trap

According to a report by The Information, Tether has some funds trapped at one of its offshore banking partners, which is facing liquidation risk after asset seizures in the United States.Tether stated that the assets it holds at the bank EQIBank are limited, accounting for less than 0.034% of its total assets.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin is currently operating above the "active supply cost basis" of $71,300, which represents the average cost of BTC actually circulating in the market and may form significant support.On the other hand, the "capital input cost basis" of $79,800 constitutes resistance, as BTC has previously faced obstacles at this level, with some loss-making positions choosing to exit after approaching breakeven.

The Slow Fog security team recently disclosed the discovery of a malicious GitHub repository impersonating the "Qwen 3.8 27B local quantitative model." The repository claims that the model file should exceed 16GB, while the actual downloaded content is only about 487KB, containing disguised files, a LuaJIT interpreter, and obfuscated Lua scripts. Slow Fog emphasizes that the official Qwen project has not been compromised.Slow Fog's analysis indicates that after the malicious program runs, it will collect host information, capture the screen, and send it to the attacker's C2 server; when the hard-coded server fails, it will also read backup C2 addresses from contracts on the Polygon chain, allowing the attacker to rotate infrastructure through on-chain transactions.Subsequent payloads can steal browser login information, cookies, history, email, WinSCP, Steam credentials, as well as files and extension data related to cryptocurrency wallets. Slow Fog also found that at least 23 GitHub repositories and 29 similar compressed packages used the same Lua delivery chain.

Glassnode co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft stated that the current low volatility environment of Bitcoin (BTC) does not necessarily indicate an investment opportunity, and the market may be forming a "volatility trap."Schultze-Kraft pointed out that the implied volatility of BTC is currently in the lowest 2% range of historical distribution, but the volatility level priced in the options market is still about 1.5 times that of the actual market volatility performance.He noted that the "volatility trap score" constructed by Glassnode has currently reached 91/100, the highest level in over 3.5 years. Schultze-Kraft believes that although the current market appears to be in an extremely low volatility state, the options prices do not fully reflect the actual trends, and the volatility premium paid by investors may be relatively high.This indicator shows that the market is experiencing a rare phase of volatility compression. Historically, similar extreme low volatility environments often create conditions for subsequent volatility expansion, but the specific direction still depends on capital flows, the macro environment, and market catalysts.

According to monitoring by PeckShield, the attacker-controlled address 0x920d...9708 stole approximately 500,000 USDC from the Base chain victim wallet 0x3a53...0B5c.However, during the subsequent process of exchanging USDC for ETH, the attacker did not set sufficient slippage protection, and the transaction was front-run by MEV bots for arbitrage. Ultimately, the attacker only obtained about 67 WETH, worth approximately $129,000, losing over 75% of the stolen funds.

Security company Socket Security disclosed that a cryptocurrency theft operation named TrapDoor is launching active supply chain attacks in package repositories such as npm, PyPI, and Crates.io. A total of 34 malicious packages and 384 versions and components have been identified, with attackers continuously pushing new versions across various ecosystems.TrapDoor primarily targets developers in the cryptocurrency, DeFi, AI, and security fields, stealing wallets, SSH keys, cloud credentials, GitHub tokens, browser data, environment variables, and API keys. Socket detected that the median detection time for malicious versions was 5 minutes and 27 seconds, with the fastest detection occurring 58 seconds after release.

MonetSupply, the strategy director at Spark, posted on platform X that Aave has decided to lift the freeze on the Ethereum Core WETH market. Under the current interest rate model, LST/LRT holders can execute high-leverage circular strategies using assets like weETH, taking advantage of the approximately 0.5% discount on the weETH market price and the Aave ETH borrowing rate cap of 5.15%, to achieve an annualized return potential of about 45%.Currently, the utilization rate of the aEthWETH market has reached 100%, making it more difficult for regular depositors and stablecoin borrowing users to exit or refinance from aWETH. MonetSupply pointed out that this decision provides arbitrage opportunities without addressing the liquidity tension of aEthWETH, weakening the liquidity and experience for regular users.

On-chain analyst Murphy stated that the average cost of all loss-making Bitcoin chips has currently fallen below $100,000, now at only $93,600. This means that under the current chip structure, BTC will reach the market average breakeven point when it rises back to $93,000. During the two rapid declines at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, a large number of high-position trapped chips chose to cut losses and exit, lowering the average cost of overall floating loss chips.It is also observed that the average cost of loss-making chips has a deviation coefficient of 1.4 compared to the current 30-day average price of BTC, while in the past three bear market bottoms, the deviation coefficient has exceeded 2 at least. When the average deviation coefficient is greater than or equal to 2, it indicates that the market has entered an absolute bottom range, at which point the price of BTC is less than 50% of the average cost of loss-making chips. To meet this condition, the lowest point of BTC in this round would need to drop to $46,800, but historical patterns may not always hold true. This bear market may be less painful than any previous bear market. According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the market related to whether Bitcoin will reach $60,000 or $80,000 first on Polymarket, the probability of reaching $60,000 first is 68%, while the probability of reaching $80,000 first is 32%.

