tightening

Due to the strengthening of the US dollar and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, market expectations for tightening monetary policy have increased, causing gold prices to decline within a range. The dollar has risen to a two-month high, making gold priced in dollars more expensive. Richmond Fed President Barkin stated that the threat of interest rate hikes and further increases in the future could suppress corporate inflation expectations.

Former New York Fed President Dudley stated that the reasons for the Federal Reserve's current tightening of monetary policy are quite sufficient, and the interest rate hike in September may not be a "one-time action," but rather the beginning of a series of continuous rate increases. Dudley pointed out that the U.S. inflation rate remains persistently above the Fed's 2% target, the labor market remains relatively stable, and the core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in August, further dispelling market concerns about a cooling of inflation.In his view, the Federal Reserve is currently clearly deviating from its dual mandate goal regarding price stability, and there are still further upward risks for inflation in the short term. Dudley expects that the Federal Reserve may provide a median expectation of two cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points each for 2026 in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) to be released in September. He also noted that over the past few decades, the probability of the Fed raising rates again after a single hike has been as high as 85% to 90%, so the market should not view this round of actions as "a mere taste."Additionally, Dudley believes that if Waller decisively raises rates, it would also help demonstrate his determination to curb inflation and the Fed's policy independence. He warned that Waller should not "outsource" monetary policy to the financial markets, and the future path of interest rates should be determined by the Fed based on economic data and its own policy judgments, rather than catering to market expectations.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has released a proposed announcement to suspend the acceptance of new applications for registration of payment system operators (OPS) for 12 months and to implement stricter controls on payment arrangements involving virtual asset service providers (VASP). The BSP stated that this move aims to conduct a comprehensive review of its classification and licensing framework.According to the draft, during the suspension period, the BSP will stop accepting and processing OPS applications. Applications submitted prior to the suspension can continue to be evaluated, but will not be approved or rejected until the suspension ends. Relevant entities are prohibited from conducting business activities that require OPS registration unless they obtain special authorization from the regulatory agency. In addition, BSP-regulated entities providing merchant acquiring services must connect licensed VASPs through direct merchant arrangements, and such relationships will be subject to enhanced due diligence, transaction and settlement limits, and other risk control measures.This requirement applies to virtual asset enterprises licensed, registered, or authorized by the BSP, the Securities and Exchange Commission of the Philippines, or other regulatory agencies, with VASPs being categorized alongside betting, gaming, adult industry, and money service businesses. If the draft is ultimately approved, it will take effect 15 days after publication, and the BSP is currently seeking public comments.

According to the official webpage, the voting phase for the Solana double deflation proposal has ended, with a voter participation rate of 60.69%. Among the votes, 67% were in favor, the opposition rate was 25.16%, and the abstention rate was 7.84%, with the approval rate reaching the required 2/3 support threshold for passage. The proposal aims to reduce the inflation rate of SOL to about half of its original rate, increasing the deflation rate to 30%. Based on current estimates, this proposal will reduce the issuance of SOL by approximately 18.9 million over the next six years.In addition, the voting phase for the resource and fee inclusion proposal has ended, with a voter participation rate of 61.14%. Among the votes, 53.9% were in favor, the opposition rate was 18.92%, and the abstention rate was 27.18%, with the approval rate not reaching the required 2/3 support threshold for passage. This proposal suggests introducing a transaction fee mechanism based on resource consumption, charging fees according to the network resources consumed by transactions, which is expected to increase the daily burn rate of SOL from the current approximately 650 to between 7500 and 9000.

A Reuters survey shows that most economists believe the Bank of Japan will take action faster than previously expected, and will raise interest rates again in September, with the terminal rate potentially being higher. 57% of economists expect an interest rate hike next month, a significant increase from 5% in July. Ayako Fujita, Chief Economist for Japan at JPMorgan, stated that delaying the rate hike could lead to market turmoil. In addition, more than two-thirds of respondents believe that the recent US-Japan joint foreign exchange intervention has had limited effects.

