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Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X platform that Canary has just revised the Pepe ETF application documents again, which may be another sign that the crypto winter has ended. A few months ago, the market wouldn't even consider launching the Pepe ETF, but now the market feels safer for testing.

Chief Investment Officer Greg Taylor of PenderFund Capital Management stated that the September non-farm report is favorable for the market and essentially rules out the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October.There may still be expectations for a rate hike in December, but it has already been priced in by the market and will not have a significant impact on the market.

Darkfost posted on platform X that Bitcoin is approaching the average cost price of two types of holding groups: investors holding for 18 months to 2 years have an average cost price of about $88,350, while investors holding for 6 to 12 months have an average cost price of about $89,200.Darkfost pointed out that the cost price is the average holding cost of the group, not a natural support or resistance level; as the price approaches this range, the behavior of related investors may change, and this area can be seen as a potential risk zone. The group of investors holding for 6 to 12 months has overall been at a loss for nearly a year, with some investors possibly having bought in at market peaks; some investors may sell after breaking even, while others may continue to buy to lower their holding costs.

Crypto analyst alicharts combines long-term K-line charts of mainstream crypto assets to predict the potential peaks of various mainstream cryptocurrencies in this bull market from a technical analysis perspective as follows: The first target for Bitcoin is the previous high of $125,000. If this high is broken, it may reach the upper boundary of the ascending channel—close to $190,000. The Ethereum monthly chart shows the ascending channel it has followed over the past 5 years, with the upper boundary around $5,000 being a level to watch. If this level is broken, the expected trend will point towards $8,800.The SOL monthly chart appears to be forming a cup and handle pattern, with the neckline around $295. If the monthly close breaks this line, it will strengthen the bullish case, with the potential target of this pattern expected to be close to $2,744.

Cryptocurrency analyst @AxelAdlerJr stated that the buying pressure indicator in the Bitcoin futures market has risen to 4.9, the highest since August 19; the contract open interest has increased by nearly 9,000 BTC within 24 hours.This indicator reading means that the accumulated buying pressure over the past 12 hours is nearly five standard deviations higher than the average level of the past week. @AxelAdlerJr indicated that if the Bitcoin price remains above $85,000 while the upward momentum weakens, the upward trend is likely to continue; if the price falls below $83,000, the liquidation of newly established long positions may accelerate the decline.

On-chain analyst Darkfost posted on X that the inflow of whale funds transferring over 1 million dollars in stablecoins to Binance has significantly increased recently.According to the 30-day cumulative calculation, the amount of stablecoins this group has transferred to Binance has risen from 21.7 billion dollars to 30.5 billion dollars over the past month, an increase of over 40%.Darkfost stated that the inflow of stablecoins to exchanges usually indicates that funds are preparing to enter the market, so this change may correspond to potential buying pressure. However, compared to last October when inflows once exceeded 61 billion dollars, the current deployment of whale funds remains relatively cautious.

According to Cointelegraph, a U.S. federal judge dismissed most of the claims made by the Celsius litigation administrator against the blockchain analytics company Chainalysis, but allowed one to proceed.U.S. District Judge Margaret Garnett of the Southern District of New York ruled on Tuesday, rejecting Chainalysis's request to dismiss the incitement charge, determining that the complaint sufficiently alleges that Chainalysis was aware that a press release issued by Celsius in 2020 contained false statements and assisted in disseminating that information.The court simultaneously dismissed 12 other claims with prejudice, prohibiting the plaintiffs from amending in this case; another 3 consumer protection claims were dismissed without prejudice, requiring the plaintiffs to amend or notify the court by October 20.The lawsuit was initiated by the Blockchain Recovery Investment Consortium (BRIC), which acts as the litigation administrator and claims manager for Celsius's bankruptcy estate, representing Celsius and some former clients in asserting rights. Chainalysis declined to comment to Cointelegraph.The core of the case revolves around a $3.3 billion "audit." In 2020, Celsius used Chainalysis's Reactor software to calculate its managed asset size and publicly announced the results as an audit.According to the complaint outlined by the court, a Celsius executive initially calculated approximately $1.18 billion in assets using Reactor, which later increased to about $3.3 billion due to adjustments in methodology.

