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According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is currently hovering around $75,000, facing supply pressure, but institutional demand remains stable.Market sentiment is boosted by news of the extended ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. The dollar has fallen to a near six-week low, and U.S. Treasury yields have also declined, conditions that typically support cryptocurrency prices; gold has risen in tandem, indicating that the market is seeking a balance between risk appetite and safe-haven demand.On-chain data shows that when prices reach a key cost benchmark for short-term holders, Bitcoin often experiences a supply surge. This level is around $76,800, which could constitute significant resistance, at which point investors may choose to take profits when breaking even.The newly established MSBT fund under Morgan Stanley has quickly attracted over $100 million in inflows due to the market's lowest fee rates, prompting competitors like Goldman Sachs to initiate a new round of competition.Meanwhile, the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and Iran's threats to disrupt shipping in the Persian Gulf continue to cast a shadow over the global economic outlook. The impact on energy supply has begun to raise inflation expectations, which may influence central bank policy direction and, in turn, affect the cryptocurrency market.

Famous trader Killa (@KillaXBT) posted that there is a CME exhaustion gap around $84,000 for Bitcoin, just before the waterfall decline. This gap is similar to two gaps in 2022, which took 290 days and over 500 days to fill, respectively. Killa believes that the current Bitcoin trend is highly similar to the 2022 pattern, suggesting that the $84,000 gap is unlikely to be filled in the short term, so the local top may be closer than most people expect to the $80,000 target.He reminds traders that the current market's expectation of chasing highs may face downward pressure rather than a quick rebound. In previous news, Killa announced that he had shorted Bitcoin at $74,688, with a stop-loss price of $80,000. As a quantitative trader focused on BTC, Killa predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025 and has over 180,000 followers on the X platform.

According to The Hill, the White House seems eager to push for a resolution to the dispute between the banking industry and the cryptocurrency sector, a dispute that has hindered Senate negotiations on the legislation since the beginning of this year. Key officials both inside and outside the U.S. government—from Treasury Secretary Scott Bansen to White House crypto advisor Patrick Witte, and former head of AI and crypto affairs David Sacks—have recently called for the passage of the bill.At the same time, the Council of Economic Advisers released a report that countered the relevant concerns of the banking industry. However, it is still unclear whether the White House's push is sufficient to overcome the issues plaguing the bill, which are not limited to the narrow industry disputes that have dominated discussions over the past three months. Christopher Neuber, a senior research analyst at Beacon Policy Advisors, stated in an interview, "From a timing perspective, their judgment is reasonable—if Congress has the opportunity to push the market structure bill through, now is that opportunity."

According to Jin Shi reports, U.S. President Trump stated that if Federal Reserve Chairman Powell continues to serve after his term ends, he will be fired. Powell's term as chairman will end on May 15.Trump said, "If he doesn't leave, then I will have to fire him." Currently, Trump's nominated successor, Waller, has not yet been confirmed by the Senate, and Powell may continue to serve in an "acting chairman" capacity. Trump also criticized Powell for not lowering interest rates as he wished and questioned the cost of the Federal Reserve headquarters renovation project.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost tweeted that yesterday, when Bitcoin tested the $75,000 mark, short-term holders (STHs) significantly increased BTC transfers to exchanges, sending over 65,000 BTC within 24 hours. Among them, profit-taking was dominant, with about 61,000 BTC being sold for profit.Darkfost pointed out that any price increase is currently seen as an exit opportunity, regardless of whether it is profitable. Short-term holders remain highly sensitive and quick to react in the face of price fluctuations.

According to the official announcement, the Binance Flash Exchange Regular Investment Rebate Program will terminate on May 1, 2026, at 7:59. At that time, flash exchange regular investment transactions will no longer receive rebate rewards from this program.The qualified rebates accumulated by users in April 2026 will be fully distributed before the end of May 2026. The existing regular investment program will continue to operate, but the rebate incentives will cease.

Greeks.live macro researcher Adam pointed out on the X platform that as the price of Bitcoin continues to rebound, the implied volatility (IV) of major term options is actually decreasing, and while IV is falling, the skew is clearly positively biased. The main reason for this phenomenon is that the military conflict between the U.S. and Iran is gradually calming down, and the market's concerns about war risks are dissipating, leading to a significant drop in the prices of put options.The trading on the order book and in bulk is relatively balanced, with major transactions concentrated in the current and next month. The market is readjusting its position layout, and the main participants have reached a consensus on the future market expectations—low volatility expectations are becoming the mainstream in the market.

