reasons

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected in September, after keeping rates unchanged at the July meeting. Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated that three things have changed between the two meetings.He said that data released in recent weeks indicates that the U.S. economy is performing strongly, especially in the labor market. At the same time, inflation rates remained high throughout the summer, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% year-on-year inflation.Finally, he noted that geopolitical factors also prompted the Federal Reserve to change its assessment of the economic outlook, although he did not directly mention the U.S.-Iran conflict in the Middle East. Waller stated, "These three factors contributed to our firm and consistent decision today."

Former New York Fed President Dudley stated that the reasons for the Federal Reserve's current tightening of monetary policy are quite sufficient, and the interest rate hike in September may not be a "one-time action," but rather the beginning of a series of continuous rate increases. Dudley pointed out that the U.S. inflation rate remains persistently above the Fed's 2% target, the labor market remains relatively stable, and the core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in August, further dispelling market concerns about a cooling of inflation.In his view, the Federal Reserve is currently clearly deviating from its dual mandate goal regarding price stability, and there are still further upward risks for inflation in the short term. Dudley expects that the Federal Reserve may provide a median expectation of two cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points each for 2026 in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) to be released in September. He also noted that over the past few decades, the probability of the Fed raising rates again after a single hike has been as high as 85% to 90%, so the market should not view this round of actions as "a mere taste."Additionally, Dudley believes that if Waller decisively raises rates, it would also help demonstrate his determination to curb inflation and the Fed's policy independence. He warned that Waller should not "outsource" monetary policy to the financial markets, and the future path of interest rates should be determined by the Fed based on economic data and its own policy judgments, rather than catering to market expectations.

Canadian Ambassador to the United States, Mark Wiseman, stated that the Canada-U.S. trade negotiations broke down on the evening of the 22nd due to multiple issues. Wiseman noted that the written text of the potential agreement differed from the consensus that Canada believed existed, and it was not a single issue that led to the failure of the negotiations. The breakdown of the talks triggered a new round of tariff measures, which could lead to an escalation of the Canada-U.S. trade dispute.

The founder of the Liebit mining pool, Jiang Zhuoer, stated that last week, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs recorded inflows of approximately $1.92 billion and $700 million, respectively, with the inflow scale of the Ethereum ETF being about 36.4% of Bitcoin's. Meanwhile, the total market capitalization of ETH is currently about 18.8% of BTC, and its ETF inflow proportion is significantly higher than the market value ratio of the two.Jiang Zhuoer indicated that stronger relative capital inflows may be one of the factors for ETH's recent price increase outpacing BTC, with ETH's maximum increase this round being approximately 35.9%, higher than BTC's 26.6%. Additionally, as the United States promotes legislative structures for the crypto market and asset tokenization, the development of RWA may further enhance market attention on smart contract public chains.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes recently published a response to the skepticism surrounding his simultaneous bearish stance on the AI bubble while investing in AI crypto projects. Hayes stated that the so-called bubble is mainly reflected in the debt issued for building data centers, as well as the stock valuations of unprofitable hyperscale cloud vendors and cutting-edge laboratories, rather than the AI technology itself.He emphasized, "Price is what you pay, value is what you get," and expressed his 100% belief in the agentic economy. Hayes pointed out that the surplus computing power formed through borrowed funds has actually reinforced his optimistic logic regarding his project Flop Labs.

According to Jinshi reports, "Federal Reserve mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that three Federal Reserve officials who support interest rate hikes provided more reasons than most FOMC members during Wednesday's statement or press conference.Logan reiterated her view from two weeks ago that, after excluding recent shocks, underlying inflation is close to 2.5%, which she believes justifies tightening the policy stance.

Citigroup Research stated in the U.S. Economic Weekly published on July 2 that the U.S. non-farm payroll data for June showed a significant weakening, strongly refuting the necessity for interest rate hikes. Citigroup believes that several factors that previously supported a hawkish stance, including rising oil prices, accelerated wage growth, and core PCE above target, have gradually faded, stating that "the reasons for rate hikes have disappeared."Data shows that in June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 57,000 jobs, far below expectations, and the data for the previous two months was revised down by a total of 74,000 jobs. After revision, the average monthly growth of non-farm payrolls over the past three months has dropped to about 111,000, a significant decline from over 180,000 before the revision. The unemployment rate in June fell from 4.296% to 4.189%, but Citigroup believes this is mainly due to the labor participation rate dropping from 61.8% to 61.5%. If the participation rate remains unchanged, the unemployment rate would actually rise to above 4.5%.Regarding inflation, Citigroup stated that multiple factors are collectively suppressing price pressures. Oil prices have fallen back to pre-conflict levels, and July CPI and PCE data are expected to show a month-on-month decline; further slowing of housing rents will also drag down core CPI and core PCE. In addition, the revision of the core PCE methodology will adopt a more reasonable price adjustment approach for AI-related goods. Citigroup estimates that the year-on-year growth rate of the revised core PCE may be adjusted down by 20 to 30 basis points, which will be officially reflected in September.Citigroup maintains its baseline forecast, expecting the Federal Reserve to remain on hold at the FOMC meetings in July and September, with the first rate cut of 25 basis points occurring at the meeting on October 28, followed by another 25 basis points cut in December, bringing the federal funds rate range down to 3.0% to 3.25% by the end of the year. Citigroup also expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates three more times in 2027, with a terminal rate range of 2.75% to 3.0%.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve officials hinted that they may need to raise interest rates soon rather than cut them, especially in the context of rapidly rising inflation. Evercore ISI analyst Krishna Guha stated that a decline in energy prices could provide relief, but the interest rate outlook has decoupled from oil prices, and there remains uncertainty about whether underlying inflation will cool. Claudia Sam, chief economist at New Century Advisors, pointed out that the conditions to prompt the Federal Reserve to respond to supply-driven inflation have not yet emerged, but she acknowledged that the reasons for taking action are accumulating.

