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Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin stated that, in the context of the increasing prevalence of AI agents, cryptographic privacy technologies are crucial for protecting users' API call patterns and behavioral data. He pointed out that even with local AI agents, if external services can see all search or API call records, they can still infer the activities users are engaged in.Vitalik believes that a preliminary solution is to forward requests through a mixnet to hide the source of access, but service providers may demand the introduction of anti-abuse mechanisms and pay-per-call models due to facing DoS attacks. In reality, these payment methods often rely on credit cards or stablecoin systems that lack privacy protection. Therefore, he emphasized the need for cryptographic payment solutions with privacy attributes.He further noted that privacy protection needs to be considered from a full stack perspective, with the local AI agent layer being particularly critical. Vitalik likened it to the issue of healthy lifespan: if there are multiple damaging factors, addressing them one by one can yield cumulative benefits; similarly, measures to reduce the risk of data leakage can produce similar compound effects.

According to Cointelegraph, Glassnode analysts stated that Bitcoin whales are accumulating during the pullback, with the average outflow on exchanges reaching 3.2% on the 30th, similar to the pattern observed before the bull market began in the first half of 2022.

According to Cointelegraph, the price of Ethereum is facing further downside risks. The technical analysis shows that ETH has entered a typical "Inverse Cup and Handle" breakout phase, and if the pattern completes, the target price points to around $1665, indicating about a 25% downside from the current level. From the trend, ETH broke below the neckline of approximately $2960 in January, subsequently rebounding to test that level but facing resistance and falling back, while failing to regain the 20-day and 50-day EMA, both of which have turned into significant overhead pressure.Multiple technical signals resonate, reinforcing the expectation of continued short-term declines. On-chain data is also bearish. The extreme deviation range of MVRV indicates that ETH's potential downside target is around $1725, and further declines cannot be ruled out. Historically, ETH has often gradually bottomed out and started to rebound after touching or breaking below the lower MVRV boundary. On a macro level, market risk appetite for crypto assets is declining, with some traders concerned that a similar overall correction to past "four-year cycles" may occur in 2026; at the same time, expectations of a potential "AI bubble" burst are also prompting funds to avoid high-risk assets, exacerbating the downward pressure on ETH.

On-chain data analyst Murphy posted on social media that after Bitcoin reached a high of $97,000 on January 15, it quickly dropped to $73,000, swiftly breaking through the psychological support of $80,000. Under the dominance of panic sentiment, the trapped positions above $80,000 have net decreased by over 610,000 coins within 20 days, accounting for 88% of the total outflow, becoming the main source of selling pressure.However, on-chain URPD data reveals an important structural change: the selling pressure from long-term holders has significantly weakened (only accounting for 9.7% of the reduction), indicating a clear reluctance to sell among long-term holders. Meanwhile, there has been strong buying in the $70,000-$80,000 range, with a net purchase of about 450,000 BTC, nearly double the absorption volume in the $80,000-$90,000 range, suggesting that some funds are "buying more as prices drop," using real money to layer their resistance.Murphy stated that the difference in this cycle compared to previous ones is that bulls are showing sustained and layered defense during the decline, with the accumulation zones gradually moving down rather than collapsing in a step-like manner. Although there are pessimistic predictions that "the bear bottom will see $50,000 or $30,000," once the bears compress the bulls' defense to the extreme, coupled with a lack of supply, the market may welcome a strong counterattack from the bulls.

Cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo's latest chart shows that Bitcoin's current long-term capital inflows have not yet experienced a large-scale influx of funds similar to previous bull market cycles, indicating that the market still follows the traditional four-year cycle rhythm.Although the BTC price has reached $91,000, the inflow trend remains in a moderate phase, similar to the "accumulation phase" at the beginning of 2020. Woo points out that unless there is a significant non-cyclical capital behavior in 2026, the claim of the "end of Bitcoin's four-year cycle" is not valid, and the current data still supports the cyclical upward logic.