Wintermute stated that the market experienced two distinct phases last week: the first half of the week was driven by ceasefire expectations, with the Nasdaq rising 4.5%, Bitcoin up 2.6%, and the VIX falling below 20. Over the weekend, talks in Islamabad broke down, and the U.S. announced a comprehensive maritime blockade on Iranian ports, causing Brent crude oil to surge 8% in a single day, returning above $103, leading risk assets to give back their gains.On the macro front: U.S. March CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year, with core CPI slightly below expectations at 2.6%. The market believes this is still a concentrated energy shock rather than widespread inflation. Asian markets saw a slight decline overnight, with Nasdaq futures steady. The market's reaction to each new piece of news is weakening, suggesting that it may have priced in the worst-case scenario or is becoming complacent.In terms of crypto assets: Bitcoin closed up 2.6% last week but did not lead the gains. The price has been consolidating in the $65,000-$73,000 range for over two months. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $22.3 million last week, while Ethereum ETFs continued to bleed, with outflows reaching $327 million year-to-date. Open interest in perpetual contracts has stabilized in the $28-30 billion range.Options traders' gamma exposure in the $68,000-$72,000 range indicates that hedging activities will amplify bidirectional volatility within that range. Wintermute believes that the ceasefire trade is dead, and the market is returning to an escalation trend. However, the market's reaction function is weakening. Confirmation of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could push Bitcoin to break above $75,000, while continued escalation may keep prices in a range-bound fluctuation with a downward tendency. The earnings season may partially shift market attention back to fundamentals, which could change the positioning behavior at the edges of the range.

According to Gate market data, the three major U.S. stock index futures have risen sharply in the short term, with the Dow Jones index futures up 0.09%, the S&P 500 index futures up 0.14%, and the Nasdaq 100 index futures up 0.29%.

According to Cointelegraph, Bernstein stated that the previous pullback of Bitcoin has to some extent reflected the market's concerns about the risks of quantum computing, believing that this threat is "real but manageable," and is not yet an imminent systemic risk.Although research, including that from Google, suggests that future quantum computers could potentially crack commonly used blockchain encryption algorithms quickly under extreme conditions, advancements in zero-knowledge proofs and post-quantum cryptography have formed a hedge to some extent.Bernstein believes that Bitcoin developers still have about 3 to 5 years to advance the post-quantum upgrade path and mentioned the current BIP-360 proposal, which could reduce some quantum exposure risks through a soft fork. Additionally, institutional investors (including ETF issuers and corporate holders) are expected to play an active role in promoting consensus for the upgrade.However, industry opinions point out that the main challenge of the post-quantum upgrade lies in user migration and consensus formation, rather than the technical implementation itself.

In the 13th anniversary open letter, Gate founder and CEO Dr. Han pointed out that the crypto industry is undergoing a structural reshaping driven by multiple variables. Technological evolution, improvements in regulatory systems, changes in the macro environment, and a broader user base are all working together to influence the industry's development path, continuously raising the overall threshold.Dr. Han stated that this change is reflected not only in compliance and technical requirements but also in the higher demands for platform system capabilities and long-term investment; as the threshold rises, resources and space are accelerating towards participants who possess long-term judgment and sustained investment capabilities, and long-termists will gain more certain growth opportunities in the new cycle.As a global leading crypto asset trading platform, Gate always regards security and transparency as the cornerstone of development, being the first to introduce a 100% reserve proof scheme and continuously expanding its global compliance footprint. Currently, multiple entities under Gate have obtained or completed relevant regulatory registrations, license applications, authorizations, or approvals in jurisdictions such as Malta, Cyprus, the Bahamas, Japan, Australia, and Dubai. At the same time, the platform deeply integrates AI innovative technology, building an ecosystem that covers multi-asset allocation and full-scenario services, driving the industry towards a smarter and more sustainable future.

According to Tencent News' "Periscope," the Vice President of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Chen Weimin, stated that the timeline for issuing the second batch of licenses has not yet been determined, as it needs to be "based on the operational situation of the first two companies," and the total number of licenses in the future will be very limited.In addition, sources revealed that Chinese institutions that participated in the application submission have received "window guidance" from relevant departments, requesting them to postpone their participation in the stablecoin license application. However, some Chinese institutions have continued to communicate with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority over the past few months. After excluding Chinese institutions, the vast majority of the proposed applicants have limited capabilities, and there are not many qualified institutions that can fully meet the requirements of the "Stablecoin Regulation."Lee Kuan-hong, the head of HSBC Payme, told reporters that any Payme user can open a stablecoin account. In the stablecoin account, users can directly transfer money to friends and family, transfer to merchants, or invest in products linked to stablecoins. Users in the HSBC app cannot directly open an account; they must wait for HSBC to screen eligible users before applying for a stablecoin account.Payme account opening has required users to be local residents of Hong Kong, while users of the HSBC app also include mainland users. Under the existing management framework in Hong Kong, only local residents can participate in virtual asset trading, and mainland customers, even if they are mobile payment users of HSBC Hong Kong, cannot apply for a stablecoin account.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, the spot price of RAVE has risen from $0.3 to $6.2 in the past three days, achieving an increase of about 20 times. During this period, the RAVE team first transferred 30.58 million RAVE (worth about $42 million) to Bitget, attracting funds to short.Subsequently, in the past two days, another 31.94 million RAVE was brought back on-chain from Bitget, significantly raising the spot price of RAVE on trading platforms like Bitget.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the current Bitcoin market is entering an early stabilization phase, with long-term holding behavior gradually strengthening, indicating that the market structure may be undergoing a change.Data shows that since October, the number of BTC held for over one year has increased from about 12 million to approximately 12.4 million. Although the increase is still moderate, it reflects a shift in market behavior towards long-term holding. Since mid-December, the 30-day change has consistently remained positive, indicating that investors are more inclined to continue holding rather than distributing their assets. Darkfost pointed out that this change typically signifies a transition from a speculation-dominated phase to a stronger long-term conviction phase. Historically, the proportion of long-term holdings usually declines significantly at market peaks and gradually rises during bear markets, so the current trend can be seen as an early stabilization signal for the market. However, he also emphasized that this indicator belongs to a long-term dimension and typically requires a longer time to form a clear trend, and we are still in the early stages.

