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Analyst Markus Thielen stated that the Coinbase Bitcoin premium has recently rebounded to its highest level since 2025, indicating an improvement in buying activity in the U.S. market, with some institutional funds possibly re-engaging.Data shows that the current BTC price on the Coinbase platform remains consistently higher than on other exchanges, reflecting signs of a warming demand side. Previously, the premium had turned into a discount, which was interpreted by the market as weak sentiment; now that it has re-entered the premium range, it may indicate that the demand side is gradually stabilizing. Additionally, as of mid-April, Bitcoin ETFs continue to maintain a monthly net inflow trend, and if this continues, it may further strengthen the signal of a warming financial environment.

According to Jinshi reports, analysts at First Citizens Bank stated in a report that the U.S. CPI data released on Friday is expected to reflect the transmission of the Iranian energy shock for the first time significantly. Driven by soaring energy costs, overall inflation will accelerate. The head of market and economic research at the bank pointed out that although core inflation is affected more mildly, the Federal Reserve will "ignore" the surge in energy-driven inflation, which will reinforce the Fed's long-standing stance of inaction and closely link potential rate cuts to the normalization of energy prices.

CZ recalls in his new book that around 2015, under the persuasion of friends, he gradually quit high-frequency social activities such as poker and golf, and completely withdrew from the related social circles. Subsequently, he gradually formed a work style centered on "high efficiency," which included shortening meeting durations, reducing ineffective communication, and focusing on quickly executing projects. This transformation during this phase became an important turning point in CZ's personal and career development, and it has long influenced his subsequent management and operational style.CZ repeatedly mentions in his new book that "moderately above-average success is the most dangerous," because after achieving some small successes, one can easily become complacent. On the surface, it may seem like he is doing better than many around him, but only he knows: he hasn't really given his all.

According to a report by Jinshi, Derek Halpenny, a foreign exchange analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Bank, stated that the dollar's response to the surge in energy prices has been mild, highlighting that the current foundation of the U.S. economy is weaker compared to the inflation shock in 2022. He pointed out that since the outbreak of the conflict, although oil prices have risen nearly 60%, the dollar index has only strengthened by about 2.5%. The current price shock may have a greater impact on the U.S. economy than expected, undermining business confidence and employment.

According to Jinshi reports, Huatai Securities believes that the better-than-expected rebound in March's non-farm data shows the resilience of the U.S. labor market. However, under the conflict in the Middle East, the impact of high oil prices on inflation expectations is more critical for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.Recently, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has intensified, and the oil supply gap caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up oil prices and inflation expectations. Inflation is currently the core variable of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Nvidia-backed startup Reflection is in talks to raise $2.5 billion. This funding will bring the company's valuation to $25 billion.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the higher GDP forecast reflects confidence in productivity.

"Fed's mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that the content not mentioned in this Federal Reserve meeting minutes is more worthy of attention. He pointed out that in several meetings last year until December, staff predicted that the inflation rate would fall to 2% by 2027, but the December minutes pushed the timeline back to 2028.In the January meeting minutes, there was no specific mention of when the inflation rate would reach 2%, only indicating that the values were "slightly higher and balanced" compared to the December forecast, and it was expected that the impact of tariffs would end after mid-year, with inflation returning to the previous downward trend. The previous mention of "reaching 2% by 2028" did not reappear.Nick Timiraos hinted that this reflects a weakening confidence from the Federal Reserve regarding the inflation path, influenced by tight resource utilization and rising import prices. The official minutes confirmed a slightly higher forecast than in December but did not specify a return year, highlighting policy uncertainty.

According to The Block, research firm Bernstein analyzed that the stock price of IREN, a Bitcoin mining company transitioning to AI computing services, fell sharply after releasing its financial report. The main reason was market disappointment over the lack of new large AI partnership announcements, rather than a deterioration in fundamentals.The company's stock price dropped about 18% after the earnings report, to approximately $39.79. Bernstein analysts believe that the volatility of Bitcoin-related earnings is no longer the core investment logic for IREN, and investors are more focused on its progress in transitioning to AI cloud infrastructure. Although IREN's Bitcoin mining revenue decreased quarter-over-quarter this quarter, its AI cloud revenue more than doubled compared to the previous quarter. The company has secured approximately $2.3 billion in annual recurring revenue contracts for AI cloud services and expects this to grow to $3.4 billion by the fourth quarter of 2026, equivalent to deploying about 140,000 GPUs.Bernstein maintains an "outperform" rating on IREN with a target price of $125, viewing this decline as a reset of expectations rather than a signal of deteriorating execution capability.

According to Jin Shi reports, Morgan Stanley stated in a report that under the leadership of Powell, any substantial changes are more likely to gradually manifest through balance sheet policy rather than interest rates. Reducing the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet means lowering banks' demand for reserves, a process that takes time and also requires adjustments to the regulatory framework.Morgan Stanley added that a Federal Reserve with a smaller "presence" should drive the yield curve to steepen.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the slowdown in job growth reflects a decline in the labor force, although labor demand has also noticeably weakened.

According to the BofA Global Fund Manager Survey data, the current cash holdings of fund managers have dropped to a historic low of 3.2%, reflecting an extreme bullish sentiment among investors towards risk assets.

According to Jinshi reports, ECB board member Panetta stated that the U.S. initiatives to promote digital finance reflect its efforts to support the demand for the dollar.

According to the market analysis weekly report released by Glassnode on Monday, the fund flow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has sharply reversed, showing strong capital inflows, indicating that institutions are re-accumulating positions.Although ETF trading volume has risen accordingly, the increase in holder profits also brings short-term profit-taking risks. Bitcoin has retreated from a recent high of $98,000 to just over $90,000, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) declining but still above neutral levels, indicating it is in a consolidation phase rather than a trend deterioration phase.Spot trading volume has risen moderately, and the net buying and selling imbalance has broken through the upper limit of the statistical range, showing a significant reduction in selling pressure, but demand still appears weak. The slight increase in open interest in futures reflects cautious rebuilding of speculative activity, while the sharp drop in funding rates indicates a decrease in urgency among bulls.The options market continues to price in higher uncertainty, with ongoing demand for downside protection. On-chain activity has stabilized, with the number of active addresses and transfer volumes showing improvement trends, and network fees have risen slightly. The supply from short-term holders remains high, keeping the market sensitive to price fluctuations.Overall, Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase, but the strengthening buying power and the return of institutional interest are gradually pushing the market structure towards a more constructive direction.

Decentralized on-chain options, perpetual contracts, and structured product protocol Derive.xyz traders believe that the probability of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 is 30%. Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive.xyz, stated, "The options market shows a clear downward skew, with a 30% chance of Bitcoin dropping below $80,000, while the probability of breaking above $120,000 is only 19%."Recently, due to ten countries opposing the U.S. takeover plan for Greenland, Trump threatened to impose a 10% tariff on goods imported from these ten European countries, reigniting tariff concerns, which led Bitcoin to drop from $95,000 to $91,000.Dawson noted that geopolitical tensions could lead to a deeper decline. "The escalation of geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Europe (especially regarding the Greenland dispute) increases the systemic risk of the market returning to a high-volatility environment, a dynamic that has not yet been fully reflected in current spot prices." He explained that the options skew indicator, which measures the difference in prices between call and put options, remains in negative territory, suggesting short-term downside concerns.Activities on centralized derivatives platforms like Deribit also show the same signals. On both the Derive and Deribit platforms, open interest in put options with strike prices between $75,000 and $80,000 is highly concentrated, reflecting market expectations that prices may dip into the mid-$75,000 range.