According to observations from Gate Research Institute, this Friday will see approximately $2 billion in concentrated BTC and ETH options expiration, while the implied volatility (IV) for BTC and ETH remains at 43% and 61%, respectively, still within a recent low range. Over the past week, the 25-Delta Skew for BTC and ETH has shown a low-level repair and negative bias convergence trend, with the short-term (7D) improvement being the most significant, reflecting a noticeable cooling in short-term downside protection demand. Meanwhile, large trades buying BTC-300126-100000-C have accumulated approximately 3,000 BTC, with a net premium expenditure of about $3.2 million, indicating that mainstream funds are more inclined to position themselves with bullish structural strategies above key support levels.Gate has exclusively launched a convenient options trading tool—rolling sell options product, which assists users in automatically and continuously selling options within a set period. Users can customize Delta/Strike contract selection, expiration date settings (T+1/T+2/T+3), selling price execution methods, quantities, and optional take-profit and stop-loss parameters. The strategy will automatically execute opening positions daily and seamlessly transition to the next period after expiration, achieving fully automated operation. This feature supports clear risk indicator displays, margin estimates, expected trading paths, and other auxiliary information to help users manage strategy execution more intuitively.

Miller Value Partners Chief Investment Officer Bill Miller IV stated that the current technical formation of Bitcoin is improving, and the price trend "looks ready to take off again." In an interview with CNBC, he pointed out that technically, Bitcoin may break through previous highs, linking this judgment to changes in the U.S. regulatory environment and Wall Street's ongoing push for on-chain initiatives.Miller IV mentioned the remarks by SEC Chairman Paul Atkins about the gradual migration of capital markets to on-chain, as well as traditional financial institutions, including JPMorgan, continuously building on-chain infrastructure. He also noted that Bitcoin's price had experienced periodic pullbacks and underperformed gold, which is not unusual; considering its volatility, it should be observed from a longer-term price cycle perspective. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin's current price is approximately $93,750, down from last year's historical high but still showing some gains since 2026.

On the first trading day of 2026, the RMB against the USD continued its appreciation trend. Today, the RMB against the USD reached a maximum of 6.977 during the trading session, once again hitting a new high since mid-May 2023. At 16:30, the closing price of the RMB against the USD was reported at 6.9806, an increase of 84 basis points from the previous trading day, marking a new high since May 17, 2023.Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, expects that in January, supported by seasonal demand for foreign exchange settlement, the RMB may still have room for appreciation. However, the RMB against the USD midpoint has deviated towards depreciation compared to the closing price of the spot exchange rate, which may indicate a certain pro-cyclical behavior in the foreign exchange market recently.Overall, under the policy tone of regulatory authorities to maintain the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level and to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate, although the RMB exchange rate may still operate on the strong side in January, it is expected that there will not be a significant appreciation, and it may fluctuate bidirectionally in the range of 6.9-7 for most of the time, Wen Bin pointed out.

Matrixport released a chart today stating that during the last cycle, Ethereum attracted incremental funds due to expectations of expansion in the smart contract platform ecosystem and the narrative of "programmable money," driving prices up rapidly from 2020 to 2021; at the peak of sentiment in 2021, the market once had expectations of reaching $10,000. However, the trend did not continue upward.After retreating from its high, Ethereum entered a long-term consolidation phase, generally moving within a large triangular consolidation range. Over the past few years, the price has primarily fluctuated within this range, with no significant trend. Structurally, the price has attempted to break out of the range twice (once downward and once upward), but neither attempt was sustained, and it quickly returned to the range. Until a direction is confirmed, the market will remain primarily in a state of fluctuation. The current triangular formation is clearly converging, with the price's operating space continuously compressing, and the structure is approaching its conclusion.As this long-term consolidation gradually comes to an end, 2026 may become a key window for Ethereum to complete its directional choice and enter the next phase of movement.

glassnode published this week's market analysis stating that the market continues to fluctuate within a fragile and time-sensitive structure, influenced by significant supply, rising realized losses, and persistently weakening demand. Prices were blocked around $93,000 and subsequently fell back to $85,600, reflecting the dense supply accumulated in the $93,000 to $120,000 range, with previous strong buyers continuously suppressing the price rebound.As long as the price remains below the 0.75 percentile (approximately $95,000) and fails to return to the short-term holding cost benchmark of $101,500, the upside potential may be limited. Despite the pressure, patient demand has so far kept the real market average around $81,300, preventing further price declines. Spot demand remains selectively strong, corporate capital flows are intermittent, and futures positions continue to reduce risk rather than rebuild confidence.The options market has reinforced this range-bound pattern, with near-month contract volatility narrowing, and while downside risks remain, they are relatively stable, with expiration-driven positions limiting price movements until late December. In summary, Bitcoin is currently caught between structural support around $81,000 and ongoing selling pressure above. For a substantial shift to occur, either sellers need to exhaust all selling above $95,000, or new liquidity needs to flow in to absorb supply and reclaim the critical cost basis level.

