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According to on-chain data analysis platform Glassnode, the current consumer confidence index has hit a historic low, yet the stock market continues to reach new highs. Funds are accelerating from cash into stocks, AI, and commodities, while Bitcoin has been significantly overlooked in this round of rotation.On-chain data shows that the heavy buy order support wall formed below the price has been continuously fading since June, and the bottom support structure is clearly thinning.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on the X platform that the inflow of XRP whale funds on the Binance platform has recently seen a significant decline, dropping to the lowest level since 2021 based on a 3-month average.Data shows that the current inflow of XRP whales to Binance is approximately $61 million, a substantial decrease compared to previous levels. In contrast, this metric reached $456 million in January 2025 and $355 million in October 2025, with the current level being about 6 to 8 times lower than before.Although XRP has been struggling to maintain the critical $1 price level recently, the inflow behavior of whale funds that previously preferred to conduct large transactions through Binance is decreasing. However, the net inflow of XRP remains positive at around $18.8 million, indicating that inflow funds still temporarily dominate.Darkfost pointed out that this trend is similar across the entire crypto market, with overall trading volume and fund inflows declining, which may reflect that selling pressure is easing, but new demand in the market has not yet shown a significant rebound. The cooling of whale trading activity is a positive signal for XRP, but it is still insufficient to confirm that the market has reversed, and it is too early to determine if XRP is starting a new upward trend.

Trader Murphy (@Murphychen888) posted on the X platform that the realized price for Bitcoin short-term holders (holding period < 3m) is currently about $67,900. Since June 20, BTC has been continuously suppressed after rebounding close to this cost line, and it has been nearly 2 months now. Meanwhile, the slope of this cost curve has approached zero, indicating that the related chip turnover activity continues to decline.Analysis points out that a similar situation occurred at the end of the bear markets in 2018 and 2022, when BTC was suppressed by the < 3m realized price for about 3 consecutive months, followed by severe fluctuations due to the BCH hash war and the FTX incident, respectively. Continuous suppression by this cost line may reflect that the market is in a structurally weak equilibrium state, and any external force could break this weak equilibrium.

According to ChainCatcher news, analysis from 10x Research suggests that Bitcoin may be decoupling from its correlation with the S&P 500. If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in September due to weak summer employment, Bitcoin is expected to become a major beneficiary alongside gold. The analysis states that after the FOMC meeting at the end of July 2026, bond traders were once convinced that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in September, with the market pricing in two rate hikes before the end of the year. However, the institution believes that four voters who leaned towards maintaining interest rates in July suddenly shifted to a higher threshold for rate hikes within six weeks.More importantly, seasonal factors play a role; historically, the labor market has performed poorly in the summer, which has previously driven rate cuts in September 2024 and September 2025. With the World Cup ending, similar employment weakness may force bond market traders to reassess their rate hike expectations, at which point gold and Bitcoin are expected to benefit.

Wintermute released a market update indicating that the U.S. non-farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000 in July, significantly weaker than market expectations, leading to a drop in September rate hike expectations from 55% to 40%, and driving a broad rebound in risk assets.Gold led the gains, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, Bitcoin, and altcoins generally rising, while Brent crude oil fell by 6.85%.

According to The Block, BlackRock's head of digital assets, Robert Mitchnick, stated that there has been a noticeable but subtle improvement in Bitcoin market sentiment over the past month, and the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks is weakening, which is healthy for the argument of Bitcoin as a portfolio diversification tool and tail risk hedge.He pointed out that Bitcoin significantly outperformed during the major pullback in the AI sector in July, which is a manifestation of this decoupling. Although Bitcoin has fallen nearly 30% this year and about 50% from a year ago, ETF investors continue to buy—last week, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded an inflow of $853.5 million, marking the best weekly performance since mid-April, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing $693.7 million (over 80%) and Fidelity's FBTC contributing $116.4 million. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas noted that after the Coldcard vulnerability was exposed, multiple funds recorded net inflows daily, "it's hard not to see it as a causal relationship."

