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According to Jinshi reports, the interest rate swap market shows a dovish shift, with current pricing indicating that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 15 basis points in December.

Despite Bitcoin rising to $76,300 at one point this week, market sentiment remains low, with the Fear and Greed Index still in the "extreme fear" range at 21, indicating a clear divergence between price and sentiment. Institutional views suggest that this round of increases is more akin to "valuation repair" rather than a trend reversal. QCP Capital referred to it as a "relief rally," as macro-level inflation, energy, and policy pressures have not fully dissipated.Glassnode pointed out that Bitcoin is still about 5% lower than the key resistance level of the "real market average" at approximately $78,100, and the current rebound has limited depth. The funding structure is also showing divergence. Spot demand and ETF fund flows have warmed up, but profit-taking has increased, and institutional participation remains cautious, with the derivatives market continuing to lean towards downward hedging. Exchange data also shows that demand is more from offshore and retail funds rather than dominated by U.S. institutions. Analysts state that around $75,000 has become a key support/validation level. If subsequent buying cannot sustain, the price may retreat to the range of $70,000 to $71,000.On the macro front, U.S. stocks continue to hit new highs, and oil prices remain high but have not surged further, which has warmed market risk appetite but still carries uncertainty. The market's focus is shifting towards the Federal Reserve's policy path, and the overall environment still poses constraints on crypto assets. In summary, while Bitcoin maintains its rebound, it oscillates near resistance levels, and the market tone remains cautious, with no consistent bullish trend formed yet.

According to market news, Xiaomi miclaw has officially passed the evaluation by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology's mobile intelligent assistant (Claw), becoming the first mobile intelligent agent in the country to pass this review.This evaluation was conducted based on the "General Framework for Intelligent Assistant Benchmark Testing," strictly assessing three major dimensions: basic capabilities, edge-side applications, and comprehensive capabilities. It is reported that Xiaomi miclaw relies on Xiaomi MiMo's self-developed large model, possessing four major capabilities: full ecological underlying support, deep memory, cross-domain interconnection, and continuous self-evolution, enabling it to connect mobile phones, PCs, cockpits, and AIoT devices to autonomously execute complex commands.

According to Jin Shi's report, UBS's research indicates that the Federal Reserve is still on a path of further easing. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently downplayed the necessity of tightening monetary policy due to rising energy prices, emphasizing that policymakers typically "ignore" supply shocks such as soaring oil prices.UBS expects that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points later this year and believes that U.S. Treasury yields have ample room to decline, with year-end targets of 3.25% for the 2-year Treasury yield and 3.75% for the 10-year Treasury yield.

Blockstream CEO Adam Back stated that Bitcoin should adopt an optional quantum-resistant upgrade scheme, rather than the mandatory freezing of tokens at risk from quantum threats proposed in BIP-361.The BIP-361 proposal suggests phasing out addresses vulnerable to quantum attacks over five years and ultimately freezing un-migrated tokens, including assets held by Satoshi Nakamoto. Google's latest research indicates that a superconducting qubit system may need fewer than 500,000 physical qubits to crack Bitcoin encryption in just a few minutes. Currently, about 6.9 million BTC are at risk from such threats. In response to the quantum threat, BitMEX Research proposed establishing a canary fund that would implement a full freeze only when expenditures occur from the relevant addresses.

According to market news, Blockstream CEO Adam Back stated at the Paris Blockchain Week that he supports the optional advancement of Bitcoin's quantum resistance upgrade and opposes the proposal to forcibly freeze quantum-vulnerable addresses. He emphasized that "preparation is much safer than hasty responses in a crisis" and pointed out that the Bitcoin community has the coordination ability to respond quickly to urgent vulnerabilities.Previously, the BIP-361 proposal ("Post-Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset") put forward by developers Jameson Lopp and five others advocated for the gradual elimination of quantum-vulnerable addresses over five years, ultimately freezing coins that have not completed migration— including approximately 1.7 million Bitcoins held by Satoshi Nakamoto.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is currently hovering around $75,000, facing supply pressure, but institutional demand remains stable.Market sentiment is boosted by news of the extended ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. The dollar has fallen to a near six-week low, and U.S. Treasury yields have also declined, conditions that typically support cryptocurrency prices; gold has risen in tandem, indicating that the market is seeking a balance between risk appetite and safe-haven demand.On-chain data shows that when prices reach a key cost benchmark for short-term holders, Bitcoin often experiences a supply surge. This level is around $76,800, which could constitute significant resistance, at which point investors may choose to take profits when breaking even.The newly established MSBT fund under Morgan Stanley has quickly attracted over $100 million in inflows due to the market's lowest fee rates, prompting competitors like Goldman Sachs to initiate a new round of competition.Meanwhile, the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and Iran's threats to disrupt shipping in the Persian Gulf continue to cast a shadow over the global economic outlook. The impact on energy supply has begun to raise inflation expectations, which may influence central bank policy direction and, in turn, affect the cryptocurrency market.

