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According to analyst Darkfost's data, after the news of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, Bitcoin saw an active buying volume of $2.7 billion (taker orders) in the Binance derivatives market within two hours.Analysts pointed out that the easing of geopolitical events pushed the price of Bitcoin up to around $71,700, indicating that investors are optimistic about risk assets in the short term, but are still influenced by subsequent geopolitical developments.

According to Cointelegraph, on-chain data and derivatives market indicators show that Ethereum buying power is returning, but analysts warn that bulls must defend the $2000 support level.CryptoQuant data shows that the net buying volume of Ethereum has remained positive since March 6, peaking at $140 million on March 16 and currently maintaining at $104 million. Net buying volume is an indicator of the imbalance between aggressive buyers and sellers in the derivatives market. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated, "This is the first time we have observed such a mechanism shift in the Ethereum derivatives market since the last bear market." He added that if this trend continues and the spot market and ETFs begin to follow suit, Ethereum is expected to restart its upward trend.In terms of futures open interest, the current position is 6.4 million ETH, close to the historical high of 7.8 million ETH set in July 2025, having gradually recovered from a low of 5 million ETH last October. The flow of funds into spot Ethereum ETFs also turned positive on Monday, with a net inflow of $120 million, the highest single-day net inflow since mid-March.On the price front, analyst Ted Pillows stated, "As long as the $2000 support level holds, Ethereum is likely to attack again; if it falls below this level, a new low for the year may follow." Glassnode's cost basis distribution data shows that over 3.5 million ETH have a holding cost concentrated around $2000; if this area is breached, the secondary support lies between $1750 and $1800, where approximately 1.36 million ETH were accumulated. If the price further breaks below the aforementioned support, the measured target of the symmetrical triangle points to $1460, about 30% lower than the current price.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that Musk is likely to use SPCX as the stock code for the SpaceX IPO, which was previously held by Matt Tuttle, but the related ETF has undergone a code change.Eric Balchunas pointed out that the Bloomberg ETF team had predicted this situation as early as a report last December, and the discovery of the stock code "SPCX" for the SpaceX IPO was proposed by Roundhill Investments co-founder Will Hershey, who had previously "given" the META code to Mark Zuckerberg, referring to it as a "mutual understanding among peers."

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that, according to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) listing announcement, the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin exchange-traded fund will trade under the ticker "MBST".

Bloomberg ETF senior analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that American "Baby Boomer" investors have quietly invested about $500 million into Bitcoin spot ETFs amid a challenging market environment and frequent macroeconomic headwinds, which has somewhat filled the funding gap since the beginning of the year.However, data shows that the overall net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs is still slightly negative year-to-date, indicating that the market as a whole remains in a wait-and-see stance. The recent round of capital inflow demonstrates some traditional capital's long-term allocation interest in Bitcoin ETFs.

Cryptocurrency market analyst Axel posted a report on social media stating that the current pullback of Bitcoin is significantly smaller than during the periods of 2017-18 (-64.3%) and 2021-22, and is closer to the moderate scenario of 2013-15. However, this does not confirm that a bottom has been formed. The current Bitcoin price is slightly above 1.25 times the realized price ($67,675), and the market is in a critical valuation range.As long as this range can be maintained, or if the price can quickly recover after a brief drop below it, then the market structure remains neutral. If it continues to break below this support level, it is likely to drop to the range of $54,140 near the realized price, around $54,000 to $58,000.

Analysts at First Abu Dhabi Bank stated in a report that the strength of oil prices has already become, and will continue to be (at least in the short term), a more structural driver of inflationary pressures. The analysts pointed out that inflationary pressures have led to a sell-off in interest rates as expectations for central bank rate cuts have faded. Previously, the market expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates two to three times this year, but those expectations have been ruled out.LSEG data shows that the money market currently expects the U.S. policy rate to remain largely unchanged in 2026, with a very slight tightening bias. The market has even factored in a more hawkish rate hike scenario for the European Central Bank and the Bank of England by the end of this year, with increases of 74 basis points and 56 basis points, respectively, "which is largely a result of imported energy inflation from Europe."

