cryptoquant

According to on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant, analyst Darkfost has monitored that Bitcoin ETF fund flows have significantly rebounded after experiencing a large outflow. The cumulative Bitcoin balance of the ETF is still negative (approximately -4,000 BTC), but it has improved significantly compared to the lowest point (-42,000 BTC). In the past month, the ETF has seen a net inflow of about 38,000 BTC, equivalent to approximately $2.6 billion.Analysts point out that the rebound in ETF demand is an important driving factor for the recent positive trend in the Bitcoin market. However, the Bitcoin price is still fluctuating within the current range, and whether it can maintain positive momentum in the future depends on the sustainability of this trend.

CryptoQuant analyzed on platform X that the demand for Bitcoin reserves is currently entirely driven by Strategy.In the past 30 days, Strategy purchased 45,000 Bitcoins, while other companies collectively bought only about 1,000, a decrease of 99% compared to before. Currently, Strategy holds about 76% of the Bitcoin reserve share, indicating a high concentration in the industry and a lack of broad corporate demand.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler posted on the X platform that the Coinbase premium index has rebounded from the previously negative range reflecting a collapse in demand from U.S. investors to a neutral to weak level. However, this indicator has not yet stabilized in the positive range, indicating that comprehensive bullish momentum from U.S. investors has not yet been confirmed, and market sentiment remains cautious.

CryptoQuant posted on social media that the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold has dropped to -0.88, setting a new low.This means that the two show a strong negative correlation trend, with capital flowing into Bitcoin pushing its price up to $74,000, while gold has seen a slight decline.

CryptoQuant posted on platform X that the trend of Ethereum's open interest indicates a continuous inflow of liquidity into the derivatives market, supporting the stability of Ethereum's upward trend rather than short-term fluctuations.

On-chain data analysis firm CryptoQuant stated that ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision, the sentiment among derivatives market traders has clearly shifted to bullish. However, if the price of Bitcoin continues to rise, it may encounter resistance in the range of $75,000 to $85,000.CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno pointed out that there has been a significant increase in long positions in the perpetual contract market recently, indicating that traders generally expect there is still upward potential for prices in the short term. As Bitcoin broke through $70,000, a large number of short positions were liquidated, while new long positions continued to build above $73,000. At the same time, the funding rate also shows a change in market sentiment. The Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rate remained "extremely negative" before March 13, but has turned generally positive since March 15, indicating that traders are willing to pay fees to maintain long positions. The Ethereum funding rate has also mostly remained positive since March 9. However, CryptoQuant noted that if Bitcoin continues to rise, it may first encounter resistance around $75,000, which corresponds to the lower bound of the "Traders' On-chain Realized Price." The next important resistance range is around $85,000, a level that has previously served as price resistance during the rallies in October 2025 and January of this year.

CryptoQuant analyst @AxelAdlerJr stated that there has been a rebound in the inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs recently, but the Bitcoin price is still $5,174 lower than the ETF realization price (note: this can be approximated as the average cost price of Bitcoin held by the ETF), which is about $80,000.The analyst mentioned that a recovery in demand could drive prices upward, but the resistance level around $80,000 may trigger profit-taking, and it is necessary to pay attention to subsequent macro data to assess the potential for a breakout.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated on social media that the current price of Bitcoin has risen above its fair value, and the market structure has significantly changed compared to two weeks ago.Axel Adler Jr pointed out that two weeks ago, the market was in a bearish dominant phase, with the price of Bitcoin below its fair value, and the model he used was also in a "Bear Regime" state. As of now, this structure has completely reversed—prices have risen above fair value, and the bears' control over the market has come to an end.

According to The Block, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant states that Ethereum is facing an "adoption paradox," where network activity has reached an all-time high, yet the price of ETH has significantly dropped.The research director at CryptoQuant indicated that if the bear market continues, ETH could further decline to around $1,500, a level that may be reached by the end of Q3 or the beginning of Q4 this year. Data shows that Ethereum's daily active addresses hit an all-time high last month, surpassing levels seen during the 2021 bull market, while ETH has dropped over 50% from this cycle's peak. Activity generated by smart contracts and automated protocols has also surged, with internal contract calls reaching an all-time high last month, but the historical relationship has deteriorated, weakening the positive correlation between ETH prices and contract-driven activity.CryptoQuant pointed out that exchange inflows explain ETH price dynamics better than network activity metrics, and a higher exchange inflow ratio of ETH relative to Bitcoin indicates stronger relative selling pressure. Ethereum's realized market cap has recently turned negative over the past year, indicating that capital is flowing out, even as on-chain activity continues to grow. The research director stated that ETH needs to see positive capital inflows and lower exchange inflows to emerge from the bear market.

