cyclical

In the 13th anniversary open letter, Gate founder and CEO Dr. Han pointed out that the crypto industry is undergoing a structural reshaping driven by multiple variables. Technological evolution, improvements in regulatory systems, changes in the macro environment, and a broader user base are all working together to influence the industry's development path, continuously raising the overall threshold.Dr. Han stated that this change is reflected not only in compliance and technical requirements but also in the higher demands for platform system capabilities and long-term investment; as the threshold rises, resources and space are accelerating towards participants who possess long-term judgment and sustained investment capabilities, and long-termists will gain more certain growth opportunities in the new cycle.As a global leading crypto asset trading platform, Gate always regards security and transparency as the cornerstone of development, being the first to introduce a 100% reserve proof scheme and continuously expanding its global compliance footprint. Currently, multiple entities under Gate have obtained or completed relevant regulatory registrations, license applications, authorizations, or approvals in jurisdictions such as Malta, Cyprus, the Bahamas, Japan, Australia, and Dubai. At the same time, the platform deeply integrates AI innovative technology, building an ecosystem that covers multi-asset allocation and full-scenario services, driving the industry towards a smarter and more sustainable future.

Crypto analyst Ali published a lengthy analysis on the X platform, pointing out that rather than debating whether Bitcoin has bottomed out, it is better to focus on whether the current volatility constitutes a "generational entry opportunity." Based on indicators such as long-term trend lines, on-chain liquidity, and cost distribution, the core "value range" of this cycle is defined.In terms of support, the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows that there is a significant concentration of chips in the range of approximately $63,111 to $70,685, forming the current main support zone; if it falls below $63,111, the market may enter a liquidity vacuum. From a long-term trend perspective, Bitcoin is approaching the key upward trend line of the past decade (approximately $56,000 to $60,000), which historically has often corresponded to accumulation phases before major upward movements.

Market maker Wintermute's latest market weekly report indicates that the ratio of Bitcoin perpetual contract trading volume to spot trading volume has risen to 15 times, while the funding rate volatility has dropped to a low point in this cycle, showing that market leverage is high but there is insufficient directional consensus. The current structure is closer to "compression and accumulation," or brewing significant unilateral volatility.Wintermute believes that if geopolitical tensions ease and oil prices fall back to around $100, short positions will face the risk of being squeezed to between $70,000 and $74,000. If the situation continues to ease, the resistance level at $74,000 may be tested.Conversely, if the situation escalates further and oil prices rise to $120, oil prices could drop to just above $60, and if the cyclical trend is similar, it could fall to the mid-high $50,000 range. More macro-wise, the directionality here is not important; what matters is the market structure itself. The leverage on futures contracts is high, capital flows are fluctuating within the narrowest range ever recorded, and volatility is also narrowing.Regarding which direction the catalysts ultimately develop, the market structure indicates that the resulting volatility will far exceed the levels currently reflected in spot, futures, and options prices.

According to Jinshi Data, the People's Bank of China Monetary Policy Committee held its first quarter meeting of 2026 (the 112th meeting) on March 26. The meeting analyzed the domestic and international economic and financial situation, noting that the current changes in the external environment have deepened, the momentum of the world economy is weak, geopolitical conflicts and trade conflicts are frequent, the economic performance of major economies is diverging, and there is uncertainty in inflation trends and monetary policy adjustments.China's economic operation is generally stable, with progress in stability and new achievements in high-quality development, but it still faces issues and challenges such as strong supply and weak demand, and external shocks. It is necessary to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, increase counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, better leverage the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of both total volume and structure, and strengthen the coordination and cooperation between monetary and fiscal policies to promote stable economic growth and a reasonable rebound in prices.

