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According to Jinshi News, JPMorgan Chase expects the second interest rate hike to follow the same path, planning to release new forecasts in June, subsequently confirming the new benchmark, and raising interest rates in July.

Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett posted on the X platform that Patrick Witt, the Executive Director of the White House Cryptocurrency Council, attended a Senate Republican meeting on cryptocurrency market structure.After the meeting, Lummis told reporters that negotiations around yields and returns are making progress but are still in a "delicate state," with the focus shifting from the upcoming legislative text to "the parties that need to be engaged." Lummis stated that the meeting provided an unexpectedly forward path. Patrick Witt appeared frustrated after the meeting and did not comment on the content of the meeting. Tim Scott also declined to comment afterward, stating he would not be giving interviews to reporters in the hallway.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the median forecast for the interest rate path has not changed, but there has been a significant increase in the number of people leaning towards fewer rate cuts.

According to the official website of the SEC, Paul Atkins, the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, announced new cryptocurrency guidelines at the DC Blockchain Summit, and proposed the concept of a regulatory safe harbor for crypto assets, which includes three exemption pathways:Startup Exemption: A maximum of four years, allowing projects to have a regulatory buffer period before reaching maturity, with a fundraising limit of no more than $5 million within four years, requiring the submission of principal disclosure information.Financing Exemption: Allowing up to $75 million in fundraising within 12 months, requiring the submission of disclosure documents to the SEC that include principal disclosures, financial status, and financial statements.Investment Contract Safe Harbor: When the issuer completes or permanently ceases core management efforts under the investment contract, the relevant crypto assets may be exempt from the definition of securities.Atkins stated that this framework draws on Congress's work in recent years, particularly the CLARITY Act, and proposed rules are expected to be released for public comment in the coming weeks.

According to Jin Ten, Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist at Annex Wealth Management, stated that the February inflation data was originally heading in the right direction, but the emergence of the Middle East conflict has changed that trajectory. Energy, which could have brought about deflation, is now likely to lead to inflation. Due to the chaos in the fertilizer market, food prices may also begin to show signs of accelerating inflation. The Federal Reserve is likely to emphasize maintaining interest rates, but monetary policy cannot reopen the Strait of Hormuz, so these tough statements are likely to be merely verbal.

Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett posted on the X platform, stating that a review of the trial case of Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm revealed that Judge Failla used a self-driving car analogy in the lawsuit against Uniswap by user Nessa Risle, and seemed to show more sympathy towards the developers behind Uniswap, while being stricter with the developers of Tornado Cash.According to related materials shared by Eleanor Terrett, the judge's viewpoint was that holding software developers responsible for the misuse of neutral infrastructure by strangers would be illogical, considering Uniswap as "neutral infrastructure," while Tornado Cash was deemed to have "engaged in illegal financial activities" (continuing operations despite knowing it was being used for money laundering). This statement indicates that U.S. courts may reference whether developers are merely providing neutral tools rather than participating in illegal activities when determining liability related to decentralized finance (DeFi) infrastructure in the future.

Gate CBO Kevin Lee recently published an article titled "War, War Never Changes... How Will the Macro Market Move?" regarding the recent situation in the Middle East. He pointed out that geopolitical conflicts themselves do not alter the fundamental operating logic of the market; what truly determines the medium-term direction of assets is the impact of the prolonged conflict on the inflation path and changes in central bank policy orientation.Kevin stated that within hours to days after the outbreak of conflict, crude oil typically experiences significant volatility first, as the market prices in the tail risk of supply disruptions; gold then activates, serving both as a safe haven and an inflation hedge; the stock market faces short-term pressure, with VIX rising rapidly and significant sector divergence.As the situation progresses from several days to two weeks, if energy supply is not continuously damaged, oil prices and risk premiums often retrace, and stocks and crypto assets rebound with the recovery of risk sentiment; however, if high oil prices persist for an extended period, inflation expectations will be systematically elevated, shifting the asset pricing logic from a trading perspective to a macro perspective.The article further emphasizes that what truly changes the trend is not the market reaction on the day of the conflict but the inflation data and policy expectations that gradually emerge weeks later. Over a longer cycle, the market will reprice around the evolution path of inflation, the credibility of monetary policy, and the economic growth outlook. Historical experience repeatedly proves that in high-uncertainty environments, emotional decision-making often comes at a high cost; understanding the transmission sequence and respecting cyclical patterns are key to navigating volatility.

According to Jinshi News, Saira Malik from Nuveen Investments stated in a research report that the broad impact of the U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran remains to be seen. He believes that global markets may experience more volatility, and its far-reaching effects will become clearer over time.Although the surge in oil prices may drive up inflation, Malik expects this will not affect the Federal Reserve's policy in the short term. He maintains his forecast of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year and believes that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will fluctuate around the 4% range.

The founder of Binance, CZ, responded to early Bitcoin investor Davinci Jeremie regarding the "zero balance" experience of his multi-signature wallet, stating that if a wallet software upgrade changes the derivation path, it is "very bad and scary," referring to it as "self custody perks."Previously, Davinci pointed out that his 2-of-3 multi-signature wallet was unable to find the original address and balance despite using the correct private key due to a software change in the derivation path, and he ultimately relied on the saved old path to recover it. Several industry participants added that different standards (such as BIP44, BIP84, BIP86) can generate different addresses under the same mnemonic phrase, and if a wallet upgrade is not adequately prompted and migrated, it could lead to users misjudging the risk of asset loss.

