negotiation

According to CCTV International News citing American media reports, U.S. President Trump said today (April 19) in an interview, "For security reasons, U.S. Vice President Pence will not attend the U.S.-Iran negotiations again."According to Trump, U.S. presidential envoy Hook and Kushner will arrive in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, on the evening of April 20, Eastern Time, to participate in the U.S.-Iran negotiations scheduled for April 21.

According to Jinshi reports, global markets significantly rebounded over the past week driven by expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, but core uncertainties remain unresolved. Iran once announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rapid decline in oil prices, a broad strengthening of risk assets, U.S. stocks reaching new highs, a weakening dollar, and gold approaching the $4900 mark. However, Iran subsequently signaled that it "is still under military control," combined with the U.S. maintaining sanctions against Iran, which has heightened market concerns about the volatility of the situation.On the macro level, the biggest variable next week will still be the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations. U.S. President Trump stated that negotiations may advance over the weekend and warned that if an agreement is not reached by next Wednesday, the ceasefire could end, and there is a risk of renewed conflict; meanwhile, Iran's attitude towards negotiations remains cautious, especially with significant differences on key issues such as uranium enrichment. The market has currently shifted from "pricing in conflict escalation" to "pricing in a path to easing," but any sudden changes could still trigger sharp asset fluctuations.In terms of interest rate expectations, the decline in energy prices has alleviated inflationary pressures, and the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year have risen to about 60%. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh will attend a Senate hearing next week, and his policy stance (especially whether it leans dovish) will become an important variable affecting gold and risk assets.On Tuesday at 20:30, U.S. March retail sales month-on-month;On Thursday at 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18;On Thursday at 21:45, U.S. April S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMI preliminary;On Friday at 22:00, U.S. April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value, one-year inflation expectations final value;In the short term, the market's main focus will revolve around three major variables: progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, oil price trends, and signals from the Federal Reserve.

According to the Iranian Tasnim News Agency on the 18th, Iran has not yet agreed to hold the next round of negotiations with the United States.

According to Reuters, U.S. President Trump stated that he may go to Islamabad once an agreement is reached, but no decision has been made yet. There may be more negotiations regarding the Iran agreement this weekend.

JPMorgan analysts have stated that negotiations for the U.S. "Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act" (i.e., the CLARITY Act) have entered the final stages, with both sides reaching compromises on a few remaining contentious points. The number of disputes has been reduced from over a dozen to 2-3 core issues, with discussions on stablecoin rewards being "in a good place." While banks express concerns about stablecoins offering similar yields to deposits, there is an overall bipartisan compromise trend. JPMorgan believes that "there is no perfect bill," and once passed, the bill will provide important regulatory clarity for the integration of digital assets into the U.S. financial system.The "Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act" is currently in advanced negotiations in the U.S. Senate, with Senate staff stating that the draft is "very close" to resolution, but the final text has not yet been released, nor has a formal vote been scheduled. The remaining major disagreements focus on stablecoin rewards, DeFi regulation, and token classification issues. Although optimism is rising, there is still a risk of delays due to the 2026 midterm elections, which could lead to a more uncertain political environment. If the bill is ultimately passed, it will delineate the regulatory authority between the SEC and CFTC, providing a long-term regulatory framework for stablecoins, DeFi, and the entire cryptocurrency industry.

U.S. President Trump told the New York Post that negotiations regarding Iran "may take place in Pakistan within the next two days," and we are more "inclined" to hold the negotiations on the Iran issue in Pakistan.

According to Jinshi reports, the failure of peace negotiations between the United States and Iran has led the bond market to focus on inflation issues and strengthened expectations that interest rates will remain high. Investors in the U.S. Treasury market face the risk that rising energy costs may exacerbate price pressures, delaying the Federal Reserve's rate cut actions.Last Friday, the monthly increase in the U.S. March CPI reached its highest level since 2022, prompting the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to exceed 4.3%, with yields further rising by 3 basis points on Monday to reach 4.35%.