According to official news, the HTX Genesis Hackathon, hosted by HTX DAO and B.AI, and co-hosted by TinTinLand and OpenCity, will kick off on April 21 in Hong Kong. This event will deeply focus on the "AI x Web3" track and is expected to attract over 100 participating teams and more than 400 core developers. At that time, prominent guests such as Huobi HTX global advisor Sun Yuchen and HTX DAO ambassador Molly will attend to discuss the trends of the integration and evolution of AI and Web3, as well as the direction of its industrialization. In addition, during the event, the HTX ecological empowerment plan will also be launched, providing up to $10 million in grant funding for outstanding projects, along with comprehensive support including listing, traffic, technology, and incubation, to help quality projects accelerate their landing and growth.

According to CoinDesk, Blockstream CEO Adam Back stated at Paris Blockchain Week that Bitcoin developers should advance optional quantum-resistant upgrades as early as possible, even though practical quantum computers are still far from being realized.He pointed out that Taproot's flexible design can support the introduction of new quantum-resistant signature schemes without affecting existing users. Previously, Jameson Lopp and others proposed BIP - 361, which aims to gradually phase out addresses vulnerable to quantum attacks within 5 years and freeze Bitcoin that has not completed migration. Adam Back believes that the Bitcoin community can quickly coordinate responses in emergencies without the need for pre-established freezing arrangements.

The ETH/BTC exchange rate has risen to a 10-week high, with Ethereum's recent performance outperforming Bitcoin. This ratio has broken through the resistance level of a downward trend line since 2025 and is above the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages.XWIN Research points out that the employee statement released by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission explains that DeFi front-end and wallet interfaces do not need to register as broker-dealers under conditions such as non-custodial and neutral fee structures, which has boosted Ethereum's strength. On-chain data shows an upward trend in active addresses, and the Coinbase premium gap is also improving, indicating that U.S. institutional demand is recovering.Enterprise-level accumulation is accelerating, with Bitmine increasing its holdings by 279,000 ETH in the past 30 days, currently holding 4.87 million ETH, accounting for over 4% of the circulating supply. In the futures market, global ETH open interest has reached $16.37 billion, with the funding rate still negative, indicating that shorts are dominant. However, open interest on Binance has increased by 10.47% to $6.04 billion, and the funding rate has turned positive, creating an extreme imbalance between global shorts and Binance longs.

According to market news, boosted by the strength of technology stocks and optimistic expectations that the conflict between the United States and Iran may ease, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose to 24,016.02 points on Wednesday, up 1.59%; the S&P 500 Index rose to 7,022.95 points, up 0.8%, both reaching all-time highs.During the same period, Bitcoin briefly touched $75,229, rising 1.07% in 24 hours and nearly 10% over the past two weeks. Reports cited Fundstrat Chief Investment Officer Tom Lee's view that the next phase of the rally may be driven by Bitcoin, Ether, and technology stocks.

Bitcoin rose to about $74,935 during the Asian session, up 0.7% in the last 24 hours and 5.4% for the week. However, the derivatives market is sending mixed signals. Institutional firm QCP Capital pointed out that this round of increase is mainly driven by spot trading, rather than a broad recovery in risk appetite.Currently, the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains negative, and open interest has decreased, indicating that short sellers are still increasing hedges rather than passively closing positions. The options market is also leaning towards caution: short-term implied volatility is sluggish, with one-month volatility lower than three-month volatility, and the risk reversal indicator shows that the market's demand for downside protection is higher than for upside bets, indicating that traders are more inclined to pay for potential declines rather than chase upward movements. QCP believes this is more of a "bounce" rather than a trend reversal.On a macro level, long-term U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices have not confirmed a recovery in risk appetite, with gold still near high levels, indicating that safe-haven demand remains. Institutions point out that the current market is more driven by expectations of a ceasefire and "emotional repair," rather than a core risk being alleviated. Additionally, Ethereum has shown relatively strong performance, with the ETH/BTC ratio rising to about 0.0315, combined with on-chain transaction volumes and stablecoin supply reaching all-time highs, indicating signs of capital rotating towards high β assets. However, the market still needs to observe the evolution of subsequent risk events to confirm the sustainability of this round of increase.

