resistance

According to CoinDesk, Bitfinex's Bitcoin leveraged long positions have risen to 80,636 BTC, the highest level since December 2023. Although BTC has fallen about 13% this year, with the current price around $77,000, Bitfinex longs have still increased by about 10% since the beginning of the year, indicating that leveraged funds continue to accumulate during price corrections.The article states that over the past five years, so-called "Bitfinex whales" have often increased their positions during market weakness and emotional capitulation, and reduced their positions before local tops and trend reversals. Currently, BTC is testing resistance around the True Market Mean and the cost basis of short-term holders at approximately $78,000, with its 200-day moving average above $81,000, forming a key technical range that bulls need to break through.

Analyst Axel Adler Jr posted on the X platform that Bitcoin was rejected again at $82,000, marking the third failure at this level. The short-term holder SOPR indicator has still not managed to stay above 1, indicating that short-term holders continue to sell during each rebound. Currently, crude oil is close to $106, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped by 537 points, and interest rates face the risk of remaining high for a long time.

According to Cointelegraph, CryptoQuant pointed out in a report that Bitcoin faces a risk of correction after reaching the 200-day moving average of $82,400. The agency stated that the 200-day moving average was a major resistance level during the 2022 bear market, and Bitcoin resumed its downward trend after hitting that level in March of that year.The report noted that traders' unrealized profit margin reached 17.7% on May 5, the highest level since June of last year, indicating potential selling pressure from profit-taking. Last week, daily realized profits surged to the highest level since early December, with traders cashing out 14,600 Bitcoins (worth nearly $1.2 billion) on May 4. CryptoQuant stated that such a peak magnitude often signals a local price top during a bear market rebound.If Bitcoin declines, the current support level is around $70,000, which is the average price of all Bitcoin's last trades and has historically been a key resistance turning into support during bear markets.

According to QCP Capital analysis, BTC is currently consolidating around $82,000, close to the 200-day moving average, with $80,000 support holding steady, but the $84,000 resistance above has not yet been broken. The core CPI for April year-on-year is 2.8%, slightly above expectations, mainly driven by housing costs (owner's equivalent rent), while core goods inflation remains sluggish, and the transmission of tariffs has not yet fully spread.Core services (excluding housing) inflation has accelerated for three consecutive months, combined with China's PPI turning positive for the first time in 41 months, the global commodity deflation dividend may be fading, and the threshold for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has been raised further. The market is currently focused on three major catalysts: the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing (involving trade, rare earths, and Middle East issues), the release of PPI data, and the Senate Banking Committee's review process of the CLARITY cryptocurrency regulatory bill. Before these catalysts materialize, spot prices may continue to fluctuate within a range, with volatility remaining low.

According to CoinDesk, the cryptocurrency market has temporarily stalled before the release of the U.S. April CPI data. Bitcoin has recently been oscillating in the range of $80,000 to $82,000, failing to effectively break through since last Wednesday.The market believes that although capital flows still indicate a potential for a subsequent breakthrough, inflation and macro risks are suppressing risk appetite. The U.S. will release the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 PM Beijing time tonight. FactSet data shows that the market expects the April CPI to rise year-on-year to 3.7%, up from 3.3% in March. If the forecast is realized, it will mark the largest increase since January 2024 and is significantly higher than the average of 2.7% over the past 12 months. The core CPI is expected to rise year-on-year to 2.7%, up from the previous value of 2.6%.Analysts are concerned that if the inflation data exceeds expectations against the backdrop of high oil prices and Trump's statement that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is "extremely fragile," it may further trigger market risk aversion, dragging down the performance of risk assets.Lukman Otunuga, head of market research at FXTM, stated that the current market is entering a sensitive phase where geopolitical issues, inflation risks, and central bank expectations are intertwined. High oil prices, uncertainty regarding the situation in Iran, and key U.S. economic data may lead to increased volatility in commodities, exchange rates, and global stock markets.In addition to macro factors, XRP and SOL are also approaching key supply zones again. XRP tested $1.50 today but has failed to break through this level multiple times since February of this year; SOL is once again nearing the resistance level around $97.Meanwhile, institutional interest in related assets is heating up. The U.S. spot XRP ETF recorded a net inflow of $25.8 million on Monday, reaching a new high since January 5; Bitcoin and Solana ETFs also maintained net inflows, while the Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of $16.9 million.

