wait-and-see

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve pointed out in the Beige Book released on April 16 that economic activity in most regions of the United States continues to grow at a moderate to slight pace amid a new round of uncertainty triggered by the war in Iran and rising energy costs. Overall price increases remain moderate, but energy and fuel costs have risen significantly across all 12 Federal Reserve districts. The report indicates that the Middle East conflict is seen as a major source of uncertainty, increasing the complexity of businesses' decisions regarding hiring, pricing, and capital investment, with many businesses adopting a wait-and-see attitude. The data is as of April 6 and reflects the initial impact of the war on the U.S. economy.

According to Jinshi, Apollo's chief economist Slok stated that the Federal Reserve will indicate they are in a wait-and-see mode. Slok expects that the U.S. economic growth will accelerate this year, with current growth expectations exceeding market consensus.

According to Jinshi reports, "Fed's mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December is unlikely to change the Federal Reserve's current wait-and-see attitude. Officials want to see more evidence that inflation is stabilizing and gradually declining before considering rate cuts. The Fed has lowered the benchmark interest rate in the last three meetings, with the most recent cut in December, even though inflation stopped declining last year. To resume rate cuts, officials may need to see new evidence of worsening labor market conditions or easing price pressures.

According to Jin Shi reports, Barclays' Chief Market Strategist Julien Lafargue stated that the revisions to the U.S. payroll data from previous months will be closely watched tonight, as they may reveal the impact of the U.S. government shutdown. Barclays is skeptical that this data will significantly alter market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the first quarter. He pointed out that the employment report is just one piece of the puzzle, with other factors including inflation and the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on reciprocal tariffs.

According to Jinshi News, Rania Gule, an analyst at XS.com brokerage, stated that the current rise of the dollar may be limited and only temporary unless Friday's non-farm payroll report exceeds expectations.She pointed out that the dollar is "in a vulnerable position," and any signs of further weakness in the labor market could push it lower. Despite recent weak data, the dollar has still seen a slight increase, reflecting investors' preference to hold positions and wait for clearer prospects.

Matrixport stated in the latest issue of the "Matrix on Target Weekly Report" that the results of the latest FOMC meeting were largely in line with market expectations, but the dot plot did not provide clear guidance on the future policy path, which increased market uncertainty regarding future pace. However, from the performance of interest rates and asset prices, these uncertainties are still relatively limited in their reflection in current prices.Powell's cautious stance, combined with early signs of a weakening labor market, indicates that the current macro environment is different from the beginning of the year. The report pointed out that, against this backdrop, Bitcoin has for the first time fallen below a key long-term trend line in this bull market, and its price movement pattern bears similarities to the market rhythms observed before and after previous midterm elections.Despite recent discussions about the "Federal Reserve restarting balance sheet expansion" gaining traction, overall liquidity in the cryptocurrency market remains tight, retail trading activity has not yet shown a significant rebound, and political factors may still not be fully priced into market sentiment and trading behavior.Matrixport believes that under the interplay of multiple factors, the market is transitioning from a single trend to a more complex structure. In this phase, the importance of position management and risk control has significantly increased. The report maintains its previous judgment that even if the current situation is not defined as a bear market, there is still a high probability that this consolidation phase will continue.

According to Jinshi reports, the Guolian Minsheng Macro Research Report stated that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and the dot plot did not show a clear "hawkish" tendency. Powell announced the repurchase of short-term bonds and continued the rhetoric of interest rate cuts, indicating that the Federal Reserve will make decisions based on economic data at each meeting, and monetary policy is not set on a fixed path.After the meeting, U.S. stocks and precious metals surged, while the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields weakened. In the first half of next year, the Federal Reserve will enter a wait-and-see period, with a noticeable slowdown in pace.

According to Jinshi reports, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari stated that he does not support the Fed's last rate cut decision, but remains cautious about the best course of action for the December meeting. He pointed out that the fundamental resilience of economic activity is stronger than expected and believes the Fed should pause rate cuts at the October meeting. Regarding the upcoming December rate decision, he mentioned that he could provide reasons for either a rate cut or keeping it unchanged based on the data.

