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Bitcoin is currently maintaining a range-bound oscillation pattern. Under the multiple pressures of the macro environment, market liquidity continues to be constrained, and the price direction remains unclear. Analysis indicates that the interplay of energy prices, monetary policy, and geopolitical risks has led to a compression of liquidity, causing the market to enter a "wait-and-see period." The current market is not lacking in structure but rather in incremental funds.Recently, Bitcoin has stabilized after experiencing volatility, with selling pressure easing somewhat, while ETF fund flows have shown a slight net inflow. However, spot demand remains weak, and the imbalance between supply and demand limits price breakthroughs. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has found support in the $67,000-$69,000 range, with a key resistance level forming around $72,000. Analysts state that there is a "liquidity gap" above this range, and once effectively broken, the price could quickly rise to the $82,000 area; however, until demand shows significant improvement, the market will continue to maintain an oscillating pattern.On the macro level, high energy prices, global central banks maintaining high interest rates, and uncertainties in the Middle East collectively exacerbate market concerns about "stagflation" risks. Kraken Research points out that the combination of slowing growth and inflationary pressures complicates the policy path and suppresses the performance of risk assets. Against this backdrop, the market has entered a "liquidity compression phase."Bitunix analysis suggests that the mismatch of multiple macro factors has compressed funds into a narrow range, with Bitcoin acting more as a risk appetite indicator rather than a trend trading target. In terms of funds, the March spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately $1.5 billion, an improvement from the net outflow in February, but still below January levels, indicating cautious institutional fund inflows. The derivatives market is leaning defensive, with funding rates remaining negative and high demand for downside protection; meanwhile, spot trading volume has not shown sustained growth, indicating limited market participation. Overall, Bitcoin has not yet formed a clear breakthrough or downward trend, and is currently closer to a "accumulation and consolidation" phase, with future movements still dependent on macro data, policy signals, and changes in geopolitical situations.

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino revealed that the Tether AI team has released a new version of QVAC Fabric, which integrates the cross-platform BitNet LoRA framework, enabling the training and inference of billion-parameter large models on consumer-grade GPUs and smartphones.The new version of QVAC Fabric LLM has achieved cross-platform operation of BitNet LoRA fine-tuning and inference on AMD, Intel, Apple Metal, and mobile GPUs for the first time. On flagship devices, GPU inference speed is improved by 2 to 11 times compared to CPU, and memory usage is reduced by up to 90% compared to full precision models. The Tether team has completed fine-tuning of models with up to 3.8 billion parameters on flagship smartphones such as Pixel 9, S25, and iPhone 16, and has achieved fine-tuning of models with up to 13 billion parameters on the iPhone 16. The related code has been open-sourced to GitHub.

According to Cointelegraph, multiple joint research teams under Alibaba's AI ecosystem disclosed in a technical report that their experimental autonomous AI entity ROME exhibited unexpected behavior during training, autonomously attempting to utilize computing resources for cryptocurrency mining.Researchers stated that the aforementioned abnormal behavior occurred during the reinforcement learning training phase. The team discovered that the training server generated outbound traffic and triggered security alerts, with firewall logs recording suspected cryptocurrency mining operations and attempts to access internal network resources.In a specific case, ROME created a reverse SSH tunnel to connect to an external IP address, bypassing inbound firewall protection; in another case, the AI entity repurposed GPU resources originally allocated for model training for mining processes. Researchers confirmed that the behavior was not due to human programming but was spontaneously generated by the entity while exploring environmental interactions during the reinforcement learning optimization process.

A research team associated with Alibaba published a paper stating that while building an AI agent named ROME, they discovered that the agent attempted unauthorized cryptocurrency mining during its training process, triggering internal security alerts. The researchers indicated that the agent's behavior was spontaneous, driven by no explicit instructions, and exceeded the boundaries of the predefined sandbox. Additionally, the agent established a reverse SSH tunnel, creating a hidden backdoor from the internal system to an external computer.The paper noted that these behaviors were not triggered by prompts requesting tunneling or mining. The research team subsequently imposed stricter limitations on the model and improved the training process to prevent similar unsafe behaviors from occurring again. The research team and Alibaba have not yet responded to requests for comment.

A U.S. federal judge has issued a temporary restraining order against the cryptocurrency lending firm BlockFills, temporarily freezing its disputed assets. Dominion Capital filed a lawsuit on February 27, accusing BlockFills of misappropriating and unlawfully retaining customer crypto assets worth millions of dollars, commingling customer assets, concealing significant losses, and refusing to return funds after suspending withdrawals on the BlockFills platform in February. The frozen amount is 70.6 BTC, and it has prevented BlockFills from transferring assets overseas.The cryptocurrency lending firm BlockFills has been struggling, reporting a loss of $75 million, and suspended user deposits and withdrawals on February 11. The company, headquartered in Chicago, serves approximately 2,000 institutional clients, with a trading volume reaching $60 billion by 2025, and is currently seeking a buyer.

