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Arthur Hayes stated on the Coin Stories podcast that he will not invest the last dollar into Bitcoin at this time because the Federal Reserve has not yet been forced to expand liquidity. Arthur Hayes believes that tariff policies will lead to inflation and may prompt the U.S. to turn to capital controls, which will become a significant liquidity catalyst for Bitcoin.Arthur Hayes maintains a long-term target price for Bitcoin in this cycle between $250,000 and $750,000, but warns that if the U.S.-Iran conflict continues, Bitcoin may drop below $60,000 in the short term. Additionally, Charles Schwab confirmed that it will launch direct spot trading of Bitcoin and Ethereum through new accounts in the first half of 2026.Research from Mercado Bitcoin shows that Bitcoin consistently outperformed gold and the S&P 500 index within 60 days after significant global shocks. Currently, the price of Bitcoin has risen to around $67,300, while the cryptocurrency fear and greed index has remained in the extreme fear range for several weeks.

JPMorgan analysis indicates that the capital flow of digital assets in the first quarter of 2026 is approximately $11 billion, only about one-third of the same period last year, showing a significant slowdown in market momentum.At the current annualized pace, the total capital flow for the year may be around $44 billion, far below the historical peak of about $130 billion in 2025. In terms of capital structure, the main sources of inflow this quarter are corporate balance sheet allocations (especially companies like Strategy continuously buying Bitcoin) and crypto venture capital, while participation from traditional investors (including institutions and retail investors) has significantly declined. Additionally, CME Bitcoin futures positions have weakened, reflecting a negative shift in institutional demand; spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs experienced capital outflows in January, and although there was some inflow in March, the overall trend remains weak. The analysis suggests that the current market exhibits a structure characterized by "a few large funds dominating," rather than a broad capital return.

According to official news, Gate Booster will launch the fifth phase of promotional tasks from April 3 at 14:00 to April 17 at 14:00 (UTC+8). During the event, users can sign up to participate in the CandyDrop posting task, publish an original piece of content related to CandyDrop on X (Twitter)/YouTube/Facebook, and submit the link. Upon approval, they will receive an 800 MEZO reward. The total prize pool for this event is 100,000 MEZO, and the rewards are limited, available on a first-come, first-served basis.As a promotional task and incentive platform launched by Gate, Gate Booster targets KOLs in the crypto industry, content creators, community builders, and promotional partners. With standardized task processes and a transparent reward mechanism, it continuously provides promoters with priority participation in official events and stable incentive support, helping to enhance the influence and commercial value of individuals and institutions in the Web3 field.

According to the latest data from Dune and Visa, Ethereum's market share in the supply of non-USD stablecoins has dropped from 90% at the beginning of 2023 to 65% in February 2026, indicating that other blockchains are rapidly capturing the market. Nevertheless, Ethereum remains the primary chain for stablecoin issuance.It is noteworthy that Ethereum ranks only fifth in the number of independent senders in the stablecoin network, but the overall user adoption rate of the ecosystem continues to grow, with independent senders increasing from 2,000 at the same time last year to 12,000, reflecting the accelerated expansion of the stablecoin ecosystem.

According to market news, the crypto market sector is generally experiencing a pullback, with the NFT sector down 3.85% in the last 24 hours. Within the sector, Pudgy APE NFT (NFT) is down 0.58%, Penguins (PENGU) is down 2.13%, and ApeCoin (APE) is down 5.24%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) is down 1.06%, falling below $67,000. Ethereum (ETH) is down 2.52%, fluctuating around $2,000.In other sectors, the Meme sector is down 0.04% in the last 24 hours, with MemeCore (M) relatively strong, up 4.28%; the PayFi sector is down 1.16%, with Dash (DASH) down 4.01%; the Layer1 sector is down 1.45%, with Algorand (ALGO) rising against the trend by 7.61%; the Layer2 sector is down 1.88%, but Polygon (POL) is up 0.66%; the DeFi sector is down 2.11%, with EdgeX (EDGE) surging 13.38% during the day; the CeFi sector is down 1.65%, with Binance Coin (BNB) down 3.34%.The crypto sector index reflecting historical market trends shows that ssiDePIN is up 1.41%, while ssiCeFi and ssiLayer1 are down 3.01% and 2.05%, respectively.