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold an online debate today at 20:00 (UTC+8) themed "U.S. stocks hitting new highs, yet BTC falls below 60,000: Behind the divergence, is it a narrative switch or capital abandonment?" At that time, Shiziyang, Jiao Yi Yuan 527, Shier, and Dr. Dinosaur will represent the affirmative side in dialogue with the negative side representatives Qibo Qian, Block Research, Panda, and Fang Wai Zhi Yu. Both sides will delve into the phenomenon of divergence between the current U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market, exploring popular topics such as market capital flow, the evolution of macro narratives, and future opportunities for Bitcoin, providing investors with a multi-dimensional market observation perspective.

European Central Bank Governing Council member Wunsch stated that a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran reached before next week's European Central Bank meeting would not weaken the rationale for interest rate hikes. Wunsch said, "If a peace agreement is indeed reached on the eve of the meeting, it will become part of the discussion.But we cannot know if it is lasting or credible." He hinted at supporting a 25 basis point rate hike by the European Central Bank. He believes that if the conflict remains unresolved, discussions among policymakers before setting rates on June 11 "will be quite easy." If a peace agreement is reached between the U.S. and Iran, the discussions "may be slightly less easy. But the rationale for a rate hike may still exist, just not as strong." He stated, "At some point, we cannot let the market bear everything. We need to take a stand."

According to Jinshi reports, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Green stated that the reasons for raising the key interest rate are strengthening.

Strategy CEO Phong Le stated in an interview with Fox Business that the company purchased $1.6 billion in Bitcoin during the second week of May, which is more than the total holdings of most Bitcoin treasury companies in a week.Phong Le mentioned that the current Bitcoin price is attractive, and the company will continue to buy Bitcoin. Although there may be short-term sales of some Bitcoin due to reasons such as utilizing unrealized tax losses, the long-term strategy is to continuously net increase Bitcoin holdings and focus on enhancing the number of Bitcoin per share.He views Bitcoin as "digital capital," believing it is superior to traditional stocks, bonds, and gold, and emphasized that the company will pass Bitcoin earnings to shareholders, similar to the operating model of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs).

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman published five operational principles under his personal signature and stated that in certain future periods, user access to model capabilities may be tightened for safety considerations, in order to strike a balance between empowerment and system resilience.Altman stated that key AI decisions should be driven by democratic processes and should not be determined solely by laboratories. He defended OpenAI's increased investment in computing power, the construction of data centers, and vertical integration strategies. He also mentioned potential challenges such as strong models possibly lowering the biological risk threshold, and reiterated OpenAI's continued iterative deployment strategy.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that several officials stated that the oil shock could lead to further inflation, providing a reason to raise interest rates.

The infrastructure developer behind Optimism, OP Labs, announced the layoff of 20 employees, accounting for approximately 19.6% of the total team. Jing Wang, co-founder of Optimism and CEO of OP Labs, stated in an internal letter that the layoffs are not due to financial pressure, as the company currently has sufficient funds and years of cash flow reserves. This move aims to "streamline operations, accelerate decision-making, and reduce collaboration costs."Currently, Optimism is undergoing a transformation. Last month, Base, the largest chain in the OP Stack ecosystem, announced a shift to a self-developed unified tech stack, which raised market concerns about Optimism's long-term sustainability, leading to a roughly 37% drop in the price of OP tokens over the past 30 days. Despite the challenges, OP Labs has established a roadmap for 2026, focusing on faster block times, native interoperability, custom compliance controls, and a zero-knowledge proof (ZK Proof) system aligned with the Ethereum roadmap. Additionally, OP token holders had previously voted to allocate 50% of Superchain sequencer revenue for token buybacks.

According to official social media news, the decentralized contract trading platform SunX will hold a live stream today at 20:00 (UTC+8) titled "Gold and Silver Reach New Historical Highs | Is This a Flight to Safety or a New Round of Asset Pricing Reconstruction?" At that time, prominent crypto KOLs such as Big Brother, Xiao Zhi, Cong Ge, and Xihe will be invited to discuss the macro background of the recent historical highs in gold and silver prices, focusing on analyzing the risk-hedging logic behind the strength of precious metals, inflation expectations, and changes in liquidity. They will also further compare the pricing differences between gold, silver, and risk assets like Bitcoin in the current cycle.

Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital) founder Yi Lihua expressed on social media:"The community is confused. Trend Research is buying heavily, BMNR and MicroStrategy are buying, Zhao Changpeng is calling for a super bull market cycle, yet the coin prices remain weak and volatile. What is the reason for this? After all, the stock market and gold/silver are skyrocketing. We see several main reasons including:Four-year cycle and the 1011 crashYen interest rate hikesNo new purchases in the U.S. BTC strategic reservesShort sellers taking advantage of the current situation to drive prices downSafe-haven funds in gold, silver, and the stock marketHowever, analyzing from a contrarian perspective, at a time when so many bearish factors are present, ETH remains stable, oscillating around 3000. This is also the reason we decided to build positions after liquidating at 4500. Many people suggested we wait to buy, as there would be better entry points, but investment trading does not have a god's eye view; it is difficult to know what the lowest point will be. The difference between investment and speculation is that we find it hard to engage in short-term trading; even if we have significant unrealized gains, we remain inactive, setting our buy and sell strategies based on a medium to long-term timeline."