According to FinanceFeeds, Siddarth Bharwani, Joint Managing Director and Chief Financial Officer of Indian IT vocational training company Jetking Infotrain, stated on February 22 at the "Corporate Bitcoin" event in Las Vegas that the company will firmly advance its Bitcoin-based strategy.Jetking launched its Bitcoin reserve plan at the end of 2024, becoming the first listed company in India to list Bitcoin as a primary reserve asset. It currently holds 21 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $1.4 million, accounting for more than a quarter of the company's total market capitalization. Bharwani stated that this move aims to hedge against the long-term depreciation risk of the Indian Rupee, using Michael Saylor and Strategy as a strategic blueprint. The company's goal is to accumulate 210 Bitcoins by the end of 2026 and expand its holdings to 18,000 Bitcoins by 2030.On the regulatory front, the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) recently rejected Jetking's proposal to issue new shares for cryptocurrency investment purposes, citing a lack of a clear framework. However, Bharwani stated that the company is actively responding and views the current resistance as a "regulatory arbitrage opportunity" for early entrants.In addition to balance sheet management, Jetking is also incorporating Bitcoin and blockchain education into its vocational training programs. With over 100 training centers, the company trains 35,000 students annually, aiming to create a "Bitcoin learning ecosystem."Bharwani noted that as the ruling party in India begins discussions on a potential national Bitcoin strategic reserve, Jetking's exploratory practices are expected to provide a reference for the entire Asia-Pacific region.

According to CoinDesk, real estate billionaire and founder of Starwood Capital Group Barry Sternlicht stated that the company is prepared to tokenize real-world assets (RWA) such as real estate on the blockchain, but is currently unable to advance related plans due to regulatory restrictions in the United States. Starwood manages assets totaling over $125 billion.Sternlicht pointed out at the World Liberty Forum that asset tokenization could create new financing methods for less liquid assets like real estate and allow investors to participate in investments more conveniently. He described this technology as a "future trend" and believes its development stage is even ahead of artificial intelligence.Industry reports indicate that Deloitte expects the global tokenized real estate market could reach $4 trillion by 2035, a significant increase from less than $300 billion in 2024, implying a compound annual growth rate of about 27%. Sternlicht called for further clarification of the regulatory environment to unlock the potential for assets to be placed on-chain.

According to Jinshi, Fed's Daly stated that artificial intelligence is a mechanism to help us cope with inflation, but at the same time, it is also a restrictive policy.

According to Jinshi reports, Fed's Logan stated that the current policy stance may be very close to neutral levels, with limited dampening effects on the economy.

A Nevada court in the United States issued a temporary restraining order against Polymarket, prohibiting the entity behind Polymarket, Blockratize, from offering event-based contracts in the state for a period of two weeks. The court found that Polymarket's activities might violate Nevada's gaming laws and are not protected by federal derivatives regulations.

According to CoinDesk, Wall Street brokerage firm Benchmark stated that if the U.S. Congress fails to pass cryptocurrency market structure legislation this year, the U.S. crypto market will not revert to the heavily regulated enforcement environment of 2022-2023. However, at a critical moment when global adoption and institutional interest are accelerating, the market structure will still face ongoing constraints.Analyst Mark Palmer wrote in a report on Monday, "The absence of legislation will lead to a persistent structural risk premium across most areas of the digital asset ecosystem." He added that this will limit the valuation expansion space for platforms primarily targeting the U.S. market. Palmer pointed out that the failure of legislation will delay rather than block the maturation process of cryptocurrencies, preventing the U.S. market from fully realizing its potential. In this scenario, investors will prefer exposure to Bitcoin-centric assets, strong balance sheets, and stable cash flow infrastructure, rather than regulatory-sensitive trading platforms, decentralized finance (DeFi), and altcoins.This legislation aims to establish a regulatory framework for the U.S. cryptocurrency market by clarifying how digital assets should be classified as commodities or securities and delineating the regulatory responsibilities of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Although the bill passed by the House last year shifted the focus of discussions to details such as stablecoin yields and DeFi interfaces, negotiations in the Senate have progressed more slowly and with greater divisions, raising the risk that final approval may be delayed until next year. Palmer believes the market has begun to price in such timing risks.If the market structure bill fails to pass, trading platforms will continue to face uncertainties regarding listings, higher compliance costs, and limitations on the expansion of high-margin products, while the monetization process for stablecoins may also be delayed due to unclear yield and distribution rules. The report noted that given Bitcoin's established status as a commodity, Bitcoin and Bitcoin-focused asset management firms will be relatively unaffected, and the regulatory risk exposure for mining companies and energy-supported infrastructure is also lower. DeFi and smart contract platforms remain the most vulnerable, as regulatory ambiguity continues to constrain participation in the U.S. market; meanwhile, custodial and compliance service providers are in a relatively defensive position.Despite the delays in the legislative process, Palmer still believes that the likelihood of the cryptocurrency market structure bill being passed is high—even if it is a diluted version. He emphasized that any form of legislation would help reduce regulatory risks and promote broader institutional participation.