Bitcoin is currently maintaining a range-bound oscillation pattern. Under the multiple pressures of the macro environment, market liquidity continues to be constrained, and the price direction remains unclear. Analysis indicates that the interplay of energy prices, monetary policy, and geopolitical risks has led to a compression of liquidity, causing the market to enter a "wait-and-see period." The current market is not lacking in structure but rather in incremental funds.Recently, Bitcoin has stabilized after experiencing volatility, with selling pressure easing somewhat, while ETF fund flows have shown a slight net inflow. However, spot demand remains weak, and the imbalance between supply and demand limits price breakthroughs. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has found support in the $67,000-$69,000 range, with a key resistance level forming around $72,000. Analysts state that there is a "liquidity gap" above this range, and once effectively broken, the price could quickly rise to the $82,000 area; however, until demand shows significant improvement, the market will continue to maintain an oscillating pattern.On the macro level, high energy prices, global central banks maintaining high interest rates, and uncertainties in the Middle East collectively exacerbate market concerns about "stagflation" risks. Kraken Research points out that the combination of slowing growth and inflationary pressures complicates the policy path and suppresses the performance of risk assets. Against this backdrop, the market has entered a "liquidity compression phase."Bitunix analysis suggests that the mismatch of multiple macro factors has compressed funds into a narrow range, with Bitcoin acting more as a risk appetite indicator rather than a trend trading target. In terms of funds, the March spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately $1.5 billion, an improvement from the net outflow in February, but still below January levels, indicating cautious institutional fund inflows. The derivatives market is leaning defensive, with funding rates remaining negative and high demand for downside protection; meanwhile, spot trading volume has not shown sustained growth, indicating limited market participation. Overall, Bitcoin has not yet formed a clear breakthrough or downward trend, and is currently closer to a "accumulation and consolidation" phase, with future movements still dependent on macro data, policy signals, and changes in geopolitical situations.

Bitcoin recently rebounded to $74,000 before falling back to around $70,000, with the market showing clear divisions on whether this position has formed a temporary top. Some analysts believe the current trend is highly similar to the mid-structure of the 2022 bear market.Data shows that Bitcoin reached a high of $126,000 in October 2025, followed by a rebound peak approximately 149 days later, which is similar to the previous two cycles. Some traders believe that this round of increase may just be a liquidity trap, and the price could still further decline to below $60,000, or even test the liquidity dense area between $62,000 and $65,000. However, there are also analysts who hold the opposite view, believing that a temporary bottom has formed near $60,000.Unlike in 2022, this round of correction has not effectively broken below the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), but instead rebounded after a retest, indicating a stronger market structure. Additionally, institutional funds continue to flow in through spot ETFs, and the tightening market supply is also seen as an important factor supporting prices. Bullish analysts believe that as long as the key support level of $70,000 remains intact, the market still has a chance to initiate a new upward movement towards the $75,000 to $80,000 range.

10X Research CEO Markus Thielen stated at the Consensus Hong Kong conference: "After the November 2024 election, Bitcoin will rapidly rise from $70,000 to $90,000 in just 10 to 12 days. This process will have very sparse trading activity, creating a huge gap, a liquidity vacuum.So when Bitcoin falls back to $87,000, it will drop into this liquidity trap. What happens next is that at the $75,000 level, a large amount of negative options gamma appears. This means that market makers must hedge and can only keep selling futures. As the final wave of negative gamma shock is digested at $60,000, the market situation may turn around."

On-chain data analyst Murphy posted on social media that after Bitcoin reached a high of $97,000 on January 15, it quickly dropped to $73,000, swiftly breaking through the psychological support of $80,000. Under the dominance of panic sentiment, the trapped positions above $80,000 have net decreased by over 610,000 coins within 20 days, accounting for 88% of the total outflow, becoming the main source of selling pressure.However, on-chain URPD data reveals an important structural change: the selling pressure from long-term holders has significantly weakened (only accounting for 9.7% of the reduction), indicating a clear reluctance to sell among long-term holders. Meanwhile, there has been strong buying in the $70,000-$80,000 range, with a net purchase of about 450,000 BTC, nearly double the absorption volume in the $80,000-$90,000 range, suggesting that some funds are "buying more as prices drop," using real money to layer their resistance.Murphy stated that the difference in this cycle compared to previous ones is that bulls are showing sustained and layered defense during the decline, with the accumulation zones gradually moving down rather than collapsing in a step-like manner. Although there are pessimistic predictions that "the bear bottom will see $50,000 or $30,000," once the bears compress the bulls' defense to the extreme, coupled with a lack of supply, the market may welcome a strong counterattack from the bulls.

According to Jinshi News, Damian Boey, portfolio strategist at Wilson Asset Management, stated that Waller tends to favor lowering interest rates but hopes the Federal Reserve will reduce the size of its balance sheet to achieve rate cuts.The market is reacting by contemplating what the world will look like if the Federal Reserve's balance sheet shrinks. Once discussions about withdrawing support begin, assets such as gold, cryptocurrencies, and bonds will be sold off.