On-chain analysis models show that the current selling pressure on the Bitcoin network has dropped to a cyclical low, indicating that the market is in a clear accumulation phase. The Sell-side Risk Ratio last triggered a "distribution signal" in December 2024, when the Bitcoin price was around $107,000, and this signal has not appeared since. Data shows that the current level of selling pressure has fallen to about one-sixth of the cyclical average, with related indicators even reflecting levels seen during the 2022-2023 bear market (when BTC prices were around $16,000 to $20,000).The model divides this cycle into two phases: the "strong distribution phase" from November to December 2024, with prices in the range of $64,000 to $107,000; and the current "accumulation phase" that has re-entered. The Sell-side Risk Ratio is used to measure the profit-taking activity of market participants relative to the overall network cost basis. When the indicator exceeds the adaptive upper threshold, it triggers a distribution signal, indicating that sellers dominate the market; when the indicator falls below the lower threshold, it triggers an accumulation signal, meaning selling pressure is extremely low. Data shows that the distribution signal in this cycle lasted a total of 37 days, covering the major range of BTC rising from $64,000 to $107,000.Since the signal closed on December 17, 2024, the market has not seen another distribution signal for about 449 consecutive days. Meanwhile, the 180-day rolling average of the Sell-side Risk Ratio has decreased from 3210 to 1913 over the past 60 days, a drop of 1297 points, and continues to decline at a rate of about 20 points per day. Historically, the range of 1500 to 2000 typically corresponds to selling pressure levels during 2019 (BTC around $3,000 to $6,000) and the mid-point of the 2022-2023 bear market (BTC around $16,000 to $20,000), but the current BTC price remains in the range of about $67,000 to $72,000, showing a clear structural divergence.Analysis indicates that this means early low-price holders have completed large-scale profit-taking in the $64,000 to $107,000 range, while those who did not sell in that range are currently choosing to hold. The model suggests that a new distribution signal may only be triggered when the Bitcoin price stabilizes above $100,000 to $110,000, accompanied by large-scale profit-taking. Overall, on-chain indicators show that the distribution phase of this cycle has ended, and the market has re-entered an accumulation state. The current overall judgment of the model on the market is "neutral to accumulation," but without new price catalysts, the market may face a prolonged period of consolidation.

According to Jinshi reports, Fed's Schmid said that we do not have cyclical issues in the labor market, and if there are, we would have a different view on monetary policy.

According to on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa, a trader has bought 61.93 WBTC (worth $4.092 million) on-chain through a looped long position in the past 17 hours, with an average cost of $66,082.5.Currently, they have collateralized 118.83 WBTC and borrowed 4.1 million USDT, with a health factor of 1.72.

According to CoinDesk, the supply of long-term Bitcoin holders fell to 14.33 million in November, the lowest level since March, coinciding with Bitcoin's pullback low of $80,000.Currently, the price of Bitcoin has rebounded to $90,000, up about 15% from the low. Data shows that after experiencing a 36% peak-to-trough pullback, most of the spot market-driven selling pressure has subsided.In previous cycles, the supply of long-term holders typically saw a sharp decline during the retail-driven frenzy phase accompanying cycle peaks, especially in 2017 and 2021. However, the long-term market behavior in this cycle shows a more cautious distribution rather than a dramatic crash, indicating changes in market structure and holder behavior, with on-chain behavior shifts breaking the traditional four-year cycle structure.

ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant analyst Shayan Markets stated that the market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) of Bitcoin is an indicator to measure whether the asset is overvalued. This indicator recently fell below its 365-day moving average, suggesting that the Bitcoin market may be forming a "cyclical bottom."The analyst mentioned in a report on Monday: "The MVRV ratio is currently close to 1.9, slightly below its 365-day moving average. Historically, every time this ratio falls below the 365-day simple moving average (SMA), it marks the arrival of a buying opportunity and a local bottom signal." The last occurrences of this were in mid-2021, June 2022, and early 2024, after which Bitcoin prices rose by 135%, 100%, and 196%, respectively.This ongoing pattern indicates that Bitcoin has once again "entered an undervalued phase, where long-term holders typically begin to accumulate." If history repeats itself, Bitcoin prices may initiate a long-term recovery. The analyst expects that if the final phase of the bull market begins, the short-term target price could be around $115,000, potentially even reaching $190,000.

