economists

According to Jinshi reports, Paul Zangieri, a senior economist at Prudential Investment, is closely monitoring the communication wording of the Federal Reserve. It is expected that the FOMC will "maintain or even strengthen its hawkish tone," as ongoing inflation, rising oil prices, and internal disagreements within the FOMC open the door for further tightening of policies later this year.

According to Jinshi reports, Joseph Lavorgna, Chief U.S. Economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, stated that if the inflation rate does not slow down, Federal Reserve policymakers will lose their hard-earned credibility. He pointed out that in the past 70 years, there have only been six instances where the core inflation rate decreased year-on-year by 0.9% or more, and each time the inflation slowdown was due to the Federal Reserve tightening its policy.Lavorgna emphasized that the longer the Federal Reserve waits, the greater the probability that interest rates will rise above necessary levels.

According to Jinshi reports, a Reuters survey shows that since 2023, for the first time, more economists predict that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates rather than cut them.

According to Jinshi News, Capital Economics believes that the Federal Reserve will likely remain on hold this week. The agency's North America Chief Economist Stephen Brown speculates that Waller's remarks may be more hawkish than expected, and the market risk lies in communication errors or changes in Waller's stance. Brown warns that if Waller is constrained by Trump, a dovish tone could raise concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and push up long-term bond yields. He also stated that there is a high possibility of two "insurance rate hikes" in December and early next year.

According to Jinshi reports, economists have raised their forecasts for U.S. inflation and delayed the timeline for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate cut, expecting the core PCE index to remain above 3%. Surveys show that economists are evenly split on whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December, whereas previous predictions anticipated a rate cut in October. Wilmington Trust Corp Chief Economist Luke Tilly stated that consumer spending is weak and expects the unemployment rate to peak at 4.5% in the third quarter.

According to Jinshi reports, economist Anna Wong stated that the hiring performance in April was unexpectedly strong, but the unemployment rate rose. This combination suggests that the job growth rate needed to maintain a stable unemployment rate may be higher than the near-zero growth level previously estimated by the Federal Reserve. In the April employment report, the freight industry contributed more than half of the new jobs for the month, confirming the improvement signals released in recent PMI and regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys. Wong expects the Federal Reserve to likely keep interest rates unchanged until the fourth quarter, at which point, as the unemployment rate rises, a 50 basis point rate cut is anticipated.

According to Jinshi reports, former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman and economist Roger Ferguson stated that the labor market is currently in a generally stable state, but inflation remains high at 3%, and much work still needs to be done. He expects the Federal Reserve to temporarily hold its position and observe the development of the situation. Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle also expects that the statement after the Federal Reserve meeting will acknowledge the improvement in the job market and the rise in inflation, but the policy guidance will remain unchanged, with most expecting to maintain interest rates.

According to Jinshi reports, a Reuters survey shows that among 103 economists, 71 expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at least once this year.

According to Jinshi News, economists say that the sudden rise in gasoline prices felt by American consumers will be fully reflected in the key inflation data to be released this week. The U.S. March CPI is expected to rise by 1% month-on-month, marking the largest single-month increase since 2022; the core CPI may rise by 0.3% month-on-month. Economists point out that persistent price pressures and new inflation risks brought about by the Middle East war may make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates this year.

According to Jinshi reports, a Reuters survey shows that among 82 economists, 65 (about 79%) believe that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates one to two times this year.

According to Jinshi News, Michael Pearce, the Chief Economist for the U.S. at Oxford Economics, stated that the market is gradually ruling out the possibility of interest rate cuts in the short term, but this may be a misjudgment. He pointed out that although economic growth is stronger, it has not significantly tightened labor market conditions, which explains why most officials still believe there is a path for interest rate cuts this year. Pearce also mentioned that the market believes this situation leans more towards mild disinflation rather than exacerbating inflation in terms of long-term inflation impact.