The South African National Treasury and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) have released a draft regulation for cross-border transfers of crypto assets. Farzam Ehsani, co-founder and CEO of the crypto asset trading platform VALR, stated that unless key terms are significantly modified, the relevant framework could harm the domestic digital asset industry and drive funds overseas.The draft allows individual residents to transfer crypto assets abroad within the existing foreign exchange limits but restricts companies from engaging in cross-border crypto asset transactions and categorizes some deposits from private non-custodial wallets as unacceptable transfers for local crypto asset service providers (CASP). Ehsani believes this could prompt businesses and retail investors to turn to overseas platforms.Ehsani pointed out that prohibiting regulated entities from processing legitimate business transactions, especially cross-border stablecoin payments, could push transactions underground or abroad, thereby undermining the visibility and monitoring capabilities that regulators hope to achieve. The South African National Treasury and SARB have opened a public consultation, with the feedback deadline set for September 30.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Novaque Research, the Federal Reserve voted 9 to 3 on July 29 to maintain the interest rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. However, maintaining the interest rate is different from cutting rates and did not bring new liquidity stimulus, and Bitcoin's internal demand indicators reflect this constraint.Novaque stated that the Coinbase premium index continues to be deeply negative, close to -0.11, indicating that Bitcoin's pricing on Coinbase is weaker than on offshore platforms, pointing to sluggish spot demand in the U.S.; total open interest remains below the 100-day moving average, and CME options exposure has significantly contracted from the peak in the first quarter; exchange reserves have rebounded from the April low to about 2.72 million BTC, indicating an increase in supply that can be sold at any time. It believes that against the backdrop of weak demand in the U.S., simply pausing interest rate hikes can only prevent further tightening and cannot create a favorable environment for price increases, and Bitcoin prices will remain under pressure in the short term.

BIT released a market analysis stating that, from a technical perspective, gold may be in a bottoming phase. The report also pointed out that its views differ from the current market consensus: although the bond market is still factoring in expectations of two rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year, it judges that there may not be any rate hikes this year.

Regarding the EIP proposal submitted by the Ethereum community, Aave founder and CEO Stani Kulechov expressed opposition, stating that the proposal cannot achieve its intended goals and will instead harm Ethereum. He pointed out that the proposal would cap ETH staking rewards at 0% when the staking rate exceeds 50%, making staking rewards unpredictable and potentially unprofitable for many participants. This poses a negative factor for institutional buyers considering establishing ETH positions, as they may turn to other networks with more predictable cash flows, resulting in significant adoption costs.Stani Kulechov further stated that reducing rewards to 0 would make ETH lending strategies fundamentally unfeasible, effectively stifling ETH's lending and yield scenarios. At that point, the only reason to borrow ETH would be to short it; meanwhile, holders of ETH beta and yield may turn to other interest-bearing assets like stablecoins. He mentioned that from a personal perspective, this proposal would undermine the viability of ETH as an asset and limit its potential, hoping that the proposal would not advance. Otherwise, a large number of participants would shift their interest to other networks, emphasizing that Ethereum should not be penalized for its growth.

According to Jinshi, former Bank of Japan committee member Atsushi Takeuchi stated that if there are signs of the yen weakening again, Japan and the United States will "definitely" take joint intervention actions once more. He pointed out that this joint action between the U.S. and Japan was highly effective, and the market has reached a consensus that the yen will not continue to weaken unilaterally.Takeuchi expects that the Japan-U.S. exchange rate may fluctuate in the range of 155 to 162 in the short term.

Glassnode released the report "BTC Market Pulse: Week 32," stating that Bitcoin has recently fallen to around $62,600, with weak spot demand and rising defensive sentiment in the derivatives market. However, increased on-chain activity, confidence among long-term holders, and ETF capital inflows continue to support the market.The report pointed out that Bitcoin previously failed to maintain the rebound after breaking through $66,000 and has now retreated from the $65,000 range. The current price trend reflects a weakening of spot momentum, with sustained net selling pressure and low trading activity keeping the market in a consolidation phase lacking clear breakthrough momentum.In the derivatives market, the overall open interest has decreased, but the funding rate for perpetual contracts has rebounded, and active selling volume has eased. The options market remains defensive, with the 25 Delta skew widening, indicating increased demand for downside protection among investors, while speculative open interest continues to decline. The ETF market has shown improvement, with net inflows and trading volume both rebounding in the past week, indicating that institutional investors are reallocating funds through regulated channels.Regarding on-chain data, Glassnode noted that Bitcoin network activity has significantly increased, with the number of daily active addresses and adjusted transfer volume both breaking through the upper limit of the statistical range, indicating an increase in network usage and economic activity. At the same time, new capital inflows have slightly increased, and capital outflow pressure has eased. In terms of holding structure, the supply ratio of short-term holders to long-term holders remains close to historical lows, showing that long-term investors still maintain strong confidence.However, the overall profitability of the market continues to decline, with the proportion of profitable supply nearing a cyclical low, and investor spending behavior is more defensive, reflecting stop-loss strategies. Glassnode concluded that the current Bitcoin market is in a transitional phase, with stability among long-term holders, increased on-chain activity, and a rebound in ETF demand providing structural support. However, valuation pressure, insufficient spot momentum, and defensive positions in derivatives still limit market risk appetite.

