signals

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a live broadcast today at 20:00 (UTC+8) on the theme "ETF Continuous Outflow, Bitcoin Decoupling from US Stocks ------ Are Institutions Running or Waiting?" At that time, crypto KOLs such as Sasaki Hoshino, Sevth7, Kid, and Grace will engage in an in-depth discussion around recent continuous outflows of Bitcoin ETF funds, the decreasing correlation between BTC and US stocks, and changes in institutional capital allocation logic, jointly analyzing current market sentiment and capital flows, and exploring the future direction of the crypto market.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has fallen from $82,000 to $76,800, a decline of about 6%, but market data suggests that this drop may be an unconventional correction. Three signals behind this round of decline indicate market concerns about further price drops. First, ETF fund outflows are accelerating: since May 7, over $1.5 billion has flowed out of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, with a single-day outflow of $648 million on Monday, the highest since January 29.Secondly, aggressive selling has occurred in both the spot and futures markets: Glassnode data shows that the cumulative volume difference in the spot market has dropped from $16,900,000 to -$126,200,000, while the cumulative volume difference in perpetual contracts has fallen to -$368,500,000, indicating that sellers are actively selling in both the spot and futures markets. Additionally, hedging demand is rising: Glassnode analysts state that the 25-Delta skew of options has increased from 10.9% to 14.4%, indicating that options market participants believe the downside risk is increasing.Vikram Subburaj, CEO of the Indian exchange Giottus, stated that the first support level is around $76,000, followed by the $74,000-$75,000 range. If this range is broken, it could trigger a deeper correction.

Binance Research released a chart analysis this week indicating that four on-chain signals point to the same conclusion: supply is tightening, and selling pressure has been exhausted.Long-term dormancy: Nearly 60% of BTC supply has not moved for over a year, significantly higher than 27% in 2012. The dormancy rate peaked at 69.5% when the spot Bitcoin ETF was approved in January 2024 and has since remained close to historical highs.SLRV indicator: The short-term to long-term holder value ratio is deeply entrenched in historical bottom territory, indicating a lack of market sentiment. Long-term holders dominate the supply, while short-term speculators have largely exited. Historically, every cycle bottom has been accompanied by this ratio entering the current region.Exchange balances: Since peaking at 17.6% during the pandemic, exchange balances have dropped to 15%, with approximately 500,000 BTC permanently leaving exchanges, and seller supply has fallen to a six-year low.STH MVRV indicator: Since November 2024, the BTC short-term holder MVRV has mostly remained below 1, gradually exhausting selling pressure. Currently, this ratio has rebounded to 1, and short-term holders are beginning to reaccumulate unrealized gains. As profit accumulation is still in its early stages, a new wave of selling pressure is unlikely to emerge immediately; historically, this pattern often appears before a sustained recovery.

Analyst Murphy has released a bearish signal analysis for Bitcoin at a small scale. Currently, the CVD of Binance perpetual contracts has rapidly declined from the April high and has fallen below the 90-day median. This indicates that market bulls are unwilling to continue chasing higher prices, and bears are starting to actively sell short. The spot CVD has also begun to "peak and turn down." Historically, when this indicator turns, prices often follow with a correction, similar to November 2024 and April 2025. However, the key difference in the current market compared to the past is that the BTC CVD indicator on Coinbase remains steadily above the 90-day median line.During the same period, the 30-day net purchases of Bitcoin spot ETFs have not shown a significant decrease, and funds in the U.S. market are still supporting it. Analysts state that shorting in the short term remains a high-risk behavior, and bears still need to wait for bearish sentiment to dominate on Binance, as well as for U.S. investors' spot buying to gradually withdraw.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Harker stated that the Federal Reserve's signal regarding the next action being a rate cut is misleading.

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, posted on the X platform stating that Bitcoin has currently surpassed the 7-day and 30-day moving averages, with both short-term and medium-term trends remaining bullish. In the past week, it has risen by 1.1%. Continuous buying by institutions and large enterprises increasing their Bitcoin holdings has further boosted market confidence. However, influenced by the historical pattern of "selling upon good news," the market subsequently experienced a brief consolidation.Markus Thielen's analysis suggests that with Bitcoin's dominance maintaining above 60%, some altcoins are quietly bottoming out under fundamental catalysts, particularly privacy coins and RWA infrastructure-related projects that are worth paying close attention to. Additionally, the White House advisor's hints at upcoming announcements regarding national strategic reserves and other market news are reinforcing bullish sentiment.

