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According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Kashkari stated that as the shadow of war looms over the outlook, the Federal Reserve can choose to wait and see.

According to Coindesk, blockchain analysis company Chainalysis stated that Iran's cryptocurrency ecosystem will reach $7.78 billion by 2025, with a growth rate surpassing the previous year.Iran legalized cryptocurrency mining in 2019, allowing licensed operators to use subsidized electricity and sell the mined bitcoins to the central bank. Recent estimates indicate that Iran accounts for between 2% and 5% of the global Bitcoin mining hash rate. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as the country's main military force, has since deepened its influence in the cryptocurrency sector.Chainalysis estimates that by the fourth quarter of 2025, addresses associated with the IRGC will account for over 50% of Iran's total cryptocurrency inflows, with amounts received last year exceeding $3 billion. Another analysis by Elliptic found that the Central Bank of Iran had accumulated at least $507 million in USDT by 2025, which could help stabilize the rial exchange rate and facilitate trade. However, this effort has largely failed, with data showing that the rial has depreciated by over 96% against the dollar. Meanwhile, ordinary Iranians have begun to turn to Bitcoin. During recent protests and internet outages, the amount of Bitcoin withdrawn from local exchanges to personal wallets surged dramatically.

The world's largest stablecoin Tether (USDT) saw its market capitalization decline by 0.8% this month to $18.361 billion, continuing a trend of falling approximately 1% from its historical high of $18.684 billion, which may record a second consecutive month of contraction. This marks the first occurrence of consecutive monthly shrinkage since the collapse of TerraForm Labs in 2022, and is seen as a signal of tightening market liquidity.Analysts point out that stablecoins are the "liquidity fuel" of the crypto market, and a contraction in their supply typically indicates net outflows of funds. Against this backdrop, demand for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs remains sluggish, leading to a cautious assessment of the sustainability of any rebound. In terms of price, Bitcoin has failed to gain sustained momentum since it stopped falling around $60,000 on February 6, although it briefly rebounded above $70,000, it has now retreated to oscillate around the $65,000 range.Meanwhile, another major stablecoin, USD Coin (USDC), has seen its market capitalization rise from a low of $70 billion in January to about $75 billion, but overall growth for the year has stagnated, indicating a simultaneous slowdown in the expansion momentum of major stablecoins. Market participants believe that if the supply of stablecoins does not expand again, the overall recovery of the crypto market will still face liquidity constraints.

The latest report from blockchain analysis company Elliptic points out that a cryptocurrency exchange related to Russia, known as the "shadow network," is assisting in evading international sanctions through large-scale cryptocurrency transactions and names five platforms, most of which have not yet been sanctioned and still provide Russian entities with funding channels to bypass traditional banking regulations. Among them, ABCeX is identified as the largest, having processed at least $11 billion in cryptocurrency transactions.The report also notes that although Exmo claims to have exited the Russian market, on-chain data shows that it still shares custodial wallet infrastructure; Rapira, registered in Georgia and with an office in Moscow, is said to have direct transactions exceeding $72 million with the sanctioned exchange Grinex; Bitpapa evades monitoring by frequently changing wallet addresses; and Aifory Pro provides cash-to-crypto exchange services in Moscow, Dubai, and Turkey.Analysis indicates that the previously targeted cryptocurrency-related sanction evasion infrastructure in Russia has not disappeared but has instead dispersed across more platforms.

Renowned analyst Willy Woo stated on the X platform that the 12-year valuation trend of Bitcoin relative to gold has recently been broken. BTC's relative valuation should be higher, but in reality, it has not been achieved, mainly due to a market awakening to the risks of quantum computing, leading to early pricing of potential issues.Bitcoin is likely to be patched in the future through quantum-resistant signatures, but this does not solve the problem of approximately 4 million "lost" BTC (early lost private keys may be cracked by quantum computers) re-entering circulation. Willy Woo estimates a 75% probability that these lost Bitcoins will not be frozen through a protocol hard fork, so the market needs to account for the selling pressure of 4 million coins in advance.Since MicroStrategy began accumulating BTC in 2020, the total accumulation by enterprises and ETFs is only 2.8 million BTC. These 4 million lost tokens are equivalent to 8 years of corporate accumulation, which will result in serious supply dilution. Before "Q-Day" (the day quantum computing threats materialize, expected in 5-15 years), BTC prices will continue to be affected by this cloud of uncertainty.