According to CoinDesk, The Ether Machine, an Ethereum treasury company, announced on Friday that its $1.6 billion SPAC merger agreement with Dynamix Corporation (stock code: DYNX) has been terminated due to unfavorable market conditions.The merger agreement was initially disclosed in 2025, aiming to list The Ether Machine on Nasdaq under the stock code ETHM. The company is positioned as an Ethereum treasury and yield vehicle, generating returns through staking and DeFi strategies while holding a large reserve of Ethereum. According to CoinGecko data, The Ether Machine currently holds 496,712 ETH, valued at over $1.1 billion.The transaction garnered attention due to its scale, which included a $1.5 billion fully subscribed PIPE financing, described as the largest of its kind since 2021, in addition to approximately $170 million in the Dynamix trust account. The Ethereum holdings of the merged entity are expected to exceed 400,000 ETH, partly contributed by co-founder Andrew Keys' investment.In their termination statement, the two companies stated that this was "mutually agreed upon by both parties to terminate." According to documents filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), as part of the termination agreement, Dynamix will receive $50 million in compensation within 15 days.

According to CoinDesk, Ron Hammond, the policy head of crypto market maker Wintermute, stated that the legislative process for the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, is still hindered by multiple factors, with a probability of passing this year at about 30%.The bill aims to clarify the division of responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC in the regulation of digital assets, but the current negotiation progress is uneven, with the timeline repeatedly delayed. The main resistance comes from traditional banking institutions, particularly around the significant disagreements regarding whether stablecoins should offer yields. Compromise proposals have been blocked multiple times, and additionally, the internal divisions within the Democratic Party, as well as issues related to DeFi compliance and anti-money laundering, add uncertainty to the legislation.However, Ron Hammond believes there is still room for the bill to advance, but whether it can be enacted within the year depends on whether key disagreements can be resolved.

Liquid Capital founder Jack Yi stated during a live broadcast at Binance Square on April 8 that since entering the cryptocurrency industry at the end of 2015 and experiencing two to three cycles of bull and bear markets, he still tends to be "long-term bullish," but the premise is not to be overly optimistic and to face the market's cyclicality and "huge volatility." In his view, the pullbacks and rebounds of crypto assets far exceed those of traditional markets, and investors need to maintain clarity and risk awareness amid the volatility.Regarding the market pressure this year, Yi attributed it to multiple external factors: the unfulfilled expectations of interest rate cuts at the macro level, geopolitical disturbances, slower-than-expected policy advancements, and the cooling of certain narratives (such as "national strategy"); combined with the impact of the four-year cycle, he believes the correction may exceed the original plan. However, he emphasized that this is more about the external financial environment and cycles amplifying short-term volatility, and his core judgment on ETH from a long-term perspective has not changed.On the strategic level, he believes that the difficulty of primary investments has significantly increased after 2022-2023: early-stage primary project cycles are shorter, and liquidity is released faster, but as market structures and unlocking/circulation arrangements change, the window of opportunity for investors has clearly narrowed, making primary investments "not as easy as before." Therefore, he is gradually reducing his involvement in primary investments and focusing more on research and opportunity capture in the secondary market.In addition, he emphasized that AI is accelerating the reshaping of the competitive landscape: over the past two to three months, he has invested more effort into learning about AI and promoting the transformation of invested companies towards AI, believing that individuals and teams that do not understand or cannot use AI in the future may be quickly eliminated. In response to external controversies such as "pumping and dumping," he stated that investment ultimately depends on asset value and trends, and large markets are difficult to be driven by a single participant.

BIT's weekly report indicates that with the announcement of a ceasefire, inflationary pressures have risen, and the selection of the Federal Reserve Chair is also in a phase of heightened transition expectations. Logically, these factors combined should have led to more significant market fluctuations, but Bitcoin's overall response remains relatively limited. The market's muted reaction to multiple variables coming into play is noteworthy.From a geopolitical perspective, the ceasefire arrangement promoted by Trump still faces considerable uncertainty in its actual implementation. Iran's influence in the passage arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz remains strong, and related shipping traffic is significantly below normal levels.From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is in a clearly oversold range, with some indicators beginning to show marginal recovery. However, it is still too early to conclude that the downward trend has ended based solely on these signals. In 2022, a similar oversold condition lasted for several months, during which there were moments of rebound signals, but ultimately failed to form an effective reversal. More important than whether the indicators rebound is which price level will trigger a market repricing, as well as the outcomes of two key events next week.