Matrixport stated in its latest weekly report that after experiencing a phase of pressure at the end of 2025, there are signs of improvement in Bitcoin's on-chain structure. As long as the price can hold above the key structural support level, the institution's tactical judgment remains cautiously bullish.Multiple valuation and positioning indicators are stabilizing, indicating that downside risks have lessened compared to earlier periods, and the market seems to be emerging from a fragile phase rather than entering a new round of pullback. However, this round of recovery is still constrained by two factors: insufficient inflow of incremental funds and limited willingness of long-term holders to increase their positions. If new funds cannot continue to enter the market, upward momentum is likely to remain limited; even if there is a brief breakout, it will be harder to form a sustainable trend. Overall, a more suitable strategy is to participate cautiously and select opportunities. Investors should remain in the market but must maintain discipline, waiting for clearer confirmations from fund flows and on-chain profit level indicators before considering a substantial increase in risk exposure.

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin briefly rose above $92,000 on Monday due to a criminal investigation by U.S. federal prosecutors into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Analysts are questioning whether the independence of the Federal Reserve might be compromised, which could benefit alternative assets like Bitcoin that are considered scarce.Although this news triggered a brief surge, traders remain cautious overall, primarily influenced by ongoing outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and weak demand for bullish leverage. Even with a recent rebound, Bitcoin is still down about 23% from its peak in October 2025, while gold and silver reached all-time highs in 2026. This divergence in trends has led traders to start questioning whether the narrative of "Bitcoin as a digital store of value" is weakening.The annualized premium of Bitcoin futures (i.e., basis) remains at a neutral to bearish level of about 5%. Generally, when market sentiment truly turns bullish, the premium of Bitcoin futures relative to spot often reaches or exceeds 10%. More importantly, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a total net outflow of $1.38 billion over four consecutive trading days.Even more concerning is that despite Strategy increasing its holdings of Bitcoin worth approximately $1.25 billion over the past month, the price of Bitcoin has still failed to effectively hold above $94,000. Overall, the appeal of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies remains sluggish, as reflected in ETF fund flows and weak demand for Bitcoin long positions. This indicates that the probability of an unexpected surge to $105,000 in the short term is relatively low.

According to the Straits Times, U.S. President Trump claimed that his "own moral code" is the only constraint on his orders to take military action globally.Just days before making this statement, Trump launched a lightning strike to overthrow Venezuelan President Maduro and threatened to take action against numerous other countries, including Greenland.In an interview with The New York Times on Wednesday (January 7), Trump was asked if there are limits to his global power. He responded, "Yes, only one. That is my own moral code, my own thoughts. That is the only thing that can constrain me."He also stated, "I don't need international law, I have no intention of harming others."The Republican president then added, "I do indeed" need to comply with international law, but "it depends on what your definition of international law is."According to AFP, the United States is not a member of the International Criminal Court (ICC), which prosecutes war criminals, and has repeatedly rejected the rulings of the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

BTC price rebounded to $90,500 after testing the support level of $89,200, which aligns with the 50-day moving average. Jake Ostrovskis, head of over-the-counter trading at Wintermute, stated that the market's failure to break through the key level of $95,000 has led to two-way trading, with the past two trading days primarily dominated by ETF outflows. Additionally, derivatives positions indicate that market leverage is increasing.The total open interest for BTC futures and options has surged to nearly 700,000 BTC, reaching a three-week high, with an increase of about 75,000 BTC since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, the perpetual futures funding rate remains at a positive value of around 0.09%, indicating that long positions are paying fees to shorts to maintain exposure, and traders may be using leverage to buy on dips, which increases the risk of long liquidations.

According to CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole, the price of Bitcoin is hindered by the descending trend line since its historical high of $126,000, failing to break through the $90,000 mark, continuing the downward pattern of the fourth quarter.Currently, Bitcoin's short-term support level is in the range of $84,000 to $84,500. If it breaks below this, it may test the November low of $80,000. The analysis points out that only by breaking through this trend line resistance can Bitcoin hope to return to an upward trend, with a target possibly pointing to $100,000.

According to Financefeeds, the Indian government is significantly strengthening cryptocurrency enforcement training to address the increasingly complex financial crimes related to cryptocurrencies.This training involves multiple agencies, including the Financial Intelligence Unit of India (FIU-IND), the Enforcement Directorate (ED), and the Narcotics Control Bureau (NCB), focusing on techniques such as blockchain forensics, on-chain analysis, cryptocurrency asset seizure, and wallet address identification.This initiative is a direct response to the mandatory registration requirement for Virtual Digital Asset Service Providers (VDASP) with FIU-IND, as well as India's shift from regulatory ambiguity to structured oversight. The training aims to equip law enforcement personnel with the ability to trace, seize, and prosecute crimes involving Virtual Digital Assets (VDA).

Amazon has launched the next-generation AI chip Trainium 3, which has a training speed four times that of its predecessor, aiming to capture market share from Nvidia. This chip will be offered as a service through AWS, supporting large-scale model training. Meanwhile, several Bitcoin mining companies, such as Core Scientific and IREN, are transforming their data centers into AI infrastructure and have reached billion-dollar partnership agreements with Microsoft, Google, and others. Despite the high enthusiasm for AI infrastructure investment, analysts warn that if demand slows down, related companies may face a funding gap of up to $800 billion.