suggests

After experiencing a significant sell-off last week, an important on-chain metric for Bitcoin—MVRV Z-Score—is approaching the historical bear market bottom region, indicating that market prices are gradually aligning with on-chain realized value, and the worst phase of the decline may be nearing its end. Data shows that the current Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score is 0.24, close to the zero axis, which is historically regarded as the "green accumulation zone." During past bear markets in 2011-2012, 2014, 2018, and 2022, this metric bottomed out near zero or briefly dipped below zero before starting a new upward cycle.The MVRV Z-Score measures the deviation between Bitcoin's current market value and its realized value. When market prices are significantly above the realized value, it indicates that Bitcoin is relatively expensive; conversely, when prices are close to or below the realized value, it suggests that the market has entered an undervalued area. However, analysts believe that the market may not have formed an absolute bottom yet. On-chain data shows that the short-term holder MVRV (STH-MVRV) is currently at 0.84, while the long-term holder MVRV (LTH-MVRV) remains as high as 1.29, and neither has converged like during the bear market bottoms of 2015, 2019, and 2022. This indicates that long-term holders still retain significant unrealized profits, and the market may still need to undergo further adjustments to form a typical bear market bottom.However, after the cryptocurrency market evaporated hundreds of billions in market value last week, several historical signals indicating market recovery have begun to emerge.

According to TASS, the Deputy Minister of Energy of Russia stated that the government committee recommends banning cryptocurrency mining in certain areas of the Moscow and Kursk regions, with the ban effective until 2032.

According to The Block, analysts at research firm Bernstein stated in their latest report that the fundamentals of the crypto market are continuously improving. The recent low of $60,000 for Bitcoin has formed a clear bottom, and the current price is approaching $80,000. Driven by institutional demand, a longer structural bull market is expected.Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani pointed out the following core driving factors:Institutional channels continue to expand: Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF and Charles Schwab's spot Bitcoin/Ethereum trading platform have been launched one after another, with about 60% of Bitcoin supply not having moved for over a year, indicating a stable holder structure;Strategy continues to increase holdings: its STRC perpetual preferred stock product attracts income-focused investors, with current holdings reaching 818,334 Bitcoins;Demand for stablecoins reaches an all-time high: stablecoin supply has surpassed $30 billion, decoupling from the price cycle of the crypto market, showing that real payment and settlement demand continues to grow;Tokenization of real assets accelerates expansion: the scale of tokenized assets such as private credit and government bonds has reached $345 billion, a year-on-year increase of 110%.Bernstein also noted that quantum computing poses a long-term potential risk, but the blockchain ecosystem is expected to have ample time to complete the post-quantum security transition.

According to Jinshi reports, Trump stated that the Secret Service and law enforcement did an excellent job. They responded quickly and bravely. The shooter has been apprehended, and I suggest we "continue with the speech," but will fully comply with law enforcement's instructions. They (the dinner staff) will make a decision soon. Whatever that decision is, tonight's event will be very different from the plan, and we will have to do it again.

According to market news, Cypherpunk Jameson Lopp and several experts in the field of Bitcoin quantum security have proposed Bitcoin Improvement Proposal BIP-361, which suggests freezing quantum-vulnerable addresses, including Satoshi Nakamoto's reserves, to prevent future quantum computers from stealing approximately 1.7 million Bitcoins.The proposal is to be implemented in three phases: first, prohibiting transfers to legacy addresses; second, invalidating legacy signatures and freezing untransferred assets after five years; and finally, allowing some users to recover frozen funds through a zero-knowledge proof mechanism. This proposal aims to promote the migration of the entire network to quantum-resistant addresses, but it has faced opposition from some community members who believe it contradicts the decentralized ethos of Bitcoin and has a predatory nature.

