trap

On-chain analyst Murphy stated that the average cost of all loss-making Bitcoin chips has currently fallen below $100,000, now at only $93,600. This means that under the current chip structure, BTC will reach the market average breakeven point when it rises back to $93,000. During the two rapid declines at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, a large number of high-position trapped chips chose to cut losses and exit, lowering the average cost of overall floating loss chips.It is also observed that the average cost of loss-making chips has a deviation coefficient of 1.4 compared to the current 30-day average price of BTC, while in the past three bear market bottoms, the deviation coefficient has exceeded 2 at least. When the average deviation coefficient is greater than or equal to 2, it indicates that the market has entered an absolute bottom range, at which point the price of BTC is less than 50% of the average cost of loss-making chips. To meet this condition, the lowest point of BTC in this round would need to drop to $46,800, but historical patterns may not always hold true. This bear market may be less painful than any previous bear market. According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the market related to whether Bitcoin will reach $60,000 or $80,000 first on Polymarket, the probability of reaching $60,000 first is 68%, while the probability of reaching $80,000 first is 32%.

Bitcoin is currently maintaining a range-bound oscillation pattern. Under the multiple pressures of the macro environment, market liquidity continues to be constrained, and the price direction remains unclear. Analysis indicates that the interplay of energy prices, monetary policy, and geopolitical risks has led to a compression of liquidity, causing the market to enter a "wait-and-see period." The current market is not lacking in structure but rather in incremental funds.Recently, Bitcoin has stabilized after experiencing volatility, with selling pressure easing somewhat, while ETF fund flows have shown a slight net inflow. However, spot demand remains weak, and the imbalance between supply and demand limits price breakthroughs. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has found support in the $67,000-$69,000 range, with a key resistance level forming around $72,000. Analysts state that there is a "liquidity gap" above this range, and once effectively broken, the price could quickly rise to the $82,000 area; however, until demand shows significant improvement, the market will continue to maintain an oscillating pattern.On the macro level, high energy prices, global central banks maintaining high interest rates, and uncertainties in the Middle East collectively exacerbate market concerns about "stagflation" risks. Kraken Research points out that the combination of slowing growth and inflationary pressures complicates the policy path and suppresses the performance of risk assets. Against this backdrop, the market has entered a "liquidity compression phase."Bitunix analysis suggests that the mismatch of multiple macro factors has compressed funds into a narrow range, with Bitcoin acting more as a risk appetite indicator rather than a trend trading target. In terms of funds, the March spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately $1.5 billion, an improvement from the net outflow in February, but still below January levels, indicating cautious institutional fund inflows. The derivatives market is leaning defensive, with funding rates remaining negative and high demand for downside protection; meanwhile, spot trading volume has not shown sustained growth, indicating limited market participation. Overall, Bitcoin has not yet formed a clear breakthrough or downward trend, and is currently closer to a "accumulation and consolidation" phase, with future movements still dependent on macro data, policy signals, and changes in geopolitical situations.

Bitcoin recently rebounded to $74,000 before falling back to around $70,000, with the market showing clear divisions on whether this position has formed a temporary top. Some analysts believe the current trend is highly similar to the mid-structure of the 2022 bear market.Data shows that Bitcoin reached a high of $126,000 in October 2025, followed by a rebound peak approximately 149 days later, which is similar to the previous two cycles. Some traders believe that this round of increase may just be a liquidity trap, and the price could still further decline to below $60,000, or even test the liquidity dense area between $62,000 and $65,000. However, there are also analysts who hold the opposite view, believing that a temporary bottom has formed near $60,000.Unlike in 2022, this round of correction has not effectively broken below the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), but instead rebounded after a retest, indicating a stronger market structure. Additionally, institutional funds continue to flow in through spot ETFs, and the tightening market supply is also seen as an important factor supporting prices. Bullish analysts believe that as long as the key support level of $70,000 remains intact, the market still has a chance to initiate a new upward movement towards the $75,000 to $80,000 range.