Matrixport published a daily analysis indicating that Bitcoin is currently maintaining a consolidation trend, with prices fluctuating around $88,528. Although the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in January, and recent liquidity injections have released some dovish signals, the overall policy language remains neutral, making it difficult for institutional investors to make significant allocation adjustments in the short term.Independent analyst Markus Thielen pointed out that as the Christmas holiday approaches, Bitcoin's implied volatility is likely to decline, with institutional funds tending to be cautious. Additionally, the current cycle shows weak retail participation, limiting the market's recovery potential. It is worth noting that since October 10, Bitcoin has been in an overall downward structure, but there may be a chance for a phase reversal in January. Investors are advised to remain patient and wait for clearer directional signals.

Bernstein, a Wall Street firm, pointed out in its latest analysis report: "Given the recent market adjustments, we believe the Bitcoin cycle has broken the four-year pattern (i.e., peaks occurring every four years) and is currently entering an extended bull market cycle, with more resilient institutional buying funds offsetting any retail panic selling. Although Bitcoin has retraced about 30%, we have observed that the outflow of funds through ETFs is less than 5%.Accordingly, we have adjusted our Bitcoin target price for the end of 2026 to $150,000, and we expect this cycle's peak to potentially reach $200,000 in 2027. Our long-term (up to 2033) target price expectation for Bitcoin remains at approximately $1,000,000."

According to Matrixport's latest weekly report, the current cryptocurrency market is in a "position vacuum" state, with the overall positions of ETH and BTC having fallen back to a low range.Analysts point out that a similar light position pattern earlier this year drove prices up by about 38% in just a few days, and any new exposure could lead to price increases exceeding expectations. The report emphasizes that Ethereum's significant upgrade has substantially changed its economic structure, but market reactions remain cautious. Data shows that since May, ETH has performed strongly, with futures open interest rapidly doubling from $8 billion to $16 billion, and about 35.8% of options traded last week were call options, indicating that traders are quietly increasing their bullish positions. However, analysts also warn that government bond-related buying is not as stable as before, and whether Ethereum can replicate the strong rally seen during the last upgrade period remains to be seen.

As Bitcoin fell below the $86,000 mark on Monday morning, on-chain wallet behavior showed divergence: large holders slowed their accumulation pace, while small retail wallets accelerated their buying. Analysts warn that this pattern often signals increased market vulnerability in the later stages of the cycle.On-chain data indicates that long-term holders and whale wallets have significantly slowed their accumulation in recent weeks, while small wallets holding less than 1 BTC are speeding up their bottom-fishing. BRN research director Timothy Misir pointed out that this divergence occurs at a delicate moment in market structure: "Whales slow down their buying while retail investors accelerate their accumulation—this is a typical late-cycle pattern that exacerbates short-term vulnerability. This morning's washout is a liquidity and position adjustment event; the market has not yet signaled a trend reversal but is showing signs of pressure." Timothy Misir added that short-term holders have realized a surge in losses during this round of selling, suggesting a "reset in sentiment." Balances on trading platforms and inflows of stablecoins indicate that the market still possesses some purchasing power, but there is also potential selling pressure in liquidity.