ChainCatcher news, ATFX Global Markets Chief Market Analyst Nick Twidale stated that uncertainty may ultimately be bearish for the yen. Despite the emergence of safe-haven buying, the results met expectations, triggering a pullback. The greater risk lies in subsequent developments, as the stock market is expected to face sell-offs due to uncertainty.If Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba ultimately resigns, the yen may weaken further. In the short term, the Bank of Japan will maintain a wait-and-see approach and continue to observe data until the future policy direction becomes clear.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the key points of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes are as follows:How likely is a rate cut in July: How much support will Waller and Bowman, appointed by Trump 1.0, receive? Both have indicated they will consider a rate cut at the July meeting, and the impact of tariffs on prices may be temporary.The wait-and-see period ends in summer, with a possible rate cut in September: The meeting minutes may suggest that "the trajectory of interest rates will depend on the data released in June, July, and August," and the "wait-and-see" period may end by late summer. The minutes may indicate that the committee expects to obtain the necessary data for a rate cut decision before the end of summer. If conditions meet expectations, this will strengthen market expectations for a rate cut in September.Lowering the threshold for rate cuts: The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes may read more dovishly. At the June meeting, Powell leaned towards using neutral language, but the minutes may better reflect what Powell did not explicitly state: the threshold for rate cuts is decreasing.Clues of internal disagreement: Among the 19 officials in June, 7 believed that no rate cuts were needed this year, 2 expected one rate cut, 8 believed two rate cuts were necessary, and 2 anticipated three rate cuts. Analysts will look for clues that led to this disagreement. What supports the views of the 7 Federal Reserve officials who believe there will be no rate cuts at all in 2025?Concerns about the dual mandate: Previously, the Federal Reserve's economic forecasts indicated that the pace of price increases would accelerate for the remainder of this year, but in 2026, even if rates are expected to decline, the pace of price increases will again decrease. Additionally, there is concern about whether there are serious worries regarding the strength of the labor market.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data reports, the non-farm employment data shows that the U.S. economy added jobs significantly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined, leading to temporary pressure on gold in the previous trading day.However, XS.com analyst Linh Tran stated in a report that this report does not indicate an overheating economy, but rather shows a relatively stable growth rate. Tran mentioned that this is not enough to force the Federal Reserve to reconsider its wait-and-see stance on monetary policy, which is also the reason why gold prices did not decline further.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data, Deutsche Bank researcher Rainer Guntermann stated in a report that the U.S. inflation data released on Wednesday should confirm the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see attitude. Guntermann said, "This data will reinforce the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance ahead of next week's policy decision, as the impact of the current tariff increases remains limited." According to LSEG data, the money market has fully priced in the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates on June 18. They also expect the likelihood of a rate cut in September to exceed 50%.

ChainCatcher news, Nick Timiraos, a reporter for the Wall Street Journal known as the "Fed's mouthpiece," stated that Trump's tariff policy is being implemented in a chaotic manner, putting the Federal Reserve in a dilemma: should it respond to economic recession or to stagflation? This week, the Federal Reserve officials' two-day policy meeting will focus on how to communicate cautiously amid such difficult trade-offs.Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues may continue to take a wait-and-see approach, refraining from cutting interest rates for now, while planning how to fine-tune this strategy. This "strategic patience" reflects the Federal Reserve officials' unwillingness to give up their determination to combat inflation too early.The challenges currently facing the Federal Reserve can be likened to a goalkeeper's dilemma: should they "dive to the right"—maintaining interest rates to curb inflation, or "dive to the left"—cutting rates to address slowing economic growth? "We will make a judgment that is undoubtedly very difficult," Powell said last month.If the Federal Reserve acts too early and tries to implement stimulus measures before the economic slowdown, it may exacerbate short-term inflationary pressures caused by tariffs or shortages of goods."This will not be a cycle where the Fed cuts rates early because it predicts an economic slowdown. They need to see signs of slowing in the actual data, especially in the labor market," said Richard Clarida, who served as Powell's deputy for three years.