According to on-chain data platform CryptoQuant, the selling pressure from Bitcoin miners has intensified. MARA announced a new policy allowing the sale of Bitcoin reserves and transferred 298 BTC to Cumberland; Core Scientific recently also sold 2,174 BTC.MARA's current average mining cost is about $70,027 per coin, while efficient miners can have costs as low as approximately $45,000. The purpose of the sell-offs by several mining companies includes strengthening their balance sheets and funding the expansion of AI infrastructure.

According to CoinDesk, CryptoQuant's latest report shows that Ethereum network activity has reached historical highs on multiple metrics, but the price of ETH has dropped about 30% over the past six months. Data indicates that the number of daily active addresses on Ethereum is close to 2 million, surpassing the peak during the 2021 bull market; the number of smart contract calls has exceeded 40 million per day.However, Ethereum has seen its annual market cap change turn negative, indicating a net outflow of capital. CryptoQuant's analysis suggests that capital flow, rather than network activity, better explains the current ETH price trend, contrasting with the synchronous rise of on-chain activity and price during the cycles of 2018 and 2021.In terms of fees, according to DefiLlama data, Ethereum's trading fees over the past 30 days were approximately $10.3 million, ranking third, behind Tron and Solana; protocol revenue was only $1.22 million, ranking fifth. Despite Ethereum supporting about $162 billion in stablecoin supply (accounting for 52% of the global market), its value capture ability has not kept pace with the growth in network usage.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel posted on platform X, stating that Bitcoin may have entered the mid-stage of the current bear market cycle. The NUPL--MVRV harmonic composite indicator has reached 0.33, while historical cycle bottoms typically occur around the -0.5 range. The chart shows that the bear market cycle is beginning to trend upwards, indicating that extreme sell-off conditions are becoming milder. However, the indicator is still well above the historical bottom region, meaning that a comprehensive market sell-off has not yet been confirmed.

According to analysis by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn, the price of Bitcoin has recently risen by 7%, climbing from $68,000 to $73,500, driven primarily by strong institutional demand.The Coinbase premium has surged to $61, indicating that U.S. institutional investors are flooding into the market. Hyblock data shows that $790 million worth of Bitcoin was purchased through TWAP orders, a typical method for large investors to accumulate without excessively impacting the market.From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has broken through the key resistance level of $71,700 and maintained its position above it, confirming the breakout and sustaining a bullish structure. However, the analyst also warns of potential risks in the market.Leverage in the derivatives market has rapidly increased, with Bitcoin and Ethereum adding $3.55 billion (+18%) and $1.8 billion (+17%) in leverage, respectively. These new positions require sustained spot demand to remain stable; if buying support weakens, over-leveraged positions may be quickly liquidated, exacerbating market volatility.

CryptoQuant analysis indicates that Bitcoin's current price is hovering in the $62,000 - $68,000 range, with the funding rate in the futures market remaining in negative territory, suggesting that bearish sentiment is dominating the market. This is different from the previous bottom around $80,000, where the funding rate mostly stayed positive.Since 2025, the dominant force in the market has been selling pressure, with buy orders only used to absorb supply. The current selling pressure has reached its highest level in three months. Notably, the futures market has maintained a high leverage state for 16 consecutive months, and excessive leverage has been decreasing since Bitcoin's last historical peak. Analysts point out that while the price drop has forced some investors to liquidate, it has actually improved the market's leverage health, which is a positive signal in the long run.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost disclosed that the "Coinbase Premium Gap," which measures the price difference between Coinbase Advanced and Binance, has recently turned positive again, indicating initial signs of a recovery in professional capital demand in the U.S. market. Data shows that this is the third time this year that the indicator has returned to positive territory, with the current premium at approximately $10.18, which remains relatively mild overall.Analysts believe that a positive premium is typically seen as a signal of increased buying from U.S. institutions and professional investors. The report points out that the user base of Coinbase Advanced is more inclined towards professional and institutional participants, while Binance has a broader retail user base globally and holds a significant share of overall market liquidity. Therefore, changes in the price difference between the two are often used as an important indicator to observe the flow of U.S. capital.Since Bitcoin entered a more pronounced correction phase on February 4, this premium gap has been continuously repairing and recently turned positive again. However, analysts emphasize that this signal is still preliminary, reflecting a cautious market sentiment, and the possibility of turning negative again in the short term cannot be ruled out. Overall, the current price level is gradually becoming attractive to professional capital, but to confirm a trend reversal, further observation of the continued expansion of the premium and changes in capital behavior is still needed.