According to market news, the U.S. PCE inflation data is about to be released, combined with rising international oil prices and climbing U.S. Treasury yields, which continue to suppress the performance of risk assets. Currently, Bitcoin is facing significant resistance around the $80,000 mark, while the derivatives market continues to signal risk aversion.Analysis indicates that the cost basis for short-term holders is concentrated around $80,000. If the price breaks through this level, it may trigger profit-taking selling pressure, thereby limiting further upside potential. In addition, Bitwise researcher Luke Deans pointed out that the current 180-day correlation and Beta quantile of altcoins with Bitcoin are close to 97% and 99%, respectively, indicating that most tokens will still behave as "high-leverage versions of Bitcoin."

According to The Block, Bitcoin maintained a volatile consolidation above $77,000 on Wednesday, with the market adopting a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. This FOMC meeting is seen as a critical juncture, with the market generally expecting interest rates to remain unchanged, but the real focus is whether Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will signal a "higher-for-longer" hawkish stance. Additionally, this meeting may also be his last as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, with the market pricing in uncertainties regarding policy and potential power transition.Overall, Bitcoin remains in a "low liquidity + high event risk" structure, and is likely to oscillate within the $72,000 to $80,000 range in the short term, awaiting further clarity on the Federal Reserve's policy path.

Famous trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt, who successfully predicted the Bitcoin crash in 2018, released a chart yesterday indicating that Bitcoin enthusiasts should abandon the idea of the price soaring to $250,000 this year.Brandt believes that the current BTC trend is a channel pattern, rather than a bullish bottom reversal pattern. This pattern does not rule out further increases, but it lacks strong bottom signals.

According to CoinDesk, Fidelity Digital Assets released the "Q2 2026 Signal Report," indicating that although the overall cryptocurrency market was in a consolidation phase at the beginning of the second quarter, several underlying data points have shown signs of stabilization.The report shows that Bitcoin's dominance continues to rise, with capital consistently concentrating on the most liquid assets. The levels of unrealized profits and momentum indicators are consistent with characteristics of a correction period, which may lay the foundation for a more stable market structure in the future.Meanwhile, the network usage and price trends of Ethereum and Solana have diverged, indicating that demand at the protocol layer remains robust. The report also notes that Bitcoin futures are currently experiencing negative funding rates, and research institution 10x believes this reflects structural hedging behavior by institutions rather than an overall bearish signal.

VanEck analysts Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush wrote an analysis stating that Bitcoin has shown two historically bullish signals: negative funding rates and a decline in hash rate concentration, while volatility has cooled down.As tensions between the U.S. and Iran eased, Bitcoin's realized volatility dropped from 56% to 41%, while the 7-day average funding rate turned negative to -1.8%, marking the lowest level since 2023.Historically, negative funding rates typically indicate strong future returns: since 2020, the average 30-day return for Bitcoin during periods of negative funding rates has been +11.5%, compared to an overall return of +4.5%, with a hit rate as high as 77%. Funding rates below -5% have brought a +19.4% return over a 30-day period.Additionally, hash rate has fallen to the 16th percentile in the past 30 days, marking the most concentrated decline since the mining ban in 2021. In the last 7 instances of hash rate decline, Bitcoin's price increased 6 times after 90 days, with a median increase of +37.7%.

Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin is currently showing bullish signals, with its Vector framework triggering a clear signal. Among them, a momentum indicator above 0.5 is considered bullish, while below -0.5 is considered bearish, and the current value is 1; meanwhile, the risk index has completely reset to 0.Glassnode states that from the blue shaded area in the chart, it can be seen that after this signal is triggered, the price has historically corresponded to significant upward trends and provided avoidance references during market downturns.

Crypto market analyst Axel posted on social media that the BTC futures market saw a daily liquidation of approximately $526 million in shorts, and the open interest (OI) did not rebuild leverage after reaching a peak of 319,499 BTC, instead falling back to 293,045 BTC.The liquidation dominance indicator has turned positive after being in negative territory for two consecutive weeks, indicating the end of the systemic short squeeze phase. The current price remains stable in the range of 75,000-76,000 while OI contracts, forming a constructive structure of "cooling after a short squeeze," rather than a new round of overheating. The next focus will be whether OI will return above 300,000 BTC when the price attempts to break through.