speculation

Vitalik Buterin posted on the X social platform, stating that the current prediction markets are overly focused on short-term cryptocurrency prices and high-dopamine products like sports betting, lacking long-term social information value, which may lead to unhealthy product-market fit.He suggested that prediction markets should be encouraged to develop towards "risk hedging," making them tools for reducing asset or real expenditure risks. Buterin also envisioned constructing a stable mechanism to replace fiat currencies through personalized prediction market shares based on price indices, thereby providing users with more sustainable value hedging solutions. He called for the establishment of a new generation of financial systems, rather than merely relying on speculative flows.

RTFKT's NFT series Clone X has recently shown strong price performance. NFT Price Floor data indicates that the Clone X floor price is currently at 0.38 ETH, reaching a new high since April 2024, with a 7-day increase of 339.8%. The series briefly touched 0.44 ETH last weekend, with a significant increase in trading activity. The price fluctuations of Clone X are mainly influenced by the news of "Nike selling RTFKT."Nike quietly completed the sale of RTFKT in December 2025, and the identity of the buyer and specific terms remain confidential. The market generally expects that after separating from Nike, RTFKT may follow the path of NFTs like Pudgy Penguins and Moonbirds, which saw a resurgence after being acquired, achieving a brand revitalization. Currently, Improbable co-founder Herman Narula, BAYC parent company Yuga Labs, and billionaire collector Adam Weitsman have all explicitly denied involvement in the acquisition. The most speculated potential buyers include LVMH and Pudgy Penguins.Among them, the LVMH group and its family members are seasoned players in the NFT space, and the brand has a deep historical collaboration with Clone X creator Takashi Murakami; Pudgy Penguins has close ties with RTFKT. According to crypto KOL @baofuliu's analysis, RTFKT founder Zaptio attended a co-founder gathering with Pudgy Penguins last year and subsequently posted "Clones are so back," hinting at a project revival. Additionally, Pudgy Penguins CEO Luca Netz has held Clone X NFTs for four years and has successful experience in NFT revitalization. It is important to note that the above acquisition information is purely market speculation and has not been officially confirmed, and does not constitute investment advice.

CZ posted on the X platform that many people often ask him where he thinks the next big opportunity lies, and his answer is always "watch where I spend my time."CZ pointed out that this logic is not complicated, but market participants often choose to ignore it, instead chasing so-called "10x overnight" opportunities, which have a very high probability of failure. His statement aims to emphasize that long-term investment and sustained focus on a direction often reflect truly potential opportunities better than short-term speculation.

DWF Labs stated that in 2025, over $19 billion in liquidations cleared excessive leverage from the crypto market, shifting the market from a speculation-driven cycle to a balance sheet-driven market structure.The supply of stablecoins grew by over 50% year-on-year, with more than $20 billion allocated to yield-bearing stablecoins, indicating that the crypto industry is moving from being merely a payment tool to focusing on asset management.The on-chain real-world assets (RWA) scale expanded from approximately $4 billion to $18 billion, while the proportion of derivatives trading on DEX and CEX increased to four times the original, marking the crypto market's accelerated transformation into a credible financial infrastructure.

According to Jinshi, U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant stated that speculation about the Federal Reserve Chair nominee will be announced in early January, and the Supreme Court will make a ruling on tariff issues in early January.

Coinbase Institutional stated that the turmoil in November reshaped the market landscape: the open interest of BTC/ETH/SOL perpetual contracts decreased by 16% month-over-month; there was a $3.5 billion outflow of BTC and a $1.4 billion outflow of ETH from U.S. spot ETFs; the funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts briefly fell below 2σ of the 90-day average, before recovering.These changes lay the groundwork for a stable situation in December, and the institution believes it can remain cautiously optimistic, as excessive speculation has been curbed. The systemic leverage tracking purely speculative positions has stabilized around 4%-5% of the total market capitalization, down from about 10% this summer. Lower leverage indicates a healthier market structure and reduces the risk of a significant decline before the end of the year.

According to Trends News monitoring, Trump posted on Truth Social the day before, fiercely criticizing the judicial predicament faced by NCAA: a ruling by a judge with no knowledge or experience led to NCAA and sports leagues conceding, and Trump stated this would bring "$BIG trouble." As the "$" symbol typically represents tradable asset codes on social platforms, the community speculated that Trump might launch a meme coin.Based on dynamics across various platforms, the token that garnered the most consensus following Trump's post was BIG, created on the Solana network through the Bonk platform, approximately 10 seconds after his post. As of the time of writing, this token has a total of 5,148 holders, with a peak market cap reaching $5.3 million, which has now retraced to $360,000.ChainCatcher reminds users that meme coins often lack practical use cases and exhibit significant price volatility, so investment should be approached with caution.