10X Research CEO Markus Thielen stated at the Consensus Hong Kong conference: "After the November 2024 election, Bitcoin will rapidly rise from $70,000 to $90,000 in just 10 to 12 days. This process will have very sparse trading activity, creating a huge gap, a liquidity vacuum.So when Bitcoin falls back to $87,000, it will drop into this liquidity trap. What happens next is that at the $75,000 level, a large amount of negative options gamma appears. This means that market makers must hedge and can only keep selling futures. As the final wave of negative gamma shock is digested at $60,000, the market situation may turn around."

On-chain data analyst Murphy posted on social media that after Bitcoin reached a high of $97,000 on January 15, it quickly dropped to $73,000, swiftly breaking through the psychological support of $80,000. Under the dominance of panic sentiment, the trapped positions above $80,000 have net decreased by over 610,000 coins within 20 days, accounting for 88% of the total outflow, becoming the main source of selling pressure.However, on-chain URPD data reveals an important structural change: the selling pressure from long-term holders has significantly weakened (only accounting for 9.7% of the reduction), indicating a clear reluctance to sell among long-term holders. Meanwhile, there has been strong buying in the $70,000-$80,000 range, with a net purchase of about 450,000 BTC, nearly double the absorption volume in the $80,000-$90,000 range, suggesting that some funds are "buying more as prices drop," using real money to layer their resistance.Murphy stated that the difference in this cycle compared to previous ones is that bulls are showing sustained and layered defense during the decline, with the accumulation zones gradually moving down rather than collapsing in a step-like manner. Although there are pessimistic predictions that "the bear bottom will see $50,000 or $30,000," once the bears compress the bulls' defense to the extreme, coupled with a lack of supply, the market may welcome a strong counterattack from the bulls.

According to Jinshi News, Damian Boey, portfolio strategist at Wilson Asset Management, stated that Waller tends to favor lowering interest rates but hopes the Federal Reserve will reduce the size of its balance sheet to achieve rate cuts.The market is reacting by contemplating what the world will look like if the Federal Reserve's balance sheet shrinks. Once discussions about withdrawing support begin, assets such as gold, cryptocurrencies, and bonds will be sold off.

According to market data, affected by the market downturn, the "10.11 Insider Whale" account's total floating loss has expanded to 103 million USD, and its position size has shrunk to 680 million USD. The current funding rate settlement has accumulated an additional 8.8 million USD loss, completely erasing the profits previously gained from shorting during the "10.11" crash. The current position information is as follows:5x ETH Long: Position size 584 million USD, average price 3149 USD, floating loss 87 million USD (-74%), liquidation price 2291 USD;10x SOL Long: Position size 58.95 million USD, average price 130 USD, floating loss 7.65 million USD (-130%);5x BTC Long: Position size 47.2 million USD, average price 91,500 USD, floating loss 5.19 million USD (-55%);In addition, this whale's on-chain address (0xcA0) has been rolling over positions to go long on ETH spot on the AAVE platform, accumulating a total of 148,000 ETH, with a total value of up to 433 million USD. The current loss is approximately 34.6 million USD, with an average price around 3050 USD, and the on-chain cycle of going long has resulted in a liquidation price in the range of 2300 to 2450 USD.The "10.11 Insider Whale" is an OG address that held over 50,000 BTC and had been dormant for 8 years, later gradually exchanging some BTC for ETH. Its operations have repeatedly aligned closely with Trump's statements and U.S. policy trends, positioning a 500 million USD BTC short just hours before the "10.11" crash, making nearly 100 million USD in profit and attracting market attention. BitForex CEO Garrett Jin has stated that this address is associated with some of its clients.

