC and ETH.

According to QCP Capital's latest market commentary, despite the escalation of tensions in Iran over the weekend pushing oil prices above $115 and global stock markets turning defensive, Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience.Options flow also indicates that market concerns about further declines have eased, with put skew moderating compared to the spike earlier last week. The report notes that U.S. Treasuries and gold have failed to provide their usual safe-haven function, as soaring oil prices exacerbate inflation concerns and push yields higher, with the dollar becoming the preferred safe-haven asset. Downside protection for Bitcoin still exists, but options flow reflects more nuanced expectations, such as the purchase of straddles expiring in April, indicating that the market anticipates continued volatility rather than a one-sided decline.The highest open interest for March is concentrated in $75,000 and $125,000 call options, showing that despite ongoing macro uncertainty, optimism towards Bitcoin is returning. This week's focus includes Wednesday's CPI, Thursday's jobless claims, and Friday's core PCE and JOLTS job openings data.

According to Jinshi News, Wall Street veteran strategist Ed Yardeni stated that as the war in Iran escalates and impacts global markets, the risk of a significant sell-off in the U.S. stock market is increasing. He has raised the probability of a market crash from 20% to 35%, while significantly lowering the likelihood of a market rally from 20% to just 5%.Yardeni pointed out that the U.S. economy and stock market are caught in the quagmire of Iran, and if the oil shock continues, the Federal Reserve will face the dual risks of rising inflation and unemployment.

According to the WSJ, on February 24, the court-appointed bankruptcy administrator of Terraform Labs has sued Jane Street in the federal court in New York, accusing it of engaging in front-running trades and profiting from non-public insider information provided by Terra insiders during the Terra collapse. The lawsuit reveals that Jane Street established a secret communication channel with Terraform Labs employees through former intern Bryce Pratt to obtain non-public confidential information. On May 7, 2022, Terraform Labs withdrew 150 million TerraUSD (UST) from the Curve liquidity pool without prior announcement, and Jane Street followed suit by withdrawing approximately 85 million UST through affiliated wallets in less than 10 minutes, completing the "front-running" trade before a massive market panic and the complete de-pegging of UST, which not only resulted in illegal profits but also accelerated the collapse of Terraform Labs and the Terra ecosystem.A spokesperson for Jane Street responded to the accusations from the Terraform Labs bankruptcy administrator, stating that the lawsuit is an attempt to extract money from Jane Street, and that Jane Street will vigorously defend its rights against "baseless and opportunistic allegations." In addition to the Terraform lawsuit, Jane Street was accused of market manipulation in India last year, resulting in the freezing of assets worth approximately 4.843 billion rupees (about 565 million dollars) and a ban on trading in the Indian securities market. There are also rumors that Chinese regulators are reviewing Jane Street's trading patterns in the Chinese ETF market.The crypto community has noted that since Jane Street was sued, the daily "10 AM crash" of Bitcoin (Eastern Time) has suddenly disappeared, with Bitcoin rising by 10% and its market capitalization increasing by approximately 120 billion dollars, marking the first green weekly candle for BTC after five consecutive red ones. During the same period, the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market also increased by nearly 200 billion dollars. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated, "This 'threat' has disappeared, which is the atmosphere felt today in CT and price movements. I also understand that the previous significant intraday drops nearly destroyed every rebound and undermined everyone's confidence. But is simply eliminating it enough to support a sustained rebound? We shall see."Speculation surrounding Jane Street has reignited discussions about the trading mechanism of Bitcoin spot ETFs. Analysts point out that the share creation and redemption of spot ETFs can be completed by authorized participants (APs) under a regulatory exemption framework, and does not necessarily require immediate buying and selling of Bitcoin in the public market; in cases of futures contango, APs may also hedge and protect through derivatives such as futures, leading to a time lag between ETF fund inflows and spot buying and short-term price performance.As a leading global quantitative trading giant, Jane Street has a broad presence in the cryptocurrency sector, primarily focused on infrastructure, DeFi, and crypto mining. Public information shows that Jane Street has invested in several crypto-native projects, including: ZetaChain, Arbitrum, 1inch, Euler Finance, Membrane Labs, Kaito, Vest Exchange, and others.In terms of equity, Jane Street significantly increased its holdings in several crypto mining companies through the secondary market between 2024 and 2026, including: approximately 5.4% of Bitfarms (BITF); approximately 5% of Cipher Mining (CIFR); and approximately 5% of Hut 8 (HUT). Additionally, Jane Street participated in multiple rounds of Kraken financing last year. Jane Street is also one of the main liquidity providers and stockholders of Coinbase.

