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Gray Research Director: Ethereum is like a "small country," and the issuance of ETH determines the balance between network security and currency

Zach Pandl, the head of research at Grayscale, posted on the X platform comparing Ethereum to a "small country" and discussed the ETH issuance mechanism. He believes that Ethereum has only one core "government function": to protect property rights and value exchange within the system. Unlike traditional countries that provide public services through taxation, Ethereum primarily funds network security through "seigniorage," which is the issuance of new ETH.In this framework, the stakers responsible for maintaining network security are akin to a group providing public services, as they receive rewards through newly issued ETH. Therefore, Ethereum's staking mechanism and ETH issuance policy essentially constitute the network's fiscal and monetary policy. Zach Pandl pointed out that the Ethereum community needs to decide how much "new currency" should be used to cover network security costs. More security typically means stronger protection of property rights, but at the cost of a higher ETH issuance rate and potential other risks.For example, if network security increasingly relies on a few large staking service providers, there remains room for discussion about whether these providers can maintain the asset rights of all users completely neutrally. Pandl believes that, just as in traditional economies, no one knows the "optimal level" of government spending and currency issuance; the same applies to Ethereum. However, Ethereum has several key security thresholds, including: 1/3: an attacker reaching this ratio may affect finality; 1/2: affects blockchain fork choice; 2/3: can control the finality process. Some community members believe that the design of Ethereum's monetary and fiscal policy should consider the security trade-offs brought by these key ratios, while the current mechanism has not adequately incorporated these factors. However, the above analogy is not entirely accurate, as it does not yet involve other important factors such as the ETH burn mechanism, MEV, governance, etc.

Financial Times: JPMorgan Chase terminated banking services for Polymarket last year, but is still vying for its IPO underwriting opportunity

According to the Financial Times, JPMorgan Chase terminated its banking services for Polymarket last October due to regulatory concerns, requiring the company to seek new banking institutions. Previously, Polymarket was banned from providing services to U.S. customers after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission took enforcement action in 2022.Currently, Polymarket has partnered with a new bank, but the specific name has not been disclosed. JPMorgan Chase still maintains business dealings with Polymarket and invited its CEO Shayne Coplan to participate in a private banking client meeting held in Miami this February, where he spoke alongside former NFL player Tom Brady. Polymarket stated that the two parties continue to maintain a close and active relationship in various areas, including multiple entities, operational integration, and customer fund flow management.Since 2026, prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have faced legal actions from multiple U.S. states regarding their alleged operation as illegal sports bookmakers, while the relevant platforms argue that they operate as exchanges facilitating trades between buyers and sellers, rather than as bookmakers. According to user aggregated data, the nominal trading volume of prediction markets has exceeded $250 billion since 2026.Meanwhile, Polymarket is seeking over $1 billion in financing, with a target valuation of $20 billion, more than doubling from the approximately $8 billion valuation during the last round of financing in 2025.

Wintermute: Capital rotation is withdrawing from the Bitcoin narrative, institutions may be accumulating as planned

Wintermute released a report stating that the upcoming U.S. CPI data to be announced on Wednesday will be key in testing whether the recent interest rate repricing can be sustained. The cryptocurrency market has joined the ranks of rising risk appetite. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net inflow for five consecutive trading days, totaling $853.5 million, marking the best weekly performance since mid-April; the Ethereum ETF has also seen a net inflow for the fifth consecutive week, increasing by $244.9 million, with BlackRock accounting for over 80% of the combined inflow of $1.1 billion for both.These inflows occurred against a backdrop of relatively low trading volume, more characteristic of institutional planned allocations rather than aggressive momentum buying, and reversed the narrative of fund rotation away from Bitcoin over the past two weeks, indicating that ETF demand is being matched by supply from elsewhere.On the institutional front, Wells Fargo announced it will launch a tokenized deposit business this fall, starting with the USD-GBP corridor and operating on its own chain, joining the ranks of JPMorgan and Citigroup to bring settlement rails on-chain.Meanwhile, the Senate Majority Leader submitted a motion to end debate on the CLARITY Act early Saturday morning, which will undergo procedural voting on September 15, requiring support from at least seven non-Republican senators. The improvement in ETF inflows is encouraging but still represents a preliminary signal. A strong weekly performance alone is insufficient to confirm a structural shift; the entire risk asset sector has just been repriced due to one piece of data. If Wednesday's CPI exceeds expectations and pushes the probability of a rate hike in September back above 50%, it could quickly alter the core logic supporting the current upward trend.Recent key catalysts include the CPI on August 12, the PPI on the 13th, retail sales data on the 14th, followed by the Jackson Hole meeting from August 27-29, and the vote to end debate on the CLARITY Act on September 15. Until ETF inflows and digital asset treasury activities prove their sustainability throughout the remainder of the summer, it is advisable to remain cautious, even as the market increasingly trades on institutional terms.
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