According to analyst Alicharts, Bitcoin is at a critical turning point. Bitcoin is testing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance level, marking its third test in six months. The previous two tests ended in failure: in October last year, Bitcoin faced rejection, leading to a 30% drop from $116,000 to $80,000. In January, Bitcoin similarly faced rejection, resulting in a 39% drop from $97,000 to $59,800.Alicharts warns that a third rejection here would represent a significant structural failure. It could trigger a triple top effect, potentially pushing Bitcoin's price back to the annual low of $59,800. If BTC can ultimately break through this barrier and close above the 100-day SMA, then the upper limit will be breached. A breakout here would open a direct path to $80,000 - $84,000, confirming that the macro adjustment may have ended.

According to analyst Darkfost, Bitcoin has experienced a net outflow from CEX almost every day for the past two months, indicating a trend of accumulation among investors.This type of structural outflow is often seen as a positive signal of reduced selling pressure, especially during the current price consolidation phase, which may indicate that the selling power is exhausted, while also suggesting that Bitcoin is being transferred from CEX to long-term holding wallets.

According to Cointelegraph, after a recent rebound, Ethereum's price has stabilized above $2,300, with ETH futures open interest increasing to $25.4 billion, indicating a rise in demand for leveraged positions.Meanwhile, Ethereum spot ETFs listed in the U.S. have seen a net inflow of $248 million over the past 10 days, and Bitmine Immersion has also disclosed the purchase of $312 million worth of ETH. However, the funding rate for ETH perpetual contracts has failed to remain above 5% and has repeatedly fallen below 0, reflecting limited market confidence in this round of increases. Additionally, Ethereum's weekly DApp revenue has dropped from $24 million in early February to $11 million, and weakened network activity along with intensified competition among public chains may continue to affect ETH's trend.

According to a report by CryptoSlate, the White House Economic Advisory Council recently released a research report indicating that banning the yield on stablecoins has very limited protective effects on bank loans, yet it significantly reduces consumers' ability to earn returns through digital cash. This conclusion directly challenges the core argument of the banking industry supporting the yield ban and provides new policy backing for the advancement of the CLARITY Act.Currently, Treasury Secretary Bessent and SEC Chair Atkins have both publicly expressed support for the bill, indicating a convergence of positions between the executive branch and regulatory agencies. However, the Senate Banking Committee has yet to announce a timeline for the bill's review, and political maneuvering remains the biggest variable.Analysts point out that if the committee can complete its review before the summer recess, the probability of the bill passing will significantly increase; otherwise, it will face the dual risks of election pressure and legislative delays.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the number of large transfers sent to exchanges by wholecoiners (investors holding at least 1 full BTC) has significantly decreased.Currently, the average monthly transfer volume of this type on Binance is only about 6,000 BTC, comparable to levels in 2018, and far below the 15,400 BTC seen in 2021. Globally, the transfer volume has dropped from a peak of 80,000 BTC in 2018 to about 27,500 BTC.Darkfost pointed out that this trend is partly due to the continuous rise in Bitcoin prices making it increasingly difficult to hold full BTC, and it also reflects a profound change in market structure: products like ETFs allow investors to gain exposure without directly holding BTC, while more and more investors are shifting to long-term holding strategies.He believes this means that selling pressure has eased, but it has also led to a gradual decline in the liquidity of Bitcoin supply on exchanges.

According to market news, Bitcoin has risen 8% in the past two weeks, currently reported around $74,000. Max Kahn, CEO of Digital Wealth Partners, pointed out that the next round of Bitcoin's rise depends on three key factors: first, the trend of energy-driven inflation data; second, expectations of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. If inflation is controlled and the market shifts to expectations of easing, it will directly benefit risk assets like Bitcoin; third, the continuous inflow of institutional funds. In April, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $523 million, continuing the strong performance since March.