The author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," Robert Kiyosaki, stated in a social media post that he warned in his 2013 book "Rich Dad's Prophecy" about the impending arrival of the largest stock market crash in history, which is now imminent.Kiyosaki indicated that for those who are prepared, the upcoming crash will present significant wealth opportunities, while for those who are unprepared, it will be a nightmare. He emphasized that he holds physical gold, silver, Ethereum, and Bitcoin, and plans to continue increasing his holdings as Bitcoin prices decline. Kiyosaki specifically mentioned that the total supply of Bitcoin will always be limited to 21 million coins, and that nearly 21 million are already in circulation. He believes that a market crash is the best time to buy quality assets at a discount.

Bubblemaps disclosed on platform X that Trove Markets has quietly refunded the KOLs who participated in the presale, while other presale participants suffered heavy losses. By monitoring wallets associated with the TROVE token deployer, it was discovered that one day after the token crash, $100,000 worth of USDC and $350,000 worth of USDT were transferred to a newly funded wallet. On-chain evidence and leaked chat records have now been obtained, proving that the project team has engaged in improper behavior by treating investors differently.After raising $11.5 million through an ICO in January, Trove stated that it would retain $9,397,403 to continue building PerpDEX on Solana. This move sparked strong dissatisfaction within the community, with the token price dropping over 95%, resulting in severe losses for ICO participants, who accused the team of a rug pull. According to community feedback, the project has issues such as "paying KOLs for promotion, with funds flowing to entertainment platform deposit addresses."

Binance Co-CEO Richard Teng stated at the Consensus HK conference that the "1011 crash" event was not triggered by Binance, but rather that all exchanges globally experienced large-scale liquidations. Approximately 75% of the liquidations occurred around 21:00 Eastern Time, accompanied by isolated issues such as stablecoin de-pegging and delays in asset transfers.Teng pointed out that on that day, the U.S. stock market's market capitalization fell by about $1.5 trillion, with stock market liquidations amounting to approximately $150 billion, while the total liquidations in the crypto market were about $19 billion, affecting all exchanges. Binance provided support to affected users, while other exchanges did not take similar measures. Last year, Binance's trading volume reached $34 trillion, with 300 million users, and data did not show any large-scale withdrawals from the platform.He added that the market is temporarily affected by geopolitical and interest rate uncertainties, but institutions are still continuously entering the crypto market, indicating that "smart money" is still positioning itself. Teng emphasized that long-term participants should focus on the fundamental development of the crypto industry; although retail demand is relatively subdued, institutional deployments and corporate participation remain strong.

The Financial Times stated that Bitcoin may have experienced dozens of significant crashes, hundreds of crypto companies may have gone bankrupt, and countless individuals may have lost their life savings, but every time Bitcoin drops, it always rebounds. Those who are capable can hold on, and the cognitive memories brought by each rebound make people firmly believe that the cryptocurrency they worship will exist forever. Since its inception, Bitcoin has been on a path destined to end in tragedy.This week, Bitcoin experienced its most severe crash since 2022, briefly falling to around $60,000, erasing all gains since Trump’s re-election in 2024, and dropping more than half from its historical high of over $127,000 last October. According to Coinglass data, approximately $1.25 billion in Bitcoin positions were forcibly liquidated within just 24 hours from Thursday to Friday.The U.S. indeed has a leader closest to being a "Bitcoin president," and his family has interests in crypto assets. However, even with the establishment of a "strategic Bitcoin reserve," the pardon of many convicted crypto criminals, the allowance for Americans to include crypto assets in 401(k) retirement accounts, and claims of ending former President Biden's "crypto war" within 200 days of taking office, Trump's presence in the White House still cannot stop the selling pressure.We may not have truly seen the final "death spiral" of Bitcoin yet; I cannot predict when it will come. Judging the end of a speculative frenzy solely based on faith is very difficult, and Bitcoin may still have a few rebounds (as of writing, it has rebounded to around $70,000). But confidence is starting to wane. People are beginning to realize that an asset sustained only by fantasy has no fundamental value. Ask yourself: will this thing still exist in 100 years? Remember, "what matters is not how you fall, but how you land."

Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley stated in an interview with CNBC, "Bitcoin has seen a double-digit drop in a single day and is currently in a bear market, down nearly 30% year-to-date. As for the reasons, I believe the current crypto market is being swept up by the overall macro environment, with investors selling off all liquid assets. Gold is down, the Nasdaq 100 is down, and Amazon is also being sold off. Over the past few months, there have indeed been some internal factors in the crypto space, such as operational disruptions at certain offshore trading platforms, but at this moment, crypto assets are trading more in sync with other highly liquid assets. I feel that long-term holders are experiencing uncertainty; meanwhile, newly entering institutional investors feel they are encountering a 'second chance,' seeing prices they once thought they had missed forever. I believe we are currently in a transitional phase. Ultimately, crypto assets remain a relatively small asset class, and most investors have not truly allocated to them yet. Therefore, the overall long-term outlook is very solid; it is just currently experiencing fluctuations and reversals during this transitional period."

According to Coinglass data, the Bitcoin Ahr999 indicator has dropped to 0.27, significantly below the "buying bottom line" (0.45). The last time this index fell to this level was on June 18, 2022, and again on November 22 of the same year, when the market experienced the "ETH crash liquidation" and "FTX explosion" events, respectively. Looking further back, it can be traced to March 16, 2020, the "316 crash" event.This indicator was created by ahr999 to assist Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging users in making investment decisions based on timing strategies. The indicator implies the short-term return rate of Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging and the deviation of Bitcoin's price from its expected valuation. Historically, the Ahr999 index has been below the buying bottom line (0.45) for 572 days.

According to Forbes, Bitcoin has recently experienced a significant pullback, raising concerns in the market about a new round of "deep declines" in crypto assets. Over the past week, the price of Bitcoin has dropped by about 10%, briefly falling below the $80,000 mark, with the latest low reaching $73,000, before slightly rebounding to above $75,000. Amid this sudden shift in market sentiment, CZ publicly stated that his confidence in the "super cycle" of Bitcoin in 2026 has significantly decreased.CZ mentioned that due to market panic (FUD), extreme liquidation events, and geopolitical uncertainties, the current environment will have "very high" volatility. The super cycle could still occur, but the probability has dropped to about 50%. Meanwhile, well-known investor and the inspiration for "The Big Short," Michael Burry, warned that Bitcoin's price could further dip to $50,000. He pointed out that if it falls to that level, Bitcoin mining companies may face severe financial pressure and even bankruptcy risks.Concerns about Bitcoin's weakness in the market have also intensified as funds accelerate their flow into traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver. LMAX Group CEO David Mercer stated that the current market is experiencing "collateral tightening," with the speed of risk spreading outpacing the support system, leading to significantly amplified volatility. Analysts believe that against the backdrop of rising gold prices and crypto assets being revalued as "high-risk assets," Bitcoin's short-term performance will remain highly dependent on changes in the macro environment and market sentiment.

According to CoinDesk, Michael Burry, the real-life inspiration for the protagonist in "The Big Short" (who successfully predicted the 2008 financial crisis), has warned that the recent decline in Bitcoin could trigger a chain reaction across the entire market, particularly in the gold and silver markets.The plunge in Bitcoin may force institutional investors and corporate finance executives to sell up to $1 billion in gold and silver to offset losses incurred from cryptocurrencies. Michael Burry believes that Bitcoin's drop below $73,000 exposes its fragile foundations, and if the price falls to $50,000, it could threaten companies holding large amounts of Bitcoin and may even lead to the bankruptcy of some mining companies.Michael Burry asserts that Bitcoin has failed as a digital safe-haven asset or a substitute for gold, and the recent surge driven by ETFs is merely speculative behavior rather than a reflection of its lasting application in the real world.

10x Research posted on platform X that in the past 72 hours, gold, silver, and BTC have experienced significant price declines due to insider-driven repricing, macro shocks, and forced liquidations.10x Research pointed out that BTC is nearing strong support. The market is currently in a phase of changing risk-reward ratios and volatility compression, and 10x Research has proposed tactical positioning strategies for a rebound.