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Gray Research Director: Ethereum is like a "small country," and the issuance of ETH determines the balance between network security and currency

Zach Pandl, the head of research at Grayscale, posted on the X platform comparing Ethereum to a "small country" and discussed the ETH issuance mechanism. He believes that Ethereum has only one core "government function": to protect property rights and value exchange within the system. Unlike traditional countries that provide public services through taxation, Ethereum primarily funds network security through "seigniorage," which is the issuance of new ETH.In this framework, the stakers responsible for maintaining network security are akin to a group providing public services, as they receive rewards through newly issued ETH. Therefore, Ethereum's staking mechanism and ETH issuance policy essentially constitute the network's fiscal and monetary policy. Zach Pandl pointed out that the Ethereum community needs to decide how much "new currency" should be used to cover network security costs. More security typically means stronger protection of property rights, but at the cost of a higher ETH issuance rate and potential other risks.For example, if network security increasingly relies on a few large staking service providers, there remains room for discussion about whether these providers can maintain the asset rights of all users completely neutrally. Pandl believes that, just as in traditional economies, no one knows the "optimal level" of government spending and currency issuance; the same applies to Ethereum. However, Ethereum has several key security thresholds, including: 1/3: an attacker reaching this ratio may affect finality; 1/2: affects blockchain fork choice; 2/3: can control the finality process. Some community members believe that the design of Ethereum's monetary and fiscal policy should consider the security trade-offs brought by these key ratios, while the current mechanism has not adequately incorporated these factors. However, the above analogy is not entirely accurate, as it does not yet involve other important factors such as the ETH burn mechanism, MEV, governance, etc.

Gray Research Director: ETH and SOL may face supply contraction, and the reduction of inflation mechanisms will strengthen token scarcity

Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl stated that the two major blockchain networks, Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), are considering adjusting their token economic models to enhance asset scarcity by reducing future token supply growth through lowering annual inflation rates. As important native assets supporting stablecoins and tokenized asset ecosystems, the prices of ETH and SOL are primarily determined by supply and demand dynamics. If the relevant code upgrade proposals are approved, under unchanged conditions, lower supply growth may provide support for token prices.According to Grayscale's analysis, if the relevant adjustments are implemented, the supply inflation rates of BTC, ETH, and SOL will continue to decline over the next five years. By the end of 2031, the annual inflation rates for Bitcoin and Ethereum are expected to be around 0.4%, and Solana around 1.1%, which is lower than gold's annual supply growth rate of about 1.8% and the U.S. CPI inflation level of about 3.3%. Currently, these token economic adjustments are still in the community discussion phase. Among them, the Solana-related proposal has gained broader support and has a higher likelihood of implementation; the Ethereum proposal still requires further discussion.If the adjustments are implemented, staking users may face reduced token rewards, as part of the staking income comes from the issuance of new tokens. However, due to the decline in the growth rate of circulating supply, the scarcity value of the tokens may increase, potentially providing price support. For ETH and SOL holders who do not participate in staking, they may benefit directly; the final returns for stakers will depend on the balance between the decrease in rewards and the increase in prices. Zach Pandl concluded that ETH and SOL are becoming important digital commodities supporting stablecoins and the tokenization of real assets, and the economic model adjustments aimed at reducing inflation may further strengthen their scarcity attributes.

first_img Grayscale: The global alternative asset scale has grown nearly 7 times since 2008, and the allocation preferences of the younger generation are favorable for cryptocurrency

Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl stated that the global alternative asset market has grown nearly 7 times since the 2008 financial crisis, with the share of private equity, private credit, hedge funds, physical assets, and cryptocurrency in global portfolios continuing to rise. According to the data he cited, within alternative assets, private equity accounts for about 29%, hedge funds about 23%, and cryptocurrency about 13%.Zach Pandl mentioned that differences in intergenerational allocation preferences may further strengthen this trend. According to a Bank of America survey of high-net-worth individuals, investors aged 21 to 43 allocate about 53% of their assets outside of traditional stocks and bonds, while the proportion for those aged 44 and above is 26%. With over $100 trillion in wealth expected to transfer to younger generations in the coming years, their stronger preference for alternative assets may provide ongoing tailwinds for cryptocurrency.He added that the lowering of entry barriers to alternative assets is one of the reasons for this shift, with cryptocurrency developing along similar paths; regulated products like Bitcoin ETPs and institutional-grade market infrastructure provide more convenient access to exposure.

Grayscale: The Bitcoin covered call option strategy has an annualized return of about 22% in a sideways market

Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that if the price of Bitcoin has formed a solid bottom but is consolidating before recovery, a covered call strategy can generate income through Bitcoin volatility while managing spot price exposure. Grayscale assumes a Bitcoin spot price of $65,000 and an implied volatility of 40%, projected until the end of 2026. Under this assumption, the covered call strategy has an annualized return of about 22%, remaining profitable above a breakeven price of approximately $58,500, and outperforming holding spot Bitcoin alone when Bitcoin reaches about $72,500 at expiration.Pandl pointed out that option premiums provide income and downside protection, at the cost of giving up some upside potential when Bitcoin rises significantly. If the Bitcoin spot price falls below the breakeven price, the strategy will still incur losses, but the extent of the loss will be less than directly going long on spot Bitcoin, with the difference equivalent to the call option premium. Grayscale's Grayscale Bitcoin Covered Call ETF, with the ticker BTCC, aims to maximize income generation potential through writing covered calls. The fund does not directly invest in digital assets or initial coin offerings but gains indirect exposure to digital assets through derivatives related to exchange-traded products that hold digital assets.
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