Glassnode's latest report indicates that Bitcoin has broken through the real market average ($78,200) and the cost price for short-term holders ($79,100). If it can maintain this range for the next week, the "deep value phase" since 2026 may become the shortest in Bitcoin's history.The next key resistance level in the current market is around $85,200. On-chain data shows that the 30-day net realized profit and loss average has turned positive to 0.003% of the market cap, and long-term holders have realized profits rising to $180 million daily, but this is still significantly lower than the over $1 billion level during the peak of this cycle.However, the market has realized losses still amounting to $479 million daily, which is 140% higher than the stable range of this cycle. Glassnode believes that it needs to continuously fall below $200 million to confirm a healthier demand recovery.In terms of capital, the 30-day net inflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has turned positive again, indicating that institutional demand is recovering. At the same time, the perpetual contract funding rate remains negative during the upward process, suggesting that market short positions are still heavy. If shorts continue to be squeezed, it may further drive prices up.Additionally, there is a concentration of about $2 billion in "Short Gamma" positions around $82,000, and market makers' hedging behavior may amplify price volatility. Glassnode believes that the overall trend for Bitcoin remains strong, but the market has entered a more sensitive phase. If there is a lack of sustained spot buying support, there may be significant selling pressure around $85,000.

According to Cointelegraph, on-chain indicators such as the cost basis of short-term holders (STH) show that the BTC price still has room to rise, with the next key target at $92,000. This rebound has pushed Bitcoin above its short-term holder cost basis, which is currently at $79,000. The short-term holder cost basis refers to the average purchase price of investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days.Historically, breaking through this level has pushed the market into an extended recovery phase, incentivizing investors to hold or even increase their positions to maximize returns. This shift is often a catalyst that ignites a macro uptrend, attracting new buyers and triggering short squeezes, while shorts remain in a state of disbelief.Charts show that when the price recovers its realized price in April 2025, it rises 30% within weeks, heading towards the upper boundary of the indicator at $112,000. Similar situations in October 2024, October 2023, and January 2023 also pushed BTC prices to the same on-chain level. If BTC breaks this line, there is a high probability it will rise to $92,423 in the short term

According to FinanceFeeds, analysts pointed out that Ethereum (ETH) has recently rebounded from the support level of $2200, which coincides with the resistance level before the end of March, the lower band of the daily Bollinger Bands, and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward impulse wave i. The current price is approaching the key resistance level of $2470 (which is the endpoint of the previous upward impulse wave i).The report noted that, given the active wave (iii) and the strong momentum of wave 3, as well as the overall bullish sentiment in the crypto market, if ETH breaks through the $2470 resistance level, it is expected to rise to the next resistance level of $2600.

Crypto analyst Murphy stated that BTC is filling the gap left in its chip structure since 2024, with the recent chip concentration zone located around $78,000, where approximately 423,000 BTC have changed hands, indicating significant capital entering to form support.He pointed out that the trading volume in the $79,000 to $80,000 range has noticeably decreased, possibly due to proximity to integer levels and resistance, with some capital choosing to wait and see. There remains an unfilled chip gap in the $81,000 to $82,000 range, and it is expected that the price will oscillate and consolidate in this range before challenging higher areas once the chips have fully changed hands.Murphy emphasized that the chip concentration in the $83,000 to $84,000 range mainly stems from Coinbase organizing wallets and does not constitute real resistance. If BTC stabilizes above $82,000, the real pressure above will come from the chip concentration zone above $87,000.

According to The Block, Bitcoin has broken through the $80,000 mark, rising approximately 2.6% in 24 hours to $80,150, driving the overall strength of the cryptocurrency market, with ETH up 3.6% and XRP up 2%.Nick Ruck, a director at LVRG Research, stated that this breakthrough has broken through the key resistance zone that suppressed prices over the weekend, with short-term momentum clearly strengthening; Zeus Research analyst Dominick John pointed out that the upward trend is accompanied by technical short squeezes.In terms of capital flow, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has seen net inflows for the fifth consecutive week, attracting about $154 million last week, indicating that institutional allocation demand continues to strengthen. Analysts believe that if the trend of capital inflows continues and is compounded by macro uncertainty factors, Bitcoin may maintain strong fluctuations in the short term, with the market focusing on the impact of subsequent economic data and changes in risk sentiment on the trend.

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez stated that as May begins, Bitcoin is still oscillating within a narrow range, while order clusters at key price levels are forming, which may become the core area for large-scale liquidations.Upper resistance: $80,000. This position serves as a major psychological and technical resistance, gathering a large amount of short liquidity. If broken, it may trigger a short squeeze, pushing the price quickly up to $84,000. Lower support: If $80,000 fails to break, the lower liquidity range includes $75,000, $73,000, and $70,000, which may support a pullback. He pointed out that the current market is in a tug-of-war phase between bulls and bears, and if the price effectively breaks through the $75,000 to $80,000 range on a daily basis, it may determine the overall trend for the month.