Cryptocurrency analyst Ali pointed out in a post that during the overall sideways movement of the cryptocurrency market in the past week, there has been a significant divergence in the holdings of different assets by whales. Data shows that Bitcoin whale holdings decreased by about 30,000 BTC, valued at approximately $2.52 billion, indicating that large holders are reducing their Bitcoin exposure.In contrast, Ethereum whales increased their holdings by about 60,000 ETH during the same period, valued at approximately $162 million. Regarding XRP, whale holdings remained relatively stable, with total holdings maintaining around 3.9 billion XRP over the past week, showing no significant changes. Ali further stated that the current market presents a divergent pattern of "Bitcoin whales reducing holdings, Ethereum whales buying, and XRP whales observing," which is worth paying attention to.

Cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler stated that the current trading price of Bitcoin is approximately $83,700, which is 14% higher than the cost basis of short-term holders (STH). Data shows that over the past week, the cost basis of short-term holders increased by 1.2%, rising from $72,800 on September 24 to $73,700. Despite the continuous rise in cost basis, short-term holders still maintain an unrealized profit of about 13.7%, down from 15.4% a week ago.Meanwhile, the cost basis of long-term holders (LTH) of Bitcoin decreased from $48,900 to $48,800 over the past week, a decline of about 0.3%, marking one of the faster weekly declines this year. The current Bitcoin price is approximately 72% higher than the cost basis of long-term holders, who still have significant unrealized profit potential. Axel Adler noted that changes in the cost basis of long-term holders are mainly influenced by the duration of holding, and some high-cost chips may have shifted into the short-term holder group, thereby increasing the cost basis of short-term holders. If the weekly change in the cost basis of long-term holders returns to zero, it may indicate that this metric is stabilizing.

According to CoinDesk, after the U.S. August PCE inflation data came in lower than expected, Bitcoin briefly rose above $85,500, but the rally subsequently retreated as U.S. Treasury yields remained high.Dan Khus, Chief Analyst at LVRG Research, stated that the weaker PCE data reduced the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again in October, leading the market to focus more on policy changes in December, which boosted risk appetite in the crypto market.However, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains close to 5.3%, and the 30-year yield briefly reached its highest level since 2002, limiting Bitcoin's further upside potential.In other crypto assets, HYPE rose about 3% to around $89, DOGE increased nearly 2% to around $0.1; ETH, BNB, TRX, and ZEC saw gains of less than 1%, XRP remained flat at $1.5, and SOL fell nearly 1% to around $119.

Analysts at the Bank of Montreal pointed out that the annual benchmark revision by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator was revised down more than expected. The core PCE in August rose less than expected, with a year-on-year growth rate slowing to 3%, below the market expectation of 3.3%. Analysts believe this alleviates the urgency for another rate hike in October.

According to Cointelegraph, data from Chainalysis shows that in the year leading up to June 2026, Singapore's cryptocurrency economic activity grew by 55.4% year-on-year, reaching a scale of $284 billion, reclaiming its position as the largest crypto economy in Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania amid an overall contraction in the region.The increase was mainly contributed by institutional platforms, with such activities surging by 94% to $60 billion, concentrated among a few market makers, over-the-counter trading firms, and institutional brokers. During the same period, the total crypto economy in the aforementioned region declined by 6.8%.Chainalysis pointed out that the growth of Singapore's institutional ecosystem is highly concentrated, primarily reflected in large transactions on existing platforms rather than the entry of numerous new services. At the same time, Singapore is tightening cryptocurrency regulations while promoting tokenization, stablecoins, and digital asset settlements.In 2025, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) required local crypto companies providing services to overseas clients to obtain licenses or exit the market. StraitsX CEO Tianwei Liu believes this measure curbed speculative activities and increased the proportion of banks and large enterprises applying blockchain in production. MAS is also conducting compliance stablecoin and tokenized bank deposit pilots through the BLOOM program, with Ripple joining on March 25 to test cross-border trade settlements using RLUSD.The Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam excel in small P2P transfers. Chainalysis statistics show that the three countries collectively recorded 5.4 million domestic and international peer-to-peer transfers under $10,000, accounting for 14.4% of global similar transactions, but only representing 2.5% of the global crypto economy.

Bitcoin News posted on platform X that the Box 3 tax bill currently under consideration in the Dutch parliament proposes to tax the actual annual returns on investments, including the appreciation of unsold assets. The Dutch Tax Authority explicitly includes cryptocurrency assets held in personal wallets, exchanges, or third parties when calculating actual returns.The Dutch government is studying a shift to a capital gains tax system, which would tax the appreciation of assets when gains are realized, but stated that the existing proposal for 2028 remains the basis during the review of relevant adjustments.The bill has been passed by the House of Representatives and is still awaiting review by the Senate, with the final system potentially subject to adjustments before 2028.