Coinbase Institutional posted that the overall cryptocurrency market (represented by the COIN50 index) fell by 18.47% in November. The 90-day trend shows a downward trajectory, global liquidity is decreasing, and the Federal Reserve's hawkish comments have intensified risk-averse sentiment.Funds continue to rotate out of more speculative market segments, exacerbating the decline of altcoins, with only a few altcoins rising against the trend. Among all categories, DeFi performed the best, with a decline of only 6.7% compared to other categories that clearly showed risk-averse sentiment.

Beijing Business Daily Financial Investigation Team published an article titled "The Surge of Cryptocurrency Speculators into Social Platforms," which points out that the chaos of cryptocurrency speculation has infiltrated platforms such as Xiaohongshu, Taobao, and Xianyu. What appears to be lifestyle sharing, newcomer benefits, or product links is, in fact, a diversion for cryptocurrency speculation, brewing a carefully woven hunting trap for ordinary people. From the perspective of diversion methods, it can be roughly divided into several situations, such as creating topics to build IP and setting up advertising links on platforms. Industry insiders believe that a "counter-hunting" battle against the chaos of cryptocurrency speculation has also begun, but to completely end this game, a joint effort from regulators, platforms, and users is needed.Not long ago, Pan Gongsheng, the governor of the People's Bank of China, publicly stated that efforts to crack down on the operation and speculation of virtual currencies within the country would continue. Since 2017, the People's Bank of China, together with relevant departments, has issued multiple policy documents to prevent and address the risks of domestic virtual currency trading and speculation, and these policy documents remain effective. In the next step, the People's Bank of China will continue to work with law enforcement agencies to combat the operation and speculation of virtual currencies within the country, maintain economic and financial order, and closely monitor and dynamically assess the development of overseas stablecoin values.

The People's Bank of China held a coordination meeting to combat speculation and trading of virtual currencies. The meeting pointed out that, influenced by various factors, speculation in virtual currencies has recently increased, and related illegal activities have occurred from time to time, posing new situations and challenges for risk prevention and control. The meeting emphasized that virtual currencies do not have the same legal status as legal tender, do not have legal compensation, and should not and cannot be circulated as currency in the market. Activities related to virtual currencies are considered illegal financial activities. Stablecoins are a form of virtual currency that currently cannot effectively meet requirements for customer identification, anti-money laundering, and other aspects, posing risks of being used for illegal activities such as money laundering, fundraising fraud, and illegal cross-border fund transfers.The meeting required continued adherence to prohibitive policies on virtual currencies and ongoing efforts to combat illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies. All units should deepen cooperation, improve regulatory policies and legal foundations, focus on key areas such as information flow and capital flow, strengthen information sharing, further enhance monitoring capabilities, severely crack down on illegal activities, protect the property safety of the people, and maintain the stability of the economic and financial order.Responsible comrades from the Ministry of Public Security, the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Central Financial Office, the Supreme People's Court, the Supreme People's Procuratorate, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Justice, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange attended the meeting.

Bitget Research Institute's Chief Analyst Ryan Lee stated in the latest market outlook that the expansion of stablecoin supply and net inflows into ETFs continue to attract traditional financial capital into the market, becoming a major driving force in the current crypto market. He pointed out that more importantly, this round of capital inflow is showing sustainability rather than speculation, indicating that the market is moving towards a more mature development stage. December will be a key macro window period, as the end of the government shutdown and interest rate adjustment policies will set the tone for the market.In addition, during a recent live broadcast hosted by Bitget, several guests shared their latest judgments on the market. Guest "Wang Bu Ai" stated that the U.S. government shutdown is expected to end in the short term, which will boost market confidence and drive capital back into the market. He noted that the macro trends of this cycle can be referenced against the situation during Trump's first term, where after the government shutdown ended, the U.S. experienced quantitative easing and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, significantly enhancing market liquidity. Given that the midterm elections are approaching next year, Trump will undoubtedly take measures to stimulate the U.S. economy to consolidate his voter base.Guest "Bi Du" pointed out that the recent mismatch in on-chain liquidity has intensified, with the utilization rates of mainstream lending pools generally nearing their limits. In the medium term, investors can moderately allocate to high-quality DeFi protocols that have been unfairly punished. Additionally, attention can be focused on mainstream public chains such as BTC, ETH, and SOL, as well as the short-term rebound potential of popular themes like AI and Memecoins. Overall, the market is still in the "liquidity defense + sentiment game" stage, and a trend-driven market has not yet been established. The current strategic focus should be on maintaining liquidity, avoiding systemic risks, and patiently waiting for trust to be rebuilt and the main trend to be confirmed.Guest "30 Has Retired" believes that from a long-term perspective, the current market is in a stage of transitioning between bull and bear markets. In the short term, the market is still primarily in a rebound trend, mainly driven by the confidence boost from the U.S. government resuming operations and the favorable expectations surrounding the interest rate cut cycle. He added that his common method for trend judgment is to observe changes in the MACD indicator to assess the market direction.

ChainCatcher message, Formula News founder Vida posted on his personal channel, "I have exited my FORM position. Clearly, the market has become desensitized to the Meme speculation narrative, and Binance has not invested more resources to nurture its direct members (Four.meme, Aster) as I expected."