According to crypto analyst Darkfost, the 30-day moving average of the Bitcoin short-term holder (STH) SOPR has turned positive for the first time in the past six months, indicating that STHs are on average at breakeven or slightly profitable.Historical data shows that this situation often acts as a resistance level during bear markets, as holders may flee due to a lack of confidence.

Bitcoin fluctuated around $76,000 on Thursday. After the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, market focus quickly shifted to internal policy divisions and macro uncertainties. Analysts pointed out that Bitcoin remains suppressed below the key resistance range of $78,000 to $79,000, lacking breakthrough momentum in the short term.Kraken's chief economist Thomas Perfumo stated that the current market is more concerned about the policy uncertainties brought about by the "division" within the Federal Reserve rather than the inaction itself, especially against the backdrop of Chairman Jerome Powell's continued tenure alongside expectations of Kevin Warsh potentially taking over, leading to a lack of clear policy transition. Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin is still "trapped" below the True Market Mean, with resistance concentrated in the $78,000 to $79,000 range and support located between $65,000 and $70,000.Although selling pressure has eased, demand is insufficient to support a sustained upward breakthrough. On the macro level, the Federal Reserve has rarely shown severe divisions, which the market interprets as an increase in uncertainty regarding the inflation path. Institutions such as Bitget Wallet and 21Shares pointed out that expectations of "maintaining high interest rates for a longer term" are suppressing the performance of risk assets, leading the crypto market into a wait-and-see phase.In terms of capital flows, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive days, with approximately $138 million flowing out on April 29 alone; Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of about $87.7 million during the same period. Although some individual products still have inflows, the overall trend indicates that institutional demand is cooling.Meanwhile, while CME positions and ETF assets under management have stabilized, there has not yet been a strong signal of capital returning. The derivatives market shows that short positions in perpetual contracts have reached historical highs; if sentiment improves, it may trigger a short squeeze, but the current market remains characterized by low volatility and low confidence. Overall, Bitcoin is caught between an improving support structure and weak demand, with continuous ETF outflows, policy uncertainty, and macro risks collectively suppressing its breakthrough of key resistance levels.

Bitcoin fell below $76,000 after failing to break through $80,000, with uncertainties surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the macroeconomic situation unsettling the market.Meanwhile, technical indicators and on-chain data provide mixed signals regarding whether BTC can sustain this round of rebound. Bitcoin recorded a 30% recovery after hitting a low below $60,000 on February 6, but it stalled under selling pressure in the supply zone between $78,000 and $80,000. This range also coincides with the current 20-week exponential moving average (EMA), reinforcing the significance of this resistance level.Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, stated that the current pullback is "typical behavior" ahead of the FOMC meeting. He added, "I believe we are still in a phase of strong market conditions." On the support side, Bitcoin has tested the support level at $75,500, which also serves as the lower boundary of the 20-day EMA, 100-day EMA, and an upward channel.Glassnode's UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data shows that direct resistance is around $78,000, where investors hold 335,650 BTC; the average purchase price of about 298,560 BTC is $75,500, forming a key support level.On the on-chain front, Glassnode data indicates that the Bitcoin market exhibits "a coexistence of bullish momentum and cautious sentiment." The spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) rose from $18.3 million to $54.8 million, with an increase of nearly 200% over the past week, reflecting strong bullish sentiment among market participants. However, spot trading volume decreased by 13.8% from $6.95 billion a week ago to $5.99 billion, "indicating a reduction in market activity." During the same period, the number of daily active addresses fell by 1.6%, showing a more subdued network participation.

According to The Block, cryptocurrency mining company MARA's CEO Peter Thiel announced the establishment of a nonprofit organization, the MARA Foundation, dedicated to the long-term health, resilience, and adoption of the Bitcoin protocol. The foundation will support the development of anti-quantum tools (such as PQ wallets and the BIP 360 proposal), believing that while quantum computing is not an immediate threat to Bitcoin, network upgrades take time, and early preparation is crucial.The foundation will also allocate resources to ensure Bitcoin's security budget, support the development of a robust and healthy Bitcoin transaction fee market, and launch a global multilingual education program, expand access to self-custody tools, and engage in advocacy work aimed at policymakers and activists.