According to Cointelegraph, Nikita Bier, the head of X products, previously hinted at the launch of a product related to "fixing the crypto industry," sparking widespread attention and speculation in the market. The market generally believes that this crypto product may be related to its financial ecosystem layout, expected to involve the upcoming payment and digital wallet product X Money, potentially covering various integration directions such as Bitcoin payment integration, Solana ecosystem collaboration, stablecoin applications, and prediction markets. As of now, X has not made any official response regarding the related plans.Musk previously stated that the early public access version of X Money will be launched in April.

The Bank of Korea stated that after the mispayment incident at Bithumb, careful consideration should be given to introducing a "circuit breaker" mechanism in the cryptocurrency market similar to that in traditional financial markets, to address extreme market volatility and systemic risks.The Bank of Korea pointed out that as the scale of the cryptocurrency market expands and related risks increase, existing regulatory measures are insufficient to fully cover potential issues. Therefore, it is necessary to study the introduction of protective mechanisms that can automatically interrupt trading to enhance market stability and investor protection. Previously, Bithumb experienced abnormal payments of some users' assets due to a system failure, which attracted market attention.

According to Theblock, K33 research director Vetle Lunde pointed out that in recent weeks, the price of Bitcoin has mainly fluctuated between $60,000 and $75,000, indicating that the trading volume of exchange-traded products and the behavior of long-term holders are stabilizing. He described this price trend as "typically associated with market bottoms" and suggested that the price range just above $70,000 may be attractive to medium- to long-term investors.According to Lunde, since late February, the capital flow of Bitcoin ETFs has slightly turned positive, indicating that the sell-off wave since the historical high in October may be coming to an end. He stated that the previous capital outflow was due to profit-taking when the Bitcoin price fell below the investors' cost price, creating a supply-demand feedback loop. However, as prices fell, the motivation to sell weakened, and demand began to stabilize.

According to Jinshi reports, "Bond King" Gundlach stated that the two-year U.S. Treasury yield suggests that a rate hike by the Federal Reserve is imminent.

Hester M. Peirce, a commissioner of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, stated that a research initiative for a "regulatory exemption" for tokenized securities has been launched, allowing limited trading and technical experimentation for certain tokenized securities. This exemption plan will be more cautious than the "comprehensive exemption" proposed by the industry.She believes it is worth exploring whether different types of tokenization models for securities can be tested under the innovation exemption framework and whether issuer consent is needed for third parties to issue tokenized versions of their stocks, in order to promote technological innovation while avoiding regulatory arbitrage and maintaining core investor protection mechanisms.Hester M. Peirce also emphasized that regulators should not overly interfere with private capital allocation. The SEC is currently assessing several key issues, including: whether the existing information disclosure system is sufficient to cover the ownership structure of tokenized securities, the disclosure obligations of brokers and clearing agencies in the issuance of tokenized securities, the compatibility of atomic settlement with the current T+1 settlement rules, and the applicability of regulatory authority in the absence of intermediaries or under new intermediary structures.

Agent Garrett Jin of "1011 Insider Whale" stated that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has entered its 16th day, and since February 27, oil prices have risen by about 45%. The price of Brent crude oil has risen above $103, and there are still no signs of a ceasefire. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) may only be able to cover about 12% to 15% of the supply gap. The recommended trading strategy in the near term is to be bullish on oil and reduce equity exposure, especially in the assets of net energy-importing economies such as Japan, South Korea, and Europe. Meanwhile, in an environment where interest rates, the dollar, and oil prices are all rising, overall market liquidity is tightening. Investors should maintain cash positions, shorten duration, and remain vigilant.

Sources say the International Energy Agency suggests that the released oil reserves could total up to 400 million barrels.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua posted on platform X: "The biggest problem in the crypto industry in recent years is the decline of innovation, which stems from two aspects. First, the previous U.S. government's tightening of crypto policies, which should be resolved with the passage of the recent crypto infrastructure bill. Second, Binance's requirement for projects to adhere to a 1+3 year lock-up mechanism for crypto VCs.I believe Binance's original intention is good, fostering a long-term investment mindset. However, the consequence of this mechanism is that project parties, market makers, and exchanges run away with liquidity first, while VCs face a long unlocking period that leads to zero. VCs originally bore the greatest risks in the primary market, yet they also have to bear the risk of exiting last, which is clearly contrary to traditional investment markets. The result of this is the collective demise of crypto VCs, making it difficult for quality entrepreneurs to secure funding and reducing industry innovation.I suggest giving Zhao Changpeng a better exit mechanism for crypto VCs to activate VC capital, which will benefit industry innovation and also be more favorable for exchanges to list quality assets."