According to CoinDesk, Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, compared the current situation of Bitcoin, which has fallen about 45% from its peak, to Apple's "low point" in 2013 during a recent interview, emphasizing that every successful technology investment must undergo similar adjustments.He pointed out that the current Bitcoin pullback has lasted for 137 days, but it may take several years to fully recover, just as Apple took 7 years to regain market confidence. Saylor believes that structural changes, such as the migration of the derivatives market to U.S. regulatory markets, are compressing volatility, limiting what could have been an 80% drop to a range of 40%-50%. He also dismissed the threats of quantum computing and the Epstein-related controversies, stating that these are merely evolving panic narratives that do not pose a substantial threat to the Bitcoin network.

According to Cointelegraph, U.S. Senator Bernie Moreno stated that the cryptocurrency market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, is expected to pass in Congress before April. Moreno mentioned in an interview with CNBC that there is now a clear path for the bill's advancement.Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, in the same interview, stated that there were previously disagreements regarding the interest-bearing provisions for stablecoins and regulatory jurisdiction, but all parties are currently seeking a "win-win" solution. The report noted that the stablecoin yield provisions are one of the main points of contention in the bill's progress.Moreno also expressed that he does not believe the results of the midterm elections will affect the bill's passage. Previously, officials from the White House also expressed positive expectations for the bill's advancement earlier this year.

"Fed's mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that the content not mentioned in this Federal Reserve meeting minutes is more worthy of attention. He pointed out that in several meetings last year until December, staff predicted that the inflation rate would fall to 2% by 2027, but the December minutes pushed the timeline back to 2028.In the January meeting minutes, there was no specific mention of when the inflation rate would reach 2%, only indicating that the values were "slightly higher and balanced" compared to the December forecast, and it was expected that the impact of tariffs would end after mid-year, with inflation returning to the previous downward trend. The previous mention of "reaching 2% by 2028" did not reappear.Nick Timiraos hinted that this reflects a weakening confidence from the Federal Reserve regarding the inflation path, influenced by tight resource utilization and rising import prices. The official minutes confirmed a slightly higher forecast than in December but did not specify a return year, highlighting policy uncertainty.

The 22 bitcoins held by the Gangnam Police Station in South Korea during an investigation have been confirmed to have leaked, amounting to approximately 2.1 billion won at current prices. These bitcoins were voluntarily submitted assets received by the police during a case investigation in 2021. The investigation shows that the cold wallet entity was not hacked, but internal assets were transferred out. Law enforcement agencies have launched an investigation into the flow of internal transactions and the possibility of internal involvement. This incident was discovered during a nationwide inspection following the disclosure of the theft of 320 bitcoins from the Gwangju District Prosecutor's Office.

The 22 bitcoins held by the Gangnam Police Station in South Korea during an investigation have been confirmed to have leaked, amounting to approximately 2.1 billion Korean won at current prices. These bitcoins were voluntarily submitted assets received by the police during a case investigation in 2021.The investigation shows that the cold wallet entity was not hacked, but internal assets were transferred out. Law enforcement agencies have launched an investigation into the flow of assets and the possibility of internal involvement. It is reported that this incident was discovered during a nationwide inspection following the disclosure of the theft of 320 bitcoins from the Gwangju District Prosecutor's Office.

In discussions related to Consensus HK, Yoyee, the head of institutional business at Bybit, stated that RWA is an important practical path for effectively bridging Web2 and Web3.She pointed out that there are already relatively mature solutions available in the market:Real-world assets are custodied by trusted custodians or banks, allowing investors to enjoy the returns from the underlying assets; at the same time, they are mapped onto the blockchain for circulation and trading on platforms, enhancing returns and improving liquidity.This model ensures asset security while introducing on-chain liquidity and trading efficiency, creating a win-win structure for custodians, platforms, and investors.RWA is gradually transitioning from narrative to a replicable financial model.

According to Xinhua News Agency's client report, eight departments have issued a document further emphasizing that virtual currency-related activities are illegal financial activities, and have defined compliance boundaries for RWA tokenization as "strictly prohibited domestically and strictly regulated abroad," specifically naming Shuqin Technology as a pioneer in RWA compliance.It is reported that Shuqin Technology is a blockchain company based in Hangzhou. Public information shows that its founder was involved in founding "Yibit" and served as CTO, being one of the earliest blockchain entrepreneurs in the country. Previously, Shuqin Technology had explored RBA (Real Business Assets), relying on "fully trustworthy data" to structurally present business operations, revenues, and risks, and has formed a "triple credit enhancement" governance framework: supporting asset sustainability with real business, achieving verifiability and traceability with trustworthy data, and preemptively establishing compliance requirements and responsibility boundaries through governance structure. At the same time, Shuqin has introduced the "granular data" methodology, breaking down business into the smallest verifiable units, fully presenting the business process chain to meet key requirements such as authenticity, traceability, and risk isolation, providing underlying support for new productive enterprises to connect with international capital.

According to Jin Shi reports, UBS Global Wealth Management pointed out in a report that although the January non-farm payroll report was stronger than expected, evidence of a decline in U.S. inflation in the coming months should allow the Federal Reserve to maintain its plans for further rate cuts. Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele stated that the institution's baseline scenario remains a 25 basis point cut in both June and September, which will create a favorable environment for stocks, bonds, and gold. Data from the London Stock Exchange shows that after the non-farm data was released, the money market adjusted its expectations for the total rate cuts by the Federal Reserve for the year from about 60 basis points to about 50 basis points, and pushed back the pricing for the next rate cut from June to July.