According to X user Rohan Paul, when the OpenAI model breached Hugging Face, Anthropic's Claude 5 refused to assist in the investigation, and Hugging Face ultimately turned to Nvidia's quantized version of GLM 5.2 for emergency response.The user commented that banning open-source models would weaken the defense's capabilities, and this incident confirms the practical value of open-source models in security response.

Slow Mist's Yuxian stated on platform X that in the COLDCARD hardware wallet weak random number security incident, if the mnemonic phrase used a Passphrase, it could avoid this attack.The Passphrase is not the wallet unlock PIN code, but a password specifically set for the mnemonic phrase, and mainstream hardware wallets all support this mechanism.

BIT Official released a weekly report stating that the trading volume in the cryptocurrency market has fallen by 80% from its peak, and has contracted by about 60% from the peak in the fourth quarter of 2025; the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has also dropped by 50%. The report points out that if the trading volume cannot effectively recover, the market will struggle to form a sustained rebound.Despite the market still digesting the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the stalled progress of the CLARITY Act, Bitcoin is currently maintaining a range between $62,000 and $66,000, and BIT Official expects Bitcoin to eventually break upward. The report states that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh has recently adopted a "say less, do less" communication strategy, and the uncertainty of his policy stance is disturbing the market. Walsh has been known for his hawkish stance over the past twenty years, but the market had previously anticipated that he might push for a more dovish monetary policy under Trump's support; if this change materializes, it could be beneficial for Bitcoin.In addition, predictive market data shows that the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law before the end of 2026 is currently only 32%. Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated that the Senate will prioritize other issues, and as the August recess approaches, the remaining legislative window for this bill is further narrowing.

According to Jinshi reports, Apple's Chief Financial Officer stated that the mobile game revenue from the App Store shows signs of "weakness."

According to Jinshi, rare internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve have disturbed market expectations, leading to a softening of the dollar, which in turn boosted basic metals such as copper and aluminum.Meanwhile, the conflict in the Middle East continues, coupled with a bottoming out of aluminum inventories and unusual movements in copper warehouse receipts, basic metals are seeking direction amid macroeconomic games and supply-demand struggles.

According to The Block, Bernstein has lowered Circle's target price from $190 to $140 while maintaining an outperform rating. Analyst Gautam Chhugani stated that the threat posed to Circle by the Open USD Alliance, supported by over 140 institutions including Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe, is lower than market expectations. As of July 28, Circle's closing price was $64.32.The end-of-quarter supply of USDC for the second quarter was approximately $73 billion, down from $77 billion in the first quarter, with the average supply rising to about $76 billion. The average SOFR for the second quarter decreased to 3.62%, the reserve return rate fell to 3.46%, and reserve income rose to approximately $655 million. The USDC balance on Hyperliquid has increased from $5 billion in mid-May to over $6 billion, generating about $210 million in annualized gross reserve income, of which approximately $190 million is directed to the exchange according to the revenue-sharing agreement.Bernstein has reduced its forecast for USDC supply at the end of 2026 by 37% to $83 billion and lowered its 2028 forecast to $170 billion; the adjusted EBITDA forecast for 2026 has been cut by 12% to $602 million, and the earnings per share (EPS) forecast has been lowered from $1.98 to $0.92. However, the firm expects that by 2035, the total supply of stablecoins will reach $4 trillion, with Circle holding about a 30% share. Additionally, Circle received final approval from the OCC in July to establish Circle National Trust.

According to Jinshi reports, HSBC analyst Daragh Maher pointed out in a report that, given the market has digested some interest rate hike expectations, the dollar may weaken if the Federal Reserve announces to keep interest rates unchanged. He stated that to curb the initial decline of the dollar, at least three Federal Reserve members need to vote in favor of an interest rate hike.Maher said, "If the pace of rate hikes is faster than expected, it will force the market to consider whether this is the first rate hike in a series of rate hikes."