Renowned trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt, who successfully predicted the Bitcoin crash in 2018, released a chart showing the "big banana" pattern, which represents a massive upward-curving channel on the long-term weekly chart (2014-2027).The "small banana" pattern is a smaller similar curve currently forming around $69,000 on the daily chart. The arrow clearly points upward, indicating higher targets.

According to QCP Capital's latest market commentary, despite the escalation of tensions in Iran over the weekend pushing oil prices above $115 and global stock markets turning defensive, Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience.Options flow also indicates that market concerns about further declines have eased, with put skew moderating compared to the spike earlier last week. The report notes that U.S. Treasuries and gold have failed to provide their usual safe-haven function, as soaring oil prices exacerbate inflation concerns and push yields higher, with the dollar becoming the preferred safe-haven asset. Downside protection for Bitcoin still exists, but options flow reflects more nuanced expectations, such as the purchase of straddles expiring in April, indicating that the market anticipates continued volatility rather than a one-sided decline.The highest open interest for March is concentrated in $75,000 and $125,000 call options, showing that despite ongoing macro uncertainty, optimism towards Bitcoin is returning. This week's focus includes Wednesday's CPI, Thursday's jobless claims, and Friday's core PCE and JOLTS job openings data.

According to Jinshi, Federal Reserve official Kashkari stated that the strong performance of the economy suggests that the neutral interest rate may rise.

Famous trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt, who successfully predicted the Bitcoin crash in 2018, responded today on the X platform to NBA retired star Scottie Pippen's bullish tweet about Bitcoin, suggesting to buy at the "banana" support level (around $42,000). The "banana" refers to the unique lower boundary of Peter Brandt's Bitcoin channel model, which forms a banana shape on a logarithmic chart and has accurately predicted past bear market bottoms.According to this model, Peter Brandt predicts that Bitcoin will break through $250,000 by the end of 2029.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, when asked for advice on his successor as Fed chair, said to stay away from politics. "Don't engage in elected politics, don't get caught up in elected politics."He added, "Our window into democratic accountability is Congress. Engaging with Congress and the public is not a passive burden, but an active routine obligation. If you want democratic legitimacy, you have to earn it through interaction with our elected overseers."

Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, stated at the World Economic Forum in Davos that the global monetary order is collapsing, and the United States and its allies are losing trust in each other, suggesting to buy gold.In the past, people used fiat currency and bonds as a "piggy bank," but central banks around the world are starting to feel that this piggy bank might be a "landmine." In 2025, the highest gains will not be in tech stocks but in gold. The performance of the U.S. market has also begun to lag behind overseas markets, and the world is entering a capital war.The rise of gold is not just a number; it reflects the uneasy glances between U.S. Treasury bondholders and the continuously printing U.S. dollars. The U.S. is worried about the sell-off of dollar assets, while bondholders feel anxious about the Federal Reserve's limitless money printing. It's time to consider what to do if no one wants to buy U.S. Treasuries in the future.

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Professionals Association submitted a position paper on the implementation of the Crypto Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) and CRS revisions in Hong Kong, supporting mandatory registration for RCASP and RFI to align with OECD standards and maintain Hong Kong's status as a financial center. The association recommends providing a simplified or lightweight registration and reporting mechanism for "zero reporting" entities to reduce compliance costs, while also supporting an administrative penalty mechanism to replace criminal liability.In addition, the association supports the "dual reporting" default option for CARF and CRS to reduce system complexity and the risk of underreporting, and calls for the provision of an API reporting interface to meet the automated compliance needs of large crypto institutions.