weak

According to Axel Adler Jr's monitoring, although the price of Bitcoin has further risen to around $87,000, the market's profit-taking pressure is weaker than in August. During the second round of price increases, profits realized were 19% lower than during the first round, and losses also decreased.At the peak of the first round of increases on August 26, the price of Bitcoin was about $78,600, with profits realized over the past 7 days reaching $9.1 billion; at the peak of the second round on September 24, the price of Bitcoin rose to $84,100, with profits realized over the past 7 days amounting to $7.3 billion, a 19% decrease from the previous round. During the same period, losses realized over the past 7 days dropped from $2.6 billion to $1.5 billion. As of today, Bitcoin's net realized profit over the past 7 days is $4.3 billion.The Short-Term Holder SOPR has remained above 1 since August 20, indicating that the overall Bitcoin transferred by short-term holders is still in profit, but the profit margin has narrowed. At the peak on August 26, the corresponding profit margin for short-term holder SOPR was 2.8%; it dropped to 1.6% at the peak on September 23; and as of today, it has further decreased to 1%. During the pullback of Bitcoin to $76,500 on September 17, the short-term holder SOPR fell to a low of 1.003, with the profit margin for short-term holders transferring Bitcoin narrowing to 0.3%, but it did not fall below 1.

Federal Reserve's Williams stated that the downside risks to achieving full employment have diminished.

Cryptocurrency analyst @AxelAdlerJr posted that after August 19, the number of bitcoins held by long-term holders has decreased for 5 consecutive weeks, but the pace of reduction in the last 30 days has significantly slowed from 105,900 BTC on August 30 to 21,700 BTC on September 20 (nearly five times slower).In addition, the amount of bitcoins held by long-term holders decreased by 47,800 BTC last week. LTH SOPR data shows that most of them were sold at a loss.

On Friday, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as the market expected. After the announcement of the rate hike decision, the Japanese yen weakened against the US dollar and Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin, priced in US dollars, remained basically stable.

According to Gate market data, during the Asian trading session, most Asian currencies weakened. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond surged above 5%, closing at 4.96%. Analysts pointed out that the rise in yields was driven by inflation concerns and high oil prices. The U.S. dollar rose 0.3% against the Japanese yen to 154.82, the U.S. dollar rose 0.45% against the South Korean won to 1,353.14, and the Australian dollar fell 0.15% against the U.S. dollar to 0.7126.

According to Gate market data, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations, Asian currencies generally weakened against the US dollar in the morning session. The market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this week, with the probability rising to 88%.The US dollar rose 0.3% against the South Korean won and the Japanese yen, trading at 1,345.8 and 154.06, respectively; the Australian dollar fell 0.2% against the US dollar, trading at 0.7151.

Huobi HTX will hold a themed debate today at 20:00 titled "The Federal Reserve Cuts Forward Guidance: Regaining Independence or Triggering Market Panic?"The affirmative side representatives Li Qian, Guobao, Wanqu, and yuli will engage in dialogue with the negative side representatives Mr. Mis, Zizi, 0xmeg, and Qingfeng, focusing on the potential impacts of the Federal Reserve's weakening of forward guidance on policy transparency, market expectations, and asset pricing changes, as well as discussing how U.S. stocks, gold, and crypto assets will be repriced.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the demand for Bitcoin in the market has declined again. Although short-term holders are still taking profits, and selling pressure remains stable, apparent demand has turned negative again, indicating that demand has significantly weakened in the past few days.He believes that this change is also reflected in the price structure of Bitcoin, with the current trend tending to weaken. If demand does not recover in the short term, Bitcoin may face further downside risks.

BitMine Chairman Tom Lee stated on CNBC that after Nvidia announced strong performance, its stock price rose, breaking the previous trend where positive earnings reports struggled to drive stock prices, indicating that investors still value the company's fundamentals. Software stocks like Salesforce, CrowdStrike, and Okta also strengthened, reflecting a positive market response to downstream AI transactions, with an overall healthy market reaction.Regarding the weak performance of AI-related stocks such as Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, AMD, and Micron, Tom Lee believes that some investors may have previously underweighted Nvidia and might need to sell other tech stocks to raise funds for increasing their Nvidia holdings. He pointed out that Nvidia's earnings expectations have been significantly raised, but the stock price has not fully caught up, and the price-to-earnings ratio is still contracting, with the current valuation remaining relatively low.Tom Lee also mentioned that data center construction is gradually becoming a political issue in the U.S. midterm elections. Even some Republican-led states and states supporting data center development are beginning to consider pausing related projects, which may be one reason for the recent poor performance of AI infrastructure-related stocks, with more funds shifting towards downstream AI targets.

Bloomberg's chief economist Anna Wong stated that next week's non-farm payroll report may show weakness, with a certain probability of recording negative growth, which will have a critical impact on the Federal Reserve's policy path.She pointed out that if there are two consecutive negative non-farm data, there is no precedent in modern Federal Reserve history for raising interest rates under such circumstances.

Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, abbreviated as Dallas Fed, indicate that tokenized deposits and real-time blockchain transfers may weaken bank liquidity and limit their ability to issue long-term loans. The study was authored by Rosie Levy and Srini Ramaswamy.The research points out that of the $7 trillion in term risk borne by U.S. banks, approximately 80% is supported by the term characteristics of traditional deposits. If the weighted average term of deposits shortens by 10%, the banking system's term transformation capacity will decrease by about $580 billion, potentially increasing liquidity risk and pressure for fund outflows. Chris Turner, co-founder of Kula, stated that the speed of token transfers does not equate to the legal settlement of underlying financial claims. Tokens can be transferred through the blockchain network in seconds, but payments, ownership, and legal claims still rely on banks, custodians, clearing systems, and regulatory registries to complete the settlement.

Market expectations for the Bank of Japan tightening monetary policy are heating up, with weak demand for Japan's two-year government bond auction, the bid-to-cover ratio at 2.97, lower than last time's 3.63 and the past 12 months' average of 3.74. The tail difference is 0.034, higher than last month's 0.007, marking the weakest since 2016. The government led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi supports an interest rate hike as early as September, with overnight index swaps indicating a probability of about 84% for a rate hike in September.

CryptoQuant published an analysis stating that the Bitcoin Coinbase premium index rebounded to 0 on August 26 after being negative for 14 consecutive days. However, this rebound was accompanied by large-scale profit-taking: last week, realized profits averaged $933 million, a week-on-week increase of 824%; exchange inflows for 1 to 3-month tokens increased by 280%, and daily inflows to wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC reached 1,136 BTC (+235%).There are significant differences in exchange traffic: Binance had a net inflow averaging +2,184 BTC, while the overall exchange net outflow was -2,372 BTC, with Coinbase experiencing a single-day outflow of 3,499 BTC coinciding with the day the premium returned to zero. Long liquidations increased by 469%, far exceeding the 15% for short liquidations, and stablecoins continued to flow out, indicating that buying support is weakening. Analysts point out that history shows that under this structure, the probability of range-bound fluctuations or shallow corrections is higher than direct increases, and sustained upward movement requires the premium to remain above zero and stablecoin net inflows to turn positive; currently, only the first condition is met.

Zhao Changpeng stated at the "Bitcoin Asia 2026" conference in Hong Kong that Bitcoin itself does not weaken or strengthen government power; what truly matters is the choices made by the government. Historically, weak governments have sometimes led to better economic performance. For example, the U.S. government is relatively weak, yet it has created one of the strongest economies in the world; after the current SEC chairman relinquished some regulatory power, the industry actually experienced growth, while former chairman Gary Gensler's attempts to control everything stifled industry growth.He mentioned that Bitcoin, as a decentralized technology, allows individuals to have more sovereignty, but its privacy design has flaws, and on-chain transactions can be easily tracked; governments can choose whether to utilize these characteristics. For instance, declaring Bitcoin ownership illegal or imposing a 36% tax on every transaction would stifle industry development. The government may seem to have significant power, but a zero tax rate still results in zero revenue, while taxing a trillion-dollar market at 6% would yield substantial income.He also noted that most governments have relatively recognized Bitcoin, but many countries still lack a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies. Among government officials, those who understand Bitcoin remain a minority, and in some countries, the older generation's dominance leads to a more conservative attitude. However, he does feel that a shift is occurring, despite some still holding the biased view that Bitcoin is primarily used by drug lords.

Bitcoin Magazine cites a report from FOX Business stating that Bitcoin could become a tool to hedge against the weakening dollar. Related comments point out that we just need to wait for it to start rising; once it kicks off and re-enters mainstream discussion, the market demand for it will increase.The report also mentions that Bitcoin has risen by 20%. This viewpoint links Bitcoin's performance with the dollar's trend and mainstream market attention.

The Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that participants believe the labor market conditions are stable and supply and demand are balanced. Some participants pointed out that signs of weakness in the labor market still exist, including low employment rates and high long-term unemployment rates.The demand for technical workers in AI-related industries is strong, and wages have risen significantly. Overall nominal wage growth is moderate, but there are upward risks for future wage growth.

Due to investors remaining cautious before the release of the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes, the dollar weakened.Recently, weak U.S. labor market data and moderate inflation data have led the market to lower its expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve.The dollar index DXY fell by as much as 0.2% to 99.472.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted that retail demand for Bitcoin is increasing and is close to the highest level in the past two years. Historical data shows a clear correlation between the growth of retail demand and local peaks in Bitcoin prices.Currently, the rebound of Bitcoin is weak, but retail demand has surged sharply. The analyst believes this may reflect the "impatience" of this group— they have become more sensitive to small fluctuations in BTC.

The $57,000 price level for Bitcoin is a key liquidation point for leveraged long positions. If liquidation is triggered, the weak liquidity situation may amplify the sell-off driven by liquidation.Despite the downside risks, Bitcoin's price shows resilience, and the potential head and shoulders bottom pattern keeps the bullish logic intact.