Singapore's crypto investment firm QCP Capital published an analysis stating that Bitcoin has stabilized after a slight rebound. This recovery seems to be related to improved risk sentiment rather than specific drivers in the crypto space, while the stock market has also seen a slight increase. The market currently expects an 85% probability of a rate cut in December. Inflation remains stubbornly high, and labor market data continues to show weakness, including rising unemployment rates.The balance of Federal Reserve officials' statements has slightly tilted towards easing. Given the lack of other important economic data this week, the market's focus will shift to the unemployment claims and ADP employment report to be released later this week. The credit default swaps (CDS) related to AI and the tech credit spreads continue to widen, indicating that investors are reassessing the driving factors dominating the macro market.Crypto ETFs continue to experience net outflows, with several digital asset products facing liquidation. Currently, most products are trading below a net asset value of $1 per unit, reflecting a heightened market aversion to risk. As Strategy's Bitcoin reserves approach the breakeven point and its stock is placed on the MSCI delisting watchlist, the issues surrounding Strategy are once again in the spotlight.As the year-end approaches, Bitcoin faces the dual impact of negative fund flows and a supportive options structure. The correlation with AI-related stocks has increased, while the fear and greed index has declined. The demand for downside protection remains high, although open interest still leans towards call options, both positions and implied volatility have decreased.If Bitcoin's price rebounds to around $95,000, it may encounter selling pressure related to ETFs, reinforcing its range-bound trend. After a significant drop recently, the $80,000 to $82,000 range remains a key support level. The crypto market continues to serve as a barometer for overall market risk appetite, with macro drivers still firmly controlling market direction.

According to Jinshi News, Andrew Taylor, head of the market intelligence team at JPMorgan, and other analysts stated that any pullback in the U.S. stock market before 2026 will be a buying opportunity. They expect the S&P 500 index to potentially break through the 7,000-point mark in the near future, which represents about a 3% upside from the current level. The reasons JPMorgan maintains a bullish outlook on U.S. stocks include strong economic growth, excellent corporate earnings performance, and the gradual fading of macro headwinds.

According to 4E observations, the cryptocurrency market experienced a sudden flash crash on Monday, with over $1.2 billion in liquidations within 24 hours, of which more than 90% were long positions. Bitcoin briefly dropped from $108,000 to $105,000, while Ethereum plummeted from $3,700 to $3,500, with both seeing liquidation amounts exceeding $100 million within an hour. The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index maintained around -$30 during the crash, indicating that U.S. investors may have been the dominant selling force.Monitoring platform "Ember" showed that an account known as the "100% Win Rate Whale" liquidated $258 million worth of BTC, ETH, and SOL long positions 8 hours ago, incurring a loss of $15.65 million, nearly wiping out all profits from the past 20 days. This account still holds approximately $148 million in long positions, with an unrealized loss of $18.86 million.CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed out that the Bitcoin "halving four-year cycle" model may no longer be applicable. His analysis indicates that the unrealized profit margin of whales is in a neutral range, mining companies are continuously expanding, ETF and MicroStrategy buying has slowed, short-term whales are nearing breakeven, while long-term whales still maintain about 53% profit. Overall on-chain data shows that the market has shifted from being cycle-driven to being driven by institutional liquidity.4E Commentary: The market flash crash reflects the fragility of high-leverage structures and the pressure from rising U.S. Treasury yields. If Bitcoin enters a "no cycle" phase, future volatility will rely more on the rhythm of institutional funds and macro liquidity signals, rather than historical experience.

According to 4E observations, the traditional volatility pattern of Bitcoin after halving may be failing. Data shows that the current Bitcoin volatility is below 2%, reaching a historic low, while during the third halving period in 2020, volatility once exceeded 5%. Keiji Maeda, an executive at Japanese crypto company BACKSEAT, pointed out that as market liquidity increases and institutional participation rises, the impact of individual investors' short-term behavior on prices diminishes, and the so-called "post-halving pullback" rule of thumb may no longer apply.On the EU front, the European Commission is planning to expand central regulation of stock and crypto asset exchanges. The new proposal will grant the European Securities and Markets Authority greater powers, covering "the most important cross-border entities" to promote the construction of a "Capital Markets Union" and reduce regulatory fragmentation. The relevant proposal is expected to be formally presented in December.On the other hand, Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor stated that the company has no plans to acquire other Bitcoin asset reserve companies, noting that such mergers and acquisitions typically involve high uncertainty and long cycles.In terms of investment institutions, the latest top 15 holdings of Cathie Wood's ARKK ETF show that crypto-related companies like Coinbase (5.8%) and Circle (2.55%) have significant weights, indicating continued bets in the new round of technology and digital asset cycles.4E Commentary: Bitcoin entering a historically low volatility range may indicate that the market structure has shifted from being speculation-driven to a stable capital state. If EU regulatory integration and institutional allocation trends progress simultaneously, crypto assets may gradually enter a "low volatility steady bull" phase.