Analyst Darkfost stated that the demand from Bitcoin retail investors (trading volume of $0 - $10,000) has rapidly disappeared during this round of BTC price increase, with a 30-day change rate shifting from over 17% to -3.5%.

CryptoQuant analyst Zizcrypto stated that the adjusted long-term holder (LTH) MVRV metric has recovered from a shallow pressure zone and is currently back in a profitable state. Data shows that the adjusted MVRV for the long-term holder group with a holding period of 6 months to 10 years continued to compress and remained above 1 in April this year. An MVRV of 1 represents the overall breakeven line for this group, with values above 1 indicating unrealized profits and below 1 indicating unrealized losses.Between June and August, this metric fell below 1 five times, reaching a low of approximately 0.94 on June 30, when the BTC price was around $58,500, while the group's realized price benchmark was about $62,000, which is about 6% below the breakeven line. However, Zizcrypto noted that the duration and magnitude of this pressure were limited, with the metric remaining close to 1 and not entering the deep loss phase for long-term holders seen in 2019 and during 2022-2023. As of September 27, the adjusted LTH MVRV has recovered to about 1.35, with the BTC price around $84,500, while the long-term holders' realized price is about $62,700, indicating that the spot price is approximately 35% higher than this cost basis. The long-term holder group with a holding period of 6 months to 10 years has emerged from a shallow pressure phase below 1 and re-entered an overall profitable state, resembling a recovery after a healthy adjustment rather than a deep or prolonged loss cycle.

According to Lianhe Zaobao, U.S. President Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This new round of macroeconomic uncertainty is putting pressure on risk assets, and Bitcoin has cooled off after several weeks of rapid gains, with its upward momentum stalling.In addition to geopolitical factors, the market continues to digest the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike measures and is also preparing for another possible rate hike in October. Since August 19, Bitcoin has risen by 28%, and now, Bitcoin is expected to achieve its best quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 2024.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield returned to above 5.2% overnight, reaching a high not seen since 2007, putting pressure on global risk assets. Bitcoin has fallen back to around $83,000, with altcoins experiencing even larger declines. In this regard, Cloud, the chief analyst at Huobi HTX, believes that this drop is more akin to a normal pullback after a rebound and does not constitute the starting point of a trend reversal. The high U.S. Treasury yields mainly suppress valuations, with limited impact on the overall liquidity. The funding structure and holding costs of the crypto market itself have also not been disrupted. This round of decline seems more like a clearing of positions before key data is released.It is important to be cautious about the divergence between Bitcoin and altcoins. During a phase of marginal liquidity tightening, funds tend to concentrate on the most certain top assets; altcoins lack incremental funds to support them, and with heavier leverage, their pullbacks are therefore amplified. This divergence is likely to continue before the release of this week's PCE and non-farm data. If the data falls short of expectations, altcoins will have greater elasticity and thus higher risks; if the data exceeds expectations, Bitcoin's relative strength will be more pronounced. Whether Bitcoin can stabilize at key support levels will be the main signal to determine if this round of pullback has ended.Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation of investment products.

Citrini analyst Jukan cited Anthropic-related data from TickerTrends and expressed doubts. The data shows that as of September 24, 2026, Anthropic's annual recurring revenue (ARR) is approximately $76.8 billion, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of only 1.8%; OpenAI's annual recurring revenue is approximately $50.44 billion, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 13.4%.Jukan believes that even based on this set of data, Anthropic's growth rate has clearly declined, OpenAI's growth is also slowing down, and he questions the reliability of TickerTrends data.

According to Lookonchain, Strategy transferred 3,568 BTC in the past 9 hours. Arkham analyst Emmett Gallic stated that these transactions were neither sales nor external transfers, but rather normal fund allocations within the Fidelity custody system.Fidelity treats all BTC deposited by clients as interchangeable assets and will transfer funds as needed. The relevant addresses have been marked as Fidelity addresses on Arkham.

Cryptocurrency analyst Ali posted on platform X, stating that ETH seems to be forming a bullish trend on lower time frames, as long as $2640 continues to act as a support level, this pattern remains tilted towards the bulls.Ali further pointed out that the current focus is on the $2700 level. If ETH closes above $2700 on an hourly basis, it may confirm an upward breakout and open up further space to test $3000.