CryptoQuant's analysis on platform X indicates that USDT is currently under extreme liquidity pressure, similar to the market bottom period in 2022. Meanwhile, the net inflow of stablecoins to exchanges has dropped from a peak of $616 million in November 2025 to $27 million, showing a weakening marginal buying power, and "the liquidity available for deployment in the crypto market is contracting."Additionally, predictive market data shows that traders are increasing their bets on further downside for Bitcoin. The probability of Bitcoin falling below $55,000 on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket has risen to 72%, with the total trading volume of related contracts reaching $1.2 billion. Furthermore, the probabilities of falling below $50,000 and $45,000 are 67% and 47%, respectively, with corresponding trading volumes of approximately $170,000 and $1.4 billion.

CryptoQuant posted on platform X that currently, $47.5 billion in stablecoins is concentrated on a single exchange. Binance holds 65% of the stablecoin liquidity across all exchanges, while competitors still lag far behind, even as outflows have slowed in the bear market. Funds have not left the crypto space; instead, they are concentrating.

CryptoQuant's Bull-Bear Index recently hit its lowest point since the FTX collapse in 2022. This indicator measures market momentum by the difference between the market profit and loss index and its 365-day moving average. Historical data shows that similar extreme bear market levels often signal the formation of a bottom.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, data shows that the whale Bitcoin inflow ratio on the Binance platform surged from 0.4 to 0.62 between February 2 and 15, reflecting an increase in the share of large holders' Bitcoin deposits, which may exacerbate market sell-off pressure.Darkfost's analysis points out that part of the inflow is related to the activity of BTC OG insider whales. On-chain information indicates that BTC OG insider whales have deposited approximately 10,000 BTC to Binance over the past two weeks.Darkfost stated that this phenomenon does not seem to be an isolated event, as some whales have sent large amounts of Bitcoin transactions to this CEX. This is not only because Binance has ample liquidity but also because the uncertain market environment has prompted various investors to reassess their risk exposure and strategies.

On-chain analysis company CryptoQuant indicates that the "ultimate" bottom of the Bitcoin bear market is currently around $55,000, and the formation of a bear market bottom typically takes several months rather than being completed by a single capitulation event. CryptoQuant states that the realized price of Bitcoin has historically been a major support area during bear markets and is likely to represent the final bear market bottom. Currently, the trading price of Bitcoin is still over 25% higher than this level.The company notes that in past bear markets, prices fell below the realized price by 24% after the FTX collapse, and in the 2018 cycle, it dropped by 30%. After reaching these levels, Bitcoin usually requires four to six months to build a bottom. CryptoQuant believes another sign that Bitcoin has not yet reached a structural bottom is the significant single-day realized losses. Data shows that when the Bitcoin price dropped 14% to $62,000, holders recorded an average realized loss of $5.4 billion in a single day, the highest daily loss since March 2023, surpassing the $4.3 billion recorded a few days after the FTX collapse in November 2022.Despite the massive scale of losses, CryptoQuant states that the price bottom has not yet arrived. The monthly cumulative realized losses measured in Bitcoin are still far below the levels corresponding to bear market bottoms, currently at 300,000 BTC, compared to 1.1 million BTC at the end of the bear market in 2022, the report notes. Several key valuation metrics also remain above historical panic sell-off regions. CryptoQuant claims that the MVRV ratio (the ratio of Bitcoin's market value to its realized value) has not yet entered the extremely undervalued range that historically marks bear market bottoms. Similarly, the NUPL metric has not reached the unrealized loss level of about 20% seen in past cycle lows.The behavior of long-term holders has also not reflected complete panic selling. CryptoQuant points out that long-term holders are currently selling at prices close to breakeven, whereas during past bear market bottoms, they endured losses of 30%-40%. Additionally, about 55% of the Bitcoin supply is still in profit, while cycle lows typically fall within the range of 45%-50%. CryptoQuant further states that its bull-bear cycle indicator is currently still in the "bear market phase," rather than the "extreme bear market phase"—the latter historically marks the point at which prices begin to enter a bottoming phase. The company notes that this extreme phase typically lasts for several months, indicating that the formation of a bear market bottom requires time.