Analyst Murphy stated that the average on-chain turnover cost of BTC held for 1-2 years (yellow line) has crossed with the average on-chain turnover cost of BTC held for 1-3 months (orange line). This signal can be almost 100% confirmed at the on-chain data level, marking that BTC has officially entered the latter half of the bear market.Additionally, Murphy mentioned that the long-term valuation indicator CVDD for Bitcoin proposed by well-known on-chain analyst Willy Woo reached $45,410 at the end of last month, a slow increase of only $506 since February 10. This reflects that early large whale holders have significantly reduced or even nearly stopped on-chain turnover.CVDD is one of the few indicators that has never failed in BTC's history—prices have always remained above CVDD, and bear market bottoms will only approach it infinitely but never fall below it. Therefore, even if there is a "final drop," BTC will not go below approximately $45,500, with a theoretical maximum decline of about 30%, but in reality, it is likely to be much smaller than that.

According to Gate market data, U.S. stocks opened lower and continued to decline, with the Nasdaq's drop expanding to 2%.

According to official news, Binance Alpha has added Checkmate (CHECK).Users with at least 242 Binance Alpha points can claim an airdrop of 500 CHECK tokens, first come, first served. If the reward pool is not fully distributed, the points threshold will automatically decrease by 5 points every 5 minutes.Claiming the airdrop will consume 15 Binance Alpha points. Users must confirm their claim on the Alpha event page within 24 hours; otherwise, it will be considered a forfeiture of the claim.

Defillama data shows that in March this year, the overall trading volume of DEX reached $202 billion, almost falling back to the level of March last year ($251.3 billion); in March, the trading volume of Solana DEX reached approximately $57.3 billion, dropping to the lowest point since September 2024.

According to Jinshi News, the European Stoxx 50 index futures have expanded their decline to 1.2%, the German DAX index futures have dropped by 1.2%, and the UK FTSE 100 index futures have fallen by 0.2%.

According to the official announcement, Gate DEX BountyDrop has launched the R2 airdrop event. Users can enter the BountyDrop module to participate in tasks through the "Events" page on Gate DEX. Among all participants who complete the tasks, 1,000 participants will be randomly selected to share 1,000,000 R2.In addition, Gate DEX officially launched the "Gas-Free Light Month" special program from March 28 at 18:00 to April 30 at 18:00 (UTC+8). It is reported that for new wallet users who create or import wallets within 7 days, Gate DEX offers 3 full-process gas-free benefits covering sending, authorization, and trading. Existing users can also regularly receive 3 advanced gas-free opportunities each month.Moreover, during the event period, there is a special enhancement of the "First Charge Payment" benefit. Users who recharge 5--100 USDT to the Gas Station for the first time will have the related on-chain fees fully covered by the platform, even if there are no native tokens in their wallets.Gate DEX is an industry-leading multi-chain crypto platform, providing a one-stop connection to over 100 public chains, millions of assets, and tens of thousands of DApps, offering a professional DEX experience and the best solutions for every DEX need. BountyDrop is a dedicated earning activity area in the discovery page of Gate DEX, where users can win rewards or participate in a lottery to obtain airdrop tokens by completing simple tasks.

According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April has dropped to 0.5% (it once rose to 12.4% on March 23), making the possibility of a rate hike almost negligible, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 99.5%.

According to official data, Gate's three major airdrop sectors performed steadily in March. Among them, Gate CandyDrop launched a total of 6 projects in March, with the trading volume of CandyDrop event contracts exceeding $15 billion and the number of participants surpassing 210,000. Gate Launchpool launched a total of 2 projects in March, with the IDOS project achieving a maximum annualized return of 751.33%. During the same period, the peak annualized return of Gate HODLer Airdrop reached 12.26%, with a staking amount of approximately $196 million.It is reported that since its launch a year ago, Gate CandyDrop has held a total of 152 events, adopting an innovative "task-driven" model. Users can earn "candies" by completing various tasks such as trading, recharging, and inviting friends, which can be exchanged for high-quality token airdrops. Gate Launchpool, as an innovative staking airdrop platform, supports staking of various tokens such as GT, BTC, ETH, USDT, and GUSD, distributing new coin airdrop rewards every hour, allowing for low-threshold participation with high annualized returns, helping users capture market opportunities. In addition, after users stake and choose to redeem, transferring assets to the 7-day fixed product of Yubi Treasure can add up to 116.667% additional airdrop rewards on top of the original staking returns. Gate HODLer Airdrop aims to discover high-quality potential projects, reducing investment risks through the airdrop mechanism, allowing users to easily participate in receiving free airdrops by holding just 1 GT.