According to market news, the price of Bitcoin has been trapped in the range of $85,000 to $94,000 for 60 days, with recent selling pressure in the U.S. market becoming a key factor in the dominant direction.Although Bitcoin attempted to rise to $97,000 at the beginning of January, it lacked subsequent buying support, causing the price to fall back to the mid-range. Market momentum is closely related to ETF capital flows: the strong performance in January was accompanied by robust ETF inflows, while the subsequent pullback corresponded to record outflows of BTC and ETH ETFs. At the same time, the Coinbase premium turned into a discount, further confirming that U.S. counterparties are net sellers, indicating that the inflow of institutional capital (through ETFs, corporate treasuries, etc.) has turned negative, putting pressure on the market.Analysts believe that to effectively break through the range, it is necessary to observe whether the ETF capital flows and Coinbase premium can turn positive. Only when both of these indicators reverse can the market truly break through the mid-level of $90,000. This week's intensive macro events may serve as a catalyst to break the deadlock, including: the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Powell's speech, earnings reports from tech giants (Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Apple), progress in tariff negotiations, as well as potential dollar/yen intervention and government shutdown risks.Gold continues to set historical highs, while Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative has not yet shown the same safe-haven appeal in the current market environment. In summary, before the range is effectively broken, close attention should be paid to the $85,000 support level and the direction of ETF capital flows. The 60-day consolidation coinciding with intensive macro risk events means the market is about to choose a direction.

According to monitoring by HyperInsight, the top 30 long whales on the chain are currently experiencing significant losses. The largest long position is still held by the "suspected HYPE coin listing insider" whale (0x082e), with a current position size of approximately $31.9 million, an average price of 38.67, and an unrealized loss of $21.3 million (-337%), with a liquidation price of about $20.13.Previously, on December 18, the whale that "suffered a $26 million liquidation in HYPE longs" is now the second largest long position on the chain, with a current position size of approximately $13.06 million, an average price of 38.67, and an unrealized loss of $4.61 million (-177%), with a liquidation price of about $21.3.The whale closest to liquidation with a position size in the tens of millions is the address starting with (0x1c2), which currently has a liquidation price of $22.32, just 2.87% away from liquidation, with a position size of approximately $11.14 million and an unrealized loss of $910,000 (82%). It is worth noting that this address also holds BTC long positions in a full margin mode, which have also fallen into significant unrealized losses and are nearing liquidation. Since both positions share margin, if the relevant cryptocurrencies drop more than 2% simultaneously, this address will likely face a high risk of liquidation.

According to market news, the system has detected an "address poisoning" attack incident involving a total of approximately 509,000 USDT. The victim originally intended to transfer funds to the address 0xe842...D3E6F, but due to the similar case sensitivity of the address, mistakenly sent the funds to the forged address 0xe842...f3e6F. After the initial erroneous transfer of 5,000 USDT, another transfer of 509,000 USDT occurred within two minutes. Cyvers reminds users to stay vigilant and be cautious of forged address scams.

According to CoinDesk, the current narrow consolidation state of Bitcoin is similar to the range in April 2025. Since November 21, Bitcoin has been trading between $80,000 and $95,000, which roughly corresponds to the fluctuations between $76,000 and $85,000 from late February to early April 2025, when Bitcoin consolidated for 52 days and ended with a new round of increases, ultimately peaking at over $126,000 in October.Traders refer to this situation as "time-driven surrender," where prolonged dull price movements lead to impatient holders exiting the market. In recent years, as Bitcoin has matured as an asset and extreme declines seen in early cycles have not occurred, "time-driven surrender" has become the norm.

In response to the collective departure of the Zcash development team, the nonprofit organization behind the project, Bootstrap, clarified that the governance disputes leading to the departure of team members stemmed from legal restrictions faced while seeking external investment. Discussions have been held regarding "alternative structures for external investment and the privatization of Zashi," while collaborating with legal advisors to ensure that any path forward complies with U.S. nonprofit laws, aligns with Zcash's long-term mission, and does not jeopardize the broader Zcash community.