According to a report by CNBC, the latest research published in the academic journal "Review of Accounting Studies" shows that among U.S. taxpayers holding virtual currencies, the actual proportion of those reporting transactions to the federal government is only 32% to 56%.As the IRS will require intermediaries to submit virtual currency tax forms "Form 1099-DA" starting in 2025, discrepancies between reports from businesses and taxpayer filings will be more easily identified by authorities. In the first year, the form only needs to report total earnings, while the obligation to report cost basis will officially be included starting in 2026.

The Solana community is advancing two governance proposals aimed at reducing the new issuance of SOL and increasing the scale of network fee burns, thereby tightening the token supply. Among them, governance proposal SIMD-0553 suggests introducing a resource consumption-based transaction fee mechanism, charging fees based on the network resources consumed by transactions. It is expected to increase the daily burn of SOL from the current approximately 650 coins (about $47,000) to between 7,500 and 9,000 coins (about $650,000).Another proposal, SIMD-0550, plans to double the rate of decline in SOL's annual inflation, bringing the minimum inflation target of 1.5% forward to 2029 instead of the originally planned 2032. This plan is expected to reduce the issuance of approximately 18.9 million SOL over the next six years, valued at about $1.36 billion at current prices. Currently, both proposals have received support from some validator nodes. As of the latest data, approximately 24.94 million SOL have participated in signaling votes, accounting for 5.8% of the 4.3265 million staked SOL, still about 39.95 million SOL short of the 15% threshold required to enter the formal voting phase. The deadline for supporting signals is August 18.A total of 16 validator nodes have expressed support, with the infrastructure company Helius contributing approximately 16.03 million SOL, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the current support. However, even if SIMD-0553 is successfully implemented, SOL will not immediately enter a deflationary state. Based on a maximum daily burn of 9,000 coins, it is still lower than the current daily new issuance of about 60,000 coins. Therefore, the community is advancing the burn mechanism and the reduction of issuance as linked reforms. If the proposal receives sufficient support from validator nodes, the Solana network will improve its long-term token economic model through a dual mechanism of "reducing new supply + increasing burns."

According to Jinshi reports, the Bank of Korea stated that inflation will exceed the target in the second half of the year, so it is necessary to maintain a tight policy stance.

According to sources cited by the Financial Times, Chinese regulators are considering tightening export controls on AI and semiconductor technology. The Ministry of Commerce has discussed with AI companies such as Alibaba, ByteDance, and Zhipu about restricting the transfer of key data used for model training overseas, as well as limiting foreign users from downloading model weights. However, China will still allow overseas customers to access these models and services. The Ministry of Commerce is also soliciting opinions from various parties on potential restrictive measures, which would prohibit overseas chip manufacturers like Qualcomm and TSMC from producing advanced semiconductors based on designs developed by companies such as Huawei, Alibaba, and ByteDance.Sources indicate that most proposals are still under discussion, and regulators are assessing industry feedback before making a final decision.

According to Cryptonomist, banking groups such as the American Bankers Association and the Independent Community Bankers of America are urging the Senate to further tighten the provisions related to stablecoin yields in the CLARITY Act. Previously, the Senate Banking Committee passed the bill on May 14, 2026, with a vote of 15 to 9, incorporating some amendments pushed by Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks. However, the banking sector believes that the existing text still does not completely close the incentive space for "class yields" related to stablecoins.The Independent Community Bankers of America previously estimated that if the bill does not further strengthen yield restrictions, stablecoins could lead to a loss of approximately $1.3 trillion in deposits from the banking system and reduce the lending capacity of community banks by about $850 billion, thereby affecting credit access for small businesses, agriculture, and families in underdeveloped areas.

According to Jinshi, Jeff, a senior macro strategist at BNY Mellon, pointed out that the softening of U.S. labor data and the improvement in inflation data have reduced the urgency for the Federal Reserve to tighten further. However, he emphasized that this does not address the question of whether the slowdown in growth is within a controllable range or whether policy expectations have been overly adjusted.He stated that the global narrative is becoming less unified, especially in the economic discussions between the U.S. and Europe.

According to Jinshi, Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, stated that liquidity, rather than interest rate hikes, is the main risk facing the U.S. stock market recently. He pointed out that the scale of the reserve management plan has decreased by about 75% from its peak, and the scale of Treasury repurchases has also been reduced by 50%. Wilson expects that the U.S. stock market will be volatile in July and may experience a pullback, with the next leg of the bull market driven by earnings being delayed until after the liquidity constraints are removed.