The decentralized zero-knowledge proof verification layer Aligned updates the ALIGN token economics, with a total supply of 10 billion tokens and an initial circulation of approximately 16%.Of this, 23.5% will be allocated to the team (40% cliff unlock after 12 months, with the remaining portion unlocking linearly over 18 months), 19.71% will be allocated to investors, 18% will be allocated for the ecosystem (3.23% unlock at TGE, 6 months cliff unlock, with the remaining portion unlocking linearly over 24 months), 16.61% will be used for future reserves (40.24% unlock at TGE, 6 months cliff unlock, with the remaining portion unlocking linearly over 24 months), 11.4% will be allocated to the foundation (37.83% unlock at TGE, with the remaining portion unlocking linearly over 30 months), 8.74% will be used for airdrops (44.36% unlock at TGE), and 2.04% will be used for community sales (32.72% unlock at TGE).

Arkham posted on the X platform that currently about 69.5% of EdgeX's supply is stored in addresses directly transferred from the initial developer wallet, some of which may belong to market makers and may be transferred to exchanges in the future.Additionally, 7% of the supply remains in the airdrop wallet and has not yet been allocated, estimating the current actual circulation ratio to be only about 9.5%. EdgeX nominally airdropped approximately $195 million to users, but after on-chain analysts raised questions, the project team admitted that 14% of the total supply was actually allocated to partners and liquidity providers, which at the current valuation amounts to about $94.6 million, nearly half of the total airdrop amount.

USD.AI officially announced on X that the CHIP airdrop is now open for claims. Participants of 1CO and the airdrop can now claim, and the claim deadline is May 30, 2026.

According to Cointelegraph, Solana's native token SOL fell about 11% after hitting resistance at $93 last Wednesday, showing significantly weaker performance compared to the overall cryptocurrency market, and has tested the $80 support level multiple times. Meanwhile, Solana network fees have declined for two consecutive months, raising market concerns that its price may further retrace to the $75 level.In addition, in March, Solana network fees dropped to $18.5 million, a 42% decrease from January's $30 million, mainly affected by the shrinking trading volume of decentralized exchanges (DEX). Data shows that Solana DEX trading volume fell to $55.5 billion, the lowest level since September 2024. Solana's current total value locked (TVL) is approximately $6.3 billion, still significantly lagging behind Ethereum's $54.1 billion. However, in the past 30 days, Solana network fees remain 80% higher, mainly due to Ethereum reducing mainnet fees through Layer 2 Rollup and data Blob mechanisms.

According to Gate market data, the US dollar index DXY has dropped 30 points in the short term, currently reported at 99.89.

According to the official announcement from Binance Wallet, users holding at least 242 Binance Alpha Points can start claiming tokens on a first-come, first-served basis from today at 12:30 (UTC, approximately 20:30 Beijing time) until the airdrop pool is exhausted or the event expires.

Market maker Wintermute's latest market weekly report indicates that the ratio of Bitcoin perpetual contract trading volume to spot trading volume has risen to 15 times, while the funding rate volatility has dropped to a low point in this cycle, showing that market leverage is high but there is insufficient directional consensus. The current structure is closer to "compression and accumulation," or brewing significant unilateral volatility.Wintermute believes that if geopolitical tensions ease and oil prices fall back to around $100, short positions will face the risk of being squeezed to between $70,000 and $74,000. If the situation continues to ease, the resistance level at $74,000 may be tested.Conversely, if the situation escalates further and oil prices rise to $120, oil prices could drop to just above $60, and if the cyclical trend is similar, it could fall to the mid-high $50,000 range. More macro-wise, the directionality here is not important; what matters is the market structure itself. The leverage on futures contracts is high, capital flows are fluctuating within the narrowest range ever recorded, and volatility is also narrowing.Regarding which direction the catalysts ultimately develop, the market structure indicates that the resulting volatility will far exceed the levels currently reflected in spot, futures, and options prices.