According to The Defiant, independent on-chain analyst Andrey Sergeenkov's latest research found that 84.1% of traders on Polymarket are in a losing position.The report analyzed 2.5 million wallet addresses, and Sergeenkov discovered that over the past year, only 2% of traders on the platform have accumulated profits exceeding $1,000, while only 0.033% (i.e., 840 addresses) of traders have made profits of $100,000 on the Polymarket platform."Most traders just come to trade for a while and then leave," the report concluded. The research found that the probability of making $5,000 in profit per month decreases month by month. Among 6,600 traders who averaged over $5,000 in monthly profits, only 2.6% remained active for more than a year.

According to statistics from DeFi analysts, affected by the bear market, 21 cryptocurrency projects have recently announced closures or significant reductions in services, covering the fields of DeFi, NFT, wallets, and gaming.Among them, Leap Wallet will completely shut down all products on May 28, and users need to migrate their assets to Keplr or MetaMask as soon as possible. Magic Eden has decided to close ME Wallet and focus on the NFT market and infrastructure on Solana, with the wallet ceasing operations on May 1. Fantasy Top plans to take non-core functions offline in mid-June to concentrate resources on prediction market games.In the DeFi sector, Angle Protocol has stopped its stablecoin business due to reduced activity and increased competition, while ZeroLend and Polynomial Finance have scaled back services due to insufficient liquidity and low trading volume. The NFT platforms Nifty Gateway and Sound.xyz have closed some operations due to market changes and strategic adjustments.In addition, gaming projects like Runiverse and Pixiland Social have paused blockchain-related operations due to high development costs and regulatory uncertainties, while projects like Dmail, Yupp AI, and DataHaven have been forced to exit due to funding issues or market changes.Analysts believe that this industry reshuffle is a necessary reconfiguration of the market, and Web3 projects that prioritize actual utility and sustainable economic models will be more competitive in the future.

This morning, 60,000 ETH were redeemed from Ethereum staking and transferred to Coinbase. According to analysis by Yu Jin, the owner of this ETH is Andrew Keys, co-founder of DARMA Capital, and this ETH has been staked for nearly 5 years.In recent days, these ETH have been largely redeemed and aggregated, then transferred to Coinbase. During the nearly 5 years of staking, these ETH earned approximately 18% in coin-based returns (16,000 ETH, worth 34.2 million USD).

According to Crypto In America, the core disagreement between the U.S. cryptocurrency and banking industries regarding the stablecoin yield mechanism may be close to resolution. Several informed sources have revealed that both sides have initiated a new round of communication regarding the latest compromise plan. Although the details have not been disclosed, the overall expectation is becoming optimistic.A previous draft pushed by U.S. senators had sparked dissatisfaction in the industry, with institutions such as Coinbase and Stripe expressing concerns. The market is focused on the "Clarity Act," which is expected to enter the committee review stage later this month. If the yield issue is alleviated, the legislative focus will shift to remaining topics such as DeFi, tokenization, and token classification.In addition, a White House research report on stablecoin yields and their impact on the banking system has yet to be released. It is said that the overall conclusion of the study leans towards supporting the cryptocurrency industry, and the reason for the delay in publication remains unclear.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, about 1 hour ago, Resolv Labs destroyed 36.73 million USR held by the hacker through a contract upgrade.The hacker minted 80 million USR through a minting vulnerability without collateral, of which approximately 34 million USR were sold off by the hacker for 11,409 ETH (24.48 million USD) stored at the address 0x8ED...81C. Additionally, about 46 million USR were destroyed from the hacker's address by the Resolv project team through a contract upgrade. The actual loss from this vulnerability exploitation incident for Resolv is 34 million USD.