According to Jinshi News, Louis Navellier, Chief Investment Officer of the fund management company Navellier, pointed out in a report that the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting this week may soon be overshadowed by the fact that U.S. President Trump will nominate a new Federal Reserve Chair in the coming weeks. Navellier expects that the new chair will require Senate confirmation, which will spark intense debates around inflation issues.He analyzed that a serious risk of deflation is brewing, which may force the Federal Reserve to lower the key interest rate by at least 1%.

Analyst Serenity revealed that, based on publicly available information, the Maduro regime in Venezuela has accumulated a shadow reserve of over $60 billion in Bitcoin and USDT, established since 2018 through gold swaps and demands for oil exports to be settled in USDT to evade sanctions.Previously, due to the failure of Venezuela's oil-backed cryptocurrency experiment, the Maduro regime turned to USDT as an alternative to oil dollars during crude oil sales. As they realized that USDT still has the capability to freeze addresses, Venezuela began converting USDT into Bitcoin.The estimated holdings of Venezuela can be summarized as follows: Bitcoin accumulated through gold swaps from 2018 to 2020, with gold revenues converted to Bitcoin at an average price of $5,000, currently valued at approximately $45 billion to $50 billion; Bitcoin obtained from oil exports from 2023 to 2025, currently valued at about $10 billion to $15 billion; Bitcoin seized from mining operations from 2023 to 2024, approximately $500 million. Overall, the total value of BTC accumulated by Venezuela from 2018 to 2026 is estimated to be around $56 billion to $67 billion, implying a Bitcoin quantity exceeding 660,000, with a minimum of 600,000.Even if Maduro is currently arrested, it does not mean that the U.S. has completely taken control of these Bitcoins. A significant trial surrounding Maduro will unfold next, reshaping the global Bitcoin market landscape.

According to Jinshi, U.S. stock analyst Hannah Erin Lang stated that the major U.S. stock indices slipped into the red after a significant gap up, with momentum quickly fading. Reasons include that the boost from artificial intelligence seems short-lived, and the information technology sector is leading the decline in the S&P 500 index. In addition, market concerns about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December and ongoing risk aversion are also putting pressure on the market.

According to CoinDesk, the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) has released a series of investigative reports titled "Coin Laundry," revealing a vast cryptocurrency crime finance network.The report shows that illegal funds are laundered through major cryptocurrency exchanges. The tracked cryptocurrency funds are linked to global criminal groups, including North Korean hackers, human trafficking activities by Chinese and Russian crime syndicates, fentanyl and other drug trafficking, the Sinaloa drug cartel in Mexico, and "cryptocurrency cash-out shops" operating in Ukraine and Dubai.ICIJ Executive Director Gerard Ryle stated that the investigation reveals how criminal forces exploit the cryptocurrency market to transfer illegal cash in plain sight, questioning the complicity of major cryptocurrency exchanges in facilitating criminal activities.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, U.S. stock index futures fell sharply on Friday, as concerns about risk and deteriorating credit quality intensified, triggering a sell-off in regional banks and further undermining investor confidence. Saxo Markets strategist Neil Wilson stated that although these may be isolated incidents, concerns about bad loans and poor credit are increasing, coupled with worries about trade wars and the risks of an artificial intelligence bubble, leading to a risk-off mode to end the week.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Wall Street Journal, Trump is increasingly dissatisfied with the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts, prompting him to consider announcing his choice for the next Federal Reserve chair earlier. Currently, the term of the incumbent chair, Powell, has 11 months remaining. According to informed sources, in recent weeks, Trump has been contemplating whether to select and announce Powell's successor as early as September or October of this year. Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell may even lead him to make this decision earlier this summer. The candidates Trump is considering include former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh and National Economic Council Director Hassett.Additionally, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has also been recommended by supporters of both as a potential candidate. Other possible nominees include former World Bank President Malpass and current Federal Reserve Governor Waller. Since the new Federal Reserve chair will not officially take office until May next year, announcing a candidate this summer or fall would be far earlier than the usual three to four months transition period. This early announcement could allow the nominee to influence market expectations regarding future interest rate paths. (Jin Shi)