Crypto analyst Murphy posted on the X platform, stating that by overlaying three sets of data (Options Gamma Exposure, Options Open Interest by Strike Price, Options ATM Implied Volatility), the impact on BTC from an options perspective shows that $80,000 is currently the first effective resistance above BTC. This position simultaneously has high Call OI, positive Gamma, and low IV conditions.As the price moves upward, the dynamic hedging of market makers can easily create selling pressure; the lower the IV, the higher the marginal sensitivity of market makers to hedge adjustments. Therefore, the thickness of this wall (OI of 7,200 BTC + positive Gamma magnitude) makes $80,000 a "hard nut to crack" in May. Once it breaks through and approaches $82,000, due to the presence of a larger scale of negative Gamma (OI of 4,644 BTC), the market may quickly switch from being suppressed to "amplified volatility" mode.

CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ tweeted that if Bitcoin can rise above and hold the $80,000 mark, this position will turn from resistance to support; conversely, if it encounters rejection and falls back, it will confirm $80,000 as a significant selling pressure area, potentially extending the adjustment period into the second quarter.Currently, the realized price for BTC ETF investors is about $76,400, which is close to the spot price (around $76,300), marking the first time since January 30 that it has approached the breakeven point; short-term holder whales have a realized price around $79,600 and are currently facing an unrealized loss of about $9.4 billion.MorenoDV_ pointed out that historically, when these trapped funds are finally released, it often triggers significant selling pressure. Bitcoin is currently fluctuating in the $76,000-$80,000 range, where $80,000 is not only an important psychological level but also a common breakeven and release threshold for these two major groups.

According to Cointelegraph, the monthly Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin have reached the tightest level in history, with technical signals indicating that the market may experience significant volatility.The report points out that for Bitcoin to further open up upward space, it must first break through the resistance around $80,000. Meanwhile, the monthly RSI for Bitcoin has dropped to a low not seen since the end of 2022 and has once again touched a multi-year support trend line.Market data shows that there is strong selling pressure in the $78,000 to $80,000 range; if it stands above the resistance zone of $76,000 to $78,000, the price may further test $84,000.

Ripple officially announced its quantum resistance roadmap, with the core goal of making the XRP Ledger (XRPL) quantum-resistant by 2028. The roadmap primarily addresses the potential attack mode of "harvest now, decrypt later," where attackers collect encrypted data now and wait for future quantum computers to mature before cracking it.The entire plan will be implemented in four phases:Phase 1: Q-Day Emergency Preparedness (Already Started). Establish a Q-Day emergency response mechanism. If the existing classical encryption system is suddenly compromised, the network will immediately stop accepting traditional public key signatures, forcing a migration to quantum-safe accounts. At the same time, explore asset ownership verification solutions based on Post-Quantum ZK-proofs, allowing existing account holders to safely recover funds in emergencies without exposing vulnerable keys.Phase 2: Risk Assessment and Algorithm Testing (First Half of 2026). Conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impact of post-quantum cryptography on the performance, storage, and bandwidth of the XRP Ledger network. Collaborate with Project Eleven to conduct validator-level testing and Devnet benchmarking, deploy NIST standardized ML-DSA quantum-safe signature schemes, and develop prototypes for post-quantum custodial wallets. Core engineer Denis Angell has already deployed ML-DSA signatures on XRPL's AlphaNet.Phase 3: Devnet Hybrid Integration (Second Half of 2026). Parallel integration of candidate post-quantum signature schemes with existing elliptic curve signatures on the developer network (Devnet), allowing developers to test performance and system impacts without affecting the mainnet. At the same time, explore post-quantum zero-knowledge proof primitives and homomorphic encryption technologies for Confidential Transfers to enhance the privacy and compliance capabilities of tokenized real-world assets on XRPL.Phase 4: Full Mainnet Upgrade (Target 2028). Submit a formal protocol amendment, which will be fully enabled on the mainnet after being approved by validator votes, to implement native post-quantum cryptography. Focus on production-ready optimization: throughput tuning, validator reliability assurance, and coordinated migration of the ecosystem, ensuring a complete transition without affecting network speed and settlement finality.

Blockstream CEO Adam Back stated that Bitcoin should adopt an optional quantum-resistant upgrade scheme, rather than the mandatory freezing of tokens at risk from quantum threats proposed in BIP-361.The BIP-361 proposal suggests phasing out addresses vulnerable to quantum attacks over five years and ultimately freezing un-migrated tokens, including assets held by Satoshi Nakamoto. Google's latest research indicates that a superconducting qubit system may need fewer than 500,000 physical qubits to crack Bitcoin encryption in just a few minutes. Currently, about 6.9 million BTC are at risk from such threats. In response to the quantum threat, BitMEX Research proposed establishing a canary fund that would implement a full freeze only when expenditures occur from the relevant addresses.