According to CoinDesk, with the expectation of a potential ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran boosting market risk appetite, it is reported that the ceasefire plan may take effect on Monday and lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin's rise has driven the overall cryptocurrency market stronger, with mainstream assets like Ethereum and Solana also rising in tandem.The derivatives market is also showing bullish signals, with improvements in Bitcoin futures structure and a continued decline in 30-day implied volatility, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 0.8%, reinforcing the risk-on atmosphere. However, analysts point out that there is still uncertainty in the market rebound.Recent ceasefire news has been denied or debunked by Iran multiple times, and if a similar situation occurs again, the market may quickly reverse. Furthermore, even if an agreement is reached, there are still doubts about its binding nature on Israel, which may limit the sustainability of risk appetite. Overall, while Bitcoin has upward potential, macro variables remain key constraints.

Analyst Alicharts updates multiple long-term bottom indicator signals for Bitcoin to reference Bitcoin's bottom points.Key support levels include around $63,111 shown by URPD, the trend line guarding for nearly 10 years at $56,000-$60,000, the structural bottom of CVDD at $47,960, and the extreme pain zone of MVRV at $43,647. Alicharts suggests that investors diversify funds into areas between $63,000 and $36,000, rather than precisely predicting a single bottom. Currently, the market is mostly in a wait-and-see or distribution phase, suitable for macro rebound layouts.

According to Jin Shi reports, Middle East issue scholar Mohammad Ali Shabani stated in an interview that he believes U.S. President Trump is ready to fulfill his threat to strike Iran's critical infrastructure, which poses a serious risk of escalating the regional situation. Iran, on the other hand, has conveyed its signal of "not backing down" to the U.S. by launching attacks on Kuwaiti infrastructure. He added, "The current situation is somewhat similar to a standoff, with neither side able to exit gracefully. In this context, I believe the possibility of a serious escalation in the region within the next 24 hours is very high."

On-chain analyst Murphy stated that the average cost of all loss-making Bitcoin chips has currently fallen below $100,000, now at only $93,600. This means that under the current chip structure, BTC will reach the market average breakeven point when it rises back to $93,000. During the two rapid declines at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, a large number of high-position trapped chips chose to cut losses and exit, lowering the average cost of overall floating loss chips.It is also observed that the average cost of loss-making chips has a deviation coefficient of 1.4 compared to the current 30-day average price of BTC, while in the past three bear market bottoms, the deviation coefficient has exceeded 2 at least. When the average deviation coefficient is greater than or equal to 2, it indicates that the market has entered an absolute bottom range, at which point the price of BTC is less than 50% of the average cost of loss-making chips. To meet this condition, the lowest point of BTC in this round would need to drop to $46,800, but historical patterns may not always hold true. This bear market may be less painful than any previous bear market. According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the market related to whether Bitcoin will reach $60,000 or $80,000 first on Polymarket, the probability of reaching $60,000 first is 68%, while the probability of reaching $80,000 first is 32%.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart stated that as market demand continues to expand, the future assets under management (AUM) of Bitcoin spot ETFs are expected to surpass those of gold ETFs.Seyffart pointed out that Bitcoin has a more diverse role in investment portfolios, being viewed as "digital gold," a store of value, and possessing attributes such as asset allocation diversification, liquidity trading, and growth-oriented risk assets, while the investment logic for gold is relatively singular. In terms of capital flows, there has been a noticeable outflow from U.S. gold ETFs recently, with a net outflow of approximately $2.92 billion in March; during the same period, Bitcoin spot ETFs achieved a net inflow of about $1.32 billion, indicating a shift in capital preferences. Despite the divergence in capital flows, Bitcoin and gold prices have shown similar trends recently. Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin prices have dropped by about 8.07%, while gold prices have decreased by about 8.25%. Market views suggest that as investors' demand for digital asset allocation increases, Bitcoin ETFs are gradually shifting from "alternative assets" to mainstream asset allocation tools, and their long-term growth potential is being reassessed.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the profit and loss supply of Bitcoin has reached a typical level for a bear market. Currently, about 11.2 million Bitcoins are still in profit relative to their purchase price. This is not far from the lowest level of profitable Bitcoins during the last bear market (9 million).On the other hand, approximately 8.2 million Bitcoins are currently in a loss state, while the number of loss Bitcoins during the last bear market was about 10.6 million. This indicates that the market is significantly undervalued, similar to the situation during the last bear market.