ChainCatcher news, QCP released its daily market observation stating that after a week of tariff edge policies, risk assets have begun to stabilize, breaking free from barriers that could have dealt a heavy blow to Sino-U.S. trade. The U.S. has imposed tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese imports, while China retaliated with tariffs of 125%, escalating to a level where the market is no longer surprised by further intensification. The enormous scale of these tariffs makes them more symbolic than market-driven factors, contrasting sharply with the panic triggered in the early days of "Liberation Day."After Friday's close, the Trump administration quietly exempted the latest tariffs on smartphones, computers, and chips. Despite the ongoing stalemate, risk assets are pricing in optimistic sentiment, even as the U.S. seems to be negotiating not only with China but also with the bond market and itself.In the crypto market, Bitcoin's risk reversal remains biased towards bearish options until June, indicating that the market still appears somewhat cautious in the short term. However, long-term sentiment is becoming more positive. On Saturday, we observed aggressive buying of 800 contracts of BTC-27MAR26-100k-C. Bitcoin continues to consolidate in the $80,000 to $90,000 range, possibly continuing to trade sideways while adopting a "wait and see" strategy regarding the tariff situation.

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler stated early Thursday that it is appropriate to maintain the current interest rate level until the risks of rising inflation subside. In her prepared remarks, she pointed out that changes in government policy, the recent stagnation in the cooling of inflation, and rising inflation expectations are key reasons for maintaining policy patience."As long as the risks of rising inflation persist, while economic activity and employment remain stable, I will support maintaining the current policy rate." Although the theoretical impact of a one-time tariff on inflation should be temporary, if it affects multiple areas of the economy and further raises inflation expectations, its impact may be more lasting.Data shows that inflation levels have improved little recently since reaching a 40-year high in 2022. A University of Michigan survey indicated that long-term consumer inflation expectations rose to a 32-year high in March. Kugler emphasized the importance of stabilizing inflation expectations, noting that both short-term and long-term inflation expectations have risen recently.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital analysts point out that this week could be a historic milestone as the White House will hold the first-ever crypto summit. However, without any specific executive orders, funding commitments, or congressional support, the market remains in a wait-and-see mode. Crypto investors may view the summit as an asymmetric event, and it remains to be seen whether it will serve as an unexpected catalyst for a price surge or reveal the vulnerabilities of cryptocurrencies and trigger a deeper sell-off.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, "Fed's mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos: Philadelphia Fed President Harker stated in the December meeting that he is "in a wait-and-see mode" regarding whether there will be one or two rate cuts in 2025.Currently, this is indeed a difficult question to predict. Forecasting is very challenging, with a lot of uncertainty.

ChainCatcher news, "Fed's mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that the Federal Reserve has pressed the pause button on interest rate cuts and has entered a new wait-and-see phase, as it tries to decide whether to lower rates from the recent twenty-year high and by how much.Before deciding to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve had cut rates three times in a row since September, when the rate was around 5.3%. The policy statement released at the end of the two-day meeting made only minor adjustments. The statement indicated that they are satisfied with their interest rate stance amid an economic situation where inflation remains slightly above target and the labor market is stable. (Jin Shi)

According to ChainCatcher news reported by The Block, Dragonfly general partner Rob Hadick stated that cryptocurrency venture capital is expected to grow significantly by 2025, mainly benefiting from improvements in the U.S. regulatory environment, continuous appreciation of token prices, and increased institutional funding.Dragonfly will focus on investing in areas with mature product-market fit, including decentralized finance (DeFi), scaling platforms, centralized finance (CeFi), and stablecoin payments.Regarding emerging fields such as crypto AI and DePIN, Hadick believes they are still in the "experimental stage." He also anticipates that investments in areas like security, tokenization, and cross-chain interoperability may decrease, while decentralized social media faces challenges due to scalability and product fit issues.

ChainCatcher news, DeFiance Capital founder and CEO Arthur Cheong posted on social media, "Many investors are still taking a wait-and-see approach to DeFi, believing that the growth of DeFi is not as fast/strong as other areas (such as meme coins or AI).However, most mechanisms of DeFi are actually built with reflexivity in the protocols.Quite a few DeFi tokens have risen 5 times from the lows in September, with sufficient liquidity for anyone to invest large amounts.I genuinely believe we are just getting started, and the upcoming trend may rise, and we are waiting to increase our positions during the pullbacks."