Multiple executives in the cryptocurrency industry and advocacy organizations have warned that modifying the stablecoin regulatory framework under the banking lobby's request, as outlined in the GENIUS Act, to restrict third parties from providing yields to stablecoin holders could undermine the United States' competitiveness in the global financial system and even pose a "national security trap."Pro-crypto lawyer John Deaton stated that banning stablecoin yield mechanisms might actually drive the market towards China's interest-bearing digital yuan, thereby weakening the dollar's position. The cryptocurrency industry organization Blockchain Association pointed out that there is currently no evidence that the development of stablecoins would disrupt the traditional banking system, and such modifications seem more like competitive blocking actions by large banks after achieving bipartisan consensus.Alexander Grieve, Vice President of Government Affairs at Paradigm, also warned that overturning existing reward arrangements would waste the progress made in legislation. Meanwhile, Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, bluntly stated that it would be a wrong choice for the U.S. to roll back related rules due to industry pressure.

Multiple executives in the cryptocurrency industry and advocacy organizations have warned that modifying the stablecoin regulatory framework under the banking lobby's demands in the GENIUS Act, which restricts providing yields to stablecoin holders through third parties, could undermine the United States' competitiveness in the global financial system and even pose a "national security trap."Pro-crypto lawyer John Deaton stated that banning stablecoin yield mechanisms might instead drive the market towards China's interest-bearing digital yuan, thereby weakening the dollar's position. The cryptocurrency industry organization Blockchain Association pointed out that there is currently no evidence that the development of stablecoins would disrupt the traditional banking system, and such modifications seem more like competitive obstruction by large banks after achieving bipartisan consensus.Alexander Grieve, Vice President of Government Affairs at Paradigm, also warned that overturning existing reward arrangements would waste the legislative progress made. Meanwhile, Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, bluntly stated that it would be a wrong choice for the U.S. to roll back related rules due to industry pressure.

The cryptocurrency market research firm Santiment stated on social media that since December 17, whales and large holders holding 10-10,000 BTC have accumulated an additional 56,227 BTC. This movement marks a local bottom in the cryptocurrency market.Although the overall market trend is relatively flat, the bullish divergence created by the accumulation behavior of large holders is bound to drive the market to at least a slight breakout. In the past 24 hours, the market situation has further improved, as retail traders (wallets holding 0.01 BTC) are starting to take profits, expecting the current situation to be a bull trap/fake rebound. Santiment indicated that, according to the indicators, the current market has entered a bullish range, and the probability of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization continuing to grow is higher than usual. However, caution is still needed, as whales may change their minds at any time and quickly take profits.

According to Gelonghui, Harry Dent, the founder of HS Dent Investment, recently warned that the most severe market crash in history will occur in 2026. Dent predicts that the current market bubble, which has lasted nearly 17 years, will burst, leading to a 90% drop in the stock market.He described it as the worst market environment since the Great Depression, with stocks, real estate, and digital assets deeply entrenched in a debt-driven "super bubble."Dent stated that early 2026—especially January—will be a critical period for determining whether the bubble will ultimately burst or continue for another year. The reason is that, based on historical experience, a strong performance in the stock market during the first week and the first month of January often indicates a bullish trend for the entire year; however, if January shows weakness, it will further confirm his bearish outlook.He concluded that the only asset that might "survive" is U.S. Treasury bonds, as they can print money to pay off debts. On this point, this economist seems to differ from some other well-known economists, as Peter Schiff previously predicted an unprecedented dollar collapse in 2026.

Cryptanalysis expert Michaël van de Poppe posted on the X platform that Bitcoin has been hovering between $85,000 and $90,000 for several weeks, and now it's a waiting game, with capital only likely to flow back into the cryptocurrency market after U.S. stocks reach local highs.Market analysis suggests that historically, Bitcoin tends to experience fluctuations of 5% to 7% during the Christmas period, a pattern usually related to year-end options expirations rather than new fundamental catalysts. Data shows that approximately 300,000 Bitcoin options contracts (worth $23.7 billion) and 446,000 IBIT options contracts are set to expire this Friday.