Against the backdrop of the gradual implementation of the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), Binance's compliance path in the European market remains uncertain. Whether it can continue to serve EU users in the future may depend on the approval progress of French regulatory authorities.After Greek regulators rejected the relevant authorization application, the French Financial Markets Authority (AMF) is seen as a potential key regulatory entry point. However, Binance has not yet formally submitted a complete MiCA license application and is still in the communication phase with multiple national regulatory authorities.Under the MiCA "single license" mechanism, once authorized by any member state, it can cover the EU's 27-country market. Therefore, the approval results from a single country have a decisive impact on the platform's regional business. The EU regulatory authorities maintain a highly cautious attitude towards the compliance risks of large trading platforms, anti-money laundering mechanisms, and systemic financial risks. The progress of relevant approvals will directly affect the reshaping of the European crypto trading landscape.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce an interest rate hike on Thursday, marking the first increase since 2023, in response to the energy price shocks triggered by the conflict in the Middle East. The market widely anticipates that the ECB deposit rate will be raised from 2% to 2.25% to curb the inflationary pressures arising from the constrained energy supply due to the tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.Data shows that the eurozone's inflation rate rose to 3.2% in May, significantly above the central bank's policy target of 2%, with rising energy prices being the main driving factor. This policy adjustment occurs against the backdrop of economic growth pressures in the eurozone, where the economy contracted in the first quarter, and some economists warn that interest rate hikes could further drag down growth and consumer confidence.Analysts point out that the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have not yet synchronized their tightening policies, and the ECB's preemptive action may reflect its greater sensitivity to energy-driven inflation. The market will closely watch President Lagarde's subsequent statements to determine whether a new tightening cycle will be initiated.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Logan stated that the current monetary policy is neutral or even somewhat accommodative, and it is necessary to maintain a mildly tightening policy stance.

It has been reported that banks in the Hong Kong region are tightening account openings. According to informed sources, in accordance with the requirements of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, some banks in the Hong Kong region will start tightening the opening of investment accounts from May 26, including the need to sign paper declarations, but there is currently no impact on savings accounts.

According to Jinshi News, T. Rowe Price Chief U.S. Economist Blerina Uruci stated that the market may still be underestimating the likelihood of the Federal Reserve further tightening its policies.She pointed out that since early May, the duration of the Iran conflict has exceeded expectations, oil prices have risen, and U.S. economic growth has remained resilient. Uruci believes that the probability of the federal funds rate remaining unchanged over the next 12 months is 45%, the probability of a rate hike by the end of the year or early 2027 is 35%, and the probability of a rate cut is 20%.

A recent report from blockchain analysis company Chainalysis points out that compliance standards in the cryptocurrency industry are tightening significantly, with about 47% of organizations entering the market in 2026 having pre-warning standards that can reach the strict levels of the top 10% of the industry in 2020. This indicates that the entire ecosystem is maturing rapidly, with newcomers equipped with more aggressive monitoring measures from the outset.The report shows that companies' "direct monitoring" of funds coming directly from known illegal sources has become consistent and strict, but there is still a significant gap in "indirect monitoring" of funds flowing through intermediary addresses. For example, the indirect risk warning thresholds for categories such as ransomware and fraudulent stores on cryptocurrency trading platforms are often 10 to 100 times higher than direct thresholds. The Chainalysis team points out that this gap between direct and indirect monitoring creates opportunities for illegal actors. Companies that can bridge this gap will not only enhance their regulatory defenses but also distinguish themselves as trustworthy counterparties.The report suggests that this indicates the industry is in a transitional period, having achieved specialization in direct risk management but not yet treating indirect risks with the same rigor. The elevation of industry compliance standards is a response to increasingly stringent regulations and ongoing threats from entities such as North Korean hacker groups. In 2025 alone, hackers linked to North Korea caused approximately $2 billion in cryptocurrency losses.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes show that most participants indicated that if inflation remains above 2%, some policy tightening measures may be necessary.