According to Iranian sources, the negotiations between Iran and the U.S. ended a few minutes ago on the morning of the 12th local time. The U.S.'s excessively high demands hindered the achievement of a common framework and agreement, and no agreement was reached.U.S. Vice President Vance stated at a press conference held in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, on the 12th that the U.S. has not yet reached a consensus with Iran and will return to the United States.

According to Jinshi, citing the Iranian Tasnim News Agency, negotiations between Iran and the United States have entered the stage of discussing some technical details after initial consultations and some principled discussions. Experts from both sides are currently engaged in in-depth discussions on specific issues.It is reported that although the negotiations were initially planned to last one day, there is a possibility of extending for another day due to the numerous technical issues. However, this has not yet been finalized.

According to a report by Jinshi, citing CCTV news, on the 11th local time, Iranian government spokesperson Mohajerani stated that Iran has sent a diplomatic team led by Speaker Ghalibaf to participate in the US-Iran negotiations, demonstrating Iran's willingness to engage in dialogue.She emphasized that, as the Iranian president previously stated, Iran will negotiate with "its finger on the trigger." Although Iran is willing to engage in dialogue, there is a lack of trust in the other party, so the Iranian diplomatic team will participate in the negotiations with the utmost caution. Mohajerani hopes that under the guidance of the Supreme Leader, the Iranian negotiating team can achieve success.

According to a report by Jinshi citing Xinhua News Agency, Iran's First Vice President Arif posted on social media on the 11th that if Iran negotiates with U.S. representatives in Islamabad, Pakistan, under the "America First" policy, it is very likely to reach an agreement that is beneficial for both parties and even the world.However, if faced with U.S. representatives under the "Israel First" policy, then no agreement will be reached, and "we will inevitably continue to defend ourselves more resolutely than ever, and the world will pay a greater price."

According to a report by CNN on the 11th, citing a senior Pakistani source, U.S. Vice President Vance played a key role in facilitating the U.S.-Iran negotiations set to start in Islamabad, Pakistan.The source familiar with the negotiation process stated that they estimate it will take several days of negotiations to finalize a ceasefire agreement, and Pakistani officials hope to persuade Vance to extend his stay in Pakistan to assist in this matter.Additionally, a senior source from the Gulf region revealed that Iran has very low trust in U.S. President Trump's envoy, Witkoff. Previously, Witkoff had led multiple rounds of negotiations with Iran, but these negotiations were interrupted due to U.S. military strikes against Iran. Witkoff is one of the members of the U.S. delegation participating in the Islamabad negotiations.

According to a report by Jinshi citing Xinhua News Agency, a U.S. negotiating delegation led by Vice President Vance arrived on the 11th at the Nur Khan Air Base located in the city of Rawalpindi near the capital of Pakistan, Islamabad.

According to reports from Al Hadath, citing Arab media, sources say that the technical delegations from the United States and Iran arrived in Pakistan on Friday morning local time. The Iranian delegation will participate in negotiations on Saturday, despite having expressed some views on the events in Lebanon. Details of the Iranian delegation's arrival in Pakistan are kept confidential.

According to CCTV News, on the evening of April 10, Pakistan time, the U.S. delegation participating in the U.S.-Iran negotiations set off for Islamabad, Pakistan, and Vice President Pence has boarded the plane.Before departing, Pence expressed his anticipation for negotiations on the Iran issue and stated that President Trump has provided "quite clear guidelines" for the negotiations.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has risen nearly 7% since Sunday, but the upward momentum has slowed after reaching the $72,000 range, with institutional fund direction unclear. The market is focused on two major uncertainties: the U.S. March CPI data (expected to exceed 3% year-on-year, driven by energy prices) and the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations over the weekend.The options market shows that institutions are simultaneously favoring $80,000 call options on Deribit and BlackRock's IBIT-related call options while maintaining a high proportion of put options to hedge against downside risks. If the CPI exceeds expectations, it may strengthen the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations, putting pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.