ChainCatcher news, DeFiance Capital researcher Kyle posted on social media that, given the current market sentiment, the last time such a situation occurred was during the FTX or Celsius collapse. This drop can basically be considered a cycle-ending event, but this time BTC and ETH are surprisingly stable. The evolution of the crypto industry complex is indeed astonishing, but altcoins are clearly repeating the same tragedy—despite my repeated warnings over the past few months, I didn't expect it to be this severe.In summary, this is not the "best" time to buy the dip, but it is definitely the time when one "should" buy the dip. Extreme panic has been released, and the market is building a bottom, although there may still be room for further declines. Looking at the bigger picture, we are definitely closer to the bottom than to the top. The choice of assets at this moment is crucial, as many projects may never recover.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Jill Hirzel from Insight Investment stated in a report that the dollar may weaken as Trump's policies undermine the appeal of American exceptionalism and could lead to a decrease in capital inflows into the United States.Hirzel stated: "Policy uncertainty and a more aggressive 'America First' agenda may erode the cyclical support for the dollar, leading it into a period of sustained weakness." However, she also pointed out that investors should be cautious when overly betting on a decline in the dollar through short positions, as growth outside the United States is expected to be at best weak, and speculators may already hold significant short positions on the dollar.Furthermore, before signs of economic weakness emerge that are sufficient to concern policymakers, inflation-adjusted real interest rates may still remain elevated.

ChainCatcher news, Gene Goldman, Chief Investment Officer of Cetera Investment Management, commented on the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill: The bill provides clear benefits for businesses and households, which often support corporate profits and stock prices. We will overlook the fact that the Congressional Budget Office estimates the bill will add approximately $3 to $3.4 trillion in debt over the next decade. (The bill) may require larger issuances of government debt, which has already triggered caution in the bond market, evidenced by the rise in bond yields.Moreover, these higher deficits could push up inflation expectations. From the perspective of the stock industry, cyclical sectors are expected to benefit, particularly energy companies (removal of green energy subsidies), industrial companies (increased infrastructure spending), the financial sector (reduced uncertainty, general deregulation, and a steepening yield curve), and the consumer goods sector (tax cuts).

ChainCatcher news, analyst Timo Oinonen cited CryptoQuant data indicating that the amount of Bitcoin flowing into Binance from whale investors and retail investors has dropped to a cyclical low, suggesting that holders are still unwilling to sell under turbulent market conditions.

ChainCatcher news, Huobi HTX spokesperson and HTX DAO ambassador Molly (Huobi HTX Liu Ye) was invited to attend the "2025 HTX DAO Confidence Journey - Dubai Whale Night." At the event, Molly shared the latest achievements and future development plans of Huobi HTX and HTX DAO. She pointed out that Huobi HTX continues to lead in the global trading ecosystem, being the only platform among the Top 10 exchanges in the first quarter to achieve growth in spot trading volume, with a cumulative registered user base exceeding 50 million and a net inflow amount increasing by as much as 210% quarter-on-quarter, while maintaining a reserve ratio of over 100%. In her view, the remarkable achievements of Huobi HTX are attributed to the platform's ongoing efforts in safety transparency and market sensitivity.In addition, she further stated that in the future, Huobi HTX will deepen its strategic cooperation with HTX DAO to collaboratively empower sustainable ecological development. Through the DAO's voting mechanism, community members can widely participate in key aspects such as platform governance and new asset listing decisions, ensuring that the decision-making process is more open, transparent, and democratic. At the same time, Huobi HTX will continue to optimize in areas such as security assurance, trading experience, quality asset introduction, and product innovation, continuously enhancing the platform's overall competitiveness. Through the organic combination of centralization and decentralization, Huobi HTX and HTX DAO will jointly promote ecological prosperity, creating a more open, co-built, and shared crypto world.