According to Jin Ten's report, based on a Bloomberg survey, economists have pushed back their expectations for the Federal Reserve's next rate cut from March to June, but still anticipate two rate cuts of 25 basis points each before the end of the year. The survey shows that nearly one-third of economists express concerns about Kevin Warsh, the chairman nominee proposed by Trump. The median of the survey indicates that economists expect interest rates to be in the range of 3% to 3.25% by the end of this year.

According to Cointelegraph, cryptocurrency economist Timothy Peterson's latest analysis indicates that Bitcoin still has structural upside potential during the current bear market correction: 50% of the months in the past 24 months recorded positive returns, suggesting a higher probability of a positive return turning point in any 24-month period.Based on this, Peterson estimates that the probability of Bitcoin being above the current level in the next 10 months is 88%. He emphasizes that this statistical model shows the market may be approaching a turning point rather than continuing to decline.The current Bitcoin price is approximately $68,173, down nearly 25% from the year's high, erasing most of the gains after the 2024-2025 U.S. elections; the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen to "Extreme Fear" at 9 points, and social media interest in Bitcoin predictions has dried up, with sentiment trending neutral.

According to Jinshi reports, a Reuters survey shows that out of 101 economists surveyed, 60 believe that the Federal Reserve will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.25%-3.5% before the end of June.

According to Jinshi reports, market analyst Chris Anstey stated that considering the previously low data for October and November due to suspected measurement errors, a price rebound was originally expected in December. Therefore, the 0.2% core CPI month-on-month rate appears much milder. Among 73 economists, only 11 predicted that the core CPI month-on-month rate would record a level of 0.2%, a result that surprised the vast majority of economists.

According to Jinshi News, Rogier Quadevelich, an economist at the Dutch Bank, stated in a report that the investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell could affect the prospects of interest rate cuts in the short term. He pointed out that challenges to the independence of the Federal Reserve might prompt board members to take a tougher stance, delaying the decision on rate cuts. This investigation involves cost overruns in the renovation project of the Federal Reserve headquarters, and Quadevelich believes this is a means to pressure the Federal Reserve Chairman, which could lead to a delay in rate cuts.

According to Gelonghui, Harry Dent, the founder of HS Dent Investment, recently warned that the most severe market crash in history will occur in 2026. Dent predicts that the current market bubble, which has lasted nearly 17 years, will burst, leading to a 90% drop in the stock market.He described it as the worst market environment since the Great Depression, with stocks, real estate, and digital assets deeply entrenched in a debt-driven "super bubble."Dent stated that early 2026—especially January—will be a critical period for determining whether the bubble will ultimately burst or continue for another year. The reason is that, based on historical experience, a strong performance in the stock market during the first week and the first month of January often indicates a bullish trend for the entire year; however, if January shows weakness, it will further confirm his bearish outlook.He concluded that the only asset that might "survive" is U.S. Treasury bonds, as they can print money to pay off debts. On this point, this economist seems to differ from some other well-known economists, as Peter Schiff previously predicted an unprecedented dollar collapse in 2026.

Bank of America economist Takayasu Kudo wrote in a report that after the Bank of Japan raises the target interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75% at its meeting on December 18-19, it is expected to continue raising the policy rate every six months.He stated, "Based on recent developments in corporate earnings, wage negotiations, the depreciation of the yen in the foreign exchange market, and dialogue with the government, the Bank of Japan is increasingly confident that it can raise interest rates at the upcoming December meeting."The economist expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in June 2026, followed by further increases in January and July 2027. (Jin Shi)

According to Jinshi reports, a Reuters survey shows that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the December rate decision to support a cooling labor market. Among the 108 economists surveyed, 82% (89 economists) hold this view. This strong consensus is largely consistent with the results of the November survey and aligns with the nearly 85% probability of a rate cut in the futures market, but stands in stark contrast to the widening divergence among policymakers. The survey's predictions for 2026 reflect this lack of consensus, although the median forecast indicates there will be two more rate cuts, bringing